2020 Presidential Election

[duke79]

And Biden also has to pick an experienced campaigner who will not make Sarah Palin-type blunders. This is much more important in 2020 because of Biden's age.

Yea, no doubt this is true. He NEEDS to pick someone who has the political stature, brains, education, maturity and national political experience to be able to handle the slings and arrows of a presidential campaign (and I'm sure that this is going to be a VERY UGLY campaign, even by the already low standards of recent elections). And, yes, he cannot make a "Sarah Palin" mistake.

[budwom]

I almost feel foolish coming here and telling folks to read something at 538 because my bet is that most of you already read 538 pretty thoroughly. Still, I feel like this conversation about the swing states is pretty compelling and worth some extra attention: Are Arizona, Georgia, and Texas really in play?







-Jason "if I had to rank swing states in order of likely to flip from Trump to Biden I would rank them in this order: Michigan, Penn, Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Texas" Evans

In this time of great uncertainty, I feel buoyed by Jason's quadrennial prediction that Georgia may go blue this election. (The only way Georgia is going blue is if it holds its breath for a really long time.)

[jv001]

I think your analysis (bolded above) is what Joe and his advisors have to consider when choosing his VP running mate. I've always thought that, for the most part, people don't vote for the VP candidate (see, e.g., 1988 - Lloyd Bentson vs. Dan Quayle). But I think this year may be different. Given his advanced age and (what many people perceive to be) his declining mental acumen, I think people ARE going to focus more on who Joe chooses to be his VP candidate, with the thought that that person stands a fairly good chance of becoming president. I think many voters will be asking themselves - can I see this person being the President of the country? And I do think that some of the names being bandied about for VP would scare off some moderate and right-of-center voters who would otherwise be leaning towards Joe. This is where Joe needs to be careful. If I were advising him, I would emphasize that fact - that he needs to choose someone who has the stature and experience to be the President (in moderate voters' minds), even if that person might not be the first choice of the progressives and far lefties in the Democratic party. Yea, it's possible some of those on the far left might not vote at all but I live in one of the most liberal regions of the country and I can promise you that EVERYONE I know will be voting for Joe no matter who he chooses to be his VP (I mean, he could choose the second incarnation of Atilla the Hun and they would still vote for Joe).

I can't remember ever wishing/hoping/praying that a Presidential candidate makes his/her choice for a running mate that can step in and run the greatest country on earth. But this year I'm doing just that and not to just help Biden win the office but to be ready to step up if Joe's not able to finish his term.

[OldPhiKap]

Per Politico, Biden recently said that he would name his VP choice by August 1.

[PackMan97]

I can't remember ever wishing/hoping/praying that a Presidential candidate makes his/her choice for a running mate that can step in and run the greatest country on earth. But this year I'm doing just that and not to just help Biden win the office but to be ready to step up if Joe's not able to finish his term.

I feel the same could be said of the candidate on the other side of the aisle as well. I was hoping Obama would usher in the next generation of candidates, but it seems that the Boomers are having trouble letting go...and I guess technically Obama was a Boomer as well, but he was among the last of the boomers, not among the first. Heck, for that matter I guess Biden is actually too old to be a Boomer.

[jv001]

I feel the same could be said of the candidate on the other side of the aisle as well. I was hoping Obama would usher in the next generation of candidates, but it seems that the Boomers are having trouble letting go...and I guess technically Obama was a Boomer as well, but he was among the last of the boomers, not among the first. Heck, for that matter I guess Biden is actually too old to be a Boomer.

But I have confidence in Pence. Probably as much or more than his Boss.

[OldPhiKap]

But I have confidence in Pence. Probably as much or more than his Boss.

I can't speak for the gubernatorial level, but I think the Republicans have done a much better job of grooming the next generation of national candidates than the Democrats have. The Democratic Presidential candidate is 77 (and his two strongest last-standing rivals were Bernie @ 78 and Warren @ 70); Speaker Pelosi is 80; Majority Leader Hoyer is 80; Majority Whip Clyburn is 79. Compare that to the last group of Republican candidates (such as Rubio, J. Bush, Cruz, Kasich) who were generally in their 40's to 60's; Minority Leader McCarthy is 55; Minority Whip Scalise is 54. Only the President (73) and Majority Leader McConnell (78) are septuagenarians.

[budwom]

Per Politico, Biden recently said that he would name his VP choice by August 1.

did they say which August 1?

[JasonEvans]

Politico with a fascinating article about a leading Democratic pollster (was Bill Clinton's chief pollster in the 90s) who says the data about VP picks is abundantly clear: Elizabeth Warren is far and away the best choice for Biden for VP

Biden’s biggest problem, Greenberg said, is that the Democratic Party has not unified behind him. In fact, Biden is now behind where Clinton was with Bernie Sanders voters in 2016, with more than 20 percent of the democratic socialist’s backers saying they would not vote for him, even as 87 percent of them pledge to vote for a Democrat for Congress. At a similar point in the 2016 cycle, roughly 15 percent of Sanders voters said they wouldn’t vote for Hillary Cllinton.

“Above all else, [the Democratic Party] needs consolidation. That’s where the overwhelming percentage of votes are,” Greenberg argued.

In his presentation, which was titled "The obvious solution," Greenberg wrote, “The biggest threat to Democrats in 2020 is the lack of support and disengagement of millennials and the fragmentation of non-Biden primary voters.”

[CameronBornAndBred]

Politico with a fascinating article about a leading Democratic pollster (was Bill Clinton's chief pollster in the 90s) who says the data about VP picks is abundantly clear: Elizabeth Warren is far and away the best choice for Biden for VP

As OPK pointed out, Warren is now in her 70s. That choice would be doomed to be named the Nursing Home Ticket.
Two old white people are gonna be a hard sell on many in the Dem party. They'll vote for them anyway, but they won't be happy about it; there is nothing inspiring about them in terms of either race nor youth.

[LasVegas]

As OPK pointed out, Warren is now in her 70s. That choice would be doomed to be named the Nursing Home Ticket.
Two old white people are gonna be a hard sell on many in the Dem party. They'll vote for them anyway, but they won't be happy about it; there is nothing inspiring about them in terms of either race nor youth.

A women who is 70 is much different than a man who is 70.

And age isn’t as big of a factor as I think you make it in regards to young voters. Prime example being the support Bernie has/had.

[bundabergdevil]

A women who is 70 is much different than a man who is 70.

And age isn’t as big of a factor as I think you make it in regards to young voters. Prime example being the support Bernie has/had.

Some 70 year olds have boundless energy. Warren and Trump are two of those people. Their (very different) energy exhausts me as a middle-aged reasonably active person.

And some 70 year olds need to hit the Luby's buffet at 4:30 pm and be home by 5:30 pm.

[sagegrouse]

A women who is 70 is much different than a man who is 70.

And age isn’t as big of a factor as I think you make it in regards to young voters. Prime example being the support Bernie has/had.

Vive la difference??

[LasVegas]

Some 70 year olds have boundless energy. Warren and Trump are two of those people. Their (very different) energy exhausts me as a middle-aged reasonably active person.

And some 70 year olds need to hit the Luby's buffet at 4:30 pm and be home by 5:30 pm.

Yes, completely agree. I was just making a generalization. Age is only a number to a certain extent and I really don’t think it matters THAT much when the platforms of the parties are very different. Even within the dem party, mayor Pete couldn’t snag the youth vote from Bernie or Warren. Policy matters more than anything.

It will be interesting to see if Biden adopts any of the views from the very liberal wing. I would think that largely depends on polling.

[sagegrouse]

Politico with a fascinating article about a leading Democratic pollster (was Bill Clinton's chief pollster in the 90s) who says the data about VP picks is abundantly clear: Elizabeth Warren is far and away the best choice for Biden for VP

Here's all you need to know about Stan Greenberg: he wanted Hillary to pick Elizabeth Warren in 2016 -- a female running mate for the first-ever woman presidential candidate:

Stan Greenberg, one of the Democratic Party's longtime leading pollsters, urged Hillary Clinton in 2016 to pick Elizabeth Warren as her vice president. He thinks Clinton would be president had she listened.

Now Greenberg — who popularized the term “Reagan Democrats” and came to prominence as Bill Clinton’s lead pollster — is urging Joe Biden’s team to heed the same advice.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Here's all you need to know about Stan Greenberg: he wanted Hillary to pick Elizabeth Warren in 2016 -- a female running mate for the first-ever woman presidential candidate:

So... He's consistent?

[CameronBornAndBred]

A women who is 70 is much different than a man who is 70.

And age isn’t as big of a factor as I think you make it in regards to young voters. Prime example being the support Bernie has/had.

I'm not talking about "young voters" (who are historically the last people you want to count on to show up and cast a ballot), I'm talking about the whole of the Democratic Party that will be voting in the general, and the independents that Trump and Biden will be fighting for.

I think that Democrats want to see diversity on the ticket. Not just in gender, which as we know will be addressed, but also in age and/or race. Someone in their 50s is far more inspiring to EVERYONE than two people in their 70s.

[budwom]

I'm not talking about "young voters" (who are historically the last people you want to count on to show up and cast a ballot), I'm talking about the whole of the Democrat Party that will be voting in the general, and the independents that Trump and Biden will be fighting for.

I think that Democrats want to see diversity on the ticket. Not just in gender, which as we know will be addressed, but also in age and/or race. Someone in their 50s is far more inspiring to EVERYONE than two people in their 70s.

I dunno, I keep alternating between your view and the simple view that people have Trump fatigue and will vote for Joe even if he has a ham sandwich (female) as a running mate. What they may want ideally, and what they're wiling to vote for, are probably two very different things.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm not talking about "young voters" (who are historically the last people you want to count on to show up and cast a ballot), I'm talking about the whole of the Democrat Party that will be voting in the general, and the independents that Trump and Biden will be fighting for.

I think that Democrats want to see diversity on the ticket. Not just in gender, which as we know will be addressed, but also in age and/or race. Someone in their 50s is far more inspiring to EVERYONE than two people in their 70s.

I fall in this camp too. If Joe is setting himself up to be the transitional torch-passer (something he has said before) then the obvious recipient of the torch is the VP.

Plus, Warren does not help with suburbanites, the rust belt, and African-Americans -- where he needs to be strong.

Between his gaffe about AA voters, and the recent incidents in Brunswick (GA) and Minneapolis, I am more convinced that he will choose someone like Harris (a former prosecutor) or Val Demings (Rep.-Fl., a 63-year old retired police officer) to address the racial issues which are bubbling back to the fore.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I dunno, I keep alternating between your view and the simple view that people have Trump fatigue and will vote for Joe even if he has a ham sandwich (female) as a running mate. What they may want ideally, and what they're wiling to vote for, are probably two very different things.

I think if you did a Venn diagram, the whole of the "ideal candidate" and the "ham sandwich" circles would both fit almost fully into the "willing to vote for" circle. That doesn't mean that Warren is the best choice to come out of the deli.