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  1. #3381
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I would love to discuss more, perhaps over PM and not make so much work for Jason. Let's get back to the campaigns!
    Happy to discuss more offline. I don’t think anything I have said is political, just data/numbers-related. But I also understand Jason’s desire to keep this to campaigns so will stop on here. Please feel free to PM me - I love talking about this stuff.

  2. #3382
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Hey PackMan, did you win? I saw your post and did also. I haven't heard, but I also haven't heard the winners announced. So there's still hope.
    Not yet, but hope springs eternal.

  3. #3383
    DiBlasio drops out.



    Was he ever really in it?

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  4. #3384
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I donít think anything I have said is political, just data/numbers-related. But I also understand Jasonís desire to keep this to campaigns so will stop on here.
    I agree that the Canabis discussion was not very political, but seeing as I was working to quiet the healthcare debate (which was getting partisan) I went for consistency.

    I will also readily admit that I too get caught up in some of these sidebars. But this thread cannot exist without some policing and if I let he who is without sin cast the first stone none of us here would ever get stoned

    -Jason "that last line was too cute by a half... at least" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  5. #3385
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Everybody must get stoned.

    You're just a rainy day woman, Jason.

  6. #3386
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    In the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Elizabeth Warren has taken the lead over Joe Biden, 22% to 20%.

    While that is statistically a tie, the "second choice" options don't bode well for Joe. In that case, Warren leads 20% to 10%.

    There is another column, which is "Actively Considering", which I'm assuming means that those questioned said that while a candidate is not their top, or even 2nd choice, they would at least think about them. Interestingly, the highest numbers in that column goes to folk who aren't poll leaders. The top two in that group are Harris and Buttigieg, who are doing ok in the 1st/2nd columns, but they are followed closely by folks like Booker, O'Rourke, and Klobuchar, all of whom are polling pretty low.

    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/0...nescnnpoll.pdf
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  7. #3387
    This Ukraine story is insane and could very well have an effect on the election. If there's good evidence supporting the allegations that Trump pressured Ukraine to investigate Biden, in part by playing around with foreign aid, then it becomes hard for a fair-minded independent voter who believes the evidence to not come to the conclusion that it's an impeachable offense. More importantly for the purposes of this thread, if this story does have legs, then the Democrats could risk losing some of their base turnout if they DON'T proceed with impeachment proceedings. But they'll have to make an especially articulate case to avoid losing some moderate voters. A potentially tough line to walk.

  8. #3388
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    This Ukraine story is insane and could very well have an effect on the election. If there's good evidence supporting the allegations that Trump pressured Ukraine to investigate Biden, in part by playing around with foreign aid, then it becomes hard for a fair-minded independent voter who believes the evidence to not come to the conclusion that it's an impeachable offense. More importantly for the purposes of this thread, if this story does have legs, then the Democrats could risk losing some of their base turnout if they DON'T proceed with impeachment proceedings. But they'll have to make an especially articulate case to avoid losing some moderate voters. A potentially tough line to walk.
    I'm not so sure this will matter at all (not saying it shouldn't). Are there still people who are undecided about our current president? To his detractors this is just more evidence of Trump being who he is, his supporters will just brush this off as more Washington politics or evidence of a deep state conspiracy. If anything, it may just cement the current partisan divide more firmly in place. Now if some of the Senate Republicans started to speak out, that might change the situation, but I would be pretty surprised to see that happen.

    If I had to guess, I'd say there's not much chance of the democratic base not turning out, no matter what the Democrats decide to do about impeachment.

    Howard

  9. #3389
    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    If anything, it may just cement the current partisan divide more firmly in place.
    This, Democrats see what they want and that is more evil actions from Trump. Republicans see what they want and that is evidence of corruption from Biden, his son and the evil Obama administration. I'm so sick of it all. I never remember before looking at different news stations and seeing such completely different versions of a story. What really cracks me up is when ideologically aligned news outlets all use the EXACT same uncommon phrase to report a story. Ya, there are no marching orders or coordination there.

    ďI know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.Ē― Albert Einstein

  10. #3390
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    I'm not so sure this will matter at all (not saying it shouldn't). Are there still people who are undecided about our current president? To his detractors this is just more evidence of Trump being who he is, his supporters will just brush this off as more Washington politics or evidence of a deep state conspiracy. If anything, it may just cement the current partisan divide more firmly in place. Now if some of the Senate Republicans started to speak out, that might change the situation, but I would be pretty surprised to see that happen.

    If I had to guess, I'd say there's not much chance of the democratic base not turning out, no matter what the Democrats decide to do about impeachment.

    Howard
    Speaking of the undecideds you mention, my wife and I always chuckle just before the election (the campaign for which has been blasting on for two years) when the networks find a table of "undecideds" at Vern's Cafe and Bakery...they say they need "more information" even though they don't seem to show much capacity for retaining ANY information...

  11. #3391
    "If"

    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    This Ukraine story is insane and could very well have an effect on the election. If there's good evidence supporting the allegations that Trump pressured Ukraine to investigate Biden, in part by playing around with foreign aid, then it becomes hard for a fair-minded independent voter who believes the evidence to not come to the conclusion that it's an impeachable offense. More importantly for the purposes of this thread, if this story does have legs, then the Democrats could risk losing some of their base turnout if they DON'T proceed with impeachment proceedings. But they'll have to make an especially articulate case to avoid losing some moderate voters. A potentially tough line to walk.

  12. #3392
    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    I'm not so sure this will matter at all (not saying it shouldn't). Are there still people who are undecided about our current president? To his detractors this is just more evidence of Trump being who he is, his supporters will just brush this off as more Washington politics or evidence of a deep state conspiracy. If anything, it may just cement the current partisan divide more firmly in place. Now if some of the Senate Republicans started to speak out, that might change the situation, but I would be pretty surprised to see that happen.

    If I had to guess, I'd say there's not much chance of the democratic base not turning out, no matter what the Democrats decide to do about impeachment.

    Howard
    I don't think it's correct to say that impeachment proceedings wouldn't matter at all. If Democrats pursue impeachment proceedings prematurely, they risk turning people off from voting for their candidate – polling shows that about more Americans oppose proceedings than favor them (by about 50% to 37%). But if there's good evidence of the Ukraine allegations (Trump has already admitted that he discussed Biden with Ukraine, and Giuliani has already said he told Ukraine to "look into" Biden, so... seems not entirely crazy to think it could turn out that way), the Democrats may "have to" proceed. I don't know what the net effect of all this will be in the end, but unless it just totally fizzles out, I don't think it will be zero.

    EDIT: As usual, The Onion put it better than I did. Onion headline: "House Democrats Issue Condemnation Of Ukraine For Making It Harder To Avoid Impeaching Trump"

  13. #3393
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    This Ukraine story is insane and could very well have an effect on the election. If there's good evidence supporting the allegations that Trump pressured Ukraine to investigate Biden, in part by playing around with foreign aid, then it becomes hard for a fair-minded independent voter who believes the evidence to not come to the conclusion that it's an impeachable offense. More importantly for the purposes of this thread, if this story does have legs, then the Democrats could risk losing some of their base turnout if they DON'T proceed with impeachment proceedings. But they'll have to make an especially articulate case to avoid losing some moderate voters. A potentially tough line to walk.
    On the flip side, what is there is good evidence that Biden (or his son) did something worth investigating? This is a story that could completely blow up the race.

    On a different and far more interesting note, here is a story on the coming revolution for campaign websites, "Pandering at Scale".

    https://www.shellypalmer.com/2019/09...lized-politics

  14. #3394
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    I'm not so sure this will matter at all (not saying it shouldn't). Are there still people who are undecided about our current president? To his detractors this is just more evidence of Trump being who he is, his supporters will just brush this off as more Washington politics or evidence of a deep state conspiracy. If anything, it may just cement the current partisan divide more firmly in place. Now if some of the Senate Republicans started to speak out, that might change the situation, but I would be pretty surprised to see that happen.

    If I had to guess, I'd say there's not much chance of the democratic base not turning out, no matter what the Democrats decide to do about impeachment.

    Howard
    Where is the deep state conspiracy if Trump admits that he did it? Which he did.

  15. #3395
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    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    I think that if anyone gets damaged by this, it's Biden and not Trump. As perverse as that result may seem.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  16. #3396
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I think that if anyone gets damaged by this, it's Biden and not Trump. As perverse as that result may seem.
    I don't know if Biden gets damaged or not, probably. But either way, it might as well happen now and not after he secures the nomination. It's good timing.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  17. #3397
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I don't know if Biden gets damaged or not, probably. But either way, it might as well happen now and not after he secures the nomination. It's good timing.
    I feel like Biden's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. If there is even a mild hint that he will be scandal plagued as a candidate, his supporters will flock to the next "electable" choice (likely Harris or Buttigieg or maybe Booker or Beto or Klobuchar).
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #3398
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I don't know if Biden gets damaged or not, probably. But either way, it might as well happen now and not after he secures the nomination. It's good timing.
    Absolutely agree. Trump and Guliani and FoxNews have thrown out a lot of allegations in the last 72 hours. This is a good opportunity for Biden to either end it or at minimum clear the air. If there is a problem (a big, unproven "if" at this point) -- better to know now.

    ETA -- I agree with Jason's point as well, or at least the concern that such a shift could happen. Again, if you are a Democrat, better to find out now instead of next June if (another big, unproven "if" at this point) Joe survives the primary.

    Been thinking lately that Warren is gonna get through the primaries as the winner, this will help test that if Jason is right.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  19. #3399
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Where is the deep state conspiracy if Trump admits that he did it? Which he did.
    2 points:
    A) As far as I know he's not admitted to asking the Ukrainians to investigate the Bidens, only that he mentioned them in the call.
    B) Most conspiracy theorists I've met, no matter what their conspiracy of choice, are not overwhelmingly interested in facts that don't fit their theory.

  20. #3400
    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    B) Most conspiracy theorists I've met, no matter what their conspiracy of choice, are not overwhelmingly interested in facts that don't fit their theory.
    I used to work with someone like that. It's maddening trying to talk to them about anything. Half the time I thought he was just trolling, the other half I wanted to commit him to a mental health institution.

    That said, with regards to the Biden's and the Ukraine...there is a lot of facts that could give plenty of ammunition to Trump/Republicans/Conspiracists (is that a word?).

    Fox is convinced this will mark the end of the Biden campaign. The rest of the liberal media is convinced it will mark the end of the Trump Presidency. At the end of the day, the truth will be slaughtered upon the alter of political power.

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