2020 Presidential Election

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well, 2020 seems to be the year of major events...

Yup. It going to take something extra major to affect Biden at this point, I think. We've all noted about how being the incumbent is an advantage, at least it usually is. Of course, there is nothing usual about Trump. Barring that someone finds something truly awful, which is unlikely since Biden due to his experience is one of the most vetted candidates ever, any impactful event is more likely to weigh on Trump.
That goes both ways. A major hurricane hits and he does a great job of managing the response, or we get a vaccine, that's going to help him lots. Just the same, if a major hurricane hits and he treats it like Puerto Rico, he's going to suffer.
In the first two cases Biden's numbers could likely go down, without him doing anything. In the latter, they may likely go up, once again without him doing anything.

This ball is fully in Trump's court.

[CDu]

This is very interesting but the real issue that matters is how does this translate on a state-by-state basis which in turn translates to the electoral college. As we learned in 2016, popular vote does not matter very much. If you win the right states by 1 vote each and get zero votes in the rest of the states, you are still POTUS.

In general, the national numbers are a pretty good barometer. It's extremely rare (if not unprecedented) for the national results to differ from the winner by more than a few % points. So a robust 7-9% national lead would almost certainly lead to a victory. Clinton's lead nationally was around 2-4% by election time, and she won the popular vote by about 2% but barely lost the election for the reasons you note above.

For reference, Biden's leads in Michigan (+8.2), Pennsylvania (+6.7), Wisconsin (+7.1), Arizona (+4.0), and Florida (+6.0) are fairly robust, and have been so for at least 2 months. Polling data at the state level are noisier than at the national level, especially the farther you get from the election, so these numbers aren't as steady as the national numbers. But they still tell a pretty positive story for Biden.

There's lots of time for something to go wrong for Biden though.

[duke79]

I don't know if Trump really thinks the election date can be changed. But this is part of a larger CYA strategy to breed distrust in the process, so that if he loses, people will question whether he lost legitimately. Not to be alarmist, but this could ultimately lead to anarchy in the days after the election. Donald Trump has never admitted failure or being wrong in his life and he isn't going to start now on his biggest stage.

I'm guessing that DT's tweet about postponing the election was just another negotiating ploy to try to limit, as much as possible, "vote-by-mail" from taking place across the country.

[Acymetric]

I saw Trump re-tweet a video that a Philadelphia news company did to simulate mail-in ballots. They basically mailed out 100+ "ballots" to a PO box they set up to see how long they'd take and if some would go missing. Essentially, a large number took much longer than the 2-3 days you might expect (some 7-10 days) and a few were lost. They concluded it's possible ~3% ballots on election day could possibly be misplaced or not counted based on their experiment. I point this out because I put in an application for a mail-in ballot in my county. And on it, they have a tracker that shows if they received it or not (and when). Seems like a good way to ensure that all votes count. Of course, perhaps not all counties have a site like that set up, but I thought it was pretty cool. The online tracker shows when: application received, ballot mailed to voter, ballot received by clerk, and "track my ballot" (whatever that means).

I've heard about the online tracking, so it appears to be somewhat common but I don't know if it is universal (that would probably be too much to hope for). I think it arguably needs to be universal for it to work properly.

I would also note that, if I were voting by mail, I would want to deposit my ballot in a UPS office or drop-box somewhere. Too easy for someone (neighbor, random passer-by, even the mailman) to decide they don't want your vote to count if you just put it in the mailbox out front with the flag up. Doubly so if you have any kind of sign/flag or other visible expression that indicates who you are likely to vote for to anyone who looks at your house.

[OldPhiKap]

Thom Tillis, after trying to duck the question, finally states that the election is going forward November 3.

I think Trump's tweet was pure distraction from the economic numbers. But to the extent it was a trial balloon, he does not seem to be getting any support from Senate Republicans. (Which again, should go without saying on this but does not always seem assured these days).

[dudog84]

Whoa... there are reports that former GOP Presidential candidate Herman Cain has died of Covid. He attended Trump's rally in Tulsa and was diagnosed with Coronavirus soon after (though I don;t think it is at all clear that he got it at the rally).

If he didn't get it at the rally, he was spreading it at the rally. I distinctly remember a picture of him there without a mask.

[fisheyes]

Thom Tillis, after trying to duck the question, finally states that the election is going forward November 3.

I think Trump's tweet was pure distraction from the economic numbers. But to the extent it was a trial balloon, he does not seem to be getting any support from Senate Republicans. (Which again, should go without saying on this but does not always seem assured these days).

Couldn't agree more.

This is a tactic that he has used successfully in the past.
Too many people know the trick now and it will not work as well going forward.

[Steven43]

Thom Tillis, after trying to duck the question, finally states that the election is going forward November 3.

I think Trump's tweet was pure distraction from the economic numbers. But to the extent it was a trial balloon, he does not seem to be getting any support from Senate Republicans. (Which again, should go without saying on this but does not always seem assured these days).

He tried to duck the question of whether the election is going forward on November 3??? Why in the world would he dodge that question? What exactly is going on here?

[OldPhiKap]

He tried to duck the question of whether the election is going forward on November 3??? Why in the world would he dodge that question? What exactly is going on here?

His initial response was "check with my staff."

To give him the benefit of the doubt, it may well be that he was tired of reporters asking him on an almost daily basis about the latest provocative tweet from Trump. They all gotta be getting sick of it.

But not sure, that should be an easy "no."

Joni Ernst is the only one I've seen who has simply stiff-armed a response to the question and has yet to answer. There are probably more, but several outlets have highlighted her lack of response.


ETA: Rand Paul ducked the question too apparently.

[JasonEvans]

He tried to duck the question of whether the election is going forward on November 3??? Why in the world would he dodge that question? What exactly is going on here?

He did not want to be seen as challenging the leader of his party. Why is that surprising or hard to understand? Most politicians on both sides of the aisle do that very same thing.

[dudog84]

Joni Ernst is the only one I've seen who has simply stiff-armed a response to the question and has yet to answer. There are probably more, but several outlets have highlighted her lack of response.

Wrong thread, but Ernst has been down by a couple points in every poll for the last 2 months. Tough spot.

[Steven43]

He did not want to be seen as challenging the leader of his party. Why is that surprising or hard to understand? Most politicians on both sides of the aisle do that very same thing.

I don’t see it is “challenging” Trump for Tillis to simply state the election is going forward on November 3 as planned.

For him to equivocate — combined with Trump’s tweet — makes it start to seem that something nefarious could be in the works.

[gumbomoop]

He did not want to be seen as challenging the leader of his party. Why is that surprising or hard to understand? Most politicians on both sides of the aisle do that very same thing.

I’m not trying to start a pissing contest here, but I firmly disagree.

Although as a generalization your comparison holds true, in this particular case it’s false equivalence. There’s never been an American political leader whose party loyalists have to duck multiple times every single day.

It is not at all “the very same thing.”

[CameronBornAndBred]

I’m not trying to start a pissing contest here

If you do, do it safely!

430x9u.jpg

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

He did not want to be seen as challenging the leader of his party. Why is that surprising or hard to understand? Most politicians on both sides of the aisle do that very same thing.

Yeah, not to pile on, Jason, but I can't think of any other politician whose party lined up behind him/her as they attempted to shrug off the topic of "as scheduled presidential elections."

Are we used to this from this particular president? I mean, sort of. Is it disappointing to watch his party act as though it's no big deal to cast doubt upon the timetable of US presidential elections? For me, yes.

[dudog84]

Since we will be racing past 200,000 deaths around Labor Day (you know, when people really start to pay attention to the election) and 250,000 by November 3, I do not see any way that Trump can get re-elected. We lost 405,399 in 4 years of WII, we'll be well past halfway there in 8 months. I know usually "It's the economy, stupid", but I'm sure in 1944 it was "It's WWII, stupid", and this year it will be "It's COVID, stupid". Even Ronald Reagan could not get away with this performance. I even wonder if FDR would have lost if D-Day had failed.

[jimsumner]

Since we will be racing past 200,000 deaths around Labor Day (you know, when people really start to pay attention to the election) and 250,000 by November 3, I do not see any way that Trump can get re-elected. We lost 405,399 in 4 years of WII, we'll be well past halfway there in 8 months. I know usually "It's the economy, stupid", but I'm sure in 1944 it was "It's WWII, stupid", and this year it will be "It's COVID, stupid". Even Ronald Reagan could not get away with this performance. I even wonder if FDR would have lost if D-Day had failed.

And with those projected death totals I'm not sure "it's the economy, stupid" is going to work in the incumbent's favor.

[Mike Corey]

Yeah, not to pile on, Jason, but I can't think of any other politician whose party lined up behind him/her as they attempted to shrug off the topic of "as scheduled presidential elections."

Are we used to this from this particular president? I mean, sort of. Is it disappointing to watch his party act as though it's no big deal to cast doubt upon the timetable of US presidential elections? For me, yes.

Agreed.

Let's not get used to it.

We're not talking tax policy here, and a disagreement thereof.

Mr. Trump threatened to not accept the results in 2016, and he is laying the foundation to do so now. This is the latest and most significant broadside against our willingness to accept election results and have a peaceful transition of power.

It will only escalate.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Since we will be racing past 200,000 deaths around Labor Day (you know, when people really start to pay attention to the election) and 250,000 by November 3, I do not see any way that Trump can get re-elected. We lost 405,399 in 4 years of WII, we'll be well past halfway there in 8 months. I know usually "It's the economy, stupid", but I'm sure in 1944 it was "It's WWII, stupid", and this year it will be "It's COVID, stupid". Even Ronald Reagan could not get away with this performance. I even wonder if FDR would have lost if D-Day had failed.

Well, when the worst GDP drop since 1958 happens on your watch (32.9%), the economy ain't helping you much.

Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic activity — shrank at an annual rate of 32.9% in the second quarter as restaurants and retailers closed their doors in a desperate effort to slow the spread of the virus, which has killed more than 150,000 people in the U.S.

The economic shock in April, May and June was more than three times as sharp as the previous record — 10% in 1958 — and nearly four times the worst quarter during the Great Recession.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...yTeC-kXiqSGdZs

[Kdogg]

Since we will be racing past 200,000 deaths around Labor Day (you know, when people really start to pay attention to the election) and 250,000 by November 3, I do not see any way that Trump can get re-elected. We lost 405,399 in 4 years of WII, we'll be well past halfway there in 8 months. I know usually "It's the economy, stupid", but I'm sure in 1944 it was "It's WWII, stupid", and this year it will be "It's COVID, stupid". Even Ronald Reagan could not get away with this performance. I even wonder if FDR would have lost if D-Day had failed.

You are applying rational thought, logic and facts. After what we’ve seen in the recent past, I wonder if they determine people’s actions. I’m not joking when I say a YouTube video or Facebook post carry more weight.