2020 Presidential Election

[cato]

There are some polling and strategist folks I know (and listen to) who say Democrats would be smarter to focus on SW states with large Hispanic populations (Texas and AZ especially) and Southern states with large black populations (Ga and NC, which are not a rural as Bama, Miss, and Lou) as well as Florida (which has both) versus being obsessed with winning back the Rust belt (MI, WI, PA) that has a lot of less educated white voters who seem to really like Trump. Not to say the Dems should give up on MI, WI, PA, but a smart strategy would be to put serious resources into some of these S/SW states because the polls look like those states really could flip.

-Jason "a Dem who wins AZ and FL does not even need MI, WI, or PA to get to 270 electoral votes" Evans

And a Dem who wins Texas . . .

[JasonEvans]

Deval Patrick, the former Massachusetts governor, is telling friends that he will get into the Democratic race with an announcement on Twitter tomorrow (Thursday).

He's very close with Obama and here is a Politico article on how his candidacy could be problematic for his fellow Mass Democrat, Elizabeth Warren.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Deval Patrick, the former Massachusetts governor, is telling friends that he will get into the Democratic race with an announcement on Twitter tomorrow (Thursday).

He's very close with Obama and here is a Politico article on how his candidacy could be problematic for his fellow Mass Democrat, Elizabeth Warren.

When I read yesterday that he was getting in, my first thought was "who?"
That's still my thought, and it will be that of the majority of voters across America. Very odd timing and I will be super surprised if he has much traction at this stage of the game.

[dudog84]

Deval Patrick, the former Massachusetts governor, is telling friends that he will get into the Democratic race with an announcement on Twitter tomorrow (Thursday).

He's very close with Obama and here is a Politico article on how his candidacy could be problematic for his fellow Mass Democrat, Elizabeth Warren.

Are you saying Obama is putting his thumb on the scale?

[Devilwin]

People, keep on listening to those polls..

[dudog84]

People, keep on listening to those polls..

Why not? The politicians do (not the best endorsement, I know). The Senate will not convict Trump if the polls for removal stay at 48-51%. But if these public hearings move the need up to 60%, there's a good chance action will be taken.

[ncexnyc]

So far today's testimony reminds me of these lyrics from the past.

"Heard it from a friend who
Heard it from a friend who
Heard it from another you been messin' around"

"But I know the neighborhood
And talk is cheap when the story is good
And the tales grow taller on down the line"

[CrazyNotCrazie]

So far today's testimony reminds me of these lyrics from the past.

"Heard it from a friend who
Heard it from a friend who
Heard it from another you been messin' around"

"But I know the neighborhood
And talk is cheap when the story is good
And the tales grow taller on down the line"

Yup - people will hear exactly what they want to hear. Which is what is wrong with America today (not pointing fingers at you, this applies to everyone). There is a complete lack of trust between the two sides. If side A said the sun rises in the east, side B would find a way to dispute it. I am still trying to figure out what our end game is going to be. Trump's goal was to shake things up and he has gone far beyond what even he likely expected in that regard. Though I struggle to figure out if this is 100% attributable to him or if he were to move to a deserted island and never be heard from again (highly unlikely) or drop dead tomorrow, would there at least be some return to the old normal or is this now a permanent state of affairs?

[Chicago 1995]

Yup - people will hear exactly what they want to hear. Which is what is wrong with America today (not pointing fingers at you, this applies to everyone). There is a complete lack of trust between the two sides. If side A said the sun rises in the east, side B would find a way to dispute it. I am still trying to figure out what our end game is going to be. Trump's goal was to shake things up and he has gone far beyond what even he likely expected in that regard. Though I struggle to figure out if this is 100% attributable to him or if he were to move to a deserted island and never be heard from again (highly unlikely) or drop dead tomorrow, would there at least be some return to the old normal or is this now a permanent state of affairs?

Setting aside a number of points/objections I might raise here that would certainly get me sanctioned in this thread, I'd suggest that we were pretty far down this path of polarization before Trump decided to run for President. I don't think him being spirited away to another dimension will change much.

That's a critical line of demarcation within the Democratic flank, I'd note. Uncle Joe and Mayor Pete seem inclined to think Trump is the problem, not the symptom, and that defeating him will cure many of the problems created by this polarization. Warren and Bernie seem more sure that the problem isn't Trump, but much broader. I'd note that both Bloomberg and Patrick (if he joins in) would likely fall in the Biden/Mayor Pete camp. I'm not sure what that means, but I doubt Bloomberg or Patrick will move the needle with the Warren/Bernie core of voters.

[PackMan97]

Yup - people will hear exactly what they want to hear. Which is what is wrong with America today (not pointing fingers at you, this applies to everyone). There is a complete lack of trust between the two sides. If side A said the sun rises in the east, side B would find a way to dispute it.

I don't think the issue is even a lack of trust, but a lack of understanding or even a desire to understand.

[dudog84]

I don't think the issue is even a lack of trust, but a lack of understanding or even a desire to understand.

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

- Upton Sinclair

[Nick]

So far today's testimony reminds me of these lyrics from the past.

"Heard it from a friend who
Heard it from a friend who
Heard it from another you been messin' around"

"But I know the neighborhood
And talk is cheap when the story is good
And the tales grow taller on down the line"

Yep... I read your post right after watching this video a friend sent me, and I'm thinking this scandal isn't going to move the election needle appreciably on account of the fact it's too convoluted. It's a lot easier to get an idea into the public consciousness when you can reduce it to a soundbite.

[OldPhiKap]

Yep... I read your post right after watching this video a friend sent me, and I'm thinking this scandal isn't going to move the election needle appreciably on account of the fact it's too convoluted. It's a lot easier to get an idea into the public consciousness when you can reduce it to a soundbite.

To be fair — FoxNews has absolutely no interest in making it understandable. They just don’t.

Read of that what you will.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

To be fair — FoxNews has absolutely no interest in making it understandable. They just don’t.

Read of that what you will.

Eschew obfuscation.

[OldPhiKap]

Eschew obfuscation.

Yup.

Every other network will have a simple narrative: two long-time foreign service employees described Trump’s efforts to withhold needed military aide from a country fighting Russia, in order to smear Joe Biden and his son.

This is really simple. And Mulvaney all but admitted it.

Hell, Trump essentially admitted it. He just thinks it’s no big deal.

[Nick]

Yup.

Every other network will have a simple narrative: two long-time foreign service employees described Trump’s efforts to withhold needed military aide from a country fighting Russia, in order to smear Joe Biden and his son.

Imagine the above in a campaign commercial, and then try to imagine somebody changing their mind based on it.

[OldPhiKap]

Imagine the above in a campaign commercial, and then try to imagine somebody changing their mind based on it.

Independents? Sure. I can see them being swayed by that simple narrative. (If you mean the video, I doubt it is persuasive beyond those already convinced that there is nothing here to see. It seems to be transparent misdirection IMO — who is really going to watch that besides the converted?)

Dems and Reps? Most made up their mind on Trump three years ago.

[OldPhiKap]

1. Castro is officially out of next week’s debate, failing to qualify.

2. DC Circuit full panel upholds ruling (8-3) that Trump’s accountants have to release tax returns to House Dems. On to the Supremes if they choose to take the expected appeal. (if they do, their opinion likely will be released within 4-8 months before the election and will clearly have political ramifications).

[CrazyNotCrazie]

1. Castro is officially out of next week’s debate, failing to qualify.

2. DC Circuit full panel upholds ruling (8-3) that Trump’s accountants have to release tax returns to House Dems. On to the Supremes if they choose to take the expected appeal. (if they do, their opinion likely will be released within 4-8 months before the election and will clearly have political ramifications).

If somehow Trump's taxes get released, I am betting that it will be a big nothing. Either there will be nothing incriminating, or there will be something that Trump can explain in such a way that his base thinks it is nothing and no one is willing to prosecute him. And the divide will just be furthered.

[OldPhiKap]

If somehow Trump's taxes get released, I am betting that it will be a big nothing. Either there will be nothing incriminating, or there will be something that Trump can explain in such a way that his base thinks it is nothing and no one is willing to prosecute him. And the divide will just be furthered.

I think it is the opposite, although agree there is some 35% or so that will never abandon him.