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  1. #4941
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Good news for Trump.

    A new poll shows support for the impeachment of President Trump has declined since public hearings have started. The Emerson poll released Thursday found support for impeachment has dropped from 48% to 43% since October, while opposition to impeachment has risen from 44% to 45%.

    Independents are key in the shift, with 49% opposing impeachment and only 34% supporting impeachment. In October, 48% of independents supported impeachment and 39% opposed.

    The poll also showed Trump's approval rating rising to a net positive. Forty-eight percent approved of the president while 47% disapproved. His approval rating was only 43% a month ago.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...b1N?li=BBnb7Kz
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #4942
    When will the D nominee be almost certain?

  3. #4943
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    When will the D nominee be almost certain?
    Not until Super Tuesday at the earliest, I think.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  4. #4944
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Emerson is a good pollster, 538 gives them an A- rating, but it really looks like that poll is a outlier. It has Trump approval ahead of disapproval which is waaay out of line with pretty much every other approval poll out there. I mean, even GOP-friendly Rasmussen has Trump underwater on approval at 46-53 (-7). An ARG poll also released yesterday and also polling 1000+ people from Nov 17-20 (ARG gets a solid B rating from 538) puts Trump's approval at a dismal 61-36 (-25).

    I strongly suspect Trump is not 25-points underwater on approval and I strongly suspect he is not +1 either. The 538 average of dozens of approval polls has him at 41.8-53.6 (-12) which seems a lot more useful than making a big deal out of +1 or -25. We would need to see more polls showing the same thing to treat either of those polls as anything other than an outlier.

    -Jason "Emerson also did one-on-one matchups with all the Dem contenders that found Trump beating Biden in the popular vote... which is also out of line with anything else we have seen" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  5. #4945
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Not until Super Tuesday at the earliest, I think.
    How long after then until the votes are certified? Asked differently, are there any critical states expected to be extremely close causing substantial final decision lags?

  6. #4946
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    How long after then until the votes are certified? Asked differently, are there any critical states expected to be extremely close causing substantial final decision lags?
    If I had any clue as to the answer to your question I would be in Vegas right now making billions. No one has any clue as to the timing of the nomination and we won't have any clue until the field is narrowed down. Super Tuesday will likely have a big impact on things. With this many candidates it is impossible to tell which states will be close. The specifics of the delegate allocations, particularly for some of the earlier states which will have larger fields, could be interesting. This Ballotopedia article I found on Google has some interesting insights on the process. It looks like about 1/3 of the delegates are chosen by Super Tuesday and 2/3 by the end of March.

    https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020

  7. #4947
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    yeah, who knows. But I feel compelled to point out the irony that this whole impeachment fistouche centers on Trump looking to get dirt on a guy who may well not even be the nominee, whose prospects seem to be foundering.

  8. #4948
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    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    When will the D nominee be almost certain?
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Not until Super Tuesday at the earliest, I think.
    Super Tuesday will narrow it down to three or so, but I doubt it is decisive unless they are all winner-take-all states (I thought the Dems award proportional delegates although I could be wrong about that).
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  9. #4949
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    this whole impeachment fistouche centers on Trump looking to get dirt on a guy who may well not even be the nominee, whose prospects seem to be foundering.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #4950
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    yeah, who knows. But I feel compelled to point out the irony that this whole impeachment fistouche centers on Trump looking to get dirt on a guy who may well not even be the nominee, whose prospects seem to be foundering.
    I'm stumped. I went and Googled "Fistouche", giddy about such a cool sounding word and wondering the meaning.
    No luck. BUT...if you look up "fistouche definition", the first return is to DBR, and another thread that you used it in. That's pretty cool. ;p
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  11. #4951
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    "Son -- fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life."

    One of my favorite funny lines ever.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  12. #4952
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    If I had any clue as to the answer to your question I would be in Vegas right now making billions. No one has any clue as to the timing of the nomination and we won't have any clue until the field is narrowed down. Super Tuesday will likely have a big impact on things. With this many candidates it is impossible to tell which states will be close.
    Dalio must think the answer to my question is March, given his approximately $1.5 billion in March puts.

  13. #4953
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I'm stumped. I went and Googled "Fistouche", giddy about such a cool sounding word and wondering the meaning.
    No luck. BUT...if you look up "fistouche definition", the first return is to DBR, and another thread that you used it in. That's pretty cool. ;p
    My old employer had hundreds of thousands of employees, and its own culture (truly)...part of that culture was a particular vocabulary...fistouche was a commonly used word, though perhaps it's spelled wrong or doesn't even exist elsewhere.
    But when you described a major dustup or mess, everyone knew it was a fistouche.
    Kind of like the Sopranos vocabulary, perhaps...there is no gobbagool for example (but there is capicola)...same for gumar...

  14. #4954
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    Dalio must think the answer to my question is March, given his approximately $1.5 billion in March puts.
    So why did you ask the question? Or if you thought you had a good driver towards the answer to your question, why didn't you include it with your original question?

    For the benefit of the rest of the readers of this thread, here is an article describing what Jeffrey has mentioned:

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-11-1028711471

    And for those who are less financially saavy, a put essentially a bet that a stock or stock index will decline. Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, arguably the world's largest hedge fund.

  15. #4955
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    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Super Tuesday will narrow it down to three or so, but I doubt it is decisive unless they are all winner-take-all states (I thought the Dems award proportional delegates although I could be wrong about that).
    Almost certain a candidate needs to get 15% to get any delegates. Assume the delegates are proportional for those over 15% but not sure (for instance, maybe the winner gets some extra for winning).

  16. #4956
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    So why did you ask the question? Or if you thought you had a good driver towards the answer to your question, why didn't you include it with your original question?.
    I ask similar questions to non-financial people all the time to get a different perspective on the matter. For example, my wife has different, and sometimes better, insight on retail than many retail analysts (no disrespect intended, since you might be an analyst).

    Dalio is human and sometimes makes bad wagers. He also denied this wager has anything to do with the D nomination decision. I don’t believe that!

  17. #4957
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Super Tuesday will narrow it down to three or so, but I doubt it is decisive unless they are all winner-take-all states (I thought the Dems award proportional delegates although I could be wrong about that).
    There are no-winner-take-all states in the Democratic race. All delegates are awarded proportionally to any candidate who gets more than 15% in a district or state-wide. As a result, it is entirely possible that even if there is a clear front-runner, that person may not get enough delegates to win on the first ballot if we see 3 or more candidates still in the running through the end of March.

    Take this scenario-- Buttigieg is consistently winning 40% of the vote, Warren is getting 25%, and Sanders and Klobuchar/Biden are each getting about 15% through the end of March. If Sanders or someone else decided to stick around through the convention and Buttigieg (or whoever is leading) is winning states 60-40 or 70-30, it is almost certain the front-runner won't have enough delegates to win on the first ballot. It could be a mess**

    -Jason "**- could be, but I suspect it won't be as there would be a clear choice made by the voters and I am all but certain the convention would make that person the nominee on the second ballot" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #4958
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    There are no-winner-take-all states in the Democratic race. All delegates are awarded proportionally to any candidate who gets more than 15% in a district or state-wide. As a result, it is entirely possible that even if there is a clear front-runner, that person may not get enough delegates to win on the first ballot if we see 3 or more candidates still in the running through the end of March.

    Take this scenario-- Buttigieg is consistently winning 40% of the vote, Warren is getting 25%, and Sanders and Klobuchar/Biden are each getting about 15% through the end of March. If Sanders or someone else decided to stick around through the convention and Buttigieg (or whoever is leading) is winning states 60-40 or 70-30, it is almost certain the front-runner won't have enough delegates to win on the first ballot. It could be a mess**

    -Jason "**- could be, but I suspect it won't be as there would be a clear choice made by the voters and I am all but certain the convention would make that person the nominee on the second ballot" Evans
    If only they had some delegates who were party institutionalists and elected officials — some sort of “super delegate” pool — to help avoid such chaos.

    {ducks}
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  19. #4959
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    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    If only they had some delegates who were party institutionalists and elected officials — some sort of “super delegate” pool — to help avoid such chaos.

    {ducks}
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #4960
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

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