2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

Nate Silver had a good point today on Twitter. The trump tax discussion has been in the media a ton of the last few years and it really hasn’t moved the needle all that much. Covid/economy/race relations HAS moved the needle. So if you are Trump, you would love for the media to go back to talking about tax returns.

But, Trump needs to move the needle again. The current state of the polls shows him losing badly and the GOP losing many senate seats as well. How does talking about something that does not move the needle help him? It only does so if you think that folks who are upset about Covid, race relations, and the economy will suddenly decide that Trump is going ok on those issues simply because we are now talking a bit about his taxes.

Given that we've seen weeks of bad polls for Trump, indicating people may be hardening in their position about him, I don't see shifting the conversation to something that does not change attitudes as something that helps him at all.

[swood1000]

What exactly is being sought? Mostly tax returns or are all current loan agreements, partnership agreements, etc. also being requested? Trump’s true wealth would be hard to calculate. Goodwill would be particularly difficult to accurately value and a substantial component of his net worth.

I don’t see why Trump’s true wealth would be hard to calculate. People can quibble about the best method of capitalizing an income stream but a credible ballpark estimate can certainly be produced. If this results in a calculation of $200 million and he is claiming $800 million of goodwill or unrealized appreciation in real estate value, for a claimed net worth of $1 billion, one could see why he might want to avoid such a discussion.

[LasVegas]

But, Trump needs to move the needle again. The current state of the polls shows him losing badly and the GOP losing many senate seats as well. How does talking about something that does not move the needle help him? It only does so if you think that folks who are upset about Covid, race relations, and the economy will suddenly decide that Trump is going ok on those issues simply because we are now talking a bit about his taxes.

Given that we've seen weeks of bad polls for Trump, indicating people may be hardening in their position about him, I don't see shifting the conversation to something that does not change attitudes as something that helps him at all.

I guess he would just be betting on the short attention span of voters. In this political climate, who knows if that would hold true anymore.

[JasonEvans]

PPP (Democratic pollster, but still a good polling outfit with a B from 538) polled NC and Alaska today. The numbers are not good for Trump.

NC - Biden 50, Trump 46
Alaska - Trump 48, Biden 45

Alaska is supposed to be an automatic GOP win. It has not voted for a Democrat for President in like 30 years.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...und-in-alaska/
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...win-over-base/

[swood1000]

Given that we've seen weeks of bad polls for Trump, indicating people may be hardening in their position about him, I don't see shifting the conversation to something that does not change attitudes as something that helps him at all.

I don’t quite see the evidence for a hardening of positions against Trump, or why the same thing couldn’t have been said at other low points along the way. The polling during the summer and fall of 2016 shows Trump falling much lower than he has recently. I don’t see what indicates that there won’t be similar variation leading up to November of 2020.

Part of the answer to that depends on one’s explanation for the recent decline. What percentage is COVID related and what percentage has to do with his handling of the recent social unrest? His polls on the economy are a lot higher. How will a person vote who likes the way Trump handled the economy but think he should have taken a different tack with the unrest? How well will the law-and-order-honor-traditional-American-values vs. the address-systemic-racism-now-increase-taxes-especially-on-the-rich positions be adopted by the voters? I think that the polls have not stopped moving.

[dudog84]

PPP (Democratic pollster, but still a good polling outfit with a B from 538) polled NC and Alaska today. The numbers are not good for Trump.

NC - Biden 50, Trump 46
Alaska - Trump 48, Biden 45

Alaska is supposed to be an automatic GOP win. It has not voted for a Democrat for President in like 30 years.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...und-in-alaska/
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...win-over-base/

Make that 56 years. LBJ is the only time Alaska has gone blue. Plus he beat Hillary by about 15 points 4 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ions_in_Alaska

I don’t quite see the evidence for a hardening of positions against Trump, or why the same thing couldn’t have been said at other low points along the way. The polling during the summer and fall of 2016 shows Trump falling much lower than he has recently. I don’t see what indicates that there won’t be similar variation leading up to November of 2020.

Because he has a record now. You can't compare 2016 shiny-new-thing Trump to 2020 incumbent Trump.

[Phredd3]

I don’t quite see the evidence for a hardening of positions against Trump, or why the same thing couldn’t have been said at other low points along the way. The polling during the summer and fall of 2016 shows Trump falling much lower than he has recently. I don’t see what indicates that there won’t be similar variation leading up to November of 2020.

538 actually addressed this question in a piece posted just today. Their take is that, yes, it is possible that the polls still move enough to change the election, but that the lead is big enough and has been resilient enough at this point to present a significant challenge for Trump. Stranger things have happened in 2020, and the chickens don't get counted until November 3rd, but the Trump camp should definitely be concerned at this point.

I wonder how long this will need to persist for rank-and-file Republicans to begin distancing themselves from the President. Politicians looking for survival have no loyalties, and though they may fear a Tweet-storm, they fear not getting elected far more. Of course, with many, many safe districts, a good number (perhaps most) of Republicans won't risk alienating Trump's enthusiastic base, but the folks in the middle should start feeling the heat very soon. If cracks appear, that could further hurt the President's chances of a meaningful recovery.

[OldPhiKap]

I wonder how long this will need to persist for rank-and-file Republicans to begin distancing themselves from the President. Politicians looking for survival have no loyalties, and though they may fear a Tweet-storm, they fear not getting elected far more. Of course, with many, many safe districts, a good number (perhaps most) of Republicans won't risk alienating Trump's enthusiastic base, but the folks in the middle should start feeling the heat very soon. If cracks appear, that could further hurt the President's chances of a meaningful recovery.

Not sure if many will peel away or not, but I gotta think that if things have not improved by Labor Day (Sept. 7 -- a little less than two months out from the election) Republicans will need to decide whether to take the Major Kong ride down to the ground.

But I fully expect this race to tighten before then. Trump is testing the bottom of his range, and Biden is probably near the peak of his.

[CameronBornAndBred]

If cracks appear, that could further hurt the President's chances of a meaningful recovery.

As JE pointed out a few posts ago, ads like the one that the Lincoln Project has that calls out individual congressional members by name will add stress to those cracks. I don't know when, or if, we will see some of those folks truly distance themselves, though. You know they would like to, but at the same time, if DT wins, then they get to face his ire for four years. And some of those folks will be up for reelection in 2, with him rallying for their primary opponents.

[mkirsh]

As JE pointed out a few posts ago, ads like the one that the Lincoln Project has that calls out individual congressional members by name will add stress to those cracks. I don't know when, or if, we will see some of those folks truly distance themselves, though. You know they would like to, but at the same time, if DT wins, then they get to face his ire for four years. And some of those folks will be up for reelection in 2, with him rallying for their primary opponents.

Even if DJT loses he is speculated to launch a news network, so he would rally against those who deserted him from that platform, which I would image also has to be part of the calculus of abandoning ship for Rs.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Even if DJT loses he is speculated to launch a news network, so he would rally against those who deserted him from that platform, which I would image also has to be part of the calculus of abandoning ship for Rs.

I have no doubt that will happen. And even if it doesn't, he will remain a really loud voice. What I wonder, though, is if those still in office will listen at that point? I mean, if he loses this coming election, he goes out as a one time President, which is a stigma on its own.
Those in office can easily ignore him; it's not like his base isn't still going to be on their side, they are GOP after all.

[AustinDevil]

Prurient interests aside, Trump has made his alleged wealth accumulation a voucher for his abilities. So I think a lot of folks are curious to see if he really is the Wizard of Oz, or if he is the man behind the curtain instead.

But I do not think it moves the needle at all, agreed. If you wanted to see his taxes in 2016, you still do. If you didn't care in 2016, you likely still don't care now. I don't particularly care one way or the other, although I am very happy that the rule of law has been upheld in these opinions as I read them.

I think OldPhiKap hits the needle on the head about the *only* reason anyone would care about Trump's net worth. But that's not at all the main public interest that is asserted for why the President's finances--any President, that is--are a matter of public concern: to see to whom the President may be beholden as a debtor, first and foremost. With President Trump specifically, there are unique and relevant questions about his various businesses, especially the hotels and resorts.

The answers to those questions matter, and would certainly move the needle among those who give the President the benefit of the doubt thus far.

https://www.propublica.org/article/w...ps-tax-returns

[dudog84]

I have no doubt that will happen. And even if it doesn't, he will remain a really loud voice. What I wonder, though, is if those still in office will listen at that point? I mean, if he loses this coming election, he goes out as a one time President, which is a stigma on its own.
Those in office can easily ignore him; it's not like his base isn't still going to be on their side, they are GOP after all.

They listen to a lot of other people who have never even held office, talk radio has shown some power. I've never really understood the one-termer stigma, they still managed to get elected to the most powerful office on the planet once. Pretty exclusive club.

But I don't get a lot of things nowadays. I check in on political shows to see what's going on but rarely make it through an entire show. And they certainly don't make my decisions for me. Echo chambers bore me.

What happens in the GOP if Trump loses may be more interesting than what happens in governing in the near future.

[swood1000]

Not sure if many will peel away or not, but I gotta think that if things have not improved by Labor Day (Sept. 7 -- a little less than two months out from the election) Republicans will need to decide whether to take the Major Kong ride down to the ground. ...

I don't see how they can get rid of Trump as the candidate this year. He clearly will remain in the race and will retain his core supporters, making the alternative candidate nominated at the Republican convention the third party candidate with no hope of success. Such a course of action might make sense to the never-Trumpers hoping to restore purity to the Republican party but nobody could think that this could possibly bring electoral success in 2020.

[PackMan97]

I don't see how they can get rid of Trump as the candidate this year. He clearly will remain in the race and will retain his core supporters, making the alternative candidate nominated at the Republican convention the third party candidate with no hope of success. Such a course of action might make sense to the never-Trumpers hoping to restore purity to the Republican party but nobody could think that this could possibly bring electoral success in 2020.

I agree, the decision on Trump was made during impeachment.

He's the Republican horse and they have to ride him now. Getting rid of him might bring back some Reagan Republicans, but it will alienate Trump Republicans. There is really a no-win situation right now. The best that Biden can do is stand aside and let Trump be Trump.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't see how they can get rid of Trump as the candidate this year. He clearly will remain in the race and will retain his core supporters, making the alternative candidate nominated at the Republican convention the third party candidate with no hope of success. Such a course of action might make sense to the never-Trumpers hoping to restore purity to the Republican party but nobody could think that this could possibly bring electoral success in 2020.

Sorry, I did not mean replacing Trump on the ticket. I meant distancing yourself from him if you are a Republican congressperson running for re-election.

Sorry if it was not clear. I absolutely agree that Trump will be the top of the ticket. (Now, Mike Pence on the other hand, might want to listen for footsteps behind him . . . .)

[swood1000]

(Now, Mike Pence on the other hand, might want to listen for footsteps behind him . . . .)

That definitely could shake up the race. I could certainly see it happening, maybe giving Pence a nice Cabinet position or a choice ambassadorship in order to keep him happy and avoid offending the religious right.

Are there any black woman Republicans available? Condoleeza Rice? Nikki Haley fills half the bill.

[dudog84]

That definitely could shake up the race. I could certainly see it happening, maybe giving Pence a nice Cabinet position or a choice ambassadorship in order to keep him happy and avoid offending the religious right.

Are there any black woman Republicans available? Condoleeza Rice? Nikki Haley fills half the bill.

You may want to edit that.

[dudog84]

Gotta trust U.S. News & World Report, right? Aren't they the ones who do the college rankings? Seriously, I think they're pretty non-partisan.

Pretty good assessment of the state of the race, with usual caveats that it's a snapshot. Though with less than 4 months to go, it is getting down to crunch time.

They move PA and WI from toss-up to lean D, move OH from lean R to toss-up, and move AK and MO from safe R to lean R. Also say that are leaving FL, NC, and AZ as toss-up even though the polling has been consistently pro-Biden, likewise leaving TX, GA, and IA as lean R even though polling has been tight.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...Z0l?li=BBnbfcL

[swood1000]

You may want to edit that.

Nikki Haley is a woman but is not African American.