2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

Now that Beto is in and Biden has effectively leaked his decision, I think polls are starting to have some meaning. Here is a brand new one from CNN/SSRS of Democrats/leaners who plan to vote in the Dem primaries/caucuses:

Biden 28%
Sanders 20%
Harris 12%
O’Rourke 11%
Warren 6%
Kerry 4%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Buttigieg 1%
Castro 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Inslee 1%
Delaney *
Gabbard *
McAuliffe *
Bullock *

I also found this question pretty revealing... it may indicate that even though Sanders has a lot of support right now, it could be hard for him to build a coalition of 50% of Democratic voters:

Democrats' Chances in 2020 Are Better...
With Bernie Sanders 33%
Without Bernie Sanders 56%

Same question with Uncle Joe does not yield the same results:

Democrats' Chances in 2020 Are Better...
With Joe Biden 51%
Without Joe Biden 36%

-Jason "Kerry?? Why are we even asking about him? He ain't running" Evans

[JNort]

Why do Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson get "secondary status" they're both running... I don't know much about Williamson, and (((redacted for policy debate))).

Still, I'm excited to see him in the democratic debates as he'll bring a fringe idea to the eyes of the public.

Anyway, I'm calling out your bias towards Yang and Williamson in the friendliest of possible ways. Just wanted to see if you had any reason to put them separate from the other candidates.

I thought the same thing (Not that JE was being biased). Yang I hear about more so than all but maybe 3 or 4 candidates (Biden, Bernie, Beto, and Warren).

[

I hate to rumor monger as I know it is forbidden here, but there were fairly prominent rumors that Booker is gay (I mentioned who Booker is dating to my Ivy-educated, socially tolerant, pop-culture expert wife and her immediate response was "I thought he was gay"). So though this brings into play Dawson's past political history, it also dispels another story line. I would like to think that in current times neither of these would be an issue that would influence how people vote, but a frightening number of people will make one or both an issue, particularly if he gets the nomination. Though I think that many of those who would care about these things wouldn't vote for him anyway.

I didn't realize he wasn't gay, I kind of assumed he was. The whole new GF thing threw me off and I hope it's not just him being pressured to do it for appearances.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I thought the same thing (Not that JE was being biased). Yang I hear about more so than all but maybe 3 or 4 candidates (Biden, Bernie, Beto, and Warren).

[



I didn't realize he wasn't gay, I kind of assumed he was. The whole new GF thing threw me off and I hope it's not just him being pressured to do it for appearances.

I also assumed he was. I have to admit, I don't know if it would make much difference if he were openly gay. The people who it would matter to most are probably the folks least likely to vote for him anyway.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I also assumed he was. I have to admit, I don't know if it would make much difference if he were openly gay. The people who it would matter to most are probably the folks least likely to vote for him anyway.

Thank you - this is my point. Sorry I caused confusion by using the dirty word "rumor" but I would rather qualify my statements then act like 95% of the American public who reads something from a questionable source and then authoritatively goes around stating it as fact. But there are a lot of people out there who defaulted to the notion that he is gay. I agree that it would likely have little impact on potential voters as most of those who care wouldn't have voted for him anyway, but it would be a distraction from talking about the issues, which people don't really do anymore anyway.

To the question above about why I think it is troubling (perhaps frightening was too strong of a word) that people would care strong about the political views of Dawson if they stay together and Booker progresses: if the political views of the First Lady are so critical to voters, please provide me with a detailed analysis of Melania Trump's views on anything. I guess many people assume that by not expressing opinions she is either completely aligned with her husband or won't get involved (which is likely the case). First wives do a delicate dance about when to speak out and when not to, but personally, unless they are really out there (I guess some people view Bernie as really out there), the opinions of the candidate's wife are pretty far down on my list of considerations as to whether to vote for someone.

[OldPhiKap]

Now that Beto is in and Biden has effectively leaked his decision, I think polls are starting to have some meaning. Here is a brand new one from CNN/SSRS of Democrats/leaners who plan to vote in the Dem primaries/caucuses:

Biden 28%
Sanders 20%
Harris 12%
O’Rourke 11%
Warren 6%
Kerry 4%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Buttigieg 1%
Castro 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Inslee 1%
Delaney *
Gabbard *
McAuliffe *
Bullock *

Interesting, thanks Jason.

I think that the biggest indicator of strength in the next four months will not be any poll -- it will be the second quarter fundraising totals of each candidate. (Which is why I think Uncle Joe is waiting until after 3/31 to announce, he wants his first big push to count for Q2). My guess is that the top four you see on that poll will be the top four fundraisers, and if one of them stumbles below the top five they are in serious trouble.

Polls at this point are hypothetical. Dollars are real.

[Jeffrey]

I didn't realize he wasn't gay, I kind of assumed he was. The whole new GF thing threw me off and I hope it's not just him being pressured to do it for appearances.

I also assumed he was. I have to admit, I don't know if it would make much difference if he were openly gay. The people who it would matter to most are probably the folks least likely to vote for him anyway.

Many appear to assume he is, which is why the honesty of his responses may be questioned by his opponents. I doubt Trump would ignore it.

“I’m heterosexual,” Booker said in an interview Thursday when asked about insinuations that he is gay. He has addressed the same point before — and is practiced at moving on to the bigger picture: ”Every candidate should run on their authentic self, tell their truth, and more importantly, or mostly importantly, talk about their vision for the country."

https://www.philly.com/news/cory-boo...-20181214.html

[IrishDevil]

[snip]

To the question above about why I think it is troubling (perhaps frightening was too strong of a word) that people would care strong about the political views of Dawson if they stay together and Booker progresses: if the political views of the First Lady are so critical to voters, please provide me with a detailed analysis of Melania Trump's views on anything. I guess many people assume that by not expressing opinions she is either completely aligned with her husband or won't get involved (which is likely the case). First wives do a delicate dance about when to speak out and when not to, but personally, unless they are really out there (I guess some people view Bernie as really out there), the opinions of the candidate's wife are pretty far down on my list of considerations as to whether to vote for someone.

Do you mean that it would be troubling to you if voters considered Dawson's politics critical? My question was why it would be troubling if Dawson's political past were to be an issue, which was your original comment. I did not say her views would be critical to voters or otherwise indicate their relative importance among other issues; I agree with you, I suspect the voting public would consider a potential First Lady's political views far less important than many other considerations.

That said, an issue is not necessarily a critical issue, and could instead be a lesser issue among many. If a potential First Lady has been politically active and outspoken, it seems possible that a voter, rather than discounting those political views, might take her politics into consideration as either a reflection of the candidate's, a potential influence on the candidate's to the extent they differ, or an indication of her own future political focus as First Lady. To your point, I don't know Melania Trump's political views, but if she had a political past equivalent to Dawson's such that it was in the news during the election season, I still don't understand why any of the above would have been different for her, or troubling for voters to consider it at all in either case.

Or do you mean that it would be troubling if voters considered Dawson's political views as "really out there," since that is when they would merit attention? I assume this is not what you meant, though, because that also seems like a statement of personal political opinion and PPB material.

I'm not trying to be obtuse (though I may come by it naturally anyway) and I really enjoy the neutral election discussion on this board, so I am just genuinely curious about your statements. And if this is becoming too counting-angels-on-pinheads for the thread at large, my apologies, I'm happy to continue by PM.

[mkirsh]

Interesting story in today's Post. While not a "real" candidate for the Democratic primary, former Senator Mike Gravel has announced his candidacy and handed over his twitter account to a trio of teenagers who are using it to push the party in a more progressive direction, and they are doing it by calling out other candidates directly. Their goal isn't to win the nomination as Gravel is 88, but to get him into the debates to ensure a progressive platform. Unclear if the viral sensation will fizzle out or have any lasting impact on the race, but a fun story.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...=.7c97143c4356

[OldPhiKap]

Interesting story in today's Post. While not a "real" candidate for the Democratic primary, former Senator Mike Gravel has announced his candidacy and handed over his twitter account to a trio of teenagers who are using it to push the party in a more progressive direction, and they are doing it by calling out other candidates directly. Their goal isn't to win the nomination as Gravel is 88, but to get him into the debates to ensure a progressive platform. Unclear if the viral sensation will fizzle out or have any lasting impact on the race, but a fun story.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...=.7c97143c4356

Virtual candidates. I'm going home.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Virtual candidates. I'm going home.

Based on Trump's speech yesterday he seems to be concerned that McCain is also opposing him and he is dead.

[OldPhiKap]

Based on Trump's speech yesterday he seems to be concerned that McCain is also opposing him and he is dead.

In John Ashcroft's final election, he lost to a dead guy. So . . . .

Unrelated question, really, but -- would a cow dictate its tweets and have someone else type them, or would a cow use a really big keyboard and peck them out? It's been bugging me since yesterday morning.

[dudog84]

In John Ashcroft's final election, he lost to a dead guy. So . . . .

Unrelated question, really, but -- would a cow dictate its tweets and have someone else type them, or would a cow use a really big keyboard and peck them out? It's been bugging me since yesterday morning.

That's a real cownundrum.

[CameronBornAndBred]

That's a real cownundrum.

That is udderly awful. Stop it!

[Indoor66]

That is udderly awful. Stop it!

You guys are milking this for all its worth.

[Lord Ash]

That is udderly awful. Stop it!

Personally I find that a good pun to be moo-sic to my ears.

[Reilly]

... would a cow dictate its tweets and have someone else type them, or would a cow use a really big keyboard ...

I believe this question was answered a while ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Click,_Clack,_Moo

[OldPhiKap]

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I believe this question was answered a while ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Click,_Clack,_Moo

[bundabergdevil]

In John Ashcroft's final election, he lost to a dead guy. So . . . .

Unrelated question, really, but -- would a cow dictate its tweets and have someone else type them, or would a cow use a really big keyboard and peck them out? It's been bugging me since yesterday morning.

I don't know but Devin Nunes thinks its worth $250 million to find out...

[OldPhiKap]

I don't know but Devin Nunes thinks its worth $250 million to find out...

That is a lot of moo-lah.

[bundabergdevil]

That is a lot of moo-lah.

Sends a clear message: "I've got beef with you."