2020 Presidential Election

[CameronBornAndBred]

If Pence is asked to attend a foreign funeral the day before the convention, he'll know POTUS is doing a Fredo on him.

I really hadn't thought about Pence losing his spot this time around...is there anyone out there who could give POTUS a huge bump right now? I can't see it...

Haley

[budwom]

Haley

I think a decent argument could have been made for her pre Covid, but I don't see it now. Also, replacing his point man on Covid would seem to be a tacit admission of failure, IMO...

[OldPhiKap]

If Pence is asked to attend a foreign funeral the day before the convention, he'll know POTUS is doing a Fredo on him.

I really hadn't thought about Pence losing his spot this time around...is there anyone out there who could give POTUS a huge bump right now? I can't see it...

Reasons Trump might feel call for dumping Pence:

* Trump needed Pence to help solidify evangelicals in 2016; Trump may feel he does not need help now and/or think his recent slide with that group means Pence is not delivering.
* Indiana is going R no matter what; some other states might get a boost with a favorite son/daughter
* Just gotta shake things up -- the current trajectory is not good and it's time to change the narrative
* Pence is in charge of coronavirus, and that's not going well for the President right now. It's gotta be someone's fault, and it's certainly not his own.
* Shiny new object -- especially if it is a woman (Sarah Huckabee Sanders?) or a FoxNews contributor/host (where he seems to get a lot of his WH staff)

Reasons Trump might feel call for keeping Pence:

*

[jjredickrules]

I will make a pie bet that none of those are the 2024 nominee.

The poll listed these 6 specifically as the only ones on the ballot, so this says more about the polling people than the polled people.

That said, I believe both Haley and Cruz have a good shot in 2024. Not a good enough shot to take your pie bet, but not far off, either

[budwom]

^ it would be quite a move to replace Pence for his coronavirus performance when as recently as last night Trump was touting how well we're doing....having said that, nothing would surprise me...

[OldPhiKap]

^ it would be quite a move to replace Pence for his coronavirus performance when as recently as last night Trump was touting how well we're doing...having said that, nothing would surprise me...

Trump could say that he wants Pence to focus on the virus, and to keep him in that role.

[budwom]

Trump could say that he wants Pence to focus on the virus, and to keep him in that role.

Ha, Pence and Fauci could share a desk in Butte.

[SoCalDukeFan]

If Pence is asked to attend a foreign funeral the day before the convention, he'll know POTUS is doing a Fredo on him.

I really hadn't thought about Pence losing his spot this time around...is there anyone out there who could give POTUS a huge bump right now? I can't see it...

I don't either. And if you do find someone, would they take the job?

I think Pence does very little for the ticket as Trump and Pence could find a way for him to exit without upsetting anyone who supports Trump/Pence to vote for Biden.

Haley would help but why would she take it? Rice is not going to. Maybe some general or admiral.

SoCal

[Phredd3]

I don't think Pence is going anywhere, personally. Trump demands fealty, but from what I've seen, he also rewards it. Pence has been nothing but complimentary of the President and often goes out of his way to congratulate him on one thing or another, even when it doesn't seem particularly called for. Also, Pence has been very successful at pulling on the strings of government to get stuff done while keeping it out of the spotlight.

I just don't see Trump jettisoning his most effective operative and his most loyal subject.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't think Pence is going anywhere, personally. Trump demands fealty, but from what I've seen, he also rewards it. Pence has been nothing but complimentary of the President and often goes out of his way to congratulate him on one thing or another, even when it doesn't seem particularly called for. Also, Pence has been very successful at pulling on the strings of government to get stuff done while keeping it out of the spotlight.

I just don't see Trump jettisoning his most effective operative and his most loyal subject.

What does Jared think of Pence? That may be an important consideration. I thought Jared and Ivanka were floating the idea of jettisoning Pence last fall, but could be wrong.

Pence is loyal. But Jared and Ivanka are blood.

[sagegrouse]

Reasons Trump might feel call for dumping Pence:

* Trump needed Pence to help solidify evangelicals in 2016; Trump may feel he does not need help now and/or think his recent slide with that group means Pence is not delivering.
* Indiana is going R no matter what; some other states might get a boost with a favorite son/daughter
* Just gotta shake things up -- the current trajectory is not good and it's time to change the narrative
* Pence is in charge of coronavirus, and that's not going well for the President right now. It's gotta be someone's fault, and it's certainly not his own.
* Shiny new object -- especially if it is a woman (Sarah Huckabee Sanders?) or a FoxNews contributor/host (where he seems to get a lot of his WH staff)

Reasons Trump might feel call for keeping Pence:

*

I'll play. While the coronavirus situation is going poorly, someone has to be in charge. Pence genuflects every two minutes in the direction of his boss and manages, in addition, to make some cogent statements about the US strategy and response. Moreover, I can't imagine who would take his place in that role.

[Jeffrey]

The distribution of people who view it positively is pretty concentrated though. Referencing the confederate flag in a positive light is unlikely to cost you any states, but could well help you carry others (because of the way views on the flag are distributed and because I suspect that a lot of the people who view it negatively are of the "I view it negatively, but who really cares" variety).

Compare it to pandering to (for example) coal miners, which also only resonates with a small core but can make a huge difference in the states where it is relevant.

Thank you, very much, I was having a very hard time understanding Trump’s confederate flag strategy. Given your insight, I can finally see how he believes it could definitely help him in a critical state like Florida.

Must confess, I have a very hard time figuring out Trump’s strategies. I’m guessing his statue protection strategy is based on his belief that protecting Washington and Jefferson statues, memorials, etc. could also help him swing key states? I guess most Americans would evaluate Washington and Jefferson based upon their total body of work?

[JasonEvans]

Haley

There is some belief that Haley could help Trump but would she even want it? I think the only way she would take it is if she thought her presence would mean Trump would win reelection. If she is the VP on a losing ticket then I don't see that as helping her long term political future as it would tie her even more to Trump and there is a not unreasonable belief that Trump may be electoral poison (narrow, non-popular vote win in 2016; GOP trounced in 2018; GOP apparently on the way to another trouncing in 2020). Haley has thus far done a good job of being acceptable to the Trump crowd while still not being seen as a Trump sycophant. I suspect she wants to maintain that persona.

There are two bottom lines in this discussion -- 1 is whether a new VP would help Trump and 2 is whether a new VP would help him win. I suspect that #2 is not likely. The idea that any VP could lift Trump 8-10 points in the polls seems crazy. If Trump is going to win, he will need to make that happen himself, not through a sexy VP pick. But, make no mistake, there is value to the Republican party in Trump only losing by something like 4 or 5 points versus him losing by 8-10. At 8-10 points, the GOP is losing 5+ senate seats and perhaps even more seats in the House. At 4 or 5 points there may be a shot at the GOP holding onto the Senate and they might even get a couple of those 2018 Blue Wave seats back in the House. It is also worth noting that if the race is close to 10 points, the depressing reality of a loss is likely to depress GOP turnout while at 4 or 5 points there will be some belief that Trump can pull off another 2016 backdoor EV win.

Now, does Donald Trump care very much whether he loses by 5 or by 10? I'm not sure about that. A loss is a loss and the fate of the rest of the larger GOP just does not seem to matter that much to him.

-Jason" I wonder if it looks like a panicky move if Trump picks a new VP. A desperate candidate is not going to help turnout" Evans

[Rich]

I really hadn't thought about Pence losing his spot this time around...is there anyone out there who could give POTUS a huge bump right now? I can't see it...

Joe Biden?

[Jeffrey]

-Jason" I wonder if it looks like a panicky move if Trump picks a new VP. A desperate candidate is not going to help turnout" Evans

I would perceive it as a panicky move which also lacks loyalty. However, he might successfully sell it as I’m listening and giving America their VP of choice. I think Trump’s campaign really needs a substantial “I’m listening” component.

[OldPhiKap]

When you're trailing in almost every swing state poll, perhaps it IS time to panic.

I'm sure he can sell it as a great move, if he does it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

There is some belief that Haley could help Trump but would she even want it? I think the only way she would take it is if she thought her presence would mean Trump would win reelection. If she is the VP on a losing ticket then I don't see that as helping her long term political future as it would tie her even more to Trump and there is a not unreasonable belief that Trump may be electoral poison (narrow, non-popular vote win in 2016; GOP trounced in 2018; GOP apparently on the way to another trouncing in 2020). Haley has thus far done a good job of being acceptable to the Trump crowd while still not being seen as a Trump sycophant. I suspect she wants to maintain that persona.

There are two bottom lines in this discussion -- 1 is whether a new VP would help Trump and 2 is whether a new VP would help him win. I suspect that #2 is not likely. The idea that any VP could lift Trump 8-10 points in the polls seems crazy. If Trump is going to win, he will need to make that happen himself, not through a sexy VP pick. But, make no mistake, there is value to the Republican party in Trump only losing by something like 4 or 5 points versus him losing by 8-10. At 8-10 points, the GOP is losing 5+ senate seats and perhaps even more seats in the House. At 4 or 5 points there may be a shot at the GOP holding onto the Senate and they might even get a couple of those 2018 Blue Wave seats back in the House. It is also worth noting that if the race is close to 10 points, the depressing reality of a loss is likely to depress GOP turnout while at 4 or 5 points there will be some belief that Trump can pull off another 2016 backdoor EV win.

Now, does Donald Trump care very much whether he loses by 5 or by 10? I'm not sure about that. A loss is a loss and the fate of the rest of the larger GOP just does not seem to matter that much to him.

-Jason" I wonder if it looks like a panicky move if Trump picks a new VP. A desperate candidate is not going to help turnout" Evans

I appreciate the long reply, good points, but I was merely answering the question "is there anyone out there who could give POTUS a huge bump right now?"
She's the one and only person that could do that. Don't know if she wants to, and I don't see anything changing on the ticket.
My guess is that she has her eyes set on 2024 and doesn't feel any great need to take a chance spoiling that opportunity by climbing in now. Too great of a risk.

[budwom]

A lot of Repubs are artfully threading the needle with Trump...saying good things about him, often supporting him (voting with him) but at the same time distancing themselves from some of his more bombastic comments.

As a VP candidate, it's really difficult to do that...pretty much have to be "all in" as Pence has shown himself to be...anyone with future national aspirations is unlikely to hop on board this train now, IMO.

But there's always someone. Ivanka?

[AustinDevil]

I don't think Pence is going anywhere, personally. Trump demands fealty, but from what I've seen, he also rewards it. Pence has been nothing but complimentary of the President and often goes out of his way to congratulate him on one thing or another, even when it doesn't seem particularly called for. Also, Pence has been very successful at pulling on the strings of government to get stuff done while keeping it out of the spotlight.

I just don't see Trump jettisoning his most effective operative and his most loyal subject.

Um, what? This isn't to bash Trump, by the way. It can be enormously effective for a politician not to be tied into unpopular positions due to loyalty to friends or underlings. It can also be refreshing for a politician to pivot, even reverse themselves.

But Trump does not reward loyalty. He jettisons anyone and everyone--and any and every position, often undercutting allies and defenders--whenever he feels like it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-trump/562523/

[duke79]

Thank you, very much, I was having a very hard time understanding Trump’s confederate flag strategy. Given your insight, I can finally see how he believes it could definitely help him in a critical state like Florida.

Must confess, I have a very hard time figuring out Trump’s strategies. I’m guessing his statue protection strategy is based on his belief that protecting Washington and Jefferson statues, memorials, etc. could also help him swing key states? I guess most Americans would evaluate Washington and Jefferson based upon their total body of work?

LOL, you and EVERYBODY else in the country!!