Page 130 of 143 FirstFirst ... 3080120128129130131132140 ... LastLast
Results 2,581 to 2,600 of 2850
  1. #2581
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Per Nate Silver, the trade war is likely lowering Trump’s re-election chances by 5% to 10%. Significant for a candidate who has rarely tried to expand his base.

    https://twitter.com/natesilver538/st...491345925?s=21
    I wish Silver had stated from which percentage he was subtracting those points. Is he saying Trump is down to 90% chance of being reelected, or is he down to 40%? Without knowing the starting point, it doesn't help much.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #2582
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Sorry for the distraction... back to Presidential politics. Here is a look at news coverage of the candidates last week that shows Beto had a very, very good week (because his hometown had a very, very bad week) and Kamala Harris' star continues to fade.



    -Jason "if Beto surges in polling, it will be strange to reflect on how his campaign may have been saved by a terrible, random tragedy" Evans
    And Beto used profanity! Landsakes! Never underestimate Americans' desire to be 'shocked' or the media's penchant for feeding it to them.

    A bit more surprised at Bernie's fade. I think he's taking a lot of the 'old news' mantle that would otherwise be draped around Biden.

    Let's be honest...it really wasn't that random, now was it?

  3. #2583
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    ...but China is what keeps me up at night these days. I pray daily for the folks in Hong Kong that only want the right to self rule.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I honestly cannot see any end to the Hong Kong crisis that does not involve either a) China capitulating and severing Hong Kong's leadership from Beijing's control or b) a brutal, armed crackdown that will likely make Tiananmen Square seem tame by comparison.

    I suspect you can guess which of those is way way way more likely.
    All of China's neighbors are watching this closely. If I were China, I wouldn't choose this time to reveal my true nature under all the "peaceful rise" rhetoric. Something about fighting battles on too many fronts. The world has long viewed Hong Kong as a city-state that China only has symbolic ownership of, and Hong Kong's people identify as Hongkongers, not Chinese. That along would make flattening HK worse than Tiananmen before we get to the likelihood of the body count being higher.

  4. #2584
    This American Life recently did an episode entitled "The Wannabes." It focuses on the Democratic candidates who are polling at 0-1% and follows them around Iowa for a bit. It is pretty interesting to see how their relative strategies play out and how they are viewed by the locals. The neatest part was listening to the reporters who cover the campaigns talk about their stump speeches and the anecdotes they share over and over again.

    They also noted that policy ideas don't really move the needle, and what people really want to see is someone they think can beat Trump.

    One interesting point was a view from one particular Iowan who grouped the candidates into two groups:
    - Candidates who transform the audience. Warren, Booker, Buttigieg fit this bill, with Warren being tops.
    - Candidates who don't - basically everyone else, including Biden. Voters leave with basically the same impression they came with.
    - He then calls out Beto O'Rourke, noting for him voters have actually gone backwards and have a worse impression of him than when they arrived.

    It's not a scientific poll or anything, but it was interesting to me to hear which candidates he thinks are getting people's attention and which ones aren't.

    Last section was an interesting view into Bill Kristol's effort to find a suitable Republican challenger for Trump, and why he thinks that is important.
    "There can BE only one."

  5. #2585
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Amy Walter spoke yesterday at our seminar program in Steamboat Springs. Walter is an American political analyst, currently serving as national editor of The Cook Political Report. Before this, she served as the political director of ABC News, based in Washington, DC. She frequently appears on NPR.

    A few interesting observations: While, following the mid-term gains, the strategy for the Dems seems obvious -- flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which surprisingly went for Trump in 2016. But that may short-sighted as a strategy. while mid-term voting was high everywhere, in the 2018 mid-terms, where Dems made gains, the non-voters in those three states were more heavily Trump voters than any other part of the electorate. Therefore, the mid-term results may be misleading as a forecast of 2020.

    Moreover, while the country is becoming more diverse ethnically and younger -- and there are signs this younger voters are beginning to show up on election day -- Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are actually becoming less diverse (whiter), older and less educated, as retirees and workers move elsewhere.

    So, the strategy of "hold what Hilary won and add these three" may be deficient. The Democrats would need to also look elsewhere for gains. North Carolina and Florida came up, as well as Arizona and Texas -- all states where Dems have recently shown strength.

    Here's another way to look at it: elections are decided by the ten or eleven closest states. In 2016, here's how the "tightest" eleven states racked up:

    Code:
    ST     MAR    P    EV
    AZ	 4.1 	R	11
    FL	 1.3    R	29
    MI	 0.3    R	16
    NC	 3.8 	R	15
    PA	 1.2 	R	20
    WI	 1.0 	R	10
    Total R			101
    			
    CO	 (2.8)	D 	9
    ME	 (2.7)	D 	4
    MN	 (1.5)	D 	10
    NH	 (0.4)	D 	4
    NV	 (2.4)	D 	6
    Total D			33
    Hilary won about half of these states, but they were smaller (ave. electoral vote of 6.6 vs. ave. vote of 16.8). So, a broader strategy of also targeting FL, AZ and NC seems to make sense. And don't forget GA (Trump +5.7 percent) and Texas (Trump +9.2 percent, but divided over many Trump issues). (And the Dems will also need to defend ME, MN and NH.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  6. #2586
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada (Ohio born and raised)
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    I think it's fascinating that Texas might turn blue. There are a few reason for the democratic optimism. Following a national trend, those with college degrees are shifting to voting democrat over republican. Texas has had a large increase in college educated population over the years. To a lesser extent, the demographics of Texas have changed with more Hispanics. Hispanic voting is not as linear as many think (see Florida Hispanic/Latino Republicans) but Texas has a lot of Mexican-Americans and surprisingly, a lot of the Puerto Ricans displaced by the hurricane have made their way to Texas. Because they are U.S. Citizens, those Puerto Ricans living in Texas are immediately eligible to vote. It is safe to say they will vote Dem (or more accurately, vote against Trump). With NY and California solidly blue; Texas voting blue would be bad news for any republican looking to win a national election.

    It makes you wonder if Dems are willing to put in the resources necessary to turn Texas. Those resources could be used in Florida and the Midwest. What if you allocate resources to Texas and still lose the state? That could be a HUGE mistake.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/08/polit...020/index.html
    https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/0...s-permanently/
    I think the dems ability to win in Texas depends on the nominee. Biden or another moderate takes it and it would be very smart of them to pump a lot of money into Texas and the rust belt. If the map stays the same minus a Texas flip, it’s all over. Dems get 270. I think there is little doubt Texas will be blue eventually but that will be offset a lot by Florida and Ohio being solid red as well as some of the other rust belt states. There could be a very real scenario in 2024 where there is really only a fight for 1-2 states.

  7. #2587
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    I think the dems ability to win in Texas depends on the nominee. Biden or another moderate takes it and it would be very smart of them to pump a lot of money into Texas and the rust belt. If the map stays the same minus a Texas flip, it’s all over. Dems get 270. I think there is little doubt Texas will be blue eventually but that will be offset a lot by Florida and Ohio being solid red as well as some of the other rust belt states. There could be a very real scenario in 2024 where there is really only a fight for 1-2 states.
    I buy Ohio being solid red, but Florida seems about as purple as a state can get.

    2016- red
    2012- blue
    2008- blue
    2004- red
    2000- pick ‘em
    1996- blue
    1992- red

    The only pattern I’m seeing is that they’re a solid bellwether for the actual EC outcome.

    I haven’t heard of any trends that they’re headed strongly red (mostly the reverse) but I’m willing to listen.

  8. #2588
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    A few interesting observations: While, following the mid-term gains, the strategy for the Dems seems obvious -- flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which surprisingly went for Trump in 2016. But that may short-sighted as a strategy. while mid-term voting was high everywhere, in the 2018 mid-terms, where Dems made gains, the non-voters in those three states were more heavily Trump voters than any other part of the electorate. Therefore, the mid-term results may be misleading as a forecast of 2020.
    I think I get what you're saying is that these voters will turn out when Trump is on the ticket. But it could also be that buyer's remorse and/or fatigue was setting in with them. Time (next year) will tell.

  9. #2589
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Here is some more opinion/analysis that Texas may become competitive:

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/13/polit...ins/index.html

    Now Texas Republicans face indications that the same recoil from President Donald Trump that has hurt the party in other diverse and well-educated metropolitan areas -- from suburban Philadelphia to Orange County, California -- could combine with growing racial diversity to move Texas from reliably red into a genuinely competitive state much more quickly than almost any analyst envisioned even a few years ago.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  10. #2590
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by alteran View Post
    I buy Ohio being solid red, but Florida seems about as purple as a state can get.

    2016- red
    2012- blue
    2008- blue
    2004- red
    2000- pick ‘em
    1996- blue
    1992- red

    The only pattern I’m seeing is that they’re a solid bellwether for the actual EC outcome.

    I haven’t heard of any trends that they’re headed strongly red (mostly the reverse) but I’m willing to listen.
    My county was solid blue for years, but about 10 years ago a guy (since deceased) took over the local R party and was indefatigable in turning the county red. Now there are more R registered voters and the tide has turned.

    The Rs were very smart in concentrating on local elections and state governments. We'll see if the Ds have learned their lessons, or (probably more accurately) can implement any of those lessons.

  11. #2591
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    I think I get what you're saying is that these voters will turn out when Trump is on the ticket. But it could also be that buyer's remorse and/or fatigue was setting in with them. Time (next year) will tell.
    I think that’s reasonable short term. But long term, the trends in those “blue wall states” look a lot like Ohio’s.

  12. #2592
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I honestly cannot see any end to the Hong Kong crisis that does not involve either a) China capitulating and severing Hong Kong's leadership from Beijing's control or b) a brutal, armed crackdown that will likely make Tiananmen Square seem tame by comparison.

    I suspect you can guess which of those is way way way more likely.
    China has their eye on the Big Picture -- Taiwan. I do not believe "a brutal, armed crackdown" will take place as it would negatively affect the long term goal of peacefully regaining control of Taiwan. As has been stated a couple of times upthread, Chinese leaders focus on long term objectives.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  13. #2593
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Stacey Abrams announces that she is not going to run, while Mark Sanford is in New Hampshire making more noise that he will. Because why not.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  14. #2594
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by alteran View Post
    I think that’s reasonable short term. But long term, the trends in those “blue wall states” look a lot like Ohio’s.
    Yeah, the manufacturing, blue color, union workers in those states who used to be very reliably D are increasingly becoming Republicans.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  15. #2595
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, the manufacturing, blue color, union workers in those states who used to be very reliably D are increasingly becoming Republicans.
    So, gaming this out a little bit...do we think that means that the common perception that Republicans are the party of the rich and Democrats the party of the working class will eventually switch? Democratic voters are trending suburban, middle class and most college-educated blocs (which positively correlates with income) vote Democratic. I'd need to go back and look but I believe that above a certain income threshold, the voting preferences were essentially a wash in 2016. However, I do believe that incomes between 50,000 - 100,000 still tilted Republican. Republicans on the other hand are increasingly rural and, to your point, blue collar voters are switching allegiances.

  16. #2596
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Stacey Abrams announces that she is not going to run, while Mark Sanford is in New Hampshire making more noise that he will. Because why not.
    Part of the Appalachian Trail runs through New Hampshire. Coincidence? I think not.

  17. #2597
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    So, gaming this out a little bit...do we think that means that the common perception that Republicans are the party of the rich and Democrats the party of the working class will eventually switch? Democratic voters are trending suburban, middle class and most college-educated blocs (which positively correlates with income) vote Democratic. I'd need to go back and look but I believe that above a certain income threshold, the voting preferences were essentially a wash in 2016. However, I do believe that incomes between 50,000 - 100,000 still tilted Republican. Republicans on the other hand are increasingly rural and, to your point, blue collar voters are switching allegiances.
    Another Amy Walter point from last night is that Republicans are losing the suburbs. Duh! But her point is that it's not only happening in NY, NJ and PA but everywhere -- Houston, Dallas, Orange County. Most heavily correlated with education but also with income.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  18. #2598
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    So, gaming this out a little bit...do we think that means that the common perception that Republicans are the party of the rich and Democrats the party of the working class will eventually switch?
    The ongoing long-term realignment is interesting for sure. I could envision a D party in 15 years that is outwardly pro-corporate, pro-social justice, and maybe pro-interventionism. The embodiment of the educated, upper middle class, "I'm socially liberal and economically conservative" American.

  19. #2599
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Bernie and EWarren are both anti-corporate and anti-wealth on the stump. The suburbanites who switch to D in 2018 did not elect these sorts of candidates.

    So, I guess it depends on what you mean by “the Democratic Party” going forward.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  20. #2600
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Stacey Abrams announces that she is not going to run, while Mark Sanford is in New Hampshire making more noise that he will. Because why not.
    I bet she gets a very strong look as a VP choice if the nominee is male.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

Similar Threads

  1. 2020 Duke men's basketball recruiting
    By Duke95 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 849
    Last Post: Yesterday, 11:39 PM
  2. One n dones and returning players. 2018-2020
    By proelitedota in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 09-18-2017, 10:03 AM
  3. Coming to the 2020 Olympics: 3-on-3 basketball!
    By JasonEvans in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-09-2017, 11:44 AM
  4. Cutcliffe Extended Through 2020-21
    By BD80 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 05-01-2017, 04:46 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •