2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

Steve Kornkhaki just put up some early exit polling, and while for the most part the demographics are the same as the November race, one big difference is in the youngest voting block.
18-29 year olds have shown up so far making up 13% of the total electorate.
In November they were at 20%. Early numbers, but if they don't climb, that's a plus for the GOP.

Yup, just came here to post the same thing. The early Exit Poll also finds the AfAm percentage of the voters at 29%, identical to what it was in November. I know Democrats were hoping to get it higher this time around.

I think Democrats have to be quite disheartened by these exit poll numbers.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yup, just came here to post the same thing. The early Exit Poll also finds the AfAm percentage of the voters at 29%, identical to what it was in November. I know Democrats were hoping to get it higher this time around.

I think Democrats have to be quite disheartened by these exit poll numbers.

I trust Steve a lot, but as we have discussed here ad nauseum, aren't exit polls (like most polls, IMHO, though YMMV) not very useful when so many people voted early or by mail? Obviously Democrats would prefer different results, but I don't put a lot of weight in this. I guess comparing it to November which was a somewhat similar situation might carry some value, but it still doesn't mean a lot.

[sagegrouse]

Yup, just came here to post the same thing. The early Exit Poll also finds the AfAm percentage of the voters at 29%, identical to what it was in November. I know Democrats were hoping to get it higher this time around.

I think Democrats have to be quite disheartened by these exit poll numbers.

Are these in-day voters only, or have they sampled early voters?

[JasonEvans]

Are these in-day voters only, or have they sampled early voters?

They are conducting phone polls of early voters in addition to in-person canvassing of day-of voters. So, it is a mix of both.

[bundabergdevil]

According to Nate Cohn, "DeKalb election day turnout now at 47182, surpassing the number of ballots cast on election day in the presidential contest". He goes on to say it's too early to tell whether this suggests turnout is high throughout the state...or just in Dem strongholds.

[tendev]

They are conducting phone polls of early voters in addition to in-person canvassing of day-of voters. So, it is a mix of both.

I looked at exit polls from the general in the closely contested states and mathematically concluded that one candidate or the other should have won such a state based on the exit polls, e.g., the male/female split (one can only be in one of these categories except in very unusual cases I gather). As it turned out, the math did not match the result. In a really tight contest, the exit polls are not precise enough to predict the outcome. That said, I agree that fewer younger voters proportionally to older bodes better for Rs.

[wilson]

Anecdotal tidbit: Dekalb County, Georgia's second-bluest county by percentage and almost singlehandedly responsible for President-elect Biden's victory here, has exceeded its November turnout.

[MarkD83]

Ossoff up 74% to 26% if he loses the election is rigged. Of course only 700 votes in right now

[Kdogg]

Ossoff up 74% to 26% if he loses the election is rigged. Of course only 700 votes in right now

52 to 48. Something is rotten in Denmark. Zero percent reporting too.

Edit: I’m being light hearted. Long way to go. Fox is reporting GOP extremely happy with turnout.

[dudog84]

Jim Clyburn, pithy as usual.

"I would say to them to remember that this country's greatness depends in large measure of how we go about our business protecting the integrity of our democracy. When we see faults in our electoral system, whatever it might be, we should go about the business of repairing those faults, not trying to circumvent them or not trying to replace our own feelings for what people may have done on Election Day."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...9LI?li=BBnb7Kz

[OldPhiKap]

Georgia SOS election site for those wanting returns:

https://results.enr.clarityelections...4614/#/summary

[ClemmonsDevil]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...te-runoff.html

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ction-results/

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Georgia SOS election site for those wanting returns:

https://results.enr.clarityelections...4614/#/summary

Do we know when the absentee ballots were (or are being) counted?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Do we know when the absentee ballots were (or are being) counted?

Look how much we have learned over the last few months!

[bundabergdevil]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...te-runoff.html

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ction-results/

I'd forgotten about those election needles. From 538 below. Warnock doing a bit better than Ossoff.

JAN. 5, 7:34 PM
And we also just got about 96,000 absentee votes in Gwinnett County (the Atlanta suburbs). Ossoff won this batch 70 percent to 30 percent, and Warnock won them 71 percent to 29 percent. Biden won Gwinnett absentee ballots just 66 percent to 33 percent, so that’s a pretty good sign for Democrats.

JAN. 5, 7:32 PM
We just got about 96,000 absentee votes in Fulton County (Atlanta), which Ossoff won 80 percent to 20 percent and Warnock won 81 percent to 19 percent. In November, Biden won Fulton County absentees 79 percent to 21 percent, so tonight’s numbers imply another very close race.

[JasonEvans]

Oh snap... the NYT Needle has gone from toss-up to "tilting Ossoff" and "tilting Warnock." Needle has Ossoff winning by 0.6% and Warnock by 0.9%.

Well, I'm done. I think I will call it an early night and turn in.

[JasonEvans]

Best tweet I have seen thus far this evening...

Nearly $300 million was spent on advertising in the Loeffler-Warnock race, making it the second most expensive Senate race history — behind only Perdue-Ossoff.

[SouthernDukie]

I’ll be shocked if the Dems win both seats tonight. Will be quite a feat. But I doubt we know anything definitive until the early morning hours.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I’ll be shocked if the Dems win both seats tonight. Will be quite a feat. But I doubt we know anything definitive until the early morning hours.

I think the Dems win 4 seats tonight. Heard it here first.

[JasonEvans]

Preditit is a wild ride.

When the exit polls first came out, the GOP odds of controlling the senate spiked. At first they hit 63% and then even got as high as 70%. But, as the vote numbers have begun to trickle in, and the early vote is going really well for the Dems, the markets are going the opposite direction. Five minutes ago, it was GOP 53% and now has tumbled even more. Currently at Democrats 60% to control the Senate.

Gonna be a fun and long night!