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  1. #201
    I still don't think any Republican would beat Trump in a primary (or come anywhere remotely close), but with the arrest of political consultant/Trump advisor/conspiracy theorist Roger Stone and the government shutdown starting to have real effects on air travel (and polls showing voters blame Trump more than Democrats), you have to wonder if anyone out there is thinking about it...

  2. #202
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    I thought there was a lot in the tea leaves that Hillary would run again? http://fortune.com/2018/11/12/hillar...resident-2020/


    I wonder how Kamala Harris entering the race will affect Hillary's decision to run or not run? I could see it really bothering her if after all these years of trying and coming so close, some Johnny-Kamala-lately just prances right in and becomes the first female president in her first try.
    Lindsey Graham clearly thinks she is.

    I doubt she is though.

  3. #203
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I still don't think any Republican would beat Trump in a primary (or come anywhere remotely close), but with the arrest of political consultant/Trump advisor/conspiracy theorist Roger Stone and the government shutdown starting to have real effects on air travel (and polls showing voters blame Trump more than Democrats), you have to wonder if anyone out there is thinking about it...
    I have a flurry of articles to reference in regards to this.

    First, CNN reports that the RNC has merged with the Trump re-election campaign, meaning that if you are campaigning against Trump, you are also campaigning against the party itself.

    The Republican National Committee is poised to express its "undivided support for President Donald J. Trump and his effective Presidency" as the committee's members conclude their annual winter meeting here on Friday.

    The public articulation of support comes on the heels of an unprecedented merger between Trump's re-election campaign and the RNC, which GOP officials were briefed on during the three-day New Mexico retreat. The merger will bring the Trump re-election campaign and the RNC's field organizing and fundraising efforts under one roof, dedicating party resources to re-electing Trump before he is officially renominated.
    That said, a new Zogby poll (I know, not exactly reliable, but still...) finds Trump's support among the GOP very high but it is worth noting that about 1/3rd of the party seems willing to at least consider someone else.


    Finally, 538 has a look at Larry Hogan, the GOP Maryland governor who is supposedly thinking about challenging Trump.

    So if Hogan were to challenge Trump for the GOP nomination … could he actually win? Well, it depends on what your definition of “win” is. (Bear with me for a second.)

    In the modern era of presidential primaries, no incumbent president has ever lost renomination.1 Heck, the last time a president didn’t win renomination was in 1884, when Republican President Chester A. Arthur lost to James Blaine at the GOP convention. Moreover, among rank-and-file Republicans, Trump’s approval rating remains high — north of 80 percent. So actually defeating Trump in a Republican primary contest would be quite difficult, based on what we know now.

    But if Hogan’s goal is to win a substantial share of the vote while making the case for a different kind of Republicanism, that seems more attainable.
    -Jason "ok, question to all... if you had to bet, do you think someone will contest Trump for the GOP Nom? I know Trump will almost certainly win it, but will someone oppose him? I think yes" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #204
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "ok, question to all... if you had to bet, do you think someone will contest Trump for the GOP Nom? I know Trump will almost certainly win it, but will someone oppose him? I think yes" Evans
    That is a good question, and much harder to answer. I guess I could see someone running just in an effort to influence the dialog of the Republican party (like Bernie did last time with Democrats) or someone running in a sincere effort to win the nomination... of 2024. If the Trump administration collapses in scandal like some people think it might, it could make for a powerful message for someone in 2024 to say "I stuck to my values all along and ran for the nomination even when it was unpopular back in the 2020 version of the Republican party" (like I somewhat alluded to earlier, I think Mitt Romney already has a case for this, and should play up his Russia comments he got made fun of for in 2012).

    I would still guess the answer to your question is no... but I'm much less certain about it.

  5. #205
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    That is a good question, and much harder to answer. I guess I could see someone running just in an effort to influence the dialog of the Republican party (like Bernie did last time with Democrats) or someone running in a sincere effort to win the nomination... of 2024. If the Trump administration collapses in scandal like some people think it might, it could make for a powerful message for someone in 2024 to say "I stuck to my values all along and ran for the nomination even when it was unpopular back in the 2020 version of the Republican party" (like I somewhat alluded to earlier, I think Mitt Romney already has a case for this, and should play up his Russia comments he got made fun of for in 2012).

    I would still guess the answer to your question is no... but I'm much less certain about it.
    Romney is already 71 and would be almost 77 if he's running for 2024...so I'll say no, he wouldn't be running for 2024. If he runs in 2020 it's to because he thinks its the right thing to do not because he's setting himself for another run after Trump hits the term limit in 2024.

    What the Republican party needs is their version of Obama. Someone who is articulate and easy to understand on policy, has a short enough political career not to have a bunch of history to run against and who is likeable, even by political opponents. I thought in 2016, that could be Rubio, but he disappointed me on that account.

  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post

    -Jason "ok, question to all... if you had to bet, do you think someone will contest Trump for the GOP Nom? I know Trump will almost certainly win it, but will someone oppose him? I think yes" Evans
    Yes, and willing to bet a pie. Bet is off though if GOP cancels primaries or blocks a challenge by rule.
       

  7. #207
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Yes, and willing to bet a pie. Bet is off though if GOP cancels primaries or blocks a challenge by rule.
    I think you'll want to establish a definition of "contested" before betting, right? Looking back at the 2012 Dem nomination and 2004 GOP nomination, there were fringe candidates who got on the ballot in one state (e.g. Vermin Supreme) and some of them even made it on in more than one state, so technically the nominations were contested, but really they weren't. Should the bet be on a candidate getting onto the ballot in X number of states or getting Y% of the vote?

  8. #208
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    What the Republican party needs is their version of Obama. Someone who is articulate and easy to understand on policy, has a short enough political career not to have a bunch of history to run against and who is likeable, even by political opponents. I thought in 2016, that could be Rubio, but he disappointed me on that account.
    I'd say that Rubio WAS the conservative version of Obama. But the two parties are not equal, and they're not looking for the same thing in a candidate.

  9. #209
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    Feb 2016
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    Atlanta
    That was fast. I'm not sure we ever even recognized that he was "in"

    Dem Richard Ojeda drops out of presidential race

  10. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I think you'll want to establish a definition of "contested" before betting, right? Looking back at the 2012 Dem nomination and 2004 GOP nomination, there were fringe candidates who got on the ballot in one state (e.g. Vermin Supreme) and some of them even made it on in more than one state, so technically the nominations were contested, but really they weren't. Should the bet be on a candidate getting onto the ballot in X number of states or getting Y% of the vote?
    Valid points. And to be clear, I do not think a challenger wins although a lot can and will happen on multiple fronts before Iowa (about 53 or so weeks away I think).

    Let me think on it, and I welcome propositions. (It’s one of my less savory qualities in general, but I digress)
       

  11. #211
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    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post

    What the Republican party needs is their version of Obama. Someone who is articulate and easy to understand on policy, has a short enough political career not to have a bunch of history to run against and who is likeable, even by political opponents. I thought in 2016, that could be Rubio, but he disappointed me on that account.
    I am not too knowledgable about him but I think Ben Sasse fits the bill on a number of these measures except I'm not sure how likable he is to his political opponents, as he has actively opposed Trump in many ways but then when push comes to shove has fallen in line. At this point, I think most Republicans who have served in congress during the Trump administration and have largely voted with the party will not be very likable to Democrats, regardless of their positions pre-Trump.

  12. #212
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    Feb 2007
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    San Diego, California
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ok, question to all... if you had to bet, do you think someone will contest Trump for the GOP Nom? I know Trump will almost certainly win it, but will someone oppose him? I think yes
    I think "yes" too. In fact, if I were an ambitious Republican with a bit of a national reputation but no decent path to a nomination normally, I'll definitely run. Whatever you might think of the president, he is high variance. I'd believe almost any outcome at any point. Who knows what news might come out, what Trump might do, or what else might happen? I'd take a flyer.

  13. #213
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by RPS View Post
    I think "yes" too. In fact, if I were an ambitious Republican with a bit of a national reputation but no decent path to a nomination normally, I'll definitely run. Whatever you might think of the president, he is high variance. I'd believe almost any outcome at any point. Who knows what news might come out, what Trump might do, or what else might happen? I'd take a flyer.
    Yup. And there are substantive folks willing to throw money and press towards a challenge.

  14. #214
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    Feb 2016
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    Atlanta
    So....Howard Schultz.

    What say you all? No impact? Significant? Who will he appeal to?

    The Democrats seem to be pretty spooked by it, thinking he would serve to split Trump's opposition while not affecting his base, thereby letting him capture some states he couldn't capture otherwise.

  15. #215
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    So...Howard Schultz.

    What say you all? No impact? Significant? Who will he appeal to?

    The Democrats seem to be pretty spooked by it, thinking he would serve to split Trump's opposition while not affecting his base, thereby letting him capture some states he couldn't capture otherwise.
    I think it's a legitimate concern, even if almost no one will vote for Schultz. Jill Stein's 1.4mm vote might have swung 2016.

    So is Schultz...

    1) Vainly delusional and thinking he actually has a chance to win?
    2) Actually a Trump supporter, and doing this to help throw the election his way?
    3) Doing this in the most vain way possible to make sure Democratic voters don't put someone too liberal on the ticket?
    4) Trying to sell a book?

  16. #216
    It seems the Koch brothers will NOT contribute money to Trump, just as they did not in 2016.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bil...or-second-time

    They say that financially they will likely stay away from politics in this cycle.

  17. #217
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    I think it's a legitimate concern, even if almost no one will vote for Schultz. Jill Stein's 1.4mm vote might have swung 2016.

    So is Schultz...

    1) Vainly delusional and thinking he actually has a chance to win?
    2) Actually a Trump supporter, and doing this to help throw the election his way?
    3) Doing this in the most vain way possible to make sure Democratic voters don't put someone too liberal on the ticket?
    4) Trying to sell a book?
    Of course, it also could be (5) he thinks the two-party monopoly IS the problem, and he thinks he has something new to offer.

    (I have no idea).

    Way too early to figure on his impact, but worth watching.
       

  18. #218
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    So...Howard Schultz.

    What say you all? No impact? Significant? Who will he appeal to?

    The Democrats seem to be pretty spooked by it, thinking he would serve to split Trump's opposition while not affecting his base, thereby letting him capture some states he couldn't capture otherwise.
    People in Seattle are still so salty about the Sonics leaving, I can't imagine he would even carry that heavy left state.
       

  19. #219
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Schultz is a longtime Democrat (look at his history of donations on OpenSecrets) so I think we can rule out some plant by Trump... unless Schultz and Trump have been playing a long con for more than a decade banking on Trump winning the Presidency and needing a mysterious 3rd party candidate to muddle the field when he runs for re-election. Where's the eye rolling emoji when you need it?

    As someone who has been interested in politics for a while, I would think Schultz would recognize a move like this will cause him to be an outcast in the Democratic community. I think he will make some noise and then decided to either run as a Dem or bow out completely.

    -Jason "considering we are a year from the first votes being cast... there sure is a lot going on!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  20. #220
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    Sep 2007
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    NYT has an article up on the possibility of a Republican primary challenge. An interesting name raised was William Weld, former Massachusetts governor and the Libertarian VP candidate in 2016. He is also considering a run for the Libertarian top spot.

    Also mentions that Kadijah and Flake have TV gigs now so their desire to run may be blunted.
       

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