2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

[CrazyNotCrazie]

My feelings about this whole election process (and a lot of other things):

download.jpg

[Deslok]

5F16DE18-D770-4917-8F7B-437ECEE21EF0.jpg5F16DE18-D770-4917-8F7B-437ECEE21EF0.jpg and I’m living in Florida too!

[bedeviled]

if you google "festouche" you get a bad or undesirable situation.

Thanks for the info/clue. With that, I found some further interesting information which I posted in the 'Words you dislike? Or really like?' thread.

[bedeviled]

Here's a fun bipartisan political meme, but it may be too complex for the boomers (it's a double 'distracted boyfriend' plus 'Leeroy Jenkins' (video, Family Guy parody, cinematic parody)) :
Leeroy Jenkins.jpg

[PackMan97]

Bloomberg has purchased $31 million in ads for an ad blitz as he enters the 2020 race.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/mike...-2020-bid.html

[JasonEvans]

Bloomberg has purchased $31 million in ads for an ad blitz as he enters the 2020 race.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/mike...-2020-bid.html

That's "lift up the cushions on the couch and see if you find any change in there" money to billionaire Bloomberg. He makes Tom Steyer and Donald Trump look like paupers.

[Nick]

The Nation seems glum about its team's 2020 prospects in the wake of the Ukraine hearings. In that link is this bit I hadn't seen yet, in bold:

And for all of the speculation about a Trump presidency in peril and Republicans jumping ship, some signs point in a different direction. “As a political matter, the longer this goes, it is a real opportunity for Republicans to paint Democrats as unconcerned about the issues voters care more about,” a Republican strategist told The New York Times. Eyeing that chance, Republicans are discussing a strategy that would prolong a Senate impeachment trial as long as possible so as to overshadow the Democratic primary—“potentially keeping six contenders in Washington until the eve of the Iowa caucuses or longer,” The Washington Post notes.

[JasonEvans]

Bloomberg has officially entered the race. He is not going to even bother in the early states and instead blanket the Super Tuesday states with ads in the hope of making some waves there.

To kick start his campaign, Bloomberg has placed at least $37 million worth of television advertising over the next two weeks, according to data from Kantar Media/CMAG.

Bloomberg's massive buy -- 60 second spots across some 100 markets -- will begin next week, representing more than the entire Democratic field has spent on TV advertising in the race so far, excluding businessman Tom Steyer, who will have aired nearly $63 million of TV ads by the end of Bloomberg's initial bookings.

The fact that he is self-financing means he probably will never get to the donor thresholds necessary to make any Democratic debate, even if he starts polling well (which he probably won't). Nate Silver seems to think his strategy is to cause a brokered convention where he becomes a compromise choice. So, I guess we call him the chaos candidate.

-Jason "someone is going to have to explain to me how Bloomberg, who is far to the right of most of the party, would be a compromise candidate at a brokered convention" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

-Jason "someone is going to have to explain to me how Bloomberg, who is far to the right of most of the party, would be a compromise candidate at a brokered convention" Evans

Because nothing appeals to Middle America like a NYC billionaire?

That’s all I got.

[Nick]

I don't know how new this is but RCP has a betting odds average tracker:

Screenshot 2019-11-24 at 1.52.55 PM.jpg

According to bettors, anyway, Warren has lost ground as of late to Sanders and Buttigieg.

[bundabergdevil]

Because nothing appeals to Middle America like a NYC billionaire?

That’s all I got.

A history of flip-flopping - perhaps, opportunist - political affiliation also helps.

[OldPhiKap]

A history of flip-flopping - perhaps, opportunist - political affiliation also helps.

He could personally fund the Springfield Monorail!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

He is pro choice and pro gay rights. And while he is tarred with the stop and frisk brush, he was not a friend to law enforcement during his tenure. So he is not as that far to the right.

And two of the other really big issues for him are guns and climate - he has spent a fortune on these and aligns with the more left position on them. But he is more conservative fiscally than the average Democrat (if there is such a thing). Stop and frisk was complicated. It gets a lot of bad PR, and he just fell on the sword on it. The opposition to it was much more vocal. But there were plenty of traditional NY Democrats who generally supported it, likely just wishing it had been done slightly differently. And there were even people from the more impacted communities that supported it.

[tbyers11]

He could personally fund the Springfield Monorail!

But Main Street's still all cracked and broken!

Which candidate(s) most resembles Lyle Langley could be an interesting think piece.

[OldPhiKap]

As folks start to travel and gather for the holidays, here's wishing everyone a political fight-free Thanksgiving with your family.

(I'm putting off the inevitable brawl until Christmas, so easy for me to say!)

[Chicago 1995]

-Jason "someone is going to have to explain to me how Bloomberg, who is far to the right of most of the party, would be a compromise candidate at a brokered convention" Evans

There's no chance he can win the nomination, he's likely to siphon support (assuming he gets any traction at all) from other moderate Democrats like Biden that he would otherwise presumably support.

My guess is he's running to try to make sure that Warren's tax plan on billionaires doesn't make it through the convention. Whether that means torpedoing Warren or simply using his leverage to get her to compromise, that's his end game.

[Chicago 1995]

I don't know how new this is but RCP has a betting odds average tracker:

Screenshot 2019-11-24 at 1.52.55 PM.jpg

According to bettors, anyway, Warren has lost ground as of late to Sanders and Buttigieg.

That generally tracks polling no? Pete's generally had the momentum and Warren's been kind of ignored after having a good bit of momentum herself. Seems like she'd lose ground to Pete and normalize as to Bernie.

[OldPhiKap]

Regardless of the merits or demerits of Warren's plan substantively, the idea of removing private health insurance as an option polls dismally. Add the program cost disclosure and explanation (which she did not handle well IMO) and it is no surprise that Warren has deflated a bit.

Having said that, she supposedly has one of the best ground games going in the early states and her supporters are very enthusiastic about her. She is also a very smart and articulate advocate. Absent an absolute shellacking on Super Tuesday, I think she is one of the last two standing. (Okay, three, because Bernie will never drop out even if/when he is mathematically eliminated -- at least if history is any guide).

[JasonEvans]

Having said that, she supposedly has one of the best ground games going in the early states and her supporters are very enthusiastic about her. She is also a very smart and articulate advocate. Absent an absolute shellacking on Super Tuesday, I think she is one of the last two standing. (Okay, three, because Bernie will never drop out even if/when he is mathematically eliminated -- at least if history is any guide).

I am inclined to agree that Warren and one of the moderates (Biden, Buttigieg, or maybe Klobuchar or someone else who pops at the last minute) will be the last two standing.

It is a long way out but the big question to me is how many tickets are there out of Iowa? Put another way, how low can each candidate finish in Iowa and still be viable? I feel like whoever finishes 4th or lower will be really damaged. The 4th place person would almost have to finish no worse than 2nd in New Hampshire to remain a real option. I think that if you are top 3 in Iowa and NH then you will likely be seen as a contender on Super Tuesday. I suspect 4th in either state could be the beginning of the end for that candidate.

-Jason "Biden, who has the national name rec and the SC black vote, might be able to withstand a 4th place finish but Warren and Buttigieg almost certainly cannot... Bernie gonna Bernie and I'm not sure he will ever go below the low-teens or above the low-20s" Evans