2020 Presidential Election

[OldPhiKap]

Condi removed herself for consideration of the VP slot in 2016: https://news.yahoo.com/condi-rice-sa...193941558.html

Doubt she wants it now.


Nikki is an early front runner for 2024; she would be crazy to jump into the slot right now.

[dudog84]

Nikki Haley is a woman but is not African American.

Oh, ok. Then she fits 2/3 the bill of your original statement.

[swood1000]

The question is why Trump would go out of his way to side with displaying the Confederate flag at NASCAR events. Some adopt the view that it is not complicated: Trump is trying to appeal to racists in order to get their vote. To me this seems overly simplistic, especially if the same people assert that Trump would have the votes of these people without making such statements. What would justify the possibility of losing political support because of this? Trump has heretofore denied being a racist so it must be conceded that he believes that some voters who would not vote for an avowed racist might be convinced to vote for him. Wouldn’t the Confederate flag issue work to his detriment with such people? To some it remains uncomplicated: Trump is an idiot who is unable to make rudimentary political judgments. To me such an answer cannot be viewed as a reasonable or satisfactory conclusion.

According to a Morning Consult and Politico poll (not three years old), only 36% of the people see displaying the Confederate flag as racist, with 44% seeing it as a symbol of Southern pride with the remainder apparently noncommittal.

My theory is that Trump believes that even among those who answer today that the Confederate flag is racist there are many who answered the question differently twenty years ago and whose underlying view has not fundamentally changed in the interim – they continue to view the Confederate flag primarily as a symbol of Southern pride or as a form of Dukes of Hazzard harmless fun, or at least they are tolerant of such views and of the view that the Confederate flag does not necessarily indicate racial animus.

My theory also is that Trump believes that this type of opinion is sufficiently widespread that support for displaying the Confederate flag will be treated leniently by many people when they vote and that only his diehard opponents will see it as irrefutable proof of racism. Furthermore, my theory is that Trump thinks that many people view the Confederate flag as an important cultural symbol for some (even though not for them). He believes that many such people will conclude that attempts at defenestration have already begun on cultural issues or symbols that are important to them, and that a refusal to buckle under to such attacks is not unwelcome even though the current issue is not theirs.

I acknowledge that the high recent support for Black Lives Matter in the polls is inconsistent with the notion that defense of the Confederate flag could possibly resonate in the bosom of many for whom it is not a personal cultural symbol, as a kind of representative of cultural symbols generally, including those that that are important to them. Nevertheless that could still have been Trump’s thinking, in which case his miscalculation on this score contributed to his current poll rankings.

It’s possible that Trump was also trying to target NASCAR fans. Maybe the demographics show them to be clustered in important swing states (NC, FL, OH?). According to a Morning Consult poll,
 

• NASCAR fans ages 45 and up oppose the ban by a margin of 50% to 23%.
• NASCAR fans ages 44 and under are in a statistical tie with 27% having no opinion.
• Avid NASCAR fans are more Republican, Southern and white than general sports fans.

(I heard the word "defenestrate" used in a podcast this week and have been waiting for an opportunity to use it.)

[budwom]

^ the only explanation that makes sense to me is the aforementioned argument that by ultra solidifying his base, Trump sets himself up for a lucrative gig next year, be it on Fox or elsewhere.

[OldPhiKap]

Trump has heretofore denied being a racist

Well, that’s that then.

The whole base play seems like bad politics to me, but . . .

D17872B5-3EAD-482F-8378-2B6B7846949A.jpg

[Phredd3]

Yep, I hear you guys. Thanks. The thing that's just funny to me is the disparate headlines from the same source:

Case 1 Headline from CNN:
"SCOTUS rules Trump not immune from New York's subpoena"

Case 2 Headline from CNN:
"Supreme Court blocks Congress from Getting Trump Records: The ruling is a win for the President as the court demands a higher bar for obtaining his financial documents"

I get that both are accurate statements though, but somebody just perusing might think Trump "won" one case and "lost" the other.

That's really pretty much what happened. In the Vance case (NY prosecution subpoena), the Court said the default is that the documents must be disclosed, but Trump can still claim undue burden if he can make an effective showing. In the Mazars case, the Court more or less came up with a four-part test and essentially said that the burden is on Congress to explain exactly what they need and why in the context of that four-part test, and if they can't do that, the answer is no. The District Court didn't use the new test (obviously), but now Congress has to meet it. So yes, both cases bump back to the District Court, but the party who has to do something next is quite different for each case.

Is there a way to tell if any of the 7 justices thought that Trump should have to hand over financial records now? I thought there are sometimes different decisions written even if they largely "agree." Like in the Affordable Care Act case, Roberts agreed with the majority that Affordable Care Act is legal but for different reasons (i.e. Congress has authority to tax its citizens).

The Vance decision had 5 votes for the exact result, and a concurring opinion (Kavanaugh and Gorsuch) which basically said those two Justices would use a slightly different legal standard to decide it, but that different standard leads to the same result. So the answer to your question is no. There was no Justice who actually voted for immediate disclosure in either case.

I agree with others, though, who conclude that the cases, while they may have significant impact on the Presidency in future years, just serve to postpone any real decision-making on Trump himself until well after this horse-race is over.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Biden announced his economic plan today in a speech that was carried by most of the major cable networks. It's been a while since he had that kind of broad coverage.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Not sure if many will peel away or not, but I gotta think that if things have not improved by Labor Day (Sept. 7 -- a little less than two months out from the election) Republicans will need to decide whether to take the Major Kong ride down to the ground.

But I fully expect this race to tighten before then. Trump is testing the bottom of his range, and Biden is probably near the peak of his.

I know that conventional wisdom says the race tightens, but I am not so sure it will.

Trump just has to be Trump which is not helping him. More and more will get the virus and some will get very sick and die. Families will blame Trump, helped by the Democrats blaming him as well.

School will certainly be different for most kids and probably a mess for many. As a country we must get the virus under control and we don't seem to be doing a good job of that. Hard for me to see good news for Trump on the horizon.

Of course, I thought the economy was in excellent shape last January so what do I know?

SoCal

[CameronBornAndBred]

Biden announced his economic plan today in a speech that was carried by most of the major cable networks. It's been a while since he had that kind of broad coverage.

BTW, that speech was given at an industrial metal plant in Pennsylvania. That was a smart move; just because Pa is his birth state doesn't guarantee him picking it up. I expect he'll be there lots.

[Skydog]

The question is why Trump would go out of his way to side with displaying the Confederate flag at NASCAR events. Some adopt the view that it is not complicated: Trump is trying to appeal to racists in order to get their vote. To me this seems overly simplistic, especially if the same people assert that Trump would have the votes of these people without making such statements. What would justify the possibility of losing political support because of this? Trump has heretofore denied being a racist so it must be conceded that he believes that some voters who would not vote for an avowed racist might be convinced to vote for him. Wouldn’t the Confederate flag issue work to his detriment with such people? To some it remains uncomplicated: Trump is an idiot who is unable to make rudimentary political judgments. To me such an answer cannot be viewed as a reasonable or satisfactory conclusion.

According to a Morning Consult and Politico poll (not three years old), only 36% of the people see displaying the Confederate flag as racist, with 44% seeing it as a symbol of Southern pride with the remainder apparently noncommittal.

My theory is that Trump believes that even among those who answer today that the Confederate flag is racist there are many who answered the question differently twenty years ago and whose underlying view has not fundamentally changed in the interim – they continue to view the Confederate flag primarily as a symbol of Southern pride or as a form of Dukes of Hazzard harmless fun, or at least they are tolerant of such views and of the view that the Confederate flag does not necessarily indicate racial animus.

My theory also is that Trump believes that this type of opinion is sufficiently widespread that support for displaying the Confederate flag will be treated leniently by many people when they vote and that only his diehard opponents will see it as irrefutable proof of racism. Furthermore, my theory is that Trump thinks that many people view the Confederate flag as an important cultural symbol for some (even though not for them). He believes that many such people will conclude that attempts at defenestration have already begun on cultural issues or symbols that are important to them, and that a refusal to buckle under to such attacks is not unwelcome even though the current issue is not theirs.

I acknowledge that the high recent support for Black Lives Matter in the polls is inconsistent with the notion that defense of the Confederate flag could possibly resonate in the bosom of many for whom it is not a personal cultural symbol, as a kind of representative of cultural symbols generally, including those that that are important to them. Nevertheless that could still have been Trump’s thinking, in which case his miscalculation on this score contributed to his current poll rankings.

It’s possible that Trump was also trying to target NASCAR fans. Maybe the demographics show them to be clustered in important swing states (NC, FL, OH?). According to a Morning Consult poll,
 

• NASCAR fans ages 45 and up oppose the ban by a margin of 50% to 23%.
• NASCAR fans ages 44 and under are in a statistical tie with 27% having no opinion.
• Avid NASCAR fans are more Republican, Southern and white than general sports fans.

(I heard the word "defenestrate" used in a podcast this week and have been waiting for an opportunity to use it.)

Trump’s recent moves don’t seem politically motivated to me - they seem like the moves of a man having a temper tantrum. He is obviously angry that he can’t quell the criticism of his covid response and angry that he wasn’t allowed to exert a more militaristic control over the protests. At this point it seems like he has reached the point that his moves are more motivated by a “NO ONE will tell me what to do or think” stance than by ensuring his own re-election.
The one possible logical explanation for his recent moves would be he has decided he doesn’t want a second term (public office is pretty restricting) and has decided to focus more on further building his post-Presidency branding for his right-of-Fox news station, etc.

[budwom]

y'all got tickets for the Portsmouth New Hamster rally yet? They're going fast (maybe).

[OldPhiKap]

Trump’s recent moves don’t seem politically motivated to me - they seem like the moves of a man having a temper tantrum. He is obviously angry that he can’t quell the criticism of his covid response and angry that he wasn’t allowed to exert a more militaristic control over the protests. At this point it seems like he has reached the point that his moves are more motivated by a “NO ONE will tell me what to do or think” stance than by ensuring his own re-election.

Agreed. And, as a contrast to swood’s view of the flag, from a new ABC news poll article:

In a 2015 poll from Pew Research Center, 13% said they had a positive reaction to the Confederate flag, compared to 28% who said they had a negative reaction. Now, only 5% say they have a positive reaction to the defining emblem of the Confederacy, while 43% have a negative one.

Still, a majority of Americans, both in 2015 and now, said they had neither a positive or negative reaction to the flag.

A negative reaction is even more pronounced for black Americans, who are more than two times as likely as white Americans to have a negative reaction to the Confederate flag, 76%-37%. Just over four in 10 Hispanics have a negative reaction to the banner.

The reckoning over race comes over three years into Trump's presidency, throughout which, he has invoked inflammatory rhetoric on the issue.

Trump is seeing his approval broadly underwater for his handling of race relations, even across all racial groups. More than half (57%) of white Americans, and overwhelming majorities of black Americans (92%) and Hispanics (83%) disapprove of the president’s handling of this issue.

Although his approval among Republicans falls at 78% on race relations, this is far less than the strong majority of Democrats (91%) who disapprove of the president on this issue. Independents (74% disapprove) are also deeply skeptical of the president’s handling of race relations.

https://twitter.com/philippereines/s...012567553?s=21

This is just bad politics. It only resonates with a small core positively, and is a negative much more broadly. The numbers speak for themselves.

[sagegrouse]

BTW, that speech was given at an industrial metal plant in Pennsylvania. That was a smart move; just because Pa is his birth state doesn't guarantee him picking it up. I expect he'll be there lots.

Moreover, PA isn't far from his basement in Wilmington DE.

[Acymetric]

Agreed. And, as a contrast to swood’s view of the flag, from a new ABC news poll article:



https://twitter.com/philippereines/s...012567553?s=21

This is just bad politics. It only resonates with a small core positively, and is a negative much more broadly. The numbers speak for themselves.

The distribution of people who view it positively is pretty concentrated though. Referencing the confederate flag in a positive light is unlikely to cost you any states, but could well help you carry others (because of the way views on the flag are distributed and because I suspect that a lot of the people who view it negatively are of the "I view it negatively, but who really cares" variety).

Compare it to pandering to (for example) coal miners, which also only resonates with a small core but can make a huge difference in the states where it is relevant.

[Matches]

Trump’s recent moves don’t seem politically motivated to me - they seem like the moves of a man having a temper tantrum. He is obviously angry that he can’t quell the criticism of his covid response and angry that he wasn’t allowed to exert a more militaristic control over the protests. At this point it seems like he has reached the point that his moves are more motivated by a “NO ONE will tell me what to do or think” stance than by ensuring his own re-election.
The one possible logical explanation for his recent moves would be he has decided he doesn’t want a second term (public office is pretty restricting) and has decided to focus more on further building his post-Presidency branding for his right-of-Fox news station, etc.

Trump trusts his instincts. I don't think he's planning as far ahead as next year or maybe even next month. Unquestionably he is angry, and unquestionably that anger is reflected in his judgment and decision making. But he's always been a guy who trusts his own instincts, often to the exclusion of literally everything else - and in general, that has worked out for him. Whether that will be the case this time too - I dunno - after 2016 I don't trust the polling. Things look bad for him but anecdotally I don't see any waning of enthusiasm for his true believer supporters. If anything they're more entrenched than ever, and just as motivated as ever to vote.

[JasonEvans]

Survey USA was doing a poll of Republicans in Maine's 2nd district and went ahead and peered 4 years into the future.

Choice for GOP Presidential Nominee in 2024:
Mike Pence 30%
Ted Cruz 12%
Nikki Haley 12%
Donald Trump Jr 11%
Ivanka Trump 7%
Marco Rubio 6%
Undecided 21%

[budwom]

Survey USA was doing a poll of Republicans in Maine's 2nd district and went ahead and peered 4 years into the future.

Choice for GOP Presidential Nominee in 2024:
Mike Pence 30%
Ted Cruz 12%
Nikki Haley 12%
Donald Trump Jr 11%
Ivanka Trump 7%
Marco Rubio 6%
Undecided 21%

yes, too soon...but I'd put tons of money against Pence, it's not going to be him.

[OldPhiKap]

yes, too soon...but I'd put tons of money against Pence, it's not going to be him.

Agreed. Not even sure I would bet on whether he is the VP candidate for 2020.

Would also bet it will not be one of the Trump kids.

[PackMan97]

Survey USA was doing a poll of Republicans in Maine's 2nd district and went ahead and peered 4 years into the future.

Choice for GOP Presidential Nominee in 2024:
Mike Pence 30%
Ted Cruz 12%
Nikki Haley 12%
Donald Trump Jr 11%
Ivanka Trump 7%
Marco Rubio 6%
Undecided 21%

I will make a pie bet that none of those are the 2024 nominee.

[budwom]

Agreed. Not even sure I would bet on whether he is the VP candidate for 2020.

Would also bet it will not be one of the Trump kids.

If Pence is asked to attend a foreign funeral the day before the convention, he'll know POTUS is doing a Fredo on him.

I really hadn't thought about Pence losing his spot this time around...is there anyone out there who could give POTUS a huge bump right now? I can't see it...