2020 Presidential Election

[golfinesquire]

Technically, they did not. Their oppoents received more votes in each case. Neither won a majority. They both won a PLURALITY. In fact, since I've been able to vote in 1992, Obama has been the only President to win a MAJORITY of the popular vote and he did it twice.

If I had just one wish, it would be to get rid of any plurality winner-take-all race anywhere. I know it's a silly thing to nit-pick about...but most of us feel the same way about mean and median but those darn mathematicians keep telling us they are different types of averages. Whatevs.

Again, your majority/plurality point is kinda irrelevant. The point being made is that, for all the criticism of running a moderate, the two moderates actually won more votes that the next highest vote getter.

[OldPhiKap]

I would like to see a few Biden v. Trump, Bernie v. Trump, Warren v. Trump polls in places like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etcetera. The national polls all show that the three Dems are within a smidge of each other in a match-up with the President, but that is not the metric that matters. I would like to test my thesis against actual polling, recognizing that polling this far out is of little value. It would at least give me a benchmark moving towards the convention.

[dudog84]

I would like to see a few Biden v. Trump, Bernie v. Trump, Warren v. Trump polls in places like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etcetera. The national polls all show that the three Dems are within a smidge of each other in a match-up with the President, but that is not the metric that matters. I would like to test my thesis against actual polling, recognizing that polling this far out is of little value. It would at least give me a benchmark moving towards the convention.

Your wish is my command!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/florida/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-general/ohio/

BIG caveat: FL and OH are from October, and I don't believe Trump is ahead of Biden by 4 in PA.

It is kinda fun (and time-wasting) (and probably a waste of time) to search the various polls at the top of any of these pages.

[OldPhiKap]

Your wish is my command!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/florida/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-general/ohio/

BIG caveat: FL and OH are from October, and I don't believe Trump is ahead of Biden by 4 in PA.

It is kinda fun (and time-wasting) (and probably a waste of time) to search the various polls at the top of any of these pages.

Interesting, thanks! Two things I found of note:

1. Overall -- Biden may only be a few points ahead of Warren and Sanders in the match-up generally, but those few points often make the difference between beating Trump and losing or falling into a tie. (Yeah, I know, margins of error and all)

2. More interestingly, they are polling to see how the Dems do if Pence is the Rep nominee.

[JasonEvans]

Gore’s three debate performances really hurt him too. They were just -- weird.

He was singularly unrelatable as a candidate too. Wooden as my back deck.

Gore didn’t even win his home state. If he had, the Florida recount would have been irrelevant.

There is many a political pundit who think's Daryl Hammond's spot on impression doomed Gore.


Lockbox...

[dudog84]

It's tough being wealthy in this country. Those better off are unhappier than the struggling/modest, and of course the "Get Off My Lawn" crowd are holding up their end.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ne...PBD?li=BBnbcA1

[PackMan97]

It's tough being wealthy in this country. Those better off are unhappier than the struggling/modest, and of course the "Get Off My Lawn" crowd are holding up their end.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ne...PBD?li=BBnbcA1

We went four glorious days without a post and you had to ruin it! anti-sporks for you!

[CameronBornAndBred]

We went four glorious days without a post and you had to ruin it! anti-sporks for you!

BWAHAHAHA!!! I was thinking the same thing yesterday. Did it actually fall off the front page? I know it had to have come close, it was at the bottom last I looked.

[dudog84]

We went four glorious days without a post and you had to ruin it! anti-sporks for you!

Gosh, ain't I a stinker!

(must be said in your Bugs Bunny voice to appreciate)

Edit to add for those who are not edumicated:

[bundabergdevil]

BWAHAHAHA!!! I was thinking the same thing yesterday. Did it actually fall off the front page? I know it had to have come close, it was at the bottom last I looked.

It was a Christmas Miracle!

[dudog84]

According to this article, The Military Times latest poll has Trump's approval among the military at 42%, his lowest ever. In 2016, he took 61% of the military vote.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fo...q8x?li=BBnbfcL

I'm assuming overseas military votes accrue to the home base location for the all-important Electoral College. Obviously this could make a difference in North Carolina, but also in places like Florida (Pensacola, etc.).

Texas, Virginia, and Georgia are also in the top 6.

[Indoor66]

According to this article, The Military Times latest poll has Trump's approval among the military at 42%, his lowest ever. In 2016, he took 61% of the military vote.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fo...q8x?li=BBnbfcL

I'm assuming overseas military votes accrue to the home base location for the all-important Electoral College. Obviously this could make a difference in North Carolina, but also in places like Florida (Pensacola, etc.).

Texas, Virginia, and Georgia are also in the top 6.

I believe most military vote in their home state of record rather than their stationing locale.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I believe most military vote in their home state of record rather than their stationing locale.

Agreed. I have been told (pls correct me if I am wrong) that most military members who have been stationed in a no tax state like FL keep that as their state of record for the rest of their military careers for the tax benefit.

[dudog84]

I believe most military vote in their home state of record rather than their stationing locale.

Agreed. I have been told (pls correct me if I am wrong) that most military members who have been stationed in a no tax state like FL keep that as their state of record for the rest of their military careers for the tax benefit.

That makes it even worse for Trump since Florida is the most important swing state. And that reminded me that I met a military person over 30 years ago who told me that he claimed a relative's house (grandmother, I think) in Florida for his domicile for this reason.

Did a bit of research, this site does enlistment by state, but more importantly has a section on enlistment as a proportion of the state's population. Georgia is tops with a ratio of 1.5, meaning it contributed 50% more than it's share. Next are Florida, South Carolina, Virginia, and Arizona. 4 of those 5 can be considered swing states if the trend in Georgia continues.

https://www.cfr.org/article/demographics-us-military

[PackMan97]

Joe Biden Says He Would Defy Subpoena in Trump Impeachment Trial

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/polit...ify/index.html

His comments come as Republicans have threatened to call Democrats -- including Biden and his son, Hunter -- to testify in a Senate impeachment trial after the House impeached Trump earlier this month, accusing him of abusing his power and obstructing Congress in relation to a Ukraine pressure campaign.

Biden said he wouldn't comply with a subpoena "because it's all designed to deal with Trump doing what he's done his whole life -- trying to take the focus off him."

When asked if defying a congressional subpoena could create the appearance that he is above the law, Biden held that his testimony would enable the President to "get away" from the trial's focus.

Is Joe jumping the gun here? Seems like an opinion you don't really need to have yet...or is it just laying the ground work so if he is subpoenaed it's no big deal when he refuses. Unlike the Republicans (who have no choice with Trump), the Democrats still have the primary to go. Is this a non-story, or does it have an impact? I really have no idea what is happening in the world any longer.

[dudog84]

Joe Biden Says He Would Defy Subpoena in Trump Impeachment Trial

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/polit...ify/index.html



Is Joe jumping the gun here? Seems like an opinion you don't really need to have yet...or is it just laying the ground work so if he is subpoenaed it's no big deal when he refuses. Unlike the Republicans (who have no choice with Trump), the Democrats still have the primary to go. Is this a non-story, or does it have an impact? I really have no idea what is happening in the world any longer.

He's already kinda walked it back. Said he would comply with any legitimate request. Will be some interesting jousting in the next few weeks. But it's worth trying "If the president (or Bolton, Mulvaney, etc.) won't comply, why should I?". I may even try it with my next subpoena.

[Bob Green]

I believe most military vote in their home state of record rather than their stationing locale.

You are required to vote in your home of record.

Military members can change their home of record but there are requirements and consequences. I kept North Carolina as my home of record throughout my career.

[sagegrouse]

According to this article, The Military Times latest poll has Trump's approval among the military at 42%, his lowest ever. In 2016, he took 61% of the military vote.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fo...q8x?li=BBnbfcL

I'm assuming overseas military votes accrue to the home base location for the all-important Electoral College. Obviously this could make a difference in North Carolina, but also in places like Florida (Pensacola, etc.).

Texas, Virginia, and Georgia are also in the top 6.

Your assumption is not necessarily correct. Servicemen and women are allowed by the several states to maintain a home address, often representing the place they lived when entering the military. Frequently, however, military folk who embark on service careers eventually pick Texas or Florida,if they have tours there., These are states without income taxes.

[PackMan97]

He's already kinda walked it back. Said he would comply with any legitimate request. Will be some interesting jousting in the next few weeks. But it's worth trying "If the president (or Bolton, Mulvaney, etc.) won't comply, why should I?". I may even try it with my next subpoena.

I would think it plays better, "No one is above the law. I am not, the President is not. This is why it's important I testify and we get Trump out of office".

[budwom]

He's already kinda walked it back. Said he would comply with any legitimate request. Will be some interesting jousting in the next few weeks. But it's worth trying "If the president (or Bolton, Mulvaney, etc.) won't comply, why should I?". I may even try it with my next subpoena.

Biden's comment was reviewed in the booth and it was ruled he has to comply, overturning the ruling on the field.