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  1. #4901
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'm not sure anything can move the needle for most supporters of the Prez, but I sure was wondering how far Sondland would go in his testimony...I suspect his lawyers made it clear that going open kimono might be the path of least peril.
    I do take Nate seriously, but not sure I believe this take...I guess we'll see.
    I guess my take is that as long as GOP legislators are vulnerable to primary challenges backed by the President, they are unlikely to change, but we'll see (and yes, not all Senators are exposed to primaries this year, of course).
    With Stone and Cohen both in jail for lying to Congress, Sondland's best legal approach is to tell the truth (whatever that may be) or else plead the Fifth.

    I will be curious to see if Trump rage tweets during the testimony. He is flying to Austin this morning and therefore has a lot of tv-watching time on the plane until early/mid afternoon.

  2. #4902
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'm not sure anything can move the needle for most supporters of the Prez, but I sure was wondering how far Sondland would go in his testimony...I suspect his lawyers made it clear that going open kimono might be the path of least peril.
    I do take Nate seriously, but not sure I believe this take...I guess we'll see.
    To be clear, Nate was not saying those 8-10% would abandon Trump. He was saying that was the potential downside in his opinion. Obviously, things would have to go really, really badly for Trump for all those folks to abandon him.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  3. #4903
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Dem debate tonight — will it be overshadowed by Sondland rehashes or whatever great fare will be on ACCN?

    Curious what the ratings will be.
    I doubt the debates will be watched much until they get the podiums down to a useful number. I know I won't be watching; it's just as easy to read the recaps and see the soundbites after the fact. When they finally get down to five or less candidates, I'll tune in.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  4. #4904
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    To be clear, Nate was not saying those 8-10% would abandon Trump. He was saying that was the potential downside in his opinion. Obviously, things would have to go really, really badly for Trump for all those folks to abandon him.
    Yup, I understand...can't wait to see polling data after Sondland's testimony, which seems to be pretty explicit...under the circumstances, I'd say 5% would be a lot...

  5. #4905
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    But at the same time, for all of the divisiveness among Democrats about healthcare and Trump's campaigning in 2016 against Obamacare, it has been a big non-issue during his presidency.
    It was a massive issue in 2017. The ACA was saved by a single vote cast by a now-late glioblastoma patient, frequently identified as an enemy by the President.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  6. #4906
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    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    It was a massive issue in 2017. The ACA was saved by a single vote cast by a now-late glioblastoma patient, frequently identified as an enemy by the President.
    Yup, and I think it will be a huge issue in 2020. The cost of health care, and how it is delivered, impacts every family. This may be less of an issue with the young and bullet-proof voter (ah, I remember those days) but it doesn't take too much aging or too many loved ones to see the real pocketbook and life-impacting touch of the issue.

  7. #4907
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'm not sure anything can move the needle for most supporters of the Prez, but I sure was wondering how far Sondland would go in his testimony...I suspect his lawyers made it clear that going open kimono might be the path of least peril.
    I do take Nate seriously, but not sure I believe this take...I guess we'll see.
    I guess my take is that as long as GOP legislators are vulnerable to primary challenges backed by the President, they are unlikely to change, but we'll see (and yes, not all Senators are exposed to primaries this year, of course).
    Gee budwom, thanks for making me throw up in my mouth.

  8. #4908
    Listening live right now it sounds like Sondland's testimony is going to open the door for plausible deniability by Trump. In other words, even though everyone could see by action and words that Trump and Giuliani absolutely wanted/pushed for Ukraine to investigate Biden, no one is going to say they heard the words come out of Trump's mouth, "I want... concerning Ukraine."

    This is why I stated upthread that unless there's a smoking gun audio/video that explicitly has Trump saying something definitive about Ukraine and Biden it's going to come down to he said/she said. And that will not move the needle. It will take hearing Trump himself say something directly to get his supporters to even consider turning.

  9. #4909
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Yup, and I think it will be a huge issue in 2020. The cost of health care, and how it is delivered, impacts every family. This may be less of an issue with the young and bullet-proof voter (ah, I remember those days) but it doesn't take too much aging or too many loved ones to see the real pocketbook and life-impacting touch of the issue.
    Strongly agree. I also think it will be a huge issue in 2024. Improving health care may be the most complex issue, in front of politicians, and the industry may own the most politicians.

  10. #4910
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Gee budwom, thanks for making me throw up in my mouth.
    I would prefer to be wrong, but the GOP wall around Trump is thus far holding, few want to face his wrath on the campaign trail. I can see the President's favorability ratings suffer, but not his hold on the Senate, barring something unforeseen...

  11. #4911
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I would prefer to be wrong, but the GOP wall around Trump is thus far holding, few want to face his wrath on the campaign trail. I can see the President's favorability ratings suffer, but not his hold on the Senate, barring something unforeseen...
    I meant the "open kimono" comment. Bad visual. Bald old white guy...

  12. #4912
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    Dec 2014
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    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    It will take hearing Trump himself say something directly to get his supporters to even consider turning.
    In today's atmosphere, even that won't do it. Anything is justifiable. He won't go under 35%.

  13. #4913
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I would prefer to be wrong, but the GOP wall around Trump is thus far holding, few want to face his wrath on the campaign trail. I can see the President's favorability ratings suffer, but not his hold on the Senate, barring something unforeseen...
    I tend to agree with you, but do wonder if the real Dem strategy is now more oriented toward making Trump and the GOP more broadly look as bad as possible heading into the 2020 elections. I've thought from the start that Dems were overplaying their hand if they were truly seeking an ultimate impeachment and removal from office. And nothing yet has changed that view. But Trump's biggest allies in the House and right-wing media may be overplaying theirs even more by insisting on his total innocence, as I do think that could have meaningful repercussions looking at the total electoral map for the coming cycle.

  14. #4914
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    I tend to agree with you, but do wonder if the real Dem strategy is now more oriented toward making Trump and the GOP more broadly look as bad as possible heading into the 2020 elections. I've thought from the start that Dems were overplaying their hand if they were truly seeking an ultimate impeachment and removal from office. And nothing yet has changed that view. But Trump's biggest allies in the House and right-wing media may be overplaying theirs even more by insisting on his total innocence, as I do think that could have meaningful repercussions looking at the total electoral map for the coming cycle.
    I agree, chances of conviction in the Senate have always been, and continue to be, minimal...I guess they see value in both creating bad pub for Trump, plus placating their own supporters who felt the mounting number of issues required impeachment.

  15. #4915
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I agree, chances of conviction in the Senate have always been, and continue to be, minimal...I guess they see value in both creating bad pub for Trump, plus placating their own supporters who felt the mounting number of issues required impeachment.
    Plus, an impeachment vote in the senate puts real pressure on GOP senators in states like Colorado, Maine, NC, Ga, Iowa, and Arizona who are facing tough re-election campaigns.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #4916
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Plus, an impeachment vote in the senate puts real pressure on GOP senators in states like Colorado, Maine, NC, Ga, Iowa, and Arizona who are facing tough re-election campaigns.
    gotta admit (being from her general region) that I always enjoy a Susan Collins dither...she's being set up for a major dither here, and she's running out of dither room in Maine.

  17. #4917
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    In today's atmosphere, even that won't do it. Anything is justifiable. He won't go under 35%.
    Agreed. I didn’t mean to imply all, or even the majority, of POTUS’s supporters would turn. I should have added the word “some” to my initial sentence.

  18. #4918
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Just to point out that some of us don't follow every stray subject, I did not immediately post a weekend news report discussing the identity of "Anonymous." One candidate, seriously suggested, was Andrew Giuliani, a press assistant at the White House. Surely you all remember Andrew -- co-reciting the oath at his Dad's first inauguration as mayor of NYC; receiving a golf scholarship to Duke with (I thought) scant credentials; getting removed from the team as a junior (I believe) as detrimental to the team and not playing well enough to carry that baggage; suing Duke for ruining his PGA prospects (discussed differently on Wiki, but ...); having his case dismissed by the courts; graduating from Duke. He's been in the White House since March 2017and is said to be a frequent golf partner of El Presidente.

    Remember -- I am not starting a side conversation.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  19. #4919
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    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Happy 77th Birthday today, Joe Biden.

  20. #4920
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Wayne Messam has suspended his bid for President. I don't recall him ever registering higher than 1% in any poll so he won't exactly be missed. I am unsure where his dozens of supporters will now look... perhaps Joe Sestack?
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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