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  1. #81
    Trump is already running. As Boston Devil noted in the midterm thread, he officially filed his re-election campaign with the FEC on January 20, 2017, just hours after his inauguration. He has been raising (and spending) money since. He has raised over $100mm and spent more than half of that (include millions on legal fees and payments to Trump properties and Trump companies).

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    California
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    So you would take the over at 18.5?

    It might be a fun poll question. We'd need to have some clarity on what constitutes a candidate.
    You know what would be even more fun? A fantasy draft! We could get some people together, have them draft their candidates, and award fantasy points based on the percentage of support the candidates have in the most recent Gallup poll the day of each DNC debate. I.e., if one of your draft picks never declared or has dropped out, he or she receives 0 points for that debate. If he or she qualifies to participate in the debate and is polling at 25% in the last poll released before the debate, you get 25 points for that debate. Add up the totals as we go, and declare a winner after the last DNC debate (who will probably end up being whichever person drafted the eventual nominee, but not necessarily).

  3. #83
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I can't imagine there is a Vegas line. I don't think Vegas is actually allowed to take wagers on non-sporting events.
    Don't know what Oddshark.com is, but their odds as of 12/30/18:

    1. Will Trump be impeached by the House?
    Yes +100
    No -140

    2. Will Trump las his full first term?
    Yes -300
    No +200

    3. Will Trump leave office via impeachment?
    Yes +600
    No -1500

    4. Will Trump resign the presidency in his first term?
    Yes +350
    No -600
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  4. #84
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    Let's make a couple of things perfectly clear:

    * There is NO WAY Trump does not run for re-election. He loves the spotlight. He loves the limelight. Stepping down would be admitting defeat and a sign of weakness. Zero chance. It will not happen.

    * There is NO WAY another GOP candidate runs against Trump for the nomination. Anyone who did would get smoked. And they know it. Trump is still wildly popular with the GOP base.

    These two things are givens to me. What are not givens is a) will Trump be impeached, b) what the Mueller report will state, c) are there any major indictments coming down and d) who the Dems will nominate.

    Personally, I hope it's not Bernie or Warren, mainly because I think they galvanize the other side too much. Would love to see Biden and Booker, or O'Rourke, or K Harris. Agree with J Evans that it will not be two white men.

    Can't believe this thing is 22 months away...
    Trump can very easily not run. I tend to agree that he will, but it isn't hard for him to pull out. If he wants to save face, he just says that his business demands his full attention, he would rather live in NY, he has done everything he has set out to accomplish, or some other such statement. Those who love him will believe it. Those who hate him will think it is a cop out but will rejoice that he is gone. Trump's most prominent character trait is his ability to convince himself that everything he does is the biggest, the best, flawless, etc. so he would have no trouble doing this.

    The two things that seem to drive him are money and power. There isn't much more powerful than President of the United States, so from that perspective, he wants to stay. But he has to determine what is the most profitable alternative - does he want to start really cashing in on his presidency sooner rather than later (some would argue he already is)? By leaving office he could immediately write the books, do the TV shows, etc. I am sure that is very tempting to him. I am not sure how concerned he is with his own mortality but he is not getting any younger.

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Trump can very easily not run. I tend to agree that he will, but it isn't hard for him to pull out. If he wants to save face, he just says that his business demands his full attention, he would rather live in NY, he has done everything he has set out to accomplish, or some other such statement. Those who love him will believe it. Those who hate him will think it is a cop out but will rejoice that he is gone. Trump's most prominent character trait is his ability to convince himself that everything he does is the biggest, the best, flawless, etc. so he would have no trouble doing this.

    The two things that seem to drive him are money and power. There isn't much more powerful than President of the United States, so from that perspective, he wants to stay. But he has to determine what is the most profitable alternative - does he want to start really cashing in on his presidency sooner rather than later (some would argue he already is)? By leaving office he could immediately write the books, do the TV shows, etc. I am sure that is very tempting to him. I am not sure how concerned he is with his own mortality but he is not getting any younger.
    He is the unnamed coconspirator in an indictment with a guilty plea for a charge with a (I believe) 5-year statute of limitations. Doesn’t he really need to stay in office at least that long for the protection of the DOJ guidance on not indicting a sitting President? He’s got to run.

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    I'll take someone who's got a ton of experience in politics without too much baggage and is a middle of the road policy wonk who knows how to compromise in order to get things done. I'm sure I'm in the minority.
    I wonder how long before nikki Haley will run for v.p or president?I believe she would be a attractive choice for v.p to a presidential candidate.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by wavedukefan70s View Post
    I wonder how long before nikki Haley will run for v.p or president?I believe she would be a attractive choice for v.p to a presidential candidate.
    Haley is the heir apparent and might be able to cut into the Dems huge lead among women. I doubt Trump ditches Pence, but I would expect Haley to be a leading contender at the top of the ticket in 24.

  8. #88
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    In other news... Elizabeth Warren has a kick off event in Iowa tonight. The audio on her microphone went out for about 10 minutes so she had to scream for the crowd to hear her. Given the way her popularity has waned in the past couple years, the “yelling but no one can hear me” thing is pretty funny.

    By the way, the difference in where Warren‘s political capital is today versus where it was four years ago is an important cautionary tale. I wonder if Beto is paying attention to that story.

    Jason “sorta like how everyone loves the backup QB... huh?” Evans

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In other news... Elizabeth Warren has a kick off event in Iowa tonight. The audio on her microphone went out for about 10 minutes so she had to scream for the crowd to hear her. Given the way her popularity has waned in the past couple years, the “yelling but no one can hear me” thing is pretty funny.

    By the way, the difference in where Warren‘s political capital is today versus where it was four years ago is an important cautionary tale. I wonder if Beto is paying attention to that story.

    Jason “sorta like how everyone loves the backup QB... huh?” Evans
    “The Bobby Jindal Effect”
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I can't imagine there is a Vegas line. I don't think Vegas is actually allowed to take wagers on non-sporting events.

    As for how many, lets do some quick figuring.

    • Declared or already have exploratory committee (I'm not counting crackpots and others who have no shot): Warren, Castro, Rep. John Delaney, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (4)
    • Major politicians who look really, really likely to run: Beto, Biden, Booker, Brown, Bloomberg (the five Bs), Harris, Sanders, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Casey (10)
    • Lesser known politicians who have expressed some interest in running: South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard; LA Mayor Eric Garcetti; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; fmr. Attorney Gen. Eric Holder; Va Gov. Terry McAuliffe; Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan; CA Rep. Eric Swalwell; losing FLA/GA governor candidates Stacy Abrams and Andrew Gillum; New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu (11)
    • Celebs/Businessmen who look likely to run: Billionaire Tom Steyer; Fmr. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz; Oprah; Angelina Jolie; George Clooney; the Rock; Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg (7)

    So, that is 32 folks and while some of them clearly won't get in (no way all those celebs get in the race) I strongly suspect we end up with something like 20 truly viable candidates. A lot of them will quickly realize they simply are not getting any traction (and any money) and drop out shortly after coming into the race, but it is going to be a very crowded field into at least the fall.

    -Jason "I am sure I missed a couple... and I bet there will be a surprise or two as well" Evans
    John Kerry?

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Nikki Haley? Why and how and on what grounds would she pull Democratic voters?

  12. #92
    As far as Biden and Sanders go, there a couple of issues that have not gotten talked about that will come into play that will make them less attractive. Biden has run before and has shown himself to be a terrible campaigner. He talks too much and invariably puts his foot in his mouth. Those of us old enough to remember, lived through him plagarizing speeches in the Eighties and being caught by Maureen Dowdand forced to drop out of the campaign. Then there is the Anita Hill issue. Those hearings were televised which means there is film footage out there of his patronizing, dismissive comments of her. That will be a real albatross when running during the #MeToo era. As for Bernie, Hillary was somewhat hands off with him in hopes of avoiding a bruising, divisive battle (she might be regretting that at this point) but he was/is actually a fairly flawed candidate. He was actually opposed to gay marriage initially, voted for Bill Clinton’s tough crime package and, as that evidences, has a voting record that is anything but progressive. In addition, identity issues are important to the left and he is actually a bit tone deaf on that front. Moreover, once the other side decides he has to be dealt with, likely, more unflattering issues will surface. The NY times already ran a piece about the unaddressed sexual harassment during the ‘16 campaign. I see himcrashing and burning earlier in the primary cycle.
    I would not write off Liz Warren quite yet. While she has had some missteps, you might find that, like how the attacks on Pelosie actually angered people, voters will rally around her as the latest woman to be unfairly attacked by a strain of misogynistic voters.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    You have certainly identified one possible scenario for him to not run.
    I just don’t see it. As much as he may hate the actual job of governing, he LOVES the attention and the constant media coverage that the presidency brings him, good or bad. And he loves doing campaign rallies too.

    It’s highly unlikely that he would voluntarily step away from that. He loves a good fight, and he relishes an ugly fight even more. And 2020 promises to be UG-LY.

  14. #94
    I have a close friend who is a HS Econ teacher. Apparently there is a YouTube mash-up of Biden hugging a little too long and being a little too handsy with young ladies. Nothing horrible by itself but, apparently, the youngsters think Uncle Biden is pervy.

    As for Nikki Haley, I’m forever in her debt for removing that stupid flag from the statehouse. I truly thought that would not happen in my lifetime. Maybe she was being opportunistic in the wake of the Mother Emmanuel shooting but it sure seemed courageous at the time. Unfortunately for Duke it allowed NCAA to schedule tournament games in SC again, but I digress. I’m an independent voter raised by Democrats. In SC that makes me a flaming liberal and I would vote for Nikky Haley over a Socialist any day.
    Last edited by lotusland; 01-05-2019 at 08:59 AM.

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Nikki Haley? Why and how and on what grounds would she pull Democratic voters?
    You know Mike, I'll have to ask my wife. She's a Democrat who likes Nikki Haley. These are interesting times that are putting some people at heterodoxical odds with their typical political leanings, sometimes inscrutably so. On the other hand, I know it's strengthening and polarizing those political leanings in many folks even more.

    I'll be interested to see how things unfold in my family. Like many of your families I suspect, ours is wonderfully, and sometimes maddeningly, politically diverse. You have moderate Chamber of Commerce type R's (like me, who voted for Clinton, and my father in law, who voted for Trump), moderate Clintonian/Obama loving Democrats (like my wife), hard core Sanders/AOC progressives (like my brother, who is married to a Muslim, and my 22 year old niece who is Muslim but engaged to a Protestant Christian - yes, that's true!), devout Catholic pro-life Mike Pence supporting types (like my mother-in-law), and blue collar Democrats who support Trump (my mom). My brother and I often joke that had our dad still been alive in 2016 - a fire-breathing liberal if there ever was one, think the Ragin Cajun - Trump surely would have killed him.

    Thankfully, even in these trying times, we've held it all together. Thanksgiving is certainly interesting but it never gets ugly. I've heard horror stories of families breaking apart and not speaking to each other. Rather than putting strains on our family though, it's actually, I think, made us better at listening to each other and more respectful and gracious of each other's differences. I've even seen some people change their minds on some things.


    Which gets back to my wife and your question. Again, I'll have to ask her what she likes about Haley, but in the context of our family, I know she's learned to be more open and look for areas of agreement where she may have not seen them before.
    Last edited by Philadukie; 01-05-2019 at 09:35 AM.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by SueAxe View Post
    As far as Biden and Sanders go, there a couple of issues that have not gotten talked about that will come into play that will make them less attractive. Biden has run before and has shown himself to be a terrible campaigner. He talks too much and invariably puts his foot in his mouth. Those of us old enough to remember, lived through him plagarizing speeches in the Eighties and being caught by Maureen Dowdand forced to drop out of the campaign. Then there is the Anita Hill issue. Those hearings were televised which means there is film footage out there of his patronizing, dismissive comments of her. That will be a real albatross when running during the #MeToo era. As for Bernie, Hillary was somewhat hands off with him in hopes of avoiding a bruising, divisive battle (she might be regretting that at this point) but he was/is actually a fairly flawed candidate. He was actually opposed to gay marriage initially, voted for Bill Clinton’s tough crime package and, as that evidences, has a voting record that is anything but progressive. In addition, identity issues are important to the left and he is actually a bit tone deaf on that front. Moreover, once the other side decides he has to be dealt with, likely, more unflattering issues will surface. The NY times already ran a piece about the unaddressed sexual harassment during the ‘16 campaign. I see himcrashing and burning earlier in the primary cycle.
    I would not write off Liz Warren quite yet. While she has had some missteps, you might find that, like how the attacks on Pelosie actually angered people, voters will rally around her as the latest woman to be unfairly attacked by a strain of misogynistic voters.
    Putting your foot in your mouth is no longer the deal breaker it once was.

    I agree that Biden doesn't necessarily bring out new voters and wouldn't make a great candidate this go round, but we also have to acknowledge that the rules have clearly changed dramatically when no one was paying attention.

    I don't even know what it would take for someone to make a gaffe anymore.

  17. #97
    Wasn’t aware the gop was considering doing away with the primary this time. As an independent who tends to vote for republicans, that’s a bad look. It would likely add fuel to the “trump is a fascist” theory. Thinking about it some more, a good primary challenge might actually help trump... His voters tend to get more fired up when he fights back.

  18. #98
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by Philadukie View Post
    I just don’t see it. As much as he may hate the actual job of governing, he LOVES the attention and the constant media coverage that the presidency brings him, good or bad. And he loves doing campaign rallies too.

    It’s highly unlikely that he would voluntarily step away from that. He loves a good fight, and he relishes an ugly fight even more. And 2020 promises to be UG-LY.
    Just to be clear, I think that is one possible scenario, but not the most probable. I think it is more (but not the most) likely that he doesn't complete his first term in office.

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    I took a look at our 2016 thread (which was started in Feb of 2015, so we aren't that far off for 2020) and I had opened it with a prediction from Nate Silver.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/clint...151120593.html

    He did get it correct that HRC (unannounced at the time) would be the Dem candidate, but Trump was nowhere in his future. In fact, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker were tied for his bet. Pretty fun to look back at that, and put it in perspective where we are now.
    Long story short, predict now all you want, you will likely be wrong.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Thanks, PhilaDukie, for the thoughtful response. I’ll look forward to hearing about your wife’s thoughts on Haley.

    Would love to chat at greater length offline. Much to learn from you, it’s clear.

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