2020 Presidential Election

[Bluedog]

On 2 - that's a new one to me. I googled it and I still am not sure what it means and how it came to be.

I can shed some light on this. "Drumpf" is the ancestral surname of Trump supposedly as unearthed/popularized by John Oliver. Somebody changed it to Trump at some point. Oliver was telling his viewers to think of him as Drumpf instead as it has a less "powerful" feel to it. The "tard" part is a play on the fact that conservatives use the derisive term "libtard" to describe some liberals. So, it's using that against conservatives apparently. Both are obnoxious IMO...

[JasonEvans]

Worth watching... the latest Emerson College tracking poll from NH shows something pretty remarkable:



The experts say that poll may be a tad too bullish on Sanders, but I think the news is in 3rd place. If Klobuchar vaults to 3rd ahead of Biden and Warren, that would be a big deal. It would be a sign that moderates who are skeptical of Buttigieg are turning to her as they flee from Biden. That would be a very significant blow to Biden, I suspect. There are likely to be some big Buttigieg skeptics for a while and those folks are looking for someone else to back. If Klobuchar looks viable, I think she could turn out to be a player on Super Tuesday and beyond.

-Jason "meanwhile, it looks like NH is pretty set with Sanders having a small 4-6 point lead on Buttigieg. It would be a big surprise if anyone but those two got into the top 2" Evans

[Nick]

Anyone else think Biden's going to drop out shortly after Super Tuesday?

[OldPhiKap]

Anyone else think Biden's going to drop out shortly after Super Tuesday?

He certainly needs to change the trajectory of his campaign and his fundraising to avoid that.

[bundabergdevil]

Anyone else think Biden's going to drop out shortly after Super Tuesday?

He certainly needs to change the trajectory of his campaign and his fundraising to avoid that.

I think Biden will be in it until the end but if he wins the nomination then I'll be a lying dog-faced pony soldier.

[CDu]

Anyone else think Biden's going to drop out shortly after Super Tuesday?

I would be surprised by that. Iowa (especially due to caucus) and New Hampshire (lily-white) are two of Biden's worst states demographically. They just happen to be first. Biden's support comes largely from African-Americans, who don't tend to live in Iowa or New Hampshire. He certainly did worse than he had hoped in Iowa, but he was not likely to win there. And he was/is even less likely to win in New Hampshire.

Worth noting that Biden is still polling ahead nationally (though only slightly ahead of Sanders) as of last week. So I'd imagine that he'll see a bounce on Super Tuesday, which has several Southern states.

[Jeffrey]

I would be surprised by that. Iowa (especially due to caucus) and New Hampshire (lily-white) are two of Biden's worst states demographically. They just happen to be first. Biden's support comes largely from African-Americans, who don't tend to live in Iowa or New Hampshire. He certainly did worse than he had hoped in Iowa, but he was not likely to win there. And he was/is even less likely to win in New Hampshire.

Worth noting that Biden is still polling ahead nationally (though only slightly ahead of Sanders) as of last week. So I'd imagine that he'll see a bounce on Super Tuesday, which has several Southern states.

I agree, Biden is not dropping out in March. I'm still not sure the USA is ready for Sanders. OTOH, Trump is probably ready to discuss Sanders in the 80's (decade, not age).

[sagegrouse]

I agree, Biden is not dropping out in March. I'm still not sure the USA is ready for Sanders. OTOH, Trump is probably ready to discuss Sanders in the 80's (decade, not age).

I would go further and say the Democratic Party is not ready for Sanders. He has a great stump speech of totally unrealistic proposals not supported by the majority of the country and has never worked effectively with anyone in Congress, leaving him with few friends among the Dems -- and he is a self-described Democratic Socialist, not a Democrat.. Should he win NH, as expected, and upset Biden in SC, there will be a huge uproar as the "Party" decides how to counter Sanders. Party leaders will probably coalesce around one of the moderate candidates or go all-in on Bloomberg. The storm within the Dems may move an alternative to the front, or, such overt moves may backfire, propelling Sanders even further ahead.

[bundabergdevil]

I would go further and say the Democratic Party is not ready for Sanders. He has a great stump speech of totally unrealistic proposals not supported by the majority of the country and has never worked effectively with anyone in Congress, leaving him with few friends among the Dems -- and he is a self-described Democratic Socialist, not a Democrat.. Should he win NH, as expected, and upset Biden in SC, there will be a huge uproar as the "Party" decides how to counter Sanders. Party leaders will probably coalesce around one of the moderate candidates or go all-in on Bloomberg. The storm within the Dems may move an alternative to the front, or, such overt moves may backfire, propelling Sanders even further ahead.

The scenario you describe above is essentially what the Republicans experienced in 2016 with Trump with the end resulted bolded. The big question is whether the Democratic base is so fired up and angry at the party apparatus and appalled by the opponent (both conditions for Republicans in 2016) that Sanders, whose populism is most akin to Trump's, can harness the angst and ride the wave to victory. I am still doubtful this will happen but less doubtful than I was about a week ago...

[OldPhiKap]

I would be surprised by that. Iowa (especially due to caucus) and New Hampshire (lily-white) are two of Biden's worst states demographically. They just happen to be first. Biden's support comes largely from African-Americans, who don't tend to live in Iowa or New Hampshire. He certainly did worse than he had hoped in Iowa, but he was not likely to win there. And he was/is even less likely to win in New Hampshire.

Worth noting that Biden is still polling ahead nationally (though only slightly ahead of Sanders) as of last week. So I'd imagine that he'll see a bounce on Super Tuesday, which has several Southern states.

But how solid is Biden's support in the African-American community?

Obama IIRC was third in polling amongst African-Americans until after New Hampshire. Right now in SC, Steyer is running strong and Bernie has policies that could also break into that group. I still see Buttigieg having trouble breaking into it, but other than that I have not seen anything to suggest that Biden's support is really as strong/deep as has been projected to date.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

But how solid is Biden's support in the African-American community?

Obama IIRC was third in polling amongst African-Americans until after New Hampshire. Right now in SC, Steyer is running strong and Bernie has policies that could also break into that group. I still see Buttigieg having trouble breaking into it, but other than that I have not seen anything to suggest that Biden's support is really as strong/deep as has been projected to date.

I saw Biden this morning on CBS this morning (the always present satellite delay didn't help him seem less old) and I worry that "African-Americans" is the entirety of his game plan.

Just saying "Obama" every ten minutes to remind folks you were in his corner doesn't really make for a strategy.

[JasonEvans]

I would be surprised by that. Iowa (especially due to caucus) and New Hampshire (lily-white) are two of Biden's worst states demographically. They just happen to be first. Biden's support comes largely from African-Americans, who don't tend to live in Iowa or New Hampshire. He certainly did worse than he had hoped in Iowa, but he was not likely to win there. And he was/is even less likely to win in New Hampshire.

Worth noting that Biden is still polling ahead nationally (though only slightly ahead of Sanders) as of last week. So I'd imagine that he'll see a bounce on Super Tuesday, which has several Southern states.

The only thing I would note about these first two states not being good for Biden is that they seemed perfectly fine for him until he cratered in the polls. Sure, his most staunch base of support seems to be in the AfAm community but it is not like he had zero support among white voters. He was doing fine until Buttigieg and Klobuchar took away the white moderate vote. 538 was forecasting Biden to win 26% of the vote in Iowa... he won 14%. I don't buy the excuse that Biden's slide is all because the first two states don't have many minority voters. It is an absolute fact that Biden has slipped among White moderates. Who is to say that he would not have similarly slipped among AfAm voters if there had been a large chunk of them in Iowa too?

-Jason "If Biden does not find a way to reconnect with voters and turn this around, he's going to lose in SC too" Evans

[Acymetric]

But how solid is Biden's support in the African-American community?

Obama IIRC was third in polling amongst African-Americans until after New Hampshire. Right now in SC, Steyer is running strong and Bernie has policies that could also break into that group. I still see Buttigieg having trouble breaking into it, but other than that I have not seen anything to suggest that Biden's support is really as strong/deep as has been projected to date.

Right, that support is basically just inertia and name recognition. If the narrative continues to shift against him with underwhelming results in the early primaries, and he continues laying eggs in debates, I would expect that support to start gravitating elsewhere.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I saw Biden this morning on CBS this morning (the always present satellite delay didn't help him seem less old) and I worry that "African-Americans" is the entirety of his game plan.

Just saying "Obama" every ten minutes to remind folks you were in his corner doesn't really make for a strategy.

I know she is barely on the fringes of the election but if I were Klobuchar's staff, I would be spending a lot of time figuring out how to make her appealing to African-Americans and other minorities (noting that these groups do not vote as a homogeneous block, as much as many would like us to think they do). Buttigieg clearly has his challenges in this area, as does Bloomberg. If she can wait out Biden and capture this constituency from him if he eventually runs out of money or steps aside for another reason, it could really launch her campaign. Minnesota actually has a fairly large minority population, though she would have to tread very carefully around Ellison and Omar (who likely wouldn't support her anyway) as they are potential lightning rods.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I know she is barely on the fringes of the election but if I were Klobuchar's staff, I would be spending a lot of time figuring out how to make her appealing to African-Americans and other minorities (noting that these groups do not vote as a homogeneous block, as much as many would like us to think they do). Buttigieg clearly has his challenges in this area, as does Bloomberg. If she can wait out Biden and capture this constituency from him if he eventually runs out of money or steps aside for another reason, it could really launch her campaign. Minnesota actually has a fairly large minority population, though she would have to tread very carefully around Ellison and Omar (who likely wouldn't support her anyway) as they are potential lightning rods.

Agreed. Klobuchar is nicely positioned as the "other" moderate candidate. Her platform is middle of the road, she has lots of experience in DC, she can break some barriers of her own if she wins, and she's in inoffensive midwesterner who might make a difference in Ohio, Michigan, and other swing states.

[JasonEvans]

The scenario you describe above is essentially what the Republicans experienced in 2016 with Trump with the end resulted bolded. The big question is whether the Democratic base is so fired up and angry at the party apparatus and appalled by the opponent (both conditions for Republicans in 2016) that Sanders, whose populism is most akin to Trump's, can harness the angst and ride the wave to victory. I am still doubtful this will happen but less doubtful than I was about a week ago...

Does anyone know at what point Donald Trump first won a state with more than 50% of the vote? It was mid-April. 34 states had already voted by the time he first passed the 50% mark. But, because of the way the GOP allocates delegates, he had a huge delegate lead despite winning lots of states with about 1/3rd of the vote. Then, as the field began to drop out, he sailed to the nomination because the back half of the GOP calendar was almost all winner-take-all states. He would get 45-55% of the vote but win all of the delegates.

That won't happen for the Democrats because of the proportional allocation in every single state. To get 50% of the Democratic delegates you are going to have to win a ton of states with about 60% or more of the vote (to make up for the ones where you only get 1/3rd of the delegates or worse). I think it is going to be really hard for Bernie to do that, especially if Bloomberg is spending hundreds of millions to stay viable and prevent Bernie from getting there.

-Jason "I'm starting to think there is at least a 40% chance of a contested convention" Evans

[budwom]

The scenario you describe above is essentially what the Republicans experienced in 2016 with Trump with the end resulted bolded. The big question is whether the Democratic base is so fired up and angry at the party apparatus and appalled by the opponent (both conditions for Republicans in 2016) that Sanders, whose populism is most akin to Trump's, can harness the angst and ride the wave to victory. I am still doubtful this will happen but less doubtful than I was about a week ago...

Indeed..the Dems might consider figuring out what drives Sanders supporters and finding a way to address their issues. I'm not sure they can win without them, and they do bring an enthusiasm severely lacking in some of the other campaigns (I'm looking at you, Joe).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Indeed..the Dems might consider figuring out what drives Sanders supporters and finding a way to address their issues. I'm not sure they can win without them, and they do bring an enthusiasm severely lacking in some of the other campaigns (I'm looking at you, Joe).

Again, anecdotal, but an employee of mine who is maybe 25 says he literally knows no one in his age bracket who likes Uncle Joe. Seems maybe Biden has overstayed his welcome and maybe should have faded out post 2016.

[JasonEvans]

Agreed. Klobuchar is nicely positioned as the "other" moderate candidate. Her platform is middle of the road, she has lots of experience in DC, she can break some barriers of her own if she wins, and she's in inoffensive midwesterner who might make a difference in Ohio, Michigan, and other swing states.

I actually think Klobuchar has one of the best paths forward of any of the candidates. She should be out there talking about how she is the logical choice for folks who are fleeing Biden and should spend every day surrounded by as many AfAm leaders as she can find.

-Jason "want to be bold, Amy... announce Cory Booker as your running mate right now. That would be a really strong ticket, I think" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Again, anecdotal, but an employee of mine who is maybe 25 says he literally knows no one in his age bracket who likes Uncle Joe. Seems maybe Biden has overstayed his welcome and maybe should have faded out post 2016.

I pointed out an Iowa poll about 3 months ago that had Biden at 3% among voters under 25. And that was when Biden was still leading in Iowa polling.