2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

Looks like the first polls are rolling in on the general feelings of the public.

Big surprise, Democrats are thinking impeachment is the right thing to do. Republican's think it is not. Independents are split with a slight lean toward impeachment being a bad idea. As is normal, college educated and city dwellers are more pro-impeachment, non-college and rural are anti-impeachment. Those in the burbs are split right down the middle.

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/76472...chment-inquiry

This poll was done before the Whistleblower complaint was released. That document was a big deal and the poll feels somewhat dated as a result. I suspect we won't get polls that have this fully baked in until Sunday or Monday (and who knows if we will get more revelations in that time).

[PackMan97]

This poll was done before the Whistleblower complaint was released. That document was a big deal and the poll feels somewhat dated as a result. I suspect we won't get polls that have this fully baked in until Sunday or Monday (and who knows if we will get more revelations in that time).

Thanks! I didn't read the fine print. It said the poll was conducted on Thursday, Sept 26th. But now that I see the fine print it was during the day of the 25th!

[golfinesquire]

Clinton's impeachment by the US House for perjury and obstruction of justice was successful. Just want to make sure historical facts are correct.

Well, the House voted articles of impeachment. But he was acquitted in the Senate and, as noted, his approval rating rose. This failure to damage him politically is what made that episode unsuccessful.

[JasonEvans]

This failure to damage him politically is what made that episode unsuccessful.

It did damage him enough so that Gore did not want to use Bill on the campaign trail. When you consider that the 2000 election was pretty much the closest election in history, one could argue that by sidelining a relatively popular sitting President, the GOP did win.

[howardlander]

It did damage him enough so that Gore did not want to use Bill on the campaign trail. When you consider that the 2000 election was pretty much the closest election in history, one could argue that by sidelining a relatively popular sitting President, the GOP did win.

Of course sidelining Clinton was Gore's choice and in retrospect seems like a big mistake.

[bedeviled]

Anyone know where I can get odds on someone not named Biden, Sanders, or Warren to be the Democratic nominee?

Here's a partial capture of the favorites from electionbettingodds.com at 1pm 9/27/19 (link shows all top 20). These are odds from overseas betting at betfair.com.
BetOdds.jpg

[golfinesquire]

It did damage him enough so that Gore did not want to use Bill on the campaign trail. When you consider that the 2000 election was pretty much the closest election in history, one could argue that by sidelining a relatively popular sitting President, the GOP did win.

Or, given what an absolute disaster Bill was when it came to Hillary's campaign, maybe Gore knew something we didn't.

[sagegrouse]

Or, given what an absolute disaster Bill was when it came to Hillary's campaign, maybe Gore knew something we didn't.

Bill was "off his game" by 2016. It was odd -- rusty, older, less healthy -- maybe. He was rusty in the 2008 primary campaign for Hillary but seemed to get better as he went on. He was definitely on his game in campaigning for Hillary in New York in 2000, and he made the speech summarizing and framing Obama's first term that truly helped win the 2012 election.

[bundabergdevil]

Bill was "off his game" by 2016. It was odd -- rusty, older, less healthy -- maybe. He was rusty in the 2008 primary campaign for Hillary but seemed to get better as he went on. He was definitely on his game in campaigning for Hillary in New York in 2000, and he made the speech summarizing and framing Obama's first term that truly helped win the 2012 election.

Part of Bill's issue, methinks, was also that he wasn't the one running. He's not great at subverting his personal opinions and playing the surrogate role. His political instincts remain pretty sharp though. From what I recall, he really pushed his wife's campaign team to spent more time in white, working class towns and courting that voter. They, uh, did not heed that advice.

I watched an interview with Obama not too long after the 2016 election. I don't remember the exact numbers involved but he compared the number of visits he made to certain areas in Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, PA, etc to the number of visits Hillary made to the same areas. It was pretty arresting and really underscored just how little Hillary invested in that white, working class, union town sort of area. She might not have been popular in those places to begin with but you still have to go make the case...

[OldPhiKap]

Gore's lack of personality/likeability, and his three terrible debate performances, had more to do with his loss than anything IMO. He couldn't even win his home state of Tennessee, which would have made the hanging chads in Florida irrelevant.

If you can't win your home state, it's on you. Not a surrogate or booster no matter the star power. JMHO.

[bundabergdevil]

Gore's lack of personality/likeability, and his three terrible debate performances, had more to do with his loss than anything IMO. He couldn't even win his home state of Tennessee, which would have made the hanging chads in Florida irrelevant.

If you can't win your home state, it's on you. Not a surrogate or booster no matter the star power. JMHO.

It’s not that Gore lacks personality, it’s just so precious he keeps it in a “lockbox”.

[sagegrouse]

Part of Bill's issue, methinks, was also that he wasn't the one running. He's not great at subverting his personal opinions and playing the surrogate role. His political instincts remain pretty sharp though. From what I recall, he really pushed his wife's campaign team to spent more time in white, working class towns and courting that voter. They, uh, did not heed that advice.

I watched an interview with Obama not too long after the 2016 election. I don't remember the exact numbers involved but he compared the number of visits he made to certain areas in Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, PA, etc to the number of visits Hillary made to the same areas. It was pretty arresting and really underscored just how little Hillary invested in that white, working class, union town sort of area. She might not have been popular in those places to begin with but you still have to go make the case...

The nominating speech Bill Clinton gave for Obama at the 2012 Democratic national Convention was the best political speech I have ever seen. It contributed mightily to his re-election.

On the other hand, the nominating speech he gave for Michael Dukakis as a young governor in 1988 was totally panned -- it seemed to last forever. Afterwards, Hollywood friends of Bill Clinton arranged for him to appear with Johnny Carson on the Tonight Show. He came out and sat down; Johnny asked, "How are you tonight?" Before Clinton could speak, Carson pulled out a huge hourglass and placed in on his desk.

Yeah, well -- I guess politics isn't easy -- or predictable.

[JasonEvans]

It’s not that Gore lacks personality, it’s just so precious he keeps it in a “lockbox”.

The SNL recreations of the Gore-Bush debates remain the sharpest, best political humor I have ever seen.

[dudog84]

The SNL recreations of the Gore-Bush debates remain the sharpest, best political humor I have ever seen.

Better than Tina Fey/Sarah Palin???

[golfinesquire]

Gore's lack of personality/likeability, and his three terrible debate performances, had more to do with his loss than anything IMO. He couldn't even win his home state of Tennessee, which would have made the hanging chads in Florida irrelevant.

If you can't win your home state, it's on you. Not a surrogate or booster no matter the star power. JMHO.

Interesting that no one has mentioned this but a number of Jews (which includes me) believed that his choice of Lieberman also played a role in his defeat.

[dudog84]

The Trump team made a big mistake when they released the "transcript". Hard to delegitimize the whistleblower or carp that it's secondhand information when the complaint lines up perfectly with the "transcript".

Also, the "transcript" has to be their best spin on the call. Either the person who compiled it is terrible at their job or I'd hate to see what else was said.

[budwom]

Interesting that no one has mentioned this but a number of Jews (which includes me) believed that his choice of Lieberman also played a role in his defeat.

Huh, I hardly remember Lieberman as being a Democrat. Those were the days.

[dudog84]

Interesting that no one has mentioned this but a number of Jews (which includes me) believed that his choice of Lieberman also played a role in his defeat.

Sorry Sue, but I mentioned far upthread that a friend and I discussed on the day he picked Lieberman that he just lost the election. And I'm not Jewish.

P.S. In our opinion it had nothing to do with him being Jewish. He was just a bore (that campaign certainly needed some pizazz) who brought nothing to the table.

[golfinesquire]

Sorry Sue, but I mentioned far upthread that a friend and I discussed on the day he picked Lieberman that he just lost the election. And I'm not Jewish.

P.S. In our opinion it had nothing to do with him being Jewish. He was just a bore (that campaign certainly needed some pizazz) who brought nothing to the table.

Oops. I stand corrected. about being the only one to raise it. We will never know of course how much Joe effected people's votes and why, but one way or the other, he did not help.

[OldPhiKap]

The Trump team made a big mistake when they released the "transcript". Hard to delegitimize the whistleblower or carp that it's secondhand information when the complaint lines up perfectly with the "transcript".

Also, the "transcript" has to be their best spin on the call. Either the person who compiled it is terrible at their job or I'd hate to see what else was said.

Apparently, they hoped that if the "transcript" was released they would not have to release the report.

There seems to have been quite a debate within the Admin about whether to release it or not; the President and Barr were in favor while the VP and Mulvaney were against. I read a Maggie H. tweet reporting that Trump spent much of the day after the "transcript" was released going around, asking folks if it read as exculpatory to them as Trump thought it read.

There is a theory that the best way to deal with a problem is to just throw it all out there instead of looking like you are stonewalling. That has not been Trump's modus operandi to date though, and in fact is the opposite. All I can figure is that Trump thought that if he released it, the Dems would back off of impeachment.

Not to worry. Once Corey Lewindowski comes in to run the impeachment defense, everything will run much smoother.