2020 Presidential Election

[OldPhiKap]

Someone better check his blood pressure. Seriously. Although maybe venting helps?

[Tripping William]

Trump, in the calm manner we have come to expect, is now reacting on Twitter . . . .

He ain't happy.

I hate to say I told you so, but ....

[OldPhiKap]

Favorite line so far from the Congressional case, after setting forth four factors to be considered by the trial court:

"Other considerations may be pertinent as well; one case every two centuries does not afford enough experience for an exhaustive list."

(FWIW, the four factors listed seem pretty well-considered from a legal point of view. I am sure the justices know that it could just as easily be a Democrat in the White House fighting off Republican Congressional requests. In other words, my quick scan is that the opinion is politically neutral and well-written).

[Tripping William]

Someone better check his blood pressure. Seriously. Although maybe venting helps?

Nah. If no one checks his blood pressure he won’t have hypertension.

[dudog84]

-- they likely show some embarrassing deductions (remember HRC deducting the donation of her used underwear to Goodwill back in the 1980's?)

Ugh. No I don't, thank God.

For all the breath-holding and hand-wringing, my strong belief is that these cases do not move the needle in any significant way. Pro-Trumpers and anti-Trumpers are locked in, and this ain't gonna matter to many undecideds. People have their beliefs about what he's done and don't need to see the proof one way or the other, or they don't care.

It's COVID and the economy. Period.

Where this matters is his disposition after leaving office.

[jv001]

Ugh. No I don't, thank God.

For all the breath-holding and hand-wringing, my strong belief is that these cases do not move the needle in any significant way. Pro-Trumpers and anti-Trumpers are locked in, and this ain't gonna matter to many undecideds. People have their beliefs about what he's done and don't need to see the proof one way or the other, or they don't care.

It's COVID and the economy. Period.

Where this matters is his disposition after leaving office.

I agree with your take on pro-Trumpers and anti-Trumpers being locked in. But there's another block of voters to be considered. The voters that don't like Trump and some of the things he's done over his stay in the White House. But there are voters that do like some of his policies and hate many of the Democrat polices. Of course it's impossible to know if these voters have made up their minds. Unless you happen to be a mind reader(not talking about you). I agree these cases don't move the needle in any significant way.

[Jeffrey]

I use tax returns all the time to impeach folks in business cases. They are a wonderland.

-- they likely show valuations of property (low) that differ from sworn financial statements given to banks as to the same assets (high)
-- they show related businesses and creditors
-- they show, in this case, how Trump handled the payment to Stormy Daniels (remember, he is "Individual 1" in the Cohen case)
-- they likely show that he claims a much lower gross and net worth than he claims publicly
-- they likely show that he does not really "own" some of the assets he claims are his (or that his ownership percentage is a minority share)
-- they likely show some embarrassing deductions (remember HRC deducting the donation of her used underwear to Goodwill back in the 1980's?)
-- they likely show a lack of donations to charitable entities, if reports are to be believed
-- they may well show problems with the Trump charities above and beyond those to which they recently entered a consent judgment

Oh, they're lots of fun.

Another excellent post, OPK.

Money tells the actual story... follow the money!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Ugh. No I don't, thank God.

For all the breath-holding and hand-wringing, my strong belief is that these cases do not move the needle in any significant way. Pro-Trumpers and anti-Trumpers are locked in, and this ain't gonna matter to many undecideds. People have their beliefs about what he's done and don't need to see the proof one way or the other, or they don't care.

It's COVID and the economy. Period.

Where this matters is his disposition after leaving office.

Yeah, this doesn't move any needles. Either you are waiting on pins and needles to find out Trump's net worth or...

No, I seriously doubt anyone is doing that.

[Jeffrey]

Yeah, this doesn't move any needles. Either you are waiting on pins and needles to find out Trump's net worth or...

No, I seriously doubt anyone is doing that.

Potential heirs, lenders, and business partners might like to know his net worth. Not sure why hardly anyone else would truly care.

[OldPhiKap]

Money tells the actual story... follow the money!

Yup, and see how inconsistent the sworn stories usually are between the one told to Uncle Sam, and the one told to a lender. It gets them almost every time.

[camion]

Potential heirs, lenders, and business partners might like to know his net worth. Not sure why hardly anyone else would truly care.

I suppose I'm curious as to how elastic the net worth and real estate values are depending upon the situation.

[OldPhiKap]

Potential heirs, lenders, and business partners might like to know his net worth. Not sure why hardly anyone else would truly care.

Prurient interests aside, Trump has made his alleged wealth accumulation a voucher for his abilities. So I think a lot of folks are curious to see if he really is the Wizard of Oz, or if he is the man behind the curtain instead.

But I do not think it moves the needle at all, agreed. If you wanted to see his taxes in 2016, you still do. If you didn't care in 2016, you likely still don't care now. I don't particularly care one way or the other, although I am very happy that the rule of law has been upheld in these opinions as I read them.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Prurient interests aside, Trump has made his alleged wealth accumulation a voucher for his abilities. So I think a lot of folks are curious to see if he really is the Wizard of Oz, or if he is the man behind the curtain instead.

But I do not think it moves the needle at all, agreed. If you wanted to see his taxes in 2016, you still do. If you didn't care in 2016, you likely still don't care now. I don't particularly care one way or the other, although I am very happy that the rule of law has been upheld in these opinions as I read them.

As I noted above, I agree that this is likely a big nothing. Most people's minds are made up. To the really helpful list of issues that will illuminate above, most of the answers are pretty well known - it is pretty well established that Trump doesn't give much to charity; he has very little financial interest in many of the buildings with his name on them but rather they are largely marketing deals (which are quite lucrative and involve almost no risk), etc. A lot of the potential issues and details are way over the heads of 95% of Americans, and 95% of Americans will also hear what they want to hear about them.

All that being said, I think the one thing that I think can come out of this (lawyers, please correct me) is if there is something that comes up that can be prosecuted. Unclear to me whether there is. And even if something did come up, I'm sure it would be an incredibly long, drawn-out legal process that would drag deep into his second term if he is re-elected.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Prurient interests aside, Trump has made his alleged wealth accumulation a voucher for his abilities. So I think a lot of folks are curious to see if he really is the Wizard of Oz, or if he is the man behind the curtain instead.

But I do not think it moves the needle at all, agreed. If you wanted to see his taxes in 2016, you still do. If you didn't care in 2016, you likely still don't care now. I don't particularly care one way or the other, although I am very happy that the rule of law has been upheld in these opinions as I read them.

I did want to see in 2016. Now, I could not care less.

[Jeffrey]

I suppose I'm curious as to how elastic the net worth and real estate values are depending upon the situation.

My guess is his actual net worth is very elastic given Trump’s historic willingness to utilize substantial leverage. Of course, without his historic leverage utilization we probably would not know his name.

[JasonEvans]

Folks, analysis of what the SCOTUS rulings mean for the election are fine but we don't all need to post whether we individually care to see the tax returns. That is the kind of thing that could result in partisan squabbles and is certainly outside the bounds of the mandate of this thread.

Thanks.

[Jeffrey]

Prurient interests aside, Trump has made his alleged wealth accumulation a voucher for his abilities. So I think a lot of folks are curious to see if he really is the Wizard of Oz, or if he is the man behind the curtain instead.

What exactly is being sought? Mostly tax returns or are all current loan agreements, partnership agreements, etc. also being requested? Trump’s true wealth would be hard to calculate. Goodwill would be particularly difficult to accurately value and a substantial component of his net worth.

[OldPhiKap]

What exactly is being sought? Mostly tax returns or are all current loan agreements, partnership agreements, etc. also being requested?

From page 2 of the NY AG opinion:

In the summer of 2018, the New York County District Attorney’s Office opened an investigation into what it
opaquely describes as “business transactions involving multiple individuals whose conduct may have violated state
law.” Brief for Respondent Vance 2. A year later, the office—acting on behalf of a grand jury—served a subpoena
duces tecum (essentially a request to produce evidence) on
Mazars USA, LLP, the personal accounting firm of President Donald J. Trump. The subpoena directed Mazars to
produce financial records relating to the President and
business organizations affiliated with him, including “[t]ax
returns and related schedules,” from “2011 to the present.”
App. to Pet. for Cert. 119a.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinion...9-635_o7jq.pdf


(For history buffs, or fans of Hamilton, there is a pretty lengthy discussion in the opinion of Aaron Burr's treason trial and his efforts to subpoena documents from Thomas Jefferson).

[LasVegas]

Nate Silver had a good point today on Twitter. The trump tax discussion has been in the media a ton of the last few years and it really hasn’t moved the needle all that much. Covid/economy/race relations HAS moved the needle. So if you are Trump, you would love for the media to go back to talking about tax returns.

[Steven43]

Nah. If no one checks his blood pressure he won’t have hypertension.

Classic