2020 Presidential Election

[-jk]

I want to take an early pulse of our group. Go here to vote in an online poll I created asking who the 2020 nominee will be for the Dems. Try to vote by the time the weekend is over and we will have the results on Monday.

I limited our choices to the folks widely considered to be the top 10 contenders. I suppose it is possible that Gabbard or Castro or Hickenlooper or someone else begins to make waves, but at the moment I think these 10 represent the most likely choices. I listed them in alphabetical order: Amy, Bernie, Beto, Cory, Elizabeth, Joe, Kamala, Kirsten, Michael, Sherrod.

Do not pick the candidate you want... pick the one you think is most likely to win the nomination.

-Jason "maybe we will do this again a few more times over the next few months to see how our collective attitude shifts" Evans

I couldn't find "Other".

-jk

[duke79]

You are of course entitled not to vote, but it is not like you are required to wager money on this or stick with this pick for more than the five seconds it takes for you to scan the list and click your pick. I am just trying to get a sense of where we all think the field stands right now.

But, no big deal.

Way, way, way too early to even hazard a guess (on the Democrat side), IMHO! But if I were to wager a small amount of money, I would bet that Donald Trump, assuming he isn't impeached or indicted, dies, or decides not to run, will be the next president (IF the economy remains strong through 2019).

[BandAlum83]

Yep. Same here. I have absolutely no opinion at this point.

VERY interesting results thus far of the options provided. I won't reveal so people don't know ddbefore they vote.

Of course, if "other"were an option, it could end up very different.

I was true to the question and answered based on who I "think" would get the nomination if this were the extent of the field.

And all, it is an anonymous poll from what I can tell, so why not take a flyer on what it looks like to you at this point?

[BandAlum83]

Way, way, way too early to even hazard a guess (on the Democrat side), IMHO! But if I were to wager a small amount of money, I would bet that Donald Trump, assuming he isn't impeached or indicted, dies, or decides not to run, will be the next president (IF the economy remains strong through 2019).

That is a MAJOR prediction that would definitely be swimming upstream right now.

Do you care to handicap your caveat:

assuming he isn't impeached or indicted, dies, or decides not to run

[CameronBornAndBred]

VERY interesting results thus far of the options provided. I won't reveal so people don't know ddbefore they vote.

Of course, if "other"were an option, it could end up very different.

I was true to the question and answered based on who I "think" would get the nomination if this were the extent of the field.

And all, it is an anonymous poll from what I can tell, so why not take a flyer on what it looks like to you at this point?

"Unsure" would be a good option.
And even though others often don't, I value my opinion. So just picking some random name is not an option for me. I'd proudly and happily vote for "I don't know".

[CameronBornAndBred]

Warren officially enters tomorrow, and Klobachar may, or may not, on Sunday.
Joe Kennedy is introducing Warren along with his endorsement. While I'm with others that she won't be the candidate, she's coming out swinging hard with that early backing.

[PackMan97]

Do not pick the candidate you want... pick the one you think is most likely to win the nomination.

I really need to know which candidates have attend Yale or Harvard and which haven't before I can give a real reading on the likelihood of their nomination.

[dudog84]

I really need to know which candidates have attend Yale or Harvard and which haven't before I can give a real reading on the likelihood of their nomination.

I take it you prefer your candidates have a GED.

[CameronBornAndBred]

There is a good article up on Yahoo about NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio and his prospects for a run. It takes a look at what he has going for him if he so chooses to step in, and what he has going against him. He's not pulling in wonderful polling numbers in his last year as mayor, but he has some ideas that I could see people championing. The big question if he decides to run, is will people get in and give him the cash to make his run a long one.

He could be a figure like Bernie in 2016. If Jason had run a poll this early in that race, I would have voted, and most of us would have said that HRC is going to be the nominee. I bet NOBODY would have said Bernie Sanders would even be close to being in the mix. But he ran a hell of a grass roots campaign and very well could have been the nominee if the system weren't so swayed towards Clinton.

A quote from the article.

“Whether people like it or not, he’s good at campaigning. … He’s smart. He knows how to get a crowd going and give bear hugs,” the ex-adviser said. “There’s probably a theory in his head, ‘I’ll go there and all these people haven’t been in tough races or aren’t good campaigners, and I’ll look good comparatively.’”

https://news.yahoo.com/new-york-city...221446937.html

[duke79]

Like much of her campaign so far, the "let me grab a beer" moment felt completely contrived and planned and in no way genuine. She is trying waaaay too hard and it shows. She and her top advisers come up with ideas and don't really think about how they will play out. I mean, the fact that she starts the video and then immediately grabs the beer is just soooo obvious. "Hey, look at how down to Earth I am!"

Warren has shown me nothing to indicate she will be able to separate herself from a large field and be a real contender for the nomination. I'd make her no better than 8th or so on my list of the most likely nominee (a list that begins with Beto, Biden, and Harris at the top) and when you consider how hot a commodity she was a couple years ago, that's a serious indictment of her campaign.

-Jason "'who would you rather have a beer with' is a huge huge huge factor in picking a President... Warren is thus far failing in that measure" Evans

Yea, I agree with you here. I don't think Warren will "wear well" as the campaign goes along. I live in the "Peoples Republic of Massachusetts" and many people here LOVE her but I'm not sure that that "love" will happen in other, more conservative parts of the country. Plus, I think she has seriously hurt herself with the whole "native american" episode (or whatever you want to call it). You DO have to wonder why she characterized herself as a "American Indian" or "Native American" on her bar registrations, law professors' listings, and other spots that would have helped her professionally? I personally don't buy her explanations and I think many other people are skeptical too.

[PackMan97]

I take it you prefer your candidates have a GED.

Actually that may lead to more of a common sense President than some of the Ivy Leaguers we've had. I would just prefer not all our Presidents come from the same small pool of elites. Diversity is good, ya know?

Although, given the track record of Presidents from Duke...maybe not

[Reilly]

I take it you prefer your candidates have a GED.

I've always liked this quote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nf_bu-kBr4

[duke79]

That is a MAJOR prediction that would definitely be swimming upstream right now.

Do you care to handicap your caveat:

Admittedly, this seems like a somewhat crazy prediction, given the amount of negative publicity swirling around DT and his cohorts right now. But, again, assuming he can survive until 2019 without being impeached, indicted, dying, or dropping out, etc, AND assuming that the economy remains strong, I just don't think any of the current Democrats running will beat him. As Bill Clinton so famously said in 1992, "It's the economy, stupid". As long as people are employed and doing well in their own personal lives, they tend not to change horses mid-race. Plus, say what you like about DT, but he is a force of nature on the campaign trail and he's not afraid to go where most other politicians would never go - i.e., "crooked Hillary", "Pocahantas" "Low-energy Jeb", etc. It seems juvenile but I think it actually works with many voters.

Who knows what will happen over the next two years with the Trump administration? It's hard to handicap at this point in time. But NOTHING would surprise me. He may survive or it may get much worse. Obviously, the Mueller report, when it finally comes out, will play a big part in DT's future political chances.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Warren officially enters tomorrow, and Klobuchar may, or may not, on Sunday.
Joe Kennedy is introducing Warren along with his endorsement. While I'm with others that she won't be the candidate, she's coming out swinging hard with that early backing.

This comes out just before she does or doesn't. Long story short, Amy Klobuchar is a horrible boss.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s mistreatment of her office staff began more than a decade ago and eventually caused such concerns that in 2015, then-Senate minority leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) spoke to her privately and told her to change her behavior, multiple sources have confirmed to HuffPost.
Klobuchar, a Democrat who plans to announce whether she’s running for president at a rally in Minneapolis on Sunday, has faced trouble hiring campaign aides because of her history of mistreating staff.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...aff/ar-BBTlRCy

[dudog84]

Admittedly, this seems like a somewhat crazy prediction, given the amount of negative publicity swirling around DT and his cohorts right now. But, again, assuming he can survive until 2019 without being impeached, indicted, dying, or dropping out, etc, AND assuming that the economy remains strong, I just don't think any of the current Democrats running will beat him. As Bill Clinton so famously said in 1992, "It's the economy, stupid". As long as people are employed and doing well in their own personal lives, they tend not to change horses mid-race. Plus, say what you like about DT, but he is a force of nature on the campaign trail and he's not afraid to go where most other politicians would never go - i.e., "crooked Hillary", "Pocahantas" "Low-energy Jeb", etc. It seems juvenile but I think it actually works with many voters.

Who knows what will happen over the next two years with the Trump administration? It's hard to handicap at this point in time. But NOTHING would surprise me. He may survive or it may get much worse. Obviously, the Mueller report, when it finally comes out, will play a big part in DT's future political chances.

Holy cow, he's already done that!

[dudog84]

Actually that may lead to more of a common sense President than some of the Ivy Leaguers we've had. I would just prefer not all our Presidents come from the same small pool of elites. Diversity is good, ya know?

Although, given the track record of Presidents from Duke...maybe not

There is plenty of diversity among smart people.

If we have had poor leaders, guess who elected them.

The problem is not with the people running (necessarily). It's that a large portion of this country wants to be entertained or have a beer with their president, vote their party line regardless of the candidate, are uninformed on the issues that will affect them, or are just plain stupid enough to believe the outrageous promises that are fed them.

I'm not advocating for a monarchy, communism, or poll testing. Democracy is simply the worst system, except for all the others (cue Winston Churchill).

[duke79]

Holy cow, he's already done that!

LOL, good catch and sorry for the brain freeze. I meant to say "until 2020" ....

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

The problem is not with the people running (necessarily). It's that a large portion of this country wants to be entertained or have a beer with their president, vote their party line regardless of the candidate, are uninformed on the issues that will affect them, or are just plain stupid enough to believe the outrageous promises that are fed them.

I think George Carlin said it best - several ways...

"Think about how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of 'em are stupider than that."

"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups."

"If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're going to have selfish, ignorant leaders."

"In America, anyone can become president. That’s the problem."

"Here's all you need to know about men and women. Women are crazy. Men are stupid. And the main reason women are crazy is that men are stupid."

[Bob Green]

Interesting approach by Cory Booker:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/10/polit...ity/index.html

This can't just be about an election," Booker said. "This has to be about a larger campaign for our country. ... I want to win the White House back, but it's not to beat Republicans. It's to unite Americans.

[wavedukefan70s]

I must be getting ill.usually I think Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is crazy .but she had a point on a particular subject that I agree with.now I will be analyzing my self for the next two days.
To be quite honest I have lost faith in both major parties. I'm for a consumption tax .that's the only thing I wholeheartedly want.everthing else I'll look at on a case by case basis.