2020 Presidential Election

[PackMan97]

Coronavirus Election Impact, Non-Trump Edition.

Bernie is possibly underrated to become the D nominee and ultimately President. The people around the world who have died from Covid-19 appear to be largely the elderly, and so old folks will be reluctant to leave the house to get into crowded primary lines if/when widespread outbreaks occur. Who benefits? Candidates with a youthful base who are additionally very enthusiastic about their candidate such that they are willing to brave the risks of Covid-19 to get into line to vote.

On the more morbid side of life... these candidates are traveling the country, shaking hands, sharing germs. Four of them are over seventy with Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg pushing 80.

We could end up with President Pete simply based on being the last Candidate standing.

Definitely a worst case scenario there.

[budwom]

Coronavirus is clearly a big deal, but I've seen enough of these election cycles to feel that there will be LOTS of surprises and unusual events between now and November so I think predicting what's apt to be crucial is pretty much fruitless. It'll be a show, no matter what.

As for the Sanders being favored in SC, I never trusted that anyway, Biden has made that his firewall for some time now, he has Clyburn on his side, so I think it's dubious to say Joe has made some major comeback...but he does need SC in the worst kind of way, and is likely to get it...

[Acymetric]

Coronavirus Election Impact, Non-Trump Edition.

Bernie is possibly underrated to become the D nominee and ultimately President. The people around the world who have died from Covid-19 appear to be largely the elderly, and so old folks will be reluctant to leave the house to get into crowded primary lines if/when widespread outbreaks occur. Who benefits? Candidates with a youthful base who are additionally very enthusiastic about their candidate such that they are willing to brave the risks of Covid-19 to get into line to vote.

Do you reallythink Corona virus fears are going to depress elderly turnout that much? I expect the impact to be so small as to be unobservable statistically.

[Troublemaker]

Do you reallythink Corona virus fears are going to depress elderly turnout that much? I expect the impact to be so small as to be unobservable statistically.

Not as of today, but maybe the virus spreads within the country and deaths start to occur (heaven forbid). Also, within a D primary, there will be lots of skepticism among voters of how Trump is handling things. There may be fears that he's screwing things up so badly that it's not safe to go outside. But if the virus remains relatively contained, and the D voters believe that to be the case, I too would not expect a dip in turnout.

[sagegrouse]

Do you reallythink Corona virus fears are going to depress elderly turnout that much? I expect the impact to be so small as to be unobservable statistically.

Corona virus and turnout? Give me a break! Here in the leading state (marijuana, etc.), we vote by mail -- there are no polling places -- unless you count standing in a long line at the courthouse on election day. The "security of the ballot" is protected by state and federal law, as well as postal laws and enforcement.

Moreover, when the ballot is fulled with complicated ballot initiatives, as is often the case in states of the American West, you can read up on the issues as you vote.

Moreover, you don't have to recruit and train election judges for a zillion precincts -- good people, but as technically proficient as the precinct chairs at the Iowa caucus. (A phone app for a 70-something? What could possibly go wrong?)

[Acymetric]

Not as of today, but maybe the virus spreads within the country and deaths start to occur (heaven forbid). Also, within a D primary, there will be lots of skepticism among voters of how Trump is handling things. There may be fears that he's screwing things up so badly that it's not safe to go outside. But if the virus remains relatively contained, and the D voters believe that to be the case, I too would not expect a dip in turnout.

Well, yes if the Coronavirus turns into a widespread deadly pandemic in the US that would impact voter turnout. Expecting that to happen in the next few days?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, yes if the Coronavirus turns into a widespread deadly pandemic in the US that would impact voter turnout. Expecting that to happen in the next few days?

I inferred he was speaking to the national election.

[Acymetric]

I inferred he was speaking to the national election.

He was talking specifically about Bernie's chances in the primary being impacted (boosted) by a decrease in elderly turnout due to coronavirus in the comment I originally replied to.

(For reference)

Coronavirus Election Impact, Non-Trump Edition.

Bernie is possibly underrated to become the D nominee and ultimately President. The people around the world who have died from Covid-19 appear to be largely the elderly, and so old folks will be reluctant to leave the house to get into crowded primary lines if/when widespread outbreaks occur. Who benefits? Candidates with a youthful base who are additionally very enthusiastic about their candidate such that they are willing to brave the risks of Covid-19 to get into line to vote.

[JasonEvans]

South Carolina polls show Biden really surging. Looking like he is headed to a win by something like 15 percentage points. 538's current projection is:

Biden 39
Sanders 21
Steyer 14
Buttigieg 9
Warren 8
Klobuchar 5

If we see numbers like that...

• Klobuchar will drop out, perhaps even before Super Tuesday
• Buttigieg and Warren probably stick around for Super Tuesday, but they are almost certainly done right after that (they both may have enough delegates to play a role at a contested convention)
• I have no idea what Steyer is doing, because money is not a problem for him, but why bother to stay in at that point

But, most importantly, it could really impact Bloomberg. It has been widely reported that Bloomberg only got into the race because he saw Biden slumping and wanted there to be a viable alternative to Bernie. If Biden is surging, might Bloomberg suddenly reverse course and back him?

-Jason "this feel like the most unpredictable nominating contest since... 2016" Evans

[Troublemaker]

He was talking specifically about Bernie's chances in the primary being impacted (boosted) by a decrease in elderly turnout due to coronavirus in the comment I originally replied to.

(For reference)

MtnDevil is right. I wasn't referring to SC (and made no reference to SC) but primaries in general. The key is "if/when widespread outbreaks occur".

[OldPhiKap]

{excellent analysis}

The only thing I will add to this is that Warren is currently polling behind Sanders in Massachusetts apparently (Nate has Sanders at 24.3% and Warren at 17.8%) and it is a Super Tuesday state. Warren may pull the plug before Super Tuesday if it looks like she will likely lose her home state. She is close to the margin of error as to even reaching viability there; that would be a disaster for her given that she has (I think) drawn a primary challenger.

[Troublemaker]

The only thing I will add to this is that Warren is currently polling behind Sanders in Massachusetts apparently (Nate has Sanders at 24.3% and Warren at 17.8%) and it is a Super Tuesday state. Warren may pull the plug before Super Tuesday if it looks like she will likely lose her home state. She is close to the margin of error as to even reaching viability there; that would be a disaster for her given that she has (I think) drawn a primary challenger.

I think her strategy is to try to become the "compromise candidate" in a contested convention, which is why she has generally been playing nice with Bernie while focusing attacks on Bloomberg. (She can't become the enemy of Bernie Bros).

Anyway, because getting out before Super Tuesday lowers the odds of a contested convention, she will stay in until it's done.

[CDu]

South Carolina polls show Biden really surging. Looking like he is headed to a win by something like 15 percentage points. 538's current projection is:

Biden 39
Sanders 21
Steyer 14
Buttigieg 9
Warren 8
Klobuchar 5

If we see numbers like that...

• Klobuchar will drop out, perhaps even before Super Tuesday
• Buttigieg and Warren probably stick around for Super Tuesday, but they are almost certainly done right after that (they both may have enough delegates to play a role at a contested convention)
• I have no idea what Steyer is doing, because money is not a problem for him, but why bother to stay in at that point

But, most importantly, it could really impact Bloomberg. It has been widely reported that Bloomberg only got into the race because he saw Biden slumping and wanted there to be a viable alternative to Bernie. If Biden is surging, might Bloomberg suddenly reverse course and back him?

-Jason "this feel like the most unpredictable nominating contest since... 2016" Evans

I don't think Klobuchar or Warren will drop out before Super Tuesday. But I think they'll drop out shortly after. Klobuchar is the best threat to keep Sanders from winning Minnesota, and Warren the best chance at slowing him down in Massachusetts (and a few of the western states). After that, their value to the DNC largely disappears. Well, Klobuchar's value disappears. Warren would still have some value in that she steals some of Sanders' votes.

I feel like there's a very good chance that Klobuchar and Buttigieg are gone after Super Tuesday, and a decent chance Warren is too. But I would be surprised if they drop out before.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

South Carolina polls show Biden really surging. Looking like he is headed to a win by something like 15 percentage points. 538's current projection is:

Biden 39
Sanders 21
Steyer 14
Buttigieg 9
Warren 8
Klobuchar 5

If we see numbers like that...

• Klobuchar will drop out, perhaps even before Super Tuesday
• Buttigieg and Warren probably stick around for Super Tuesday, but they are almost certainly done right after that (they both may have enough delegates to play a role at a contested convention)
• I have no idea what Steyer is doing, because money is not a problem for him, but why bother to stay in at that point

But, most importantly, it could really impact Bloomberg. It has been widely reported that Bloomberg only got into the race because he saw Biden slumping and wanted there to be a viable alternative to Bernie. If Biden is surging, might Bloomberg suddenly reverse course and back him?

-Jason "this feel like the most unpredictable nominating contest since... 2016" Evans

At this point, with Super Tuesday in just a few days, what is the point of dropping out of Super Tuesday? To make nice with the Grand Poobahs of the Democratic Party for the long run? Several posters have suggested this for various candidates but I'm not clear on why a candidate would do this.

[OldPhiKap]

I think her strategy is to try to become the "compromise candidate" in a contested convention, which is why she has generally been playing nice with Bernie while focusing attacks on Bloomberg. (She can't become the enemy of Bernie Bros).

Anyway, because getting out before Super Tuesday lowers the odds of a contested convention, she will stay in until it's done.

Interesting take, it certainly has merit.

[Troublemaker]

Minnesota is also tight according to Nate Silver on twitter, so you could see Bernie toppling two Senators in their home states on Super Tuesday.

I'm very interested in TX from a gambling opportunity. Currently, Silver has the win probability as: TX—Biden 45%, Sanders 42%, Bloomberg 9%

The betting markets also have TX pretty even with Bernie ahead. I would expect that after Biden wins SC, Joe will move into being a slight favorite on PredictIt. At that point, I would pounce on Bernie because I believe his strength with Latinos and college students will carry him to victory there.

[JasonEvans]

I forgot that Minnesota was a Super Tuesday state too. I think Klob and Warren both stay in through Super Tuesday because it gives them the best shot to collect some delegates and have at least some influence at a contested convention. I could see either them being very interesting compromise candidates at the convention (Warren especially). They have each shown themselves to be really good debaters who could stand toe-to-toe with Donald.

[Nick]

Saw this on Twitter:

If the candidates were NC cities...
Sanders: Boone
Bloomberg: Charlotte
Buttigieg: Raleigh
Warren: Chapel Hill
Biden: Fayetteville and anywhere down east

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Saw this on Twitter:

If the candidates were NC cities...
Sanders: Boone
Bloomberg: Charlotte
Buttigieg: Raleigh
Warren: Chapel Hill
Biden: Fayetteville and anywhere down east

Asheville would go to war with Boone for Sanders. He's definitely the local favorite here

[Jeffrey]

At this point, with Super Tuesday in just a few days, what is the point of dropping out of Super Tuesday? To make nice with the Grand Poobahs of the Democratic Party for the long run? Several posters have suggested this for various candidates but I'm not clear on why a candidate would do this.

I agree, after such a significant investment, I would certainly stick around to see what happens Tuesday.