Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Perhaps not in NC, although his stronger support in the African-American community will help more than it did for Clinton in 2016. But in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (the three states that decided 2016 by a combined 100,000 votes)? Yeah, he definitely has a chance.
I think Biden has a pretty good chance in NC. In fact I've stated so much in this thread; I'll be more surprised if NC doesn't go blue than red for 2020. (And as stated before, I think redistricting will have a big hand in that. There's a reason that Mark Meadows quit his job, and it wasn't to go be Chief of Staff.)
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
Agree that Biden isn't as charismatic as Obama and I'm on record as saying Biden is noticeably on the decline though I think Trump's incoherence is as apparent. Frankly, I do not think either Biden or Trump makes any sense when they communicate.
Obama won NC on the thinnest of margins in 2008 and HRC actually added to Obama's 2008 raw turnout by about 40K. GOP presidential margins, aside from the Obama victory when GOP enthusiasm was at a nader from GWB + Great Recession, have been consistently above the Dem ceiling in the state so it seems like the GOP has much more room for error. I think Trump beat HRC by around 100K votes and that's a lot of ground to make up in NC.
What have the demographic changes look like in NC the past 4 years? Has the Triangle really blown up populations wise? Have the hinterlands lost a lot? Otherwise, Biden definitely faces an uphill battle. A terrible economy (potentially indisputable if it lasts to November) and mismanagement of a national crisis (if the Dems can win the narrative battle), could provide some major tailwinds for Biden.
Using hunting and fishing sites to gauge statewide political sentiment is like taking a poll on Franklin Street about whether Coach K is a good coach - you might want to step out of your bubble - I'm not saying that Biden will definitely win NC, but your polling group is not very representative.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Wisconsin polls about to close, but apparently results will not be released until April 13 because of a court order. Weird.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/u...egion=Sentence
Reports that Sanders bowing out hitting the news.
Not sure what I expected but odd timing.
Beat me to it. Here is a link: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/08/81429...ntial-campaign
He will publicly bow out at 11:45am ET today.
-Jason "I expect a speech that talks about how he made all these issues so important and how he will keep on fighting for them... followed by a full-throated endorsement of Biden that even the biggest Sanders critics will find acceptable" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
The real question is: what will his followers do. In the last election the release of the DNC emails (foreign interference) made a huge difference to them as many stayed home for voted for DT out of spite. Will they take a different path this time and get behind Biden (who they don't like)?
Now he can sabotage Biden from the sidelines instead of his own eight yard line. It works out just fine for him.
Not only that, but how many of these hunting/fishing site people are white men? There's a group that's highly unrepresentative of everyone else, in general and in voting patterns. If you have more white men in your sample than in the electorate, you have a badly flawed sample.
It seems like a century again, but my memory tells me that on Super Tuesday there were 4 legit (no offense, Tulsi) candidates campaigning: Warren, Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg... two progressives and two moderates. I don't mean to be fact checking the President but if you take the Biden+Bloomberg numbers and compare them to the Sanders+Warren numbers it is abundantly clear that the Democratic party chose a "lane" and Bernie was not in it.
What's more, there is no evidence that Warren's supporters were ready to embrace Sanders in big ways, as shown by Sanders continued poor showings after Warren did pull out. I know Trump likes to tout this line, and I get that he wants to push Sanders' supporters not to back Biden in the General Election, but these tweets are really factually challenged.
-Jason "um..." Evans
Last edited by -jk; 04-08-2020 at 02:11 PM. Reason: clarity
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Sanders says he will remain on the ballot in the states that still have primaries and continue to gather delegates to influence the convention. So he will at least keep up the fight in some form or fashion through the convention in mid-August, less than three months from the general election.
Put another way — between now and the general election he will still be in longer than he will be out.