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  1. #8741
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Fox News has Joe +9 in Wisconsin, +4 in Arizona, and +2 in Ohio. That astronaut I mentioned earlier (Mark Kelly) is +13 in Arizona over the incumbent.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Monmouth gets an A+ from 538. The Rs should be very concerned that they have the Ds +9 on the generic ballot today.

  2. #8742
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    The outcome of this election could easily be determined by Biden's VP choice simply because it has a good chance of being decided by a tiny number of voters from swing states. In 2016 when 137 million people voted Trump's win came down to only 78k votes total from MI, PA and WI. If Hillary had picked up 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points in those states respectively she would have been President. Given partisan entrenchment 2020 has a good chance of being similar. Yes some big states could flip (like FL or NC) but more likely is the election once again coming down to these same swing states. And according to polls and recent history those swing states are once again closely divided.

    So what's my point? Well some are advocating for a VP who fits with a Dem vision of becoming the progressive party of the future or appeal to the young, a VP who reflects our changing electorate. Others are advocating Biden stay away from more left leaning running mates. And I'm saying that if winning is the goal than he needs to pick a VP who will help him win the rust belt states, not the Twitter wars or the approval of the Bernie bros. A VP who will appeal to rust belt Dems (to ensure turnout) but more importantly win over a few percentage points from the swing voters in the swing states. Who are they? They aren't die-hard Dems or always-Trumpers. They mainly consist of middle of the road independents who may have voted for Obama and Trump. I know many independents voted for Obama because of his hope message and then against Hillary because they thought she represented a corrupt status quo. Many of them are, yes I know hard to believe, still undecided. Another group of undecideds are conservatives who are unhappy with Trumps bizarre behavior but also wary of the left. They worry about what they see as the dangers of creeping socialism or too much emphasis on identity politics.

    Now I don't their particular political points of view but voters like Bob Green and duke79 both say they won't vote for Biden if he picks a VP they don't believe in. Bob mentioned Kamala in particular. These guys are saying they are undecided. Maybe they won't ever vote for Trump but they may or may not vote for Biden. And it is people similar to them (except for location) who will go a long way toward breaking the tie in states like MI, PA and WI and determining which candidate gets their oh so valuable electoral votes.

    So again my point is that thinking in terms of a VP who will appeal to the majority of Dems or the left or Twitter is not a winning strategy. Sure Warren or Kamala may increase Dem turnout in CA and get young voters excited. But will they pull in the independents and undecideds in PA or MI? Because those are the voters who matter, not people like me who will vote for Biden even if he picked a monkey as VP.
    If the choice of VP is such a major decision point for many people, one would think that Biden would be doing two sets of polls:

    1. Polls of the Obama/Trump voters and other on-the-fence Republicans who have said they are likely to flip back. Give them the name of each potential Dem VP and see who they would vote for.
    2. Polls of the extreme end of the Bernie curve who might stay home if they don't get a VP they like. Give them the name of each potential Dem VP and see who they would vote for.

    Then do a rough sizing of the groups, particularly in the key swing states, and figure out who gives you the best chance of winning the electoral college votes you need. A lot can change in the next five months (i.e. Klobuchar would likely have been one of the top choices for group 1 until a week or two ago) but this should be indicative.

  3. #8743
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    James "Mad Dog" Mattis, former Secretary of Defense (and a Marine Corps general), has picked a side. Considered widely respected, will it make a difference? We keep talking about undecideds, and who might be persuaded to change their vote. Does this matter?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...on/ar-BB14ZPey

  4. #8744
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    James "Mad Dog" Mattis, former Secretary of Defense (and a Marine Corps general), has picked a side. Considered widely respected, will it make a difference? We keep talking about undecideds, and who might be persuaded to change their vote. Does this matter?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...on/ar-BB14ZPey
    Pulling out some of Mattis' condemnation below but the full thing is worth reading. Has there been a more vocal condemnation of a sitting president by not just a former official but Secretary of Defense? Certainly the Biden campaign will be able to capitalize on any and all defections. I used to think Trump's treatment of veterans and disrespect toward military figures would be one thing that might give his ardent supporters pause but that has been proven false time and time again. So, I don't think Mattis' words will matter to them.

    However, he may carry more gravity with moderates or Republicans trying to determine what's up and down right now so perhaps it will help crystallize what is so concerning about the current situation for them since it isn't coming from a protester or activist? A hard a** ex-Marine general who has gone to battle for this country over and over again is siding with the community organizers --- that is worthy of everyone's attention but perhaps it will at least get some attention.


    “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us,” Mattis writes. “We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.”

    He goes on to contrast the American ethos of unity with Nazi ideology. “Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that ‘The Nazi slogan for destroying us … was “Divide and Conquer.” Our American answer is “In Union there is Strength.”’ We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.”


    “When I joined the military, some 50 years ago,” he writes, “I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside.”

  5. #8745
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    James "Mad Dog" Mattis, former Secretary of Defense (and a Marine Corps general), has picked a side. Considered widely respected, will it make a difference? We keep talking about undecideds, and who might be persuaded to change their vote. Does this matter?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...on/ar-BB14ZPey
    No...Powerful statements but I don't think it's going to change anybody's mind. If you read through this thread, others have posted similar statements from other individuals/institutions (e.g. a church) and didn't seem to move the needle.
       

  6. #8746
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    The outcome of this election could easily be determined by Biden's VP choice simply because it has a good chance of being decided by a tiny number of voters from swing states. In 2016 when 137 million people voted Trump's win came down to only 78k votes total from MI, PA and WI. If Hillary had picked up 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points in those states respectively she would have been President. Given partisan entrenchment 2020 has a good chance of being similar. Yes some big states could flip (like FL or NC) but more likely is the election once again coming down to these same swing states. And according to polls and recent history those swing states are once again closely divided.

    So what's my point? Well some are advocating for a VP who fits with a Dem vision of becoming the progressive party of the future or appeal to the young, a VP who reflects our changing electorate. Others are advocating Biden stay away from more left leaning running mates. And I'm saying that if winning is the goal than he needs to pick a VP who will help him win the rust belt states, not the Twitter wars or the approval of the Bernie bros. A VP who will appeal to rust belt Dems (to ensure turnout) but more importantly win over a few percentage points from the swing voters in the swing states. Who are they? They aren't die-hard Dems or always-Trumpers. They mainly consist of middle of the road independents who may have voted for Obama and Trump. I know many independents voted for Obama because of his hope message and then against Hillary because they thought she represented a corrupt status quo. Many of them are, yes I know hard to believe, still undecided. Another group of undecideds are conservatives who are unhappy with Trumps bizarre behavior but also wary of the left. They worry about what they see as the dangers of creeping socialism or too much emphasis on identity politics.

    Now I don't their particular political points of view but voters like Bob Green and duke79 both say they won't vote for Biden if he picks a VP they don't believe in. Bob mentioned Kamala in particular. These guys are saying they are undecided. Maybe they won't ever vote for Trump but they may or may not vote for Biden. And it is people similar to them (except for location) who will go a long way toward breaking the tie in states like MI, PA and WI and determining which candidate gets their oh so valuable electoral votes.

    So again my point is that thinking in terms of a VP who will appeal to the majority of Dems or the left or Twitter is not a winning strategy. Sure Warren or Kamala may increase Dem turnout in CA and get young voters excited. But will they pull in the independents and undecideds in PA or MI? Because those are the voters who matter, not people like me who will vote for Biden even if he picked a monkey as VP.
    I agree with a lot of what you say here. My counterpoints to consider are just:

    1. These swing states can also flip by, say, increasing black turnout in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. It's not all just about the white undecided voter in those states.
    2. I think your logic here should lead you to reject Warren as VP (I think you're correct there), but it's a mistake to equate Warren and Kamala. Most of the Bernie bros don't even like Kamala.
    3. I think you're overestimating the degree to which posters on this thread represent the electorate, or even the important part of the electorate that you're referring to. I'm guessing that the active posters here are disproportionately middle-aged-to-older men, in part because there's some natural bias in DBR members to begin with and in part because the specific thread rules/mods sorta push things further in that direction.

  7. #8747
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    No...Powerful statements but I don't think it's going to change anybody's mind. If you read through this thread, others have posted similar statements from other individuals/institutions (e.g. a church) and didn't seem to move the needle.
    (a) Fodder for other Trump critics -- someone prominent to quote.

    (b) A real "heads-up" to the national security establishment -- military and DoD civilians and families plus employees of business in national defense and intelligence.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  8. #8748
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    (a) Fodder for other Trump critics -- someone prominent to quote.

    (b) A real "heads-up" to the national security establishment -- military and DoD civilians and families plus employees of business in national defense and intelligence.
    I agree with both your points. I just think military and DoD civilians have already made up their minds about it and the small subset of this subset that might be influenced by Mattis' statements aren't large enough to make a difference in the election... Could be wrong. But if they weren't already swayed by McCain and others.
       

  9. #8749
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I'm guessing that the active posters here are disproportionately middle-aged-to-older men
    Ouch. Very ouch.
    Carolina delenda est

  10. #8750
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    You guys are making this too complicated, it's going to be Kamala. She hits all the necessary characteristics without the risks of choosing someone relatively unknown.
    And what, in your opinion, are the necessary characteristics? And in what ways does Kamala Harris meet them?

    I’m not trying to be a smart aleck. I’m genuinely interested in your perspective.

  11. #8751
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    And what, in your opinion, are the necessary characteristics? And in what ways does Kamala Harris meet them?

    I’m not trying to be a smart aleck. I’m genuinely interested in your perspective.
    Yeah I’m not convinced. Kamala was ripped to pieces very easily in the dem primary. She went from basically a front runner to a nobody in a span of a month or so. Just ripped to pieces.
       

  12. #8752
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    Yeah I’m not convinced. Kamala was ripped to pieces very easily in the dem primary. She went from basically a front runner to a nobody in a span of a month or so. Just ripped to pieces.
    No doubt, she did not do well, but running as a VP is a supporting role without the pressure and scrutiny of being the top guy...so maybe she does better in that role...how many Tim Kaine speeches do we remember?

  13. #8753
    Harris would do well as the "attack dog" VP campaign role IMO, if that's what they're looking for. She had possibly some of the best zingers against Trump. Biden doesn't seem to be very good at that frankly. But that's certainly not the only quality you look for in a VP pick.

  14. #8754
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by James Mattis
    Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.
    If the bolded is not turned into a Biden campaign slogan, they will be missing a HUGE opportunity. This is the sound bite Biden has trouble coming up with on his own. You can make swag with just the "We Can Unite" on them, and if your advertising is good, people will automatically fill in the last two words. This could be turned into an absolutely game-changing moment for Biden if he and his people can hammer on it relentlessly enough. What a gift.

    Can he recognize and seize the moment?

  15. #8755
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    PPP, which is a Democratic pollster but gets pretty good ratings from 538, just released a North Carolina poll.

    Biden leads Trump 49 - 45
    In the governor's race, Cooper leads Forest 50-39 (Cooper's approval rating on handling the Coronavirus is 55-29)
    In the senate race, Cunningham leads Tillis 43-41. Lots of still undecided voters in that race.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #8756
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    PPP, which is a Democratic pollster but gets pretty good ratings from 538, just released a North Carolina poll.

    Biden leads Trump 49 - 45
    In the governor's race, Cooper leads Forest 50-39 (Cooper's approval rating on handling the Coronavirus is 55-29)
    In the senate race, Cunningham leads Tillis 43-41. Lots of still undecided voters in that race.
    Who is this Forest guy, Duke Forest by any chance?

  17. #8757
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    PPP, which is a Democratic pollster but gets pretty good ratings from 538, just released a North Carolina poll.

    Biden leads Trump 49 - 45
    In the governor's race, Cooper leads Forest 50-39 (Cooper's approval rating on handling the Coronavirus is 55-29)
    In the senate race, Cunningham leads Tillis 43-41. Lots of still undecided voters in that race.
    Wow. I don’t live in NC anymore but I’m surprised to see that much cross-over support for Cooper. That suggests a lot of Republicans in the state are pretty happy with how he’s handled things.
       

  18. #8758
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    And what, in your opinion, are the necessary characteristics? And in what ways does Kamala Harris meet them?

    I’m not trying to be a smart aleck. I’m genuinely interested in your perspective.
    I think what you want is someone who meets:

    1. "Do no harm" (or at least as little as possible, lots of people have pointed this out)
    2. Gets at least some subset of the base excited (not easy to meet this and #1 at the same time, but not impossible)
    3. Is relatively well-known/experienced, so there are no surprises (no need for a "hail mary" in this case)
    4. Relatively young (I'll be generous and say at least younger than in their 70s)
    5. Female (Biden can't go back on his declaration, though even if he hadn't made it I think this would be needed anyway)

    To put it in a shorter way: safe but not completely boring. I think Kamala is the only contender who meets this. Warren, Whitmer, and now Klobuchar are all too controversial and easy to attack, fair or not. Almost everyone else has some uncertainty around them in regards to point 3 above. I think Val Demings is close, but I'm not sure the current moment calls for a police chief, regardless of race.

  19. #8759
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    I agree with both your points. I just think military and DoD civilians have already made up their minds about it and the small subset of this subset that might be influenced by Mattis' statements aren't large enough to make a difference in the election... Could be wrong. But if they weren't already swayed by McCain and others.
    But Trump has not been particularly popular in the military for months now...this article was written in December, and even then his approval rating was only 42%...https://www.militarytimes.com/news/p...es-poll-shows/

  20. #8760
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    I just think military and DoD civilians have already made up their minds about it and the small subset of this subset that might be influenced by Mattis' statements aren't large enough to make a difference in the election... Could be wrong. But if they weren't already swayed by McCain and others.
    The statement as a whole is for the policy wonks and intellectuals who post on an off-topic board in a sports forum. The election geeks. But as a source for a campaign slogan that appeals both to wonks and to the electorate as a whole? I think this could be a big moment, if the opportunity is seized and exploited. That's a big "if", though. Traditionally, the Democratic Party is not good at controlling their own message, and Biden himself has not show much talent for doing so.

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