Page 394 of 442 FirstFirst ... 294344384392393394395396404 ... LastLast
Results 7,861 to 7,880 of 8840
  1. #7861
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Bill Clinton carried Georgia in 92, against a very popular Republican incumbent whose economy went to hell six months before the election.

    And Georgia has a lot more Northern transplants than it did back then.
    I had to look it up. Clinton carried four states of the Confederacy in each of his runs -- in 1992 it was GA, AR (natch), TN and LA. In 1996, substitute FL for GA and the rest are the same.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  2. #7862
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Just to supplement the above and add to the NC conversation with the reminder - Obama carried NC in 2008.

  3. #7863
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Just to supplement the above and add to the NC conversation with the reminder - Obama carried NC in 2008.
    Obama was charismatic. Joe is not. Biden, in my opinion, has little chance of beating Trump.

  4. #7864
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Obama was charismatic. Joe is not. Biden, in my opinion, has little chance of beating Trump.
    Perhaps not in NC, although his stronger support in the African-American community will help more than it did for Clinton in 2016. But in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (the three states that decided 2016 by a combined 100,000 votes)? Yeah, he definitely has a chance.

  5. #7865
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Obama was charismatic. Joe is not. Biden, in my opinion, has little chance of beating Trump.
    I think Biden has a pretty good chance in NC. In fact I've stated so much in this thread; I'll be more surprised if NC doesn't go blue than red for 2020. (And as stated before, I think redistricting will have a big hand in that. There's a reason that Mark Meadows quit his job, and it wasn't to go be Chief of Staff.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  6. #7866
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Perhaps not in NC, although his stronger support in the African-American community will help more than it did for Clinton in 2016. But in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (the three states that decided 2016 by a combined 100,000 votes)? Yeah, he definitely has a chance.
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I think Biden has a pretty good chance in NC. In fact I've stated so much in this thread; I'll be more surprised if NC doesn't go blue than red for 2020. (And as stated before, I think redistricting will have a big hand in that. There's a reason that Mark Meadows quit his job, and it wasn't to go be Chief of Staff.)
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Obama was charismatic. Joe is not. Biden, in my opinion, has little chance of beating Trump.
    Agree that Biden isn't as charismatic as Obama and I'm on record as saying Biden is noticeably on the decline though I think Trump's incoherence is as apparent. Frankly, I do not think either Biden or Trump makes any sense when they communicate.

    Obama won NC on the thinnest of margins in 2008 and HRC actually added to Obama's 2008 raw turnout by about 40K. GOP presidential margins, aside from the Obama victory when GOP enthusiasm was at a nader from GWB + Great Recession, have been consistently above the Dem ceiling in the state so it seems like the GOP has much more room for error. I think Trump beat HRC by around 100K votes and that's a lot of ground to make up in NC.

    What have the demographic changes look like in NC the past 4 years? Has the Triangle really blown up populations wise? Have the hinterlands lost a lot? Otherwise, Biden definitely faces an uphill battle. A terrible economy (potentially indisputable if it lasts to November) and mismanagement of a national crisis (if the Dems can win the narrative battle), could provide some major tailwinds for Biden.

  7. #7867
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Get out and talk to people. I never pay the polls much attention. HRC was stunned she lost. I predicted here Trump would win, and he did. My formula was simple, and almost childish in its simplicity. I was still running for Fedex, so I just started paying attention to bumper stickers and yard signs, saw about a ten to one Trump advantage. Silly, I know, but it worked..lol And Joe just doesn't look good at this point, stumbling over words and looking confused. I would be shocked if Biden won.
    I am on several hunting and fishing sites, and trust me, there it's not even close.. I just hope whoever wins we can be civil to each other when it's over. This Parkinson's afflicting me has made me see things in a different light. Americans should not hate each other.Not agreeing on politics is no reason to hate people.
    Using hunting and fishing sites to gauge statewide political sentiment is like taking a poll on Franklin Street about whether Coach K is a good coach - you might want to step out of your bubble - I'm not saying that Biden will definitely win NC, but your polling group is not very representative.

  8. #7868
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Using hunting and fishing sites to gauge statewide political sentiment is like taking a poll on Franklin Street about whether Coach K is a good coach - you might want to step out of your bubble - I'm not saying that Biden will definitely win NC, but your polling group is not very representative.
    Well, we shall see, my friend.

  9. #7869
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Obama was charismatic. Joe is not. Biden, in my opinion, has little chance of beating Trump.
    Trump's win in 2016 was a bit fluky. Now he has to do it all over again -- pretty much a referendum on Trump, I'd say. Biden's good enough as a standard-bearer, I would think.

    Kindly,
    Sage Grouse
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  10. #7870
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    [/I][/B]

    Michigan is an intriguing electoral state. Along with PA and FL, it's the one that I'm most interested in observing. Reasons below:

    Florida - for the dynamic I stated up-thread. It had been trending red over the years but I'm curious to see if the ghost of Governor Scott's unemployment choices + DeSantis' hitching his coronavirus wagon to Trump's star come back to haunt the GOP.

    PA - Aside from the southern states, it has one of the worst finances in the country; the states rainy day funds have already been wiped out and it's laid off 12K state employees. Unemployment claims have been north of 1M and I'd put the state's effective unemployment at 15+% already. The shale/nat gas boom up in the NE is most likely going to crater, too, because of all this. Current Governor Wolf (D) is getting high marks and Biden is popular here but it's a partisan, partisan state that hasn't been attracting many young people Interesting dynamic.

    MI - HRC lost on the back of AfAm turnout in Detroit. It's going to get hammered in all of this and Trump has been outright condescending to a Governor desperately trying to get supplies for her state. 10K votes turned the state red last time. What happens this go around?
    Great post. Add you your Florida list the potential of 1M felons being eligible to vote. Note sure how it breaks but it is certainly a new dynamic

  11. #7871
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Wisconsin polls about to close, but apparently results will not be released until April 13 because of a court order. Weird.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/u...egion=Sentence
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  12. #7872
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Wisconsin polls about to close, but apparently results will not be released until April 13 because of a court order. Weird.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/u...egion=Sentence
    Weird is too nice of a word for what happened in Wisconsin. There should have been a better solution to all this. There wasn't and the result put people at risk.

  13. #7873
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Reports that Sanders bowing out hitting the news.

    Not sure what I expected but odd timing.

  14. #7874
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Reports that Sanders bowing out hitting the news.

    Not sure what I expected but odd timing.
    Beat me to it. Here is a link: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/08/81429...ntial-campaign

    He will publicly bow out at 11:45am ET today.

    -Jason "I expect a speech that talks about how he made all these issues so important and how he will keep on fighting for them... followed by a full-throated endorsement of Biden that even the biggest Sanders critics will find acceptable" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  15. #7875
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Beat me to it. Here is a link: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/08/81429...ntial-campaign

    He will publicly bow out at 11:45am ET today.

    -Jason "I expect a speech that talks about how he made all these issues so important and how he will keep on fighting for them... followed by a full-throated endorsement of Biden that even the biggest Sanders critics will find acceptable" Evans
    The real question is: what will his followers do. In the last election the release of the DNC emails (foreign interference) made a huge difference to them as many stayed home for voted for DT out of spite. Will they take a different path this time and get behind Biden (who they don't like)?

  16. #7876
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Beat me to it. Here is a link: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/08/81429...ntial-campaign

    He will publicly bow out at 11:45am ET today.

    -Jason "I expect a speech that talks about how he made all these issues so important and how he will keep on fighting for them... followed by a full-throated endorsement of Biden that even the biggest Sanders critics will find acceptable" Evans
    Sanders hasn't started talking yet, but has already proven you wrong. His team is leaking ahead of time that there will be no endorsement in this speech. This is entirely in character, of course.

  17. #7877
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Now he can sabotage Biden from the sidelines instead of his own eight yard line. It works out just fine for him.

  18. #7878
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Using hunting and fishing sites to gauge statewide political sentiment is like taking a poll on Franklin Street about whether Coach K is a good coach - you might want to step out of your bubble - I'm not saying that Biden will definitely win NC, but your polling group is not very representative.
    Not only that, but how many of these hunting/fishing site people are white men? There's a group that's highly unrepresentative of everyone else, in general and in voting patterns. If you have more white men in your sample than in the electorate, you have a badly flawed sample.

  19. #7879
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    It seems like a century again, but my memory tells me that on Super Tuesday there were 4 legit (no offense, Tulsi) candidates campaigning: Warren, Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg... two progressives and two moderates. I don't mean to be fact checking the President but if you take the Biden+Bloomberg numbers and compare them to the Sanders+Warren numbers it is abundantly clear that the Democratic party chose a "lane" and Bernie was not in it.

    What's more, there is no evidence that Warren's supporters were ready to embrace Sanders in big ways, as shown by Sanders continued poor showings after Warren did pull out. I know Trump likes to tout this line, and I get that he wants to push Sanders' supporters not to back Biden in the General Election, but these tweets are really factually challenged.

    -Jason "um..." Evans
    Last edited by -jk; 04-08-2020 at 01:11 PM. Reason: clarity
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #7880
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Sanders says he will remain on the ballot in the states that still have primaries and continue to gather delegates to influence the convention. So he will at least keep up the fight in some form or fashion through the convention in mid-August, less than three months from the general election.

    Put another way — between now and the general election he will still be in longer than he will be out.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

Similar Threads

  1. 2016 Presidential Race
    By CameronBornAndBred in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 16487
    Last Post: 11-15-2016, 10:52 PM
  2. Presidential Inauguration
    By such in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 11-26-2008, 10:19 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •