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  1. #3301
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    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    On a Monday morning when I have too much time on my hands...

    We're over 13-1/2 months from Election Day, and we're already at page 165 on this thread. That's exactly 1/5 of the way to the total of the 2016 thread (825 pages).

    We started a bit over a month earlier this time, and I'm wondering if the LTE thread is in danger. It currently stands at 1,167 pages. The Ymm, Beer thread is certainly in peril with 1,076 pages, although this election season could certainly lead to an increase in drinking so it may surge.

    Thread views is another dynamic. Stay tuned.

    Edit: Darn, I pushed it to 166. So we're at 0.201212121212121...

  2. #3302
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    On a Monday morning when I have too much time on my hands...

    We're over 13-1/2 months from Election Day, and we're already at page 165 on this thread. That's exactly 1/5 of the way to the total of the 2016 thread (825 pages).
    Really enjoying the first post in this thread:

    -Jason "Lizzie Warren is in... and that is a bad sign for her chances. Typically, the strongest candidates wait as long as they can to get in the race. I expect Biden, Beto, Booker, Bloomberg, Harris, and Gillibrand to wait until at least February to join the fray" Evans
    Obviously, we can make fun of JE since the rest of us have been right about everything 100% of the time

  3. #3303
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    "Poll finds little change among candidates after Democratic debate"

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politi...b7Kz&ocid=iehp

    Some tidbits in the article about support by gender and age, but generally things are little different than they were several months ago.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  4. #3304
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    "Poll finds little change among candidates after Democratic debate"

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politi...b7Kz&ocid=iehp

    Some tidbits in the article about support by gender and age, but generally things are little different than they were several months ago.
    Hang on... that poll finds Buttigieg moving ahead of Sanders and it puts the South Bend mayor into double digits. That is a big deal for him!

    Biden 30
    Warren 20
    Buttigieg 12
    Sanders 10
    Harris 5
    None/Others 23

    -Jason "Worth noting that the "none/other" voters have a big enough block to be in 2nd place... still lots of movement possible here" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  5. #3305
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Well, the first article I linked making the exact same argument was from CNN which I assume is left-leaning enough to meet the standards of this board. But yes — this is exactly how the right is spinning this to gin up their base and to fundraise. That’s my point.

    The issue isn’t whether I agree or disagree with Beto — that is beyond the scope of this thread for PPB reasons. It’s whether having desperate candidates saying controversial things to try and gain relevance is smart politics or not. I think not. But the DNC apparently disagrees, thus keeping folks like this on the national stage.
    One interesting comparison here is to Trump. During the campaign he had very simplistic messages, such as "Build a Wall, ban Muslim immigrants, and Make America Great Again, etc." and these messages served to suck all the air out of the room. Left leaning people thought his plan to ban Muslims from entering the country (for example) was preposterous and unrealistic. But it WAS a plan. Their plan was much more complex and felt a lot like status quo. Come election time, one of the pundits (I don't recall which one) noted that what voters will remember is that Trump has a simple plan they could understand and Hillary does not. They opted for the candidate who would "shake things up."

    I don't think Beto's "plan" to take away AR-15's is realistic and it is definitely divisive, but it is a simple plan that I think a majority of Americans can understand. It also implies some action, which many on both sides are itching for. Ultimately I don't know if this will motivate more people than it drives away, and that's the most important calculation.
    "There can BE only one."

  6. #3306
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Hang on... that poll finds Buttigieg moving ahead of Sanders and it puts the South Bend mayor into double digits. That is a big deal for him!

    Biden 30
    Warren 20
    Buttigieg 12
    Sanders 10
    Harris 5
    None/Others 23

    -Jason "Worth noting that the "none/other" voters have a big enough block to be in 2nd place... still lots of movement possible here" Evans
    Yeah, not sure where they got that about Mayor Pete -- every poll Nate Silver has reported for a month shows him between 4% and the occasional 6%:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...atic/national/

    Did anyone of the "others" do anything that would move the needle besides maybe Beto? He seems a pretty consistent 3% or so. Yang and Castro both tried to make a splash, but I don't think either moved positive and may likely drop from their performances. Castro's shot at Biden backfired IMO, and Yang's giveaway seemed overtly gimmicky (and perhaps not legal) to me.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  7. #3307
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Yang's giveaway seemed overtly gimmicky (and perhaps not legal) to me.
    It did get his campaign a million bucks, though.
    Now, the Yang campaign says more than 450,000 people have entered the contest, Politico reports. More than 90 percent of the email addresses collected were new, the campaign said. The Yang campaign also said it raised $1 million in the 72 hours after the debate, a significant haul considering it only raised $2.8 million in the entire last quarter.
    https://theweek.com/speedreads/86516...om-andrew-yang
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #3308
    I entered Mr. Yang's contest. Why not?

  9. #3309
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Tucson, AZ
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Hang on... that poll finds Buttigieg moving ahead of Sanders and it puts the South Bend mayor into double digits. That is a big deal for him!
    Biden 30
    Warren 20
    Buttigieg 12
    Sanders 10
    Harris 5
    None/Others 23

    -Jason "Worth noting that the "none/other" voters have a big enough block to be in 2nd place... still lots of movement possible here" Evans
    Many things about this poll ("Microsoft News Poll"?) are weird. In addition to Mayor Pete, that is quite low for Sanders as well. The gender breakdown is odd - why would the undecided % be so much higher for men than women? "Candidates were excluded when the margin of error fell below zero" - seems like a strange way to cut, why? The graph is also strange - who shows +/- margin of error as different bars? Finally, the title doesn't match the findings. I suggest extreme caution with this poll, it feels very unscientific.

  10. #3310
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    "Poll finds little change among candidates after Democratic debate"

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politi...b7Kz&ocid=iehp

    Some tidbits in the article about support by gender and age, but generally things are little different than they were several months ago.
    Count me a non-believer:

    Methodology

    The Microsoft News Poll uses online, opt-in surveys to produce statistically valid results. In this poll, responses were collected on more than 300 sites across the U.S. and analyzed by polling firm CivicScience to model how demographic groups answered each question. Answers were then projected onto the true distribution of those demographic groups. The method is as accurate as traditional polling methods.
    Here's Morning Consult post-debate (Biden 32, Sanders 20, Warren 18, Harris 6, Buttigieg 5), I trust them more than the above.

    https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

  11. #3311
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    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Here's Morning Consult post-debate (Biden 32, Sanders 20, Warren 18, Harris 6, Buttigieg 5), I trust them more than the above.

    https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
    That sounds more realistic.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  12. #3312
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    The HarrisX tracking poll just came out with their post-debate poll, and Biden still with a solid lead, in fact it may have grown a bit.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    And Castro certainly didn't help himself.

  13. #3313
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by crimsondevil View Post
    Many things about this poll ("Microsoft News Poll"?) are weird. In addition to Mayor Pete, that is quite low for Sanders as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Sanders is coming off the trail for a bit to "rest his voice".

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/sanders-b...232621154.html
    Man, you take that ONE day off!!!
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  14. #3314
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    Sep 2007
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    First choice among black voters, by age, from latest @MorningConsult poll:

    18-34

    Sanders 34%
    Biden 30%
    Warren 8%

    35-44

    Biden 34%
    Sanders 20%
    Warren 8%

    45-64

    Biden 48%
    Sanders 14%
    Warren 14%

    65+

    Biden 55%
    Warren 11%
    Sanders 10%

    ————-
    First-choice support, by ideology:

    Very liberal

    Warren 27%
    Sanders 24%
    Biden 23%

    Liberal

    Biden 30%
    Warren 20%
    Sanders 19%

    Moderate

    Biden 39%
    Sanders 17%
    Warren 13%

    Conservative

    Biden 39%
    Sanders 19%
    Warren 9%
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  15. #3315
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    First choice among black voters, by age, from latest @MorningConsult poll:

    18-34

    Sanders 34%
    Biden 30%
    Warren 8%

    35-44

    Biden 34%
    Sanders 20%
    Warren 8%

    45-64

    Biden 48%
    Sanders 14%
    Warren 14%

    65+

    Biden 55%
    Warren 11%
    Sanders 10%

    ————-
    First-choice support, by ideology:

    Very liberal

    Warren 27%
    Sanders 24%
    Biden 23%

    Liberal

    Biden 30%
    Warren 20%
    Sanders 19%

    Moderate

    Biden 39%
    Sanders 17%
    Warren 13%

    Conservative

    Biden 39%
    Sanders 19%
    Warren 9%
    Interesting. I assume the consideration set was only Biden, Sanders and Warren and not any of the other candidates?

  16. #3316
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Hang on... that poll finds Buttigieg moving ahead of Sanders and it puts the South Bend mayor into double digits. That is a big deal for him!

    Biden 30
    Warren 20
    Buttigieg 12
    Sanders 10
    Harris 5
    None/Others 23

    -Jason "Worth noting that the "none/other" voters have a big enough block to be in 2nd place... still lots of movement possible here" Evans
    This poll smells of outlier.

  17. #3317
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Conservative

    Biden 39%
    Sanders 19%
    Warren 9%
    I seriously marvel that this group of voters even exists. "Hi, I'm a conservative Democrat" are words that have not been truthfully spoken in quite a long time.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #3318
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I seriously marvel that this group of voters even exists. "Hi, I'm a conservative Democrat" are words that have not been truthfully spoken in quite a long time.
    FWIW:

    In 2018, Gallup's ideology polling found that 35% of Democrats self-identified as moderate and 13% identified as conservative; 50% of Democratic respondents described their ideology as liberal.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Democrat

    Small, but not insignificant. With 42 million or so registered Democrats ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poli..._United_States ) that’s about 5.5 million people. And I am sure that what a self-described Democratic conservative is, and what a self-described Republican conservative is, are two very different things.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  19. #3319
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    FWIW:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Democrat

    Small, but not insignificant. With 42 million or so registered Democrats ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poli..._United_States ) that’s about 5.5 million people. And I am sure that what a self-described Democratic conservative is, and what a self-described Republican conservative is, are two very different things.
    I don't think the traditional liberal/conservative and Democrat/Republican really go together anymore or mean the same things as they did 30 years ago. The world is topsy turvy these days.

  20. #3320
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I don't think the traditional liberal/conservative and Democrat/Republican really go together anymore or mean the same things as they did 30 years ago. The world is topsy turvy these days.
    True. Trump certainly is not a Reagan/Buckley Republican (pro-free trade, pro-law, anti-Soviet/Russia, small government, lower debt). He has blown up the model, at least temporarily.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

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