2020 Presidential Election

[Jeffrey]

... I am now ecstatic that I never had kids.

I am always ecstatic I did. It was one of the best decisions of my life.

[Bostondevil]

How bad will the coronavirus outbreak have to be before it affects the election, do you think?

Funding for the branch of the CDC that manages global infectious disease outbreaks has been significantly cut during this administration.

[bundabergdevil]

How bad will the coronavirus outbreak have to be before it affects the election, do you think?

Funding for the branch of the CDC that manages global infectious disease outbreaks has been significantly cut during this administration.

I would imagine outbreaks in far away parts of the world could serve to bolster anti-immigration policies and things like travel bans.

I’ve actually been somewhat surprised that Trump or other anti-immigration advocates in the US haven’t embraced climate change. In mainland Europe, many conservatives and far right parties have accepted climate science and use it to push for stricter immigration policies, particularly on the back of the N Africa influx over the last 5-10 years When conservatives in the US finally accept the science, expect immigration policy to be the gateway drug that gets them there.

[Bostondevil]

I would imagine outbreaks in far away parts of the world could serve to bolster anti-immigration policies and things like travel bans.

I’ve actually been somewhat surprised that Trump or other anti-immigration advocates in the US haven’t embraced climate change. In mainland Europe, many conservatives and far right parties have accepted climate science and use it to push for stricter immigration policies, particularly on the back of the N Africa influx over the last 5-10 years When conservatives in the US finally accept the science, expect immigration policy to be the gateway drug that gets them there.

I don't disagree with you, but the virus is already here. A Democratic candidate could certainly make the case that the funding cuts are why there are cases in the US. Something on the order of "Obama kept Ebola out. Trump let coronavirus in. I will return the CDC to Obama levels of protection." Simplistic but probably quite effective, especially if there is any significant loss of life due to the virus in the US.

[JasonEvans]

I don't disagree with you, but the virus is already here. A Democratic candidate could certainly make the case that the funding cuts are why there are cases in the US. Something on the order of "Obama kept Ebola out. Trump let coronavirus in. I will return the CDC to Obama levels of protection." Simplistic but probably quite effective, especially if there is any significant loss of life due to the virus in the US.

I hear ya and I think it could be part of an effective series of statements about ways Trump has impacted federal spending (on health, the environment, schools, etc) while agitating for funds to build what many Americans think is a pointless wall.

But I also sorta feel like the universe of people who decide their presidential vote based on CDC funding is exceedingly tiny and I suspect all of them were already voting against Trump.

[JasonEvans]

This is it!! The last straw!! Trump has gone too far!!

The newly unveiled logo for Trump's Space Force bears a striking resemblance to something else.

[Bostondevil]

I hear ya and I think it could be part of an effective series of statements about ways Trump has impacted federal spending (on health, the environment, schools, etc) while agitating for funds to build what many Americans think is a pointless wall.

But I also sorta feel like the universe of people who decide their presidential vote based on CDC funding is exceedingly tiny and I suspect all of them were already voting against Trump.

Agreed. But back to my original question - how big would the outbreak have to be for it to affect the election? I imagine if a family member dies from coronavirus, a voter might give CDC funding more weight. What's the scope and how many deaths? Does is have to be a family member - what about a friend, a co-worker, a member of your church? At what point do people start looking around and saying public health, the CDC, and expertise in such matters is actually important?

[bundabergdevil]

This is it!! The last straw!! Trump has gone too far!!

The newly unveiled logo for Trump's Space Force bears a striking resemblance to something else.

Life imitates art.

[OldPhiKap]

Life imitates art.

Just don’t give them red uniforms, please.

[Troublemaker]

Agreed. But back to my original question - how big would the outbreak have to be for it to affect the election? I imagine if a family member dies from coronavirus, a voter might give CDC funding more weight. What's the scope and how many deaths? Does is have to be a family member - what about a friend, a co-worker, a member of your church? At what point do people start looking around and saying public health, the CDC, and expertise in such matters is actually important?

It's hard to imagine how an outbreak here wouldn't end up being a net benefit to Trump. He would enact a travel ban from China and quarantine any Chinese national in America that had recently traveled. The Ds would reflexively disagree with him and call him names while the majority of America would agree with his actions, privately or otherwise. So maybe he loses some voters over CDC funding, but they would be vastly outnumbered by the gains, imo.

But, whether Trump benefits or not, let's hope it doesn't come to that. Let's hope the number of American deaths from coronavirus is minimal. Additionally, let's hope China gets a handle on the situation, doesn't end up losing tens of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of lives, and is honest about the lethality and contagiousness of the disease.

[OldPhiKap]

Another poll shows Bernie surging in Iowa near the end:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...in-iowa-104204

Warren fading. Breakdown shows top four all split the female vote pretty evenly. Warren doing poorly with men. Bernie>Biden amongst men under 30, Biden>Bernie with men over 65.

Also of note:

For Democrats who worry that nominating Sanders — a self-avowed “democratic socialist” who is proposing a massive expansion of the federal government — will hurt the party’s chances of defeating President Donald Trump in the fall, the New York Times/Siena poll will offer little to ease their concerns.

In a general-election matchup in Iowa — a swing state Barack Obama carried twice before Trump flipped it in 2016 — Trump leads Sanders by 6 points, the poll shows, 48 percent to 42 percent. That’s a slightly larger margin than Trump has over other Democrats: He leads Buttigieg by 1 point, Biden by 2 points and both Warren and Klobuchar by 5 points.

[bundabergdevil]

It's hard to imagine how an outbreak here wouldn't end up being a net benefit to Trump. He would enact a travel ban from China and quarantine any Chinese national in America that had recently traveled. The Ds would reflexively disagree with him and call him names while the majority of America would agree with his actions, privately or otherwise. So maybe he loses some voters over CDC funding, but they would be vastly outnumbered by the gains, imo.

But, whether Trump benefits or not, let's hope it doesn't come to that. Let's hope the number of American deaths from coronavirus is minimal. Additionally, let's hope China gets a handle on the situation, doesn't end up losing tens of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of lives, and is honest about the lethality and contagiousness of the disease.

Right on cue regarding travel bans:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/senator-just-asked-4-trumps-194852096.html

[budwom]

I somehow doubt the Dems are going to expend very much political capital for the benefit of Chinese nationals visiting here. And China will duly note that lots of Americans visit China and could become subject to restrictions...not sure we need or will get a tourism war.

[Bostondevil]

It's hard to imagine how an outbreak here wouldn't end up being a net benefit to Trump. He would enact a travel ban from China and quarantine any Chinese national in America that had recently traveled. The Ds would reflexively disagree with him and call him names while the majority of America would agree with his actions, privately or otherwise. So maybe he loses some voters over CDC funding, but they would be vastly outnumbered by the gains, imo.

But, whether Trump benefits or not, let's hope it doesn't come to that. Let's hope the number of American deaths from coronavirus is minimal. Additionally, let's hope China gets a handle on the situation, doesn't end up losing tens of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of lives, and is honest about the lethality and contagiousness of the disease.

Really? I mean, it will have happened on his watch. I'm not saying I can't imagine it being a net benefit to Trump, but it isn't hard to imagine it would become a big problem.

But that wasn't what I asked. I wondered how big the outbreak would have to be to affect the election. Right now, it's not going to change anything. I also hope it doesn't get to be a big enough deal to affect the election, but, it could. If it gets big enough, it will be a question asked in the summer debates - how are you going to handle infectious disease preparedness in your administration? I mean, travel bans to China will only matter with this disease, will the next one come from China? We don't know.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The Des Moines Register endorses Warren.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/des-moine...000804593.html

[CameronBornAndBred]

The Bernie Bros are happy, he's leading by a far margin in this Iowa poll.

Mr. Sanders has gained six points since the last Times-Siena survey, in late October, and is now capturing 25 percent of the vote in Iowa. Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. have remained stagnant since the fall, with Mr. Buttigieg capturing 18 percent and Mr. Biden 17 percent.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...nds/ar-BBZiYoT

[OldPhiKap]

The Bernie Bros are happy, he's leading by a far margin in this Iowa poll.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...nds/ar-BBZiYoT

Two polls out this morning:

NBC/Marist
Sanders 22%
Buttigieg 17%
Biden 15%
Warren 13%
Klobuchar 10%
Gabbard 6%
Yang 5%
(MOE 4.5)

CNN/UNH
Sanders 25%
Biden 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 6%
Gabbard 5%
Yang 5%
(MOE 4.3)

[bundabergdevil]

Two polls out this morning:

NBC/Marist
Sanders 22%
Buttigieg 17%
Biden 15%
Warren 13%
Klobuchar 10%
Gabbard 6%
Yang 5%
(MOE 4.5)

CNN/UNH
Sanders 25%
Biden 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 6%
Gabbard 5%
Yang 5%
(MOE 4.3)

Interesting. Sanders in Iowa appears to be a thing about a week out.

[sagegrouse]

Interesting. Sanders in Iowa appears to be a thing about a week out.

OMG -- I guess Bernie has a chance to win this thing. Until the recent comment by Elizabeth Warren, Dems have pretty much left Bernie alone -- Hillary did not directly attack him in 2016 -- because he has strong supporters but wasn't a threat to win anything. Now it will start -- "socialism," "not a Democrat," "on unemployment in his twenties," "government takeover of health care," "wife drove her college into bankruptcy," "no friends in the Senate," "no endorsements from Dems," "fiscal disaster for America," etc., etc.

One week of relative quiet until after Iowa, but the drumbeats against Bernie will be loud leading into Super Tuesday.

[budwom]

yes, and the anti Bernie drumbeats being tried out in NH seem to be backfiring, probably because people there already know the man's weaknesses and strengths.