2020 Presidential Election

[dudog84]

O.....M.......G.....

Headline: Hillary Clinton: 'I'm under enormous pressure' to run in 2020

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...Sb4?li=BBnb7Kz

Actual quote (which doesn't contradict the headline): "I will certainly tell you, I'm under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it"

[budwom]

O....M....G....

Headline: Hillary Clinton: 'I'm under enormous pressure' to run in 2020

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...Sb4?li=BBnb7Kz

Actual quote (which doesn't contradict the headline): "I will certainly tell you, I'm under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it"

Bill wants her out of the house.

[OldPhiKap]

O...M...G...

Headline: Hillary Clinton: 'I'm under enormous pressure' to run in 2020

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...Sb4?li=BBnb7Kz

Actual quote (which doesn't contradict the headline): "I will certainly tell you, I'm under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it"

I keep saying this is a vampire candidacy, and people keep telling me I’m paranoid . . . .

All these new folks jumping in, or talking about it, shows how weak the Dem field appears. Warren and Bernie may be seen as too far left for a general election. Joe’s fastball has lost its zip over time (and let’s be frank, he has always been a shaky candidate in the past). The fourth most popular choice is a gay thirty-something mayor from a secondary market city whose electability (unfortunately IMO) is clearly debatable.*

Tell me who the Trump slayer in that group is?

*I shouldn’t have to say this at this point but will anyway — I do not find his age as disqualifying, although I understand the argument that he is too young the same way I understand the argument that the other three (all septuagenarians) are too old. I do not find his orientation as disqualifying either but recognize that some segment of the nation does whether one likes that fact or not.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Actual quote (which doesn't contradict the headline): "I will certainly tell you, I'm under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it"

Hmmm, that sounds familiar. Hillary's been paying attention to what works!

[DU82]

Some rumbling that Trump might toss Pence overboard and bring on Nikki Haley for 2020. Pretty sure that hasn't happened since FDR (and I do not know of the circumstances for his multiple VPs).

I don't see it happening, but wonder what others think.

The arguments I've heard for:
- her recent schmoozing book tour, some think she's angling for it
- she would help Trump with women
- loyalty isn't known to be Trump's strong suit, he's transactional
- she's a darling of the standard conservatives

Reasons I think it won't happen:
- could backfire, isn't necessarily a good look to switch
- at first I thought it would hurt him with evangelicals, but they are solid Trump
- Pence knows a lot...but would probably keep his mouth shut

So now I'm not so sure.

Technically, Nelson Rockefeller was dropped as VP for the 1976 election for Bob Dole, although he wasn’t an elected VP.

If Haley is interested in the presidency, I think she might be better off waiting until 2024. If Trump wins, she rides the GOP wave, and is likely more electable than Pence. If Trump loses, or is impeached, she misses the likely GOP bloodbath in 2020.

[OldPhiKap]

Technically, Nelson Rockefeller was dropped as VP for the 1976 election for Bob Dole, although he wasn’t an elected VP.

If Haley is interested in the presidency, I think she might be better off waiting until 2024. If Trump wins, she rides the GOP wave, and is likely more electable than Pence. If Trump loses, or is impeached, she misses the likely GOP bloodbath in 2020.

I agree her smart move is 2024. Though if she was VP there is no guarantee Trump would serve out a whole second term, and even if he did she would run as the Successor.

As to the potential switch, my understanding is that Jarvanka is pushing for this to help with female voters with whom Trump is polling quite poorly. I think she is one of the most broadly popular R’s out there and Trump May like the big surprise for season 2.

[camion]

Was the announcement made from the Pimento State or from Argentina? Could've been from either one.

Somewhere along the Appalachian trail I suspect. Officially.

[cato]

O....M....G....

Headline: Hillary Clinton: 'I'm under enormous pressure' to run in 2020

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...Sb4?li=BBnb7Kz

Actual quote (which doesn't contradict the headline): "I will certainly tell you, I'm under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it"

Hold onto your butts. In the parlance of our times.

[cato]

I keep saying this is a vampire candidacy, and people keep telling me I’m paranoid . . . .

All these new folks jumping in, or talking about it, shows how weak the Dem field appears. Warren and Bernie may be seen as too far left for a general election. Joe’s fastball has lost its zip over time (and let’s be frank, he has always been a shaky candidate in the past). The fourth most popular choice is a gay thirty-something mayor from a secondary market city whose electability (unfortunately IMO) is clearly debatable.*

Tell me who the Trump slayer in that group is?

*I shouldn’t have to say this at this point but will anyway — I do not find his age as disqualifying, although I understand the argument that he is too young the same way I understand the argument that the other three (all septuagenarians) are too old. I do not find his orientation as disqualifying either but recognize that some segment of the nation does whether one likes that fact or not.

Well, any one of them could be the Trump Slayer, assuming of course that Trump is on the ballot. I am not underestimating Trump here — as far as I am concerned, if he is president going into the election he is the favorite. But unless something drastic changes, the election will be decided by turnout, and I think that it impossible to sit here today and predict who is going to get out the votes on the D side.

I am skeptical of Clinton or Bloomberg being able to get enough votes to win the D nomination.

[OldPhiKap]

I am skeptical of Clinton or Bloomberg being able to get enough votes to win the D nomination.

Same here, though I wonder whether they siphon money and support from other moderates. If I was Bernie or Warren I would love both to jump in. If I was Biden/Pete/Klobuchar I would hate someone clogging my lane. If I was anyone else, you’re that much closer to running out of money and dropping out.

[PSurprise]

I'm just wondering...do politicians and the like just surround themselves with people who just say yes to them all the time? It's like Sanford actually thinking of running?!? I mean, really?!? Who told him that would be a good idea? It's the same thing with Hillary. Is there not anyone hanging out with Hillary telling her, "mehhhhh, maybe you should just sit this one out."

[PackMan97]

I'm just wondering...do politicians and the like just surround themselves with people who just say yes to them all the time? It's like Sanford actually thinking of running?!? I mean, really?!? Who told him that would be a good idea? It's the same thing with Hillary. Is there not anyone hanging out with Hillary telling her, "mehhhhh, maybe you should just sit this one out."

Sanford was never in it to win it. He was in it to try and bring attention to the debt and deficit which are issues that he feels are important, but being ignored. Sadly it seems that no one on the right cares about them any longer.

[OldPhiKap]

Sanford was never in it to win it. He was in it to try and bring attention to the debt and deficit which are issues that he feels are important, but being ignored. Sadly it seems that no one on the right cares about them any longer.

Don’t worry. It will be vitally important as soon as a Democrat gets in the White House.

[bundabergdevil]

Hold onto your butts. In the parlance of our times.

This is a very charged question in certain circles but I'm going to ask it and let chips fall where they may --- When Sam Jackson says "hold onto your butts" right before his character flips the main breaker in Jurassic Park, does he mean cigarette butts or rear end butts?

[OldPhiKap]

John Cleese tweet:

I see Hilary Clinton says people are pressuring her to run for President

The trouble is, they're all Republicans

[dudog84]

I know there are some Georgians on the thread, but considering Georgia's condition of becoming more purple this poll by the University of Georgia should be of interest to most. Summary of head-to-head in Presidential race shows Biden beating Trump handily by 9, other candidates significantly less so.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

If you want to dig deeper (much deeper), there's lots of interesting stuff, including impeachment, medicare for all, climate change, etc. with breakdowns across sex, age, affiliation, etc.:

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.co...-crosstabs.pdf

My take: I like this poll, it's of over 1,000 registered voters in an important state. Tired of polls of a few hundred people across the entire nation. More importantly, Ds can still blow this election if they choose the wrong candidate. It's gonna be a heck of a year regardless.

[OldPhiKap]

I know there are some Georgians on the thread, but considering Georgia's condition of becoming more purple this poll by the University of Georgia should be of interest to most. Summary of head-to-head in Presidential race shows Biden beating Trump handily by 9, other candidates significantly less so.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

If you want to dig deeper (much deeper), there's lots of interesting stuff, including impeachment, medicare for all, climate change, etc. with breakdowns across sex, age, affiliation, etc.:

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.co...-crosstabs.pdf

My take: I like this poll, it's of over 1,000 registered voters in an important state. Tired of polls of a few hundred people across the entire nation. More importantly, Ds can still blow this election if they choose the wrong candidate. It's gonna be a heck of a year regardless.

I was surprised by this result, too.

[JasonEvans]

I dug down a bit into the Monmouth poll from Iowa yesterday... https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-ins...oll_IA_111219/

It is the one that found the top of the race like this:

Buttigieg 22%
Biden 19%
Warren 18%
Sanders 13%
Klobuchar 5%

As you probably know, the way the Iowa caucuses work for Democrats (not Republicans) is that if a candidate does not get the support of at least 15% of people at a caucus location, his/her supporters are asked to pick a different candidate (this referred to as “viability”). With a wide field these “second choice” voters often determine the winner in Iowa. In 2008, the last time we had a widely contested Democratic race in Iowa, the polls leading up to Iowa showed 12-15% of Democrats supporting lower-tier candidates Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Dennis Kucinich. But, on caucus day, those candidates only ended up getting 3% of the vote. That is because in most precincts their supporters were required to pick a “viable” candidate (Obama, Hillary, or John Edwards). Coming into caucus day, Obama had about a 1-2 point lead on Hillary and Edwards, but he ended up winning Iowa by 8 points because he took the vast majority of the Biden and Richardson voters who had to pick a second choice.

Anyway, back to the 2020 race… Monmouth compiled the second choice picks from the candidates who are currently in single digits (and would likely be found “not viable” if the caucus were today). Among those voters, the second choices were:

Buttigieg 28%
Sanders 16%
Warren 15%

Look, it is just one poll and the overall takeaway from it has to be “wow, Iowa is really close.” But, the other takeaway (particularly if you dig deep into the numbers) is that Pete Buttigieg seems best positioned of anyone to win in Iowa.

-Jason "Only 82 days until the Iowa Caucuses!!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I know there are some Georgians on the thread, but considering Georgia's condition of becoming more purple this poll by the University of Georgia should be of interest to most. Summary of head-to-head in Presidential race shows Biden beating Trump handily by 9, other candidates significantly less so.

There are some polling and strategist folks I know (and listen to) who say Democrats would be smarter to focus on SW states with large Hispanic populations (Texas and AZ especially) and Southern states with large black populations (Ga and NC, which are not a rural as Bama, Miss, and Lou) as well as Florida (which has both) versus being obsessed with winning back the Rust belt (MI, WI, PA) that has a lot of less educated white voters who seem to really like Trump. Not to say the Dems should give up on MI, WI, PA, but a smart strategy would be to put serious resources into some of these S/SW states because the polls look like those states really could flip.

-Jason "a Dem who wins AZ and FL does not even need MI, WI, or PA to get to 270 electoral votes" Evans

[PackMan97]

There are some polling and strategist folks I know (and listen to) who say Democrats would be smarter to focus on SW states with large Hispanic populations (Texas and AZ especially) and Southern states with large black populations (Ga and NC, which are not a rural as Bama, Miss, and Lou) as well as Florida (which has both) versus being obsessed with winning back the Rust belt (MI, WI, PA) that has a lot of less educated white voters who seem to really like Trump. Not to say the Dems should give up on MI, WI, PA, but a smart strategy would be to put serious resources into some of these S/SW states because the polls look like those states really could flip.

-Jason "a Dem who wins AZ and FL does not even need MI, WI, or PA to get to 270 electoral votes" Evans

Not to mention, making a Republican spend resources and fight in the S/SW is going to take resources away from other battleground states.