2020 Presidential Election

[Bluedog]

Ok, back (hopefully) on topic, how could Trump and Republicans improve their electoral odds?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/h...lectoral-odds/
Some possible suggestions:
1. New running mate - would that ever happen and could it this late in the game?!?
2. Supreme court vacancy - he obviously can't control this, but if it happens, could play it up and its importance; this may have been a factor in 2016
3. Culture wars - maybe we avoid this one
4. Overhaul of economic and COVID-19 policies
...

I found the podcast somewhat interesting, but don't think those are that actionable or in line with how Trump operates as he doesn't like to change stances due to public pressure and instead usually doubles down. Of course, I do think #2 could give him a boost if that came to pass. I think Trump is probably going to try multiple strategies and hope something sticks.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Ok, back (hopefully) on topic, how could Trump and Republicans improve their electoral odds?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/h...lectoral-odds/
Some possible suggestions:
1. New running mate - would that ever happen?!?
2. Supreme court vacancy - he obviously can't control this, but if it happens, could play it up and its importance; this may have been a factor in 2016
3. Culture wars - maybe we avoid this one
4. Overhaul of economic and COVID-19 policies
...

I found the podcast somewhat interesting, but don't think those are that actionable or in line with how Trump operates as he doesn't like to change stances due to public pressure and instead usually doubles down. Of course, I do think #2 could give him a boost if that came to pass.

There has been conversation about the possibility of Alito and/or Thomas retiring after this term, then Trump would be able to replace them with a much younger judge (Duke alum Justin Walker, who was just named to the DC Circuit, is a popular option - he is 38). Trump can't "control" this per se but there can be conversations. McConnell has made it clear that he would fill the seat despite his statements four years ago about approving judges in election years (https://www.npr.org/2019/05/29/72784...sal-of-2016-st). I can't (and won't) speculate as to the influence this would have on the election.

[dudog84]

Thought this was a really informative piece by Time on the Electoral College, stemming out of the Supreme Court ruling. Turns out it does not really favor Rs, small states, or rural states as many seem to believe. Counter-intuitive, I know, and my head is spinning a bit wondering if the writer is spinning the data somehow. And did you know that we are only 74 "electoral votes" away from something called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (great link with plenty of info, including the status of your state), which is a much easier task than a Constitutional Amendment. TX and FL would almost get us there. Worth a read, but TL;DR, states will pledge their electors to the national popular vote, not their own.

https://time.com/5863481/supreme-cou...toral-college/

Here's the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact link if you don't want to read the article.

https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

My main complaint with the Electoral College is that every 4 years a small handful of states, and therefore voters, have an out-sized effect on the election. I live in FL, and for all intents and purposes my vote is much more important than others here who live in CA, NY, OK, AL, etc. One person, one vote, each with the same weight. Would also head off a plethora of potential problems. Plus, it's not fair that I have to put up with more political ads than y'all.

[CameronBlue]

Bits and pieces are beginning to emerge from Mary Trump's tell-all and obviously they are not flattering. The President allegedly paid someone to take his SATs for him. So begins the next chapter of this President's rather dysfunctional term of office and no one is betting the needle will move much but the toxicity of the conversation is just off the charts.

[Bluedog]

Bits and pieces are beginning to emerge from Mary Trump's tell-all and obviously they are not flattering. The President allegedly paid someone to take his SATs for him. So begins the next chapter of this President's rather dysfunctional term of office and no one is betting the needle will move much but the toxicity of the conversation is just off the charts.

Bill Kristol: "On Trump and the SAT: He's always been against testing."

[OldPhiKap]

Supreme Court to issue opinions tomorrow. Traditionally they are announced in open court starting at 10 am, which I assume is tomorrow's protocol.

It did not announce that this was the last session, so folks smarter than I am suggest that tomorrow will not resolve all outstanding cases.

[Phredd3]

I think we can all agree that banjos and accordions are a great tools for promoting social distancing though, amiright?

Absolutely, but bagpipes are the Grand Champion.

[SouthernDukie]

Since me stating Florida is a coin flip seems to be controversial, I’ll provide the following link as to why recent history is on my side. Over the last 20 years only one presidential election has been won by more than three percentage points.

And for the record, I’m not stating that I know every Floridians’ view. I’ve only said that I believe the state will be a coin flip, and not a rout like some current polling suggests. And that’s all I’m saying. Nothing more. Nothing less.

https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida

[cato]

I’ve only said that I believe the state will be a coin flip, and not a rout like some current polling suggests.

I too have also assumed that FL will be a coin flip, especially since I expect polls to tighten between now and Election Day. So I decided to look at where polling stands today, and from the 538 aggregate, it looks like Biden opened up a 2.5% lead in mid-April which grew slowly through mid-June, when it was 3.5%. Then he doubled his lead in mid-June, and has held on for the past 3 weeks+ with a lead of 6-7%.

See here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/florida/

I was curious how this compared to polls from 2016. I did not find a similar aggregate from 538 from 2016, but found one from RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5635.html

Interestingly, the race between HRC and Trump narrowed from early June to early July, tightening from HRC having a roughly 5% lead to under 2%, before widening back to 4% by the end of July. After that the race went back and forth between a 4-5% HRC lead to a dead heat, with Trump pulling ahead a few times, but only slightly.

A significant part of me still believes this will be a coin toss by November. But another part of me looks at the Trump approval numbers and wonders how he can go from the low end of his range (42% or so) to the high end (47%) by Election Day.

Note that Trump outperformed the final RCP average by 1.6% in 2016. He’s most definitely in a hole right now.

[chris13]

Why would you “cut” funds when crime rates are rising, and fast?

The number one thing governments are responsible for is the protection of its people, right?

From a campaign strategy response, I think what the Democrats would say is that protection includes public health and responding to pandemics, and the current administration has failed badly on that count.

Let me be clear, I'm not making a judgment on the Federal response to the crisis in keeping with the guidelines of this topic. I do expect the Democrats to make the case that the response has been subpar.

We will see which argument resonates more in November.

[PackMan97]

Interestingly, the race between HRC and Trump narrowed from early June to early July, tightening from HRC having a roughly 5% lead to under 2%, before widening back to 4% by the end of July. After that the race went back and forth between a 4-5% HRC lead to a dead heat, with Trump pulling ahead a few times, but only slightly.

I wonder what the "enthusiasm" numbers look like right now. It would seem to me that a lot of more traditional Republicans and conservatives are not excited about the election while almost all Democrats and liberals are ready to get out the vote. Have any recent polls included the question about how excited or determined folks are with regards to voting in the general election.

I can only speak for myself, but this is probably the election I am least enthused about since I started voting in '92. The 2004 being the election that is currently holding that title.

[camion]

I wonder what the "enthusiasm" numbers look like right now. It would seem to me that a lot of more traditional Republicans and conservatives are not excited about the election while almost all Democrats and liberals are ready to get out the vote. Have any recent polls included the question about how excited or determined folks are with regards to voting in the general election.

I can only speak for myself, but this is probably the election I am least enthused about since I started voting in '92. The 2004 being the election that is currently holding that title.

I wouldn't use the term "enthusiastic" to describe myself (and only myself). I think "determined" is a better descriptor.

[dudog84]

I wonder what the "enthusiasm" numbers look like right now. It would seem to me that a lot of more traditional Republicans and conservatives are not excited about the election while almost all Democrats and liberals are ready to get out the vote. Have any recent polls included the question about how excited or determined folks are with regards to voting in the general election.

I can only speak for myself, but this is probably the election I am least enthused about since I started voting in '92. The 2004 being the election that is currently holding that title.

I wouldn't use the term "enthusiastic" to describe myself (and only myself). I think "determined" is a better descriptor.

I'd like to see a poll that instead of asking about enthusiasm, asks who wants to vote Right Now!

[jv001]

It looks like the strategy of the Republican party will be to hit hard at Biden's lack of coherent speaking, law and order, leaning far to the left and going socialist, Trump will stay away from the sexual assault charge. They would be fools to go that route when Trump has been accused of more of those charges in his lifetime. Biden will naturally go after Trump over his handling of the pandemic, he'll go after him on the economy, unemployment, and probably the accusations made against him in recent book releases. This may very well be the two biggest mudslinging campaigns in history.

I see that my favorite candidate for Democrat VP, Keisha Lance Bottoms has tested positive for Covid-19. This was not the only bad news for her with the 4th of July shootings in Atlanta where 8 year old Secorier Turner was shot and killed during a protest. Mayor Bottoms is getting negative views from all sides. Some people are clamoring for her to be proactive in law and order and stop the protests. Others are calling for her to be more active in the BLM movement. She can't win no matter what she does. I'm afraid she will not be in the final list of candidates for Biden's running mate.

[PackMan97]

I wouldn't use the term "enthusiastic" to describe myself (and only myself). I think "determined" is a better descriptor.

Whatever you want to call it, I think turnout is going to be the key.

[OldPhiKap]

Supreme Court to issue Trump tax opinions tomorrow; it will be the last day of the term.

(FWIW, the two religious liberty cases today are not terribly surprising and I don't think move the needle very much. The Oklahoma territory case is potentially fascinating, and will also be announced tomorrow).

[Jeffrey]

I can only speak for myself, but this is probably the election I am least enthused about since I started voting in '92. The 2004 being the election that is currently holding that title.

Then my theory may be wrong. I think 2020 voters will be more focused on a single issue than traditionally. For example, I think Trump will lose voters, who usually vote Republican, based solely on his Covid response. I think Biden needs to be very careful with his law and order response. I think there’s more opportunity to lose traditional support, than normal, and both candidates have the potential to make a major error.

[OldPhiKap]

Then my theory may be wrong. I think 2020 voters will be more focused on a single issue than traditionally. For example, I think Trump will lose voters, who usually vote Republican, based solely on his Covid response. I think Biden needs to be very careful with his law and order response. I think there’s more opportunity to lose traditional support, than normal, and both candidates have the potential to make a major error.

I think you've hit the two fulcrums. Plus the wild card of the economy, of course.

As COVID cases rise in the red states, Trump is doubling down on school and business openings. Lots of Republican governors are trying to pump the brakes. It is an anxious time down here, to say the least.

My son's school opens in 26 days and my daughter's college starts in a little over a month. Our cases are skyrocketing down here. The drive to open schools is high risk for Trump, and so far his gambles on COVID have generally backfired. Huge flare-ups in conservative suburbs would be a big problem for Trump to hold my state (Georgia) I think given the purpling demographics.

[Phredd3]

Whatever you want to call it, I think turnout is going to be the key.

And on that note, I saw a report (can't find the link at the moment) that new voter registrations are way, way down this year. That's not surprising, under the prevailing conditions, but could definitely have an effect. Younger voters skew Democratic, although they are also less likely to actually turn out one registered, but Democrats must be concerned about how to bring registrations back to more normal levels between now and November.

[OldPhiKap]

Poll geek Nirvana:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lraqqdhd...nTabReport.pdf

On the issue of enthusiasm for/against a candidate:


Biden -- 21% enthusiastic for him, 34% upset with him.

Trump -- 28% enthusiastic for him, 47% upset with him.


Of Biden voters, 42% voting FOR Biden, 57% AGAINST Trump.

Of Trump voters, 74% voting FOR Trump, 19% AGAINST Biden.


Lots of good stuff in there, pretty thorough. Poll is B-rated by Nate.