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  1. #8681
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    No, that approval rating is not equivalent to the aforementioned “passionate base”. Nope.

    You’re conflating two things that are not equivalent to each other.
    Steven, I’m not sure where you live but I’m in one of the “swing states”. I can assure you that Donald Trump's passionate base (those that will not abandoned him) in the swing states is far above the numbers you assign to him. This will be a toss up election that could go either way. Mark that down.

  2. #8682
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Steven, I’m not sure where you live but I’m in one of the “swing states”. I can assure you that Donald Trump's passionate base (those that will not abandoned him) in the swing states is far above the numbers you assign to him. This will be a toss up election that could go either way. Mark that down.
    The only thing I can say is I guess I have a different understanding of the definition of “passionate base” as compared to those few posters on DBR who have responded on this issue.
       

  3. #8683
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Steven, I’m not sure where you live but I’m in one of the “swing states”. I can assure you that Donald Trump's passionate base (those that will not abandoned him) in the swing states is far above the numbers you assign to him. This will be a toss up election that could go either way. Mark that down.
    I live in rural NC and this is exactly my experience as well. People who are for Trump are not changing their mind and voting for any democrat, I don't care if Jesus himself reappeared and ran as a D. It just ain't happening. This election, like most, is about voter turnout in a handful of states.
       

  4. #8684
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Absent a “strong“ third party candidate,* the last major party candidate to get less than 40% of the vote was George McGovern in ‘72.


    *. i.e. John Anderson in ‘80 with 6.6%, and Ross Perot’s two runs getting 18.9% in ‘92 and 8.4% in ‘96.

    https://www.britannica.com/topic/Uni...esults-1788863

    I would bet a pie that Trump exceeds 40% of the popular vote.

  5. #8685
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    As most of us seem to agree, I think most minds are made up. The question is who can and does go to the polls. For some, it will be about motivation. For some, it will be about how easy it is to go, which has a lot of different meanings - are they afraid of coronavirus? Is there a poll site nearby? How easy is it to register? Is it raining/snowing? Can they get a ride?

    I think that a huge factor in this election is who controls the voting process in each state, particularly battle ground states. It is critical how the rules are set about mail-in ballots, locations and hours for polling locations, how easy is it to register, how well is all of this information communicated, how are voting lists scrubbed, the Florida felon issue, etc.

    I would love to see a state-by-state breakdown on this. For instance, I think Wisconsin has a Democrat governor and a Republican legislature. How do the rules get made?

  6. #8686
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    As most of us seem to agree, I think most minds are made up. The question is who can and does go to the polls. For some, it will be about motivation. For some, it will be about how easy it is to go, which has a lot of different meanings - are they afraid of coronavirus? Is there a poll site nearby? How easy is it to register? Is it raining/snowing? Can they get a ride?

    I think that a huge factor in this election is who controls the voting process in each state, particularly battle ground states. It is critical how the rules are set about mail-in ballots, locations and hours for polling locations, how easy is it to register, how well is all of this information communicated, how are voting lists scrubbed, the Florida felon issue, etc.

    I would love to see a state-by-state breakdown on this. For instance, I think Wisconsin has a Democrat governor and a Republican legislature. How do the rules get made?
    John Oliver on Last Week Tonight spoke about mail in voting this week and touched on what states allow it and with what caveats. I would recommend it.
       

  7. #8687
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Trump tweeting that he’s pulling the plug on Charlotte/NC for the GOP convention. That will be a surprise to many in his own logistical chain I suspect.

  8. #8688
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Trump tweeting that he’s pulling the plug on Charlotte/NC for the GOP convention. That will be a surprise to many in his own logistical chain I suspect.
    ...Didn't Roy Cooper basically already do that?

  9. #8689
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    ...Didn't Roy Cooper basically already do that?
    Cooper said he couldn’t guarantee what Trump wanted — full stadium, no restrictions, no masks, no matter what. So Trump is taking his show somewhere else.

    What will the public reaction be if Trump gets what he wants — three or four days of a packed arena, yelling and singing without masks, screaming shoulder to shoulder? Especially with the room full of seniors that many conventions contain? I think polling suggests most folks will be repulsed by what could be seen as reckless. Especially when, a few weeks later, it is reported to be the super spreader event it would likely become.

    Let’s just say it is bold, and staying on-brand.
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 06-03-2020 at 06:24 AM. Reason: removed snark

  10. #8690
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by fisheyes View Post
    This is how many see it as well. This is a self protective belief. Those same people NEVER thought it would be possible that Trump would be elected in 2016. Just. No. Way. But it happened. The polls were wrong. Everything was wrong. If there is any complacency in the voting public it could happen again. That is why many folks think it's possible for a repeat. Reverse schadenfreude?

    Well there's a word for reverse schadenfreude, go figure:

    fremdscham
    The opposite of schadenfreude is called fremdscham, or the “vicarious embarrassment syndrome”. Essentially, people who have this syndrome tend to feel embarrassment for someone else's misfortune.

    I guess in this situation it would be fremdscham for Hilary?

    Now my brain hurts...
    Whoa. I'm going to reply out of order to the bolded.

    Isn't "vicarious embarrassment syndrome" just a fancy way of saying "puberty"?

    Everything wasn't wrong but most prognosticators were. There were some smart, reputable shops suggesting Trump could win the electoral but lose the popular was the second most likely outcome, IIRC. But, yeah, the election results generally defied expectation.

    My brain hurts, too. Had never heard of fremdscham though I'm not sure how it applies to folks thinking Trump still has a chance. I do think there is more awareness of the electoral dynamics that have enabled Republicans to capture the presidency while losing the popular election 2 out of the last 3 times they've been victorious.

    Good word though. Imma use it.

  11. #8691
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Just on the above Condi talk, I'm pretty interested in seeing how Bush engages (or not at all) in this campaign cycle. He did release that call for unity a month or so back. Trump did not take the message well.

    Bush obviously wasn't a popular POTUS by the time he left office but his approval has improved post-office, as it often does. The public tends to soften their hard edges on retired presidents, particularly when they engage in goodwill campaigns and humanitarian endeavors as Carter, GHWB, Clinton, GWB, and Obama have all done.


    The current Republican national party is almost unidentifiable from the Bush years save for certain social hot button issues and, I guess, taxes. Anything else --- foreign affairs, trade, military intervention, arguably immigration, the entire idea of American moral leadership in the world, etc --- has essentially been subject to the Trump sledgehammer.

    That is all to ask, are there enough voters who long for pre-Trump Republicanism that if Biden were to select someone like Condi, it would generate MORE votes than it would lose from the liberal wing of the party? My guess is...No.
    Poor form to quote myself but since I said I'm interested in how GWB engages, wanted to post his statement on recent events.

    Between his video message about coronavirus and this, I would not be surprised to see him continue to find his post-presidency voice. Given the Bush' disdain for Trump (and that disdain is reciprocated), I would not be surprised to see GWB make more pointed comments in the future.

  12. #8692
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Apparently the Republican National Convention will not be held in Charlotte, per the buzzing features on my phone.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  13. #8693
    Quote Originally Posted by fisheyes View Post
    This is how many see it as well. This is a self protective belief. Those same people NEVER thought it would be possible that Trump would be elected in 2016. Just. No. Way. But it happened. The polls were wrong. Everything was wrong. If there is any complacency in the voting public it could happen again. That is why many folks think it's possible for a repeat. Reverse schadenfreude?

    Well there's a word for reverse schadenfreude, go figure:

    fremdscham
    The opposite of schadenfreude is called fremdscham, or the “vicarious embarrassment syndrome”. Essentially, people who have this syndrome tend to feel embarrassment for someone else's misfortune.

    I guess in this situation it would be fremdscham for Hilary?

    Now my brain hurts...
    I get what you’re saying, I do. But I’m confused as to why people are inexplicably overlooking the most recent evidence we have of the voting public’s rebuke of Donald Trump and his agenda — the 2018 midterm elections. The Democrats gained 41 seats and took over control of the House of Representatives. Republicans had held a House majority since January 2011.

    The GOP cannot prosper in 2020 without winning more support among women and young people — two groups that find Trump less than desirable. In House races the Democrats carried the female vote by nearly twenty points—fifty-nine per cent to forty per cent. In the eighteen-to-twenty-nine age group, Democratic candidates led their Republican opponents by thirty-five points; in the thirty-to-forty-four demographic, Democrats won by nineteen points. More than ever, the GOP is a party of middle-aged and elderly white males (of which I am one, if 50 is elderly).

    Sorry guys, but that’s just not going to be good enough to win in 2020 and beyond. The most recent evidence we have — including the 2018 midterms and all of the polls — shows Trump is likely be a one-term President.
       

  14. #8694
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Whoa. I'm going to reply out of order to the bolded.

    Isn't "vicarious embarrassment syndrome" just a fancy way of saying "puberty"?

    Everything wasn't wrong but most prognosticators were. There were some smart, reputable shops suggesting Trump could win the electoral but lose the popular was the second most likely outcome, IIRC. But, yeah, the election results generally defied expectation.

    My brain hurts, too. Had never heard of fremdscham though I'm not sure how it applies to folks thinking Trump still has a chance. I do think there is more awareness of the electoral dynamics that have enabled Republicans to capture the presidency while losing the popular election 2 out of the last 3 times they've been victorious.

    Good word though. Imma use it.
    Meltdown in the last two weeks for Hillary and the Dems in 2016. I give blame (or credit) to Comey for raising the email question yet again once it had faded from view -- not only that, but Anthony's Weiner's computer -- yuck!! Hillary's pre-slump support was obviously not very strong, although she did win the popular vote by two percent, not that far off the poll averages.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  15. #8695
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    OMG, this may get me in trouble with the gendarmes on the Board, but I have to report this:

    Controversial Iowa Republican Congressman Steve King is behind in his primary race to fellow Republican Randy Feenstra. If King were to lose, would it be a case of
    de-Feenstration?
    Last edited by sagegrouse; 06-02-2020 at 11:15 PM. Reason: Name
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  16. #8696
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Brooklet, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    OMG, this may get me in trouble with the gendarmes on the Board, but I have to report this:

    Controversial Iowa Republican Congressman Steve King is behind in his primary race to fellow Republican Randy Feenstra. If King were to lose, would it be a case of
    de-Feenstration?
    Please ban yourself for 3 days minimum and sin no more.

  17. #8697
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by jacone21 View Post
    Please ban yourself for 3 days minimum and sin no more.
    There really should be a DBR oral history assembled about defenestration.
       

  18. #8698
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    It could be that some people close to former President George W Bush will start pushing him to do the unthinkable and endorse Biden. A new Super PAC has been formed to represent former Bush Administration officials who prefer Biden to Trump. No word yet how many Bush Admin officials have signed on.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  19. #8699
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Are cracks starting to show? Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense resigns from advisory board with some VERY harsh words. Not your typical resignation letter. Secretary of Defense Esper responds that "I didn't know where I was going" for photo op in front of church.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/us-m...WxtsG5tpHSUJZo

    Church officials are also being very noisy.

  20. #8700
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    OMG, this may get me in trouble with the gendarmes on the Board, but I have to report this:

    Controversial Iowa Republican Congressman Steve King is behind in his primary race to fellow Republican Randy Feenstra. If King were to lose, would it be a case of
    de-Feenstration?
    It appears King has lost.
       

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