2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

Joe’ official.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...tic-nomination

That was a real nail-biter.

[bundabergdevil]

That was a real nail-biter.

It’s 2020 and we still have 5 months before the election, it’s as likely the final candidates will be a reanimated Harambe versus a shoe as ithey will be Biden and Trump.

[Steven43]

It’s 2020 and we still have 5 months before the election, it’s as likely the final candidates will be a reanimated Harambe versus a shoe as ithey will be Biden and Trump.

You lost me on that one.

[SouthernDukie]

If a large portion of folks out there protesting translate to the ballot box, it won't matter who Biden nominates.

Voter turnout might be higher than you expect. A lot of people aren't very happy right now.

If the election were next week I’d be willing to bet 10 pies to 1 on who would win. It would be an easy call. But five months from now? There’s just no telling. It’s difficult to sustain anger as a voting incentive that long. I find people’s memories are pretty short in this age of outrage.

[ryetales]

If the election were next week I’d be willing to bet 10 pies to 1 on who would win. It would be an easy call. But five months from now? There’s just no telling. It’s difficult to sustain anger as a voting incentive that long. I find people’s memories are pretty short in this age of outrage.

I think this is the truth. Sorry to say, I think 2020 still has surprises for us.

[bundabergdevil]

You lost me on that one.

Just my dumb way of saying that if 2020 has shown us anything, all bets are off and don't make plans. If you're asking about the Harambe reference specifically, well...

[duke2x]

Voter turnout might be higher than you expect. A lot of people aren't very happy right now.

The only thing we know is 35-40% of the country is going to be extremely unhappy with the winner.

[JasonEvans]

Now that Biden has clinched, it is worth recalling how totally insane his win was.

Dude comes in as the front-runner, gets embarrassed in the first three states... I mean, not just loses, but horrible losses. There is no precedent at all for someone doing as poorly as he did (relative to expectations) in the first three contests and then winning the nomination. He finally does well in South Carolina and within 48 hours everyone else drops out and endorses him. To call it unprecedented doesn't even begin to do it justice.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Now that Biden has clinched, it is worth recalling how totally insane his win was.

Dude comes in as the front-runner, gets embarrassed in the first three states... I mean, not just loses, but horrible losses. There is no precedent at all for someone doing as poorly as he did (relative to expectations) in the first three contests and then winning the nomination. He finally does well in South Carolina and within 48 hours everyone else drops out and endorses him. To call it unprecedented doesn't even begin to do it justice.

And it isn't even close to the most shocking event of 2020.

[OldPhiKap]

And it isn't even close to the most shocking event of 2020.

Hell, murder hornets can’t even break into the top ten.

[Bob Green]

Interesting article on key swing state Pennsylvania in the NY Post (media bias Right - Center):

https://nypost.com/2020/06/06/biden-...-pennsylvania/

In the primary, 861,000 Republicans cast ballots for Trump compared to 734,000 Democrats for Biden. Voter turnout will be vital and Biden might be facing an enthusiasm problem in a state he really needs to win.

[OldPhiKap]

Interesting article on key swing state Pennsylvania in the NY Post (media bias Right - Center):

https://nypost.com/2020/06/06/biden-...-pennsylvania/

In the primary, 861,000 Republicans cast ballots for Trump compared to 734,000 Democrats for Biden. Voter turnout will be vital and Biden might be facing an enthusiasm problem in a state he really needs to win.

As of press time, Trump had earned 94 percent of Pennsylvania Republicans’ primary votes — with a minuscule protest vote going to either Bill Weld or Rocky De La Fuente.

Meanwhile, Biden, who boasts Scranton as his hometown and has based his national campaign headquarters in Philadelphia, has earned just under 78 percent of his party’s support. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Hawaiian Rep. Tulsi Gabbard ate away at his numbers, with Sanders winning nearly 20 percent of the vote even though he has dropped out of the race and urged his supporters to back Biden.

Encouraging sign for Trump, although it looks like the Dem vote total (appr. 941k) > Rep vote total (appr. 916k). I guess we will see if Bernie backers support Biden in November or not.

I know some Bernie backers who plan to vote independent or stay home in protest. Wouldn’t take many of those folks in key races for Trump to pull this one out despite his current headwinds.

[bundabergdevil]

Interesting article on key swing state Pennsylvania in the NY Post (media bias Right - Center):

https://nypost.com/2020/06/06/biden-...-pennsylvania/

In the primary, 861,000 Republicans cast ballots for Trump compared to 734,000 Democrats for Biden. Voter turnout will be vital and Biden might be facing an enthusiasm problem in a state he really needs to win.

We need to give PA more time for complete results. The linked article leaves out some important info. There were 1.7 million absentee ballots this primary, 17x the normal and those are still being tabulated. Notably, the Governor also extended the post by date to June 2 for all red phase counties, which were the Philly suburbs at the time. The Philly suburbs unsurprisingly are the Dem stronghold. The rural areas saw the most in person votes and those have largely been accounted for so there’s a Trump lean in currently reported votes. We’ll see though.

They’re still counting...

[JasonEvans]

Interesting article on key swing state Pennsylvania in the NY Post (media bias Right - Center):

https://nypost.com/2020/06/06/biden-...-pennsylvania/

In the primary, 861,000 Republicans cast ballots for Trump compared to 734,000 Democrats for Biden. Voter turnout will be vital and Biden might be facing an enthusiasm problem in a state he really needs to win.

Not sure where they are getting their numbers from, but the official returns from the state find Biden with 923k votes and Trump with 931k. The moment I read a mainstream media article that I can fact check and prove wrong in the first fifteen seconds of reading it, I get very skeptical of its conlcusions.

What's more, Sanders and Gabbard combined for another 250k votes while the GOP others combined for less than 70k additional votes. So, the total Democratic vote was 1.17 mil compared to 1 million who cast votes in the Republican race. Seeing as both contests were foregone conclusions and non-competitve by the time Penn voted, this looks to me like a reason to feel pretty good about the Democratic performance... unless you are someone who thinks half of those Sanders voters are going to boycott the election, something that did not happen with Hillary and something that seems less and less likely as the protests (which are dominated by young people who seem to be Sanders supporters) continue to urge people to vote vote vote.

-Jason "lie, damn lies, and statistics... numbers can be used to prove whatever point you want " Evans

[bundabergdevil]

We need to give PA more time for complete results. The linked article leaves out some important info. There were 1.7 million absentee ballots this primary, 17x the normal and those are still being tabulated. Notably, the Governor also extended the post by date to June 2 for all red phase counties, which were the Philly suburbs at the time. The Philly suburbs unsurprisingly are the Dem stronghold. The rural areas saw the most in person votes and those have largely been accounted for so there’s a Trump lean in currently reported votes. We’ll see though.

They’re still counting...

Not sure where they are getting their numbers from, but the official returns from the state find Biden with 923k votes and Trump with 931k. The moment I read a mainstream media article that I can fact check and prove wrong in the first fifteen seconds of reading it, I get very skeptical of its conlcusions.

What's more, Sanders and Gabbard combined for another 250k votes while the GOP others combined for less than 70k additional votes. So, the total Democratic vote was 1.17 mil compared to 1 million who cast votes in the Republican race. Seeing as both contests were foregone conclusions and non-competitve by the time Penn voted, this looks to me like a reason to feel pretty good about the Democratic performance... unless you are someone who thinks half of those Sanders voters are going to boycott the election, something that did not happen with Hillary and something that seems less and less likely as the protests (which are dominated by young people who seem to be Sanders supporters) continue to urge people to vote vote vote.

-Jason "lie, damn lies, and statistics... numbers can be used to prove whatever point you want " Evans

NYPost's totals were accurate when the votes were still at 98% reporting but the author linked to a gov site which has been updated as votes come in. She made the mistake of not understanding the ins and outs of PA's primary this year --- the vote shifted considerably in Biden's favor for the reasons I described.

They're at 99% reporting now and Biden could easily surpass Trump even with 250K votes going to Sanders.

The real concern is any delays are going to feed into Trump's 'the election is rigged unless I win' narrative...

[budwom]

Now that Biden has clinched, it is worth recalling how totally insane his win was.

Dude comes in as the front-runner, gets embarrassed in the first three states... I mean, not just loses, but horrible losses. There is no precedent at all for someone doing as poorly as he did (relative to expectations) in the first three contests and then winning the nomination. He finally does well in South Carolina and within 48 hours everyone else drops out and endorses him. To call it unprecedented doesn't even begin to do it justice.

Joe may have to declare Jim Clyburn as King of France if he gets elected (Macron will be sick of the job by then, if he isn't already)...question is, how much influence will Jim get in Joe's VP selection...he says a black VP isn't a requirement, but we'll see how Joe approaches this.

[OldPhiKap]

Have they finished counting the primary votes in Iowa yet?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Have they finished counting the primary votes in Iowa yet?

Another oddity from 2020 that I had already forgotten.

[bundabergdevil]

Have they finished counting the primary votes in Iowa yet?

If you were a pirate, I'd pay you a buc-an-ear for all the corn in Iowa for that joke.

[OldPhiKap]

If you were a pirate, I'd pay you a buc-an-ear for all the corn in Iowa for that joke.

A pirate walks into a bar, and has a steering wheel coming out of his pants.

The bartender asks, “Hey — do you know you have a steering wheel coming out of your pants?”

“Aye,” replies the pirate, “and it’s driving me nuts!”

Oh, and Colin Powell on CNN soon. Should be interesting.