2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

Are you saying that the GOP would try to impeach Trump so they can run Pence in the next 90 days? I can't even begin to fathom how that would work. There isn't even time for the House to hold impeachment hearings let alone the Senate conduct a trial.

It sounds more like wishful thinking on the part of some Republican operatives who see depressing polls on a daily basis than something that is based in any kind of reality.

-Jason "I've said before that voter apathy on the part of Republicans who see this election as a losing one could become a major issue for the party... this kind of talk does not help that one bit" Evans

Dudog says:

Plus, there is a significant portion of the R voting public that will go down with the Trump ship. Their opportunity to jettison Trump and mend R fences passed quite some time ago.

[JasonEvans]

Trump has done a sit-down interview with Axios that appears to be even more contentious and challenging than the one he did with Chris Wallace a couple weeks ago. The interview will air on Sunday but Axios has been leaking clips for a couple days. The first snippet they put out a couple days ago was Trump saying he did not bring up the bounty on American soldiers when he spoke to Putin. Today, Axios put out a trailer that is really raising eyebrows.

[Bob Green]

Emerson College, rated A- by 538, released a poll yesterday showing Biden leading Trump 50 to 46. Four points is not a lot so this election might be tighter than suspected.

[JasonEvans]

Emerson College, rated A- by 538, released a poll yesterday showing Biden leading Trump 50 to 46. Four points is not a lot so this election might be tighter than suspected.

When looking at pollsters who do multiple polls, it is helpful to see how the individual polls change. Yes, Emerson's July poll finds the race at 4 points. But, that is exactly the same as their June poll. Emerson has consistently found the race closer than other pollsters so they are not showing any meaningful movement toward Trump. In essence, this poll merely confirms what virtually every other poll has been saying for a while which is that the race today is really not all that different from what it was like a month ago.

So, if that is the case, we are faced with the question of whether Emerson is correct and the race is reasonably close (4 points) or if the vast majority of other national and state polls are correct and Trump is down more like 7-10 points. It is possible that Emerson has found some fundamental flaw in everyone else's polling methodology and Trump is only down by 4 points. But, the bottom line is that this Emerson poll does not represent something that is a change in the race. It merely shows things today are what they have been for a while. The only question is whether you think Emerson has a better picture of the race than the other pollsters.

-Jason " as a reminder, you can PM me or email me at DBRPolitics at gmail dot com if you want to reply to this thread" Evans

[JasonEvans]

The NYTimes On Politics newsletter had an interesting nugget today:

Trump spent $4.7 million on TV ads this past week... and $4.2 million on Facebook ads. Think Trump knows where to find his people?
Biden spent $11.8 million on TV ads this past week... and $800,000 on Facebook.

Interesting that the two campaigns seem to be looking for voters in different places. This may be a reflection on Biden wanting to turn out a lot of voters while Trump has apparently been focused on a base-only strategy for a long time. Trump wants to make sure his people come out and hopes that the other side doesn't bother to show up.

[JasonEvans]

After a few days off, I am reopening the thread to instant posting. I again urge folks to please please please avoid any post that is in any way partisan.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I recognize the NC history of leaning republican but is it really a surprise that the polling is so tight right now in light of the pandemic AND the fact that so many northeasterners have migrated to NC in recent years? I don’t know any way to quantify the impact of migration from northeast states but there sure are a lot more high quality pizza options around here these days!

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/89720...over-270-votes

edit: adding link to in-migration analysis that I was apparently too lazy to research five minutes ago... https://www.ncdemography.org/2019/10...s-moving-from/

[Devilwin]

Haven't met a pizza yet I would trade for bbq...lol

[nmduke2001]

I recognize the NC history of leaning republican but is it really a surprise that the polling is so tight right now in light of the pandemic AND the fact that so many northeasterners have migrated to NC in recent years? I don’t know any way to quantify the impact of migration from northeast states but there sure are a lot more high quality pizza options around here these days!

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/89720...over-270-votes

edit: adding link to in-migration analysis that I was apparently too lazy to research five minutes ago... https://www.ncdemography.org/2019/10...s-moving-from/

About 5 years ago, BBC created a series called, "How we go to now". It was fascinating. It showed how early technological advancements made huge impacts on modern society. They have an episode called "Cold". This episodes shows how an ice chest made food transport possible. Then the "ice-box" made food storage possible. Finally, air conditioning made living in the south possible. It explores how the population of the south has exploded since AC has become a viable option for all. Surprisingly, the northerners that moved south have mostly assimilated to southern culture and political views (at least according to the show). The ramifications are huge because the population is growing and creating a larger "southern" voting block while also reducing the voting block of the north from which they came.

The whole "How we got to now" series is great. I think it is currently watchable on Prime and you can still find it in on the PBC website to stream from time to time. I highly recommend it.

[JasonEvans]

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/89720...over-270-votes

Having nothing to do with migration, the link shared by Dr. Rosenrosen (love the Fletch reference there!) contains NPR's electoral map projections. Worth looking at:



They've got Biden over 270 EVs without even factoring the toss-up states (Wisc, Ga, Ohio, Az, and NC). Biden crosses the 270 threshold exclusively because they now have Florida in the Lean D column. Since their last update in mid-June, NPR has shifted Florida, Penn, New Hamp, and Nevada from toss-up to Lean D. They have also shifted Georgia from Lead D to toss-up.

Meanwhile, the Economist has also updated their electoral projections. They do it a bit differently involving their computer model and various percentages.



The Economist currently estimates Biden will win 347 electoral votes to 191 for Trump. They don't mean that to be an exact figure, just a mid-range estimate of how many EVs they see the two candidates getting on average. This is actually down from their high water mark for Biden, which was July 18th when they forecast him to win 357 EVs.

[budwom]

Fascinating article in the latest New Yorker about the Dems' use of Simulmatics in the 1960 election, the first major attempt to model the voting habits of the electorate, computer simulations, all of that...primitive by today's standards, but they had a huge influence on specific Kennedy positions, including religion and civil rights...it's written by Harvard prof Jill Lepore:https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ted-the-future

[JasonEvans]

So, College Insights does a weekly poll of 1500 college students across the country. It is hardly a good indicator of the state of the election (news flash: college students tend to be more liberal than their parents) but there are some aspects of it that seem to be useful.

This week, the poll finds:

Biden 68%
Trump 19%
Other/Third-Party 7%
Not Voting 7%

Those numbers are not all that different from recent weeks. In fact, the biggest movement lately seems to be in the number of college kids who say they will vote 3rd party or not vote at all, with those numbers coming down 3 percentage points in the past few weeks. Third-party candidates are always more popular with young folks who are not as entrenched into the 2-party system, but their decline in popularity in this poll may be significant. If folks are honing in on the candidates who have a chance and not paying as much attention to other options it is significant. Don't forget that in 2016 third party candidates (Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Evan McMullen) took 5.7% of the vote. Contrast that with 2012 (1.7%), 2008 (1.4%), 2004 (1%), and even 2000 (3.7%). If we get back to 1-2% voting third party in this election it could have a meaningful impact on the race.

And this is where Biden being the "he is fine" candidate without high unlikable numbers becomes an increasingly important factor.

-Jason "this is why Trump is reportedly going to release a new series of ads this week that will attempt to redefine Biden's image" Evans

[jimsumner]

I recognize the NC history of leaning republican but is it really a surprise that the polling is so tight right now in light of the pandemic AND the fact that so many northeasterners have migrated to NC in recent years? I don’t know any way to quantify the impact of migration from northeast states but there sure are a lot more high quality pizza options around here these days!

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/89720...over-270-votes

edit: adding link to in-migration analysis that I was apparently too lazy to research five minutes ago... https://www.ncdemography.org/2019/10...s-moving-from/

More than a few demographers think North Carolina is about a decade behind Virginia in making the transition to reliably blue. This could be the R's last chance to carry NC for awhile.

As an aside, battleground state, with a key U.S. Senate seat up for grabs and control of the NC legislature up for grabs in a census year, well let's just say the combination of TV ads, phone calls, internet, even that old-fashioned mailbox thing and it's a a bit much. I even get tired of ads supporting the candidates I support.

[budwom]

So, College Insights does a weekly poll of 1500 college students across the country. It is hardly a good indicator of the state of the election (news flash: college students tend to be more liberal than their parents) but there are some aspects of it that seem to be useful.

This week, the poll finds:

Biden 68%
Trump 19%
Other/Third-Party 7%
Not Voting 7%

Those numbers are not all that different from recent weeks. In fact, the biggest movement lately seems to be in the number of college kids who say they will vote 3rd party or not vote at all, with those numbers coming down 3 percentage points in the past few weeks. Third-party candidates are always more popular with young folks who are not as entrenched into the 2-party system, but their decline in popularity in this poll may be significant. If folks are honing in on the candidates who have a chance and not paying as much attention to other options it is significant. Don't forget that in 2016 third party candidates (Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Evan McMullen) took 5.7% of the vote. Contrast that with 2012 (1.7%), 2008 (1.4%), 2004 (1%), and even 2000 (3.7%). If we get back to 1-2% voting third party in this election it could have a meaningful impact on the race.

And this is where Biden being the "he is fine" candidate without high unlikable numbers becomes an increasingly important factor.

-Jason "this is why Trump is reportedly going to release a new series of ads this week that will attempt to redefine Biden's image" Evans

So an associated question: do many or most college kids vote where they go to school, or in their home state. In VT, a lot of out of state college students vote here, and have an effect on outcomes. I would think that in a state like NC where the election is apt to be very close, this could be something of a factor?

[Rich]

So an associated question: do many or most college kids vote where they go to school, or in their home state. In VT, a lot of out of state college students vote here, and have an effect on outcomes. I would think that in a state like NC where the election is apt to be very close, this could be something of a factor?

I have one in college and one on the way, both out of state, and they both vote by absentee ballot using our home address (if they remember and vote at all). I think that's the norm.

[budwom]

I have one in college and one on the way, both out of state, and they both vote by absentee ballot using our home address (if they remember and vote at all). I think that's the norm.

Out of state students get actively recruited to vote here (by certain candidates who have something to gain) and just wondered how widespread that is...do you live in a key swing state?

p.s. ah, answered my own question...you're in the Garden State, so your kids might have more sway voting in a different (i.e. not reliably blue) state, right?

[pfrduke]

If I recall correctly (and this is a far from certain thing) I believe at least some states have voting residency rules that do not include college students (at least, college students living on a college campus) as state residents for voting purposes.

[budwom]

If I recall correctly (and this is a far from certain thing) I believe at least some states have voting residency rules that do not include college students (at least, college students living on a college campus) as state residents for voting purposes.

Yes, I'm sure that's true...just wondering what the national stats are on that...

[CrazyNotCrazie]

So an associated question: do many or most college kids vote where they go to school, or in their home state. In VT, a lot of out of state college students vote here, and have an effect on outcomes. I would think that in a state like NC where the election is apt to be very close, this could be something of a factor?

I think we had some discussion on this way upthread (or in another thread) that I believe different states have different rules about students registering to vote. I recall that the issue that particularly mattered to some was not on national or statewide elections but in big college towns, if a lot of students register they can really have an influence on local politics, though their priorities are different from long-term residents of the community (i.e. vote for the person whose platform revolves around keeping bars open later and improving the local golf course rather than the one who wants to fund elementary schools).

If given the choice, I think college students choose to vote where their vote matters more. So if one of my kids from NY ends up going to Duke (fingers crossed), this year they would want to be registered in NC as their vote would matter a lot more there than in NY, where the presidential election is a given and there are no major local or state races. I also don't know how much flexibility there is to bounce back and forth.

[PackMan97]

If I recall correctly (and this is a far from certain thing) I believe at least some states have voting residency rules that do not include college students (at least, college students living on a college campus) as state residents for voting purposes.

From back in the day (laws certainly could be changing and this is NC only), dorms were considered "temporary" housing and as such were not eligible to be used as a voting address. If you lived off campus, that was considered permanent housing.