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  1. #21541
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I think ya'll are greatly underrating the degree to which he has sway over a huge portion of GOP voters at this point and the impact he can continue to have over the party via his Twitter feed. I don't know why you would think it will require some special "everyday focus" or grand strategy. He has repeatedly shown that by merely typing a few hundred characters, he can impact election results in the party. I thought that impact would wane after he lost, but the way the party (and especially his loyal followers) have come along in the post-election battle tells me his influence ain't going anywhere any time soon.

    It should also be noted that many smart election observers think the GOP would have been in for a harsh beating at the ballot box this year had Trump not goosed turnout in a pretty big way. In losing, Donald Trump got like 5 million more votes than anyone not named Joe Biden. There are a bunch of senators and congressmen who owe their seats to him. I am far from sure they want him to go away and be quiet.
    Yes, but again, his legal jeopardy figures to be significant, and his financial exigencies will only be exacerbated once that heat is on and the Deutsche Bank bills come due. How will he have the time just watch Fox & Friends and tweet all day?

  2. #21542
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Amusing litigation development from Wisconsin, where the Trump campaign is seeking to throw out all votes cast in Dane County via the somewhat confusingly named in-person absentee method. Among the voters in such manner, and on the list of ballots sought to be invalidated, is the lawyer representing the Trump campaign and that lawyer's wife. So they're asking for their own votes to be thrown out.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  3. #21543
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I think ya'll are greatly underrating the degree to which he has sway over a huge portion of GOP voters at this point and the impact he can continue to have over the party via his Twitter feed. I don't know why you would think it will require some special "everyday focus" or grand strategy. He has repeatedly shown that by merely typing a few hundred characters, he can impact election results in the party. I thought that impact would wane after he lost, but the way the party (and especially his loyal followers) have come along in the post-election battle tells me his influence ain't going anywhere any time soon.

    It should also be noted that many smart election observers think the GOP would have been in for a harsh beating at the ballot box this year had Trump not goosed turnout in a pretty big way. In losing, Donald Trump got like 5 million more votes than anyone not named Joe Biden. There are a bunch of senators and congressmen who owe their seats to him. I am far from sure they want him to go away and be quiet.
    I don't think he goes away, but I do think he gets a huge amplifier right now that he will lose. There is absolutely no question that for the last four years, everything he does is arguably relevant and impactful to the entire world. Once he leaves office that diminishes considerably.

    I know I look forward to deleting him from my Twitter account at noon on January 20th. I am sure I'm not alone. And without television broadcasting his every tweet, the reach of them go down considerably.

    He won't be as irrelevant as my crazy uncle screaming conspiracy theories at the television in his boxers. But he won't be top news either.

  4. #21544
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I think ya'll are greatly underrating the degree to which he has sway over a huge portion of GOP voters at this point and the impact he can continue to have over the party via his Twitter feed. I don't know why you would think it will require some special "everyday focus" or grand strategy. He has repeatedly shown that by merely typing a few hundred characters, he can impact election results in the party. I thought that impact would wane after he lost, but the way the party (and especially his loyal followers) have come along in the post-election battle tells me his influence ain't going anywhere any time soon.

    It should also be noted that many smart election observers think the GOP would have been in for a harsh beating at the ballot box this year had Trump not goosed turnout in a pretty big way. In losing, Donald Trump got like 5 million more votes than anyone not named Joe Biden. There are a bunch of senators and congressmen who owe their seats to him. I am far from sure they want him to go away and be quiet.
    This. Look at the following he build BEFORE running for President with the birtherism. That's when he was a failed businessman but successful reality star. Now he will be a former President with a platform that will not miraculously disappear.

  5. #21545
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    If all the nut jobs move to Parler I might start doing Facebook. Nah on second thought I don’t care what people I like are having for dinner either.
    Currently on FB I am running a "Coolest D1 Mascot" Tournament. Every day I match 2 universities against each other until an eventual coolest mascot will be crowned. We are still in the "play-in" phase. We won't have a champion until May.

  6. #21546
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    For those interested, Steve Inskeep of NPR is live tweeting the Michigan certification meeting. Looks like the two Republicans are asking the staff expert what they can and cannot do, basically setting up the face-saving defense of "we don't want to certify but we have no choice because the law does not give us a choice." Because the expert basically told them your job is ministerial; you cannot ask for audits; and you have to certify under the law.

    We shall see soon.

    @NPRInskeep for those interested.

  7. #21547
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    I'm going to make one more post about factors that I think might hinder Trump's future influence prospects and then I'm done.

    1) He is 74 years old and does not appear to be in good health.
    2) He won't be a former President, he will be a losing former President. America doesn't like losers unless they are also lovable.
    3) Whining about the refs doesn't really work long term. Sure, you might win one Natty, but the program will eventually switch conferences.
    4) Competition within the Republican Party. Will other 2024 hopefuls use Trump's record against him? Will FOXNews?
    5) Golf.
    6) Financial issues.

  8. #21548
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bostondevil View Post
    I'm going to make one more post about factors that I think might hinder Trump's future influence prospects and then I'm done.

    1) He is 74 years old and does not appear to be in good health.
    2) He won't be a former President, he will be a losing former President. America doesn't like losers unless they are also lovable.
    [b]3) Whining about the refs doesn't really work long term. Sure, you might win one Natty, but the program will eventually switch conferences./b]
    4) Competition within the Republican Party. Will other 2024 hopefuls use Trump's record against him? Will FOXNews?
    5) Golf.
    6) Financial issues.
    Can’t spork but #3 is amazing. Well done

    This is highly improbable, but I wonder if this battle for the soul of the GOP, plus other initiatives gaining momentum like ranked choice voting and non gerrymandered redistricting, make the environment ripe for a potential party realignment? Or an actual multi party system? I would bet against them but will be interesting to see if this is a Trump centric blip or a pivotal moment with long term implications.
       

  9. #21549
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    For those interested, Steve Inskeep of NPR is live tweeting the Michigan certification meeting. Looks like the two Republicans are asking the staff expert what they can and cannot do, basically setting up the face-saving defense of "we don't want to certify but we have no choice because the law does not give us a choice." Because the expert basically told them your job is ministerial; you cannot ask for audits; and you have to certify under the law.

    We shall see soon.

    @NPRInskeep for those interested.
    Live feed: https://www.freep.com/story/news/pol...ts/6388530002/

  10. #21550
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Bostondevil View Post
    1) He is 74 years old and does not appear to be in good health.
    Dissent about his health. Yes, he is a big guy but (as you noted) the mere fact that she sends so much time golfing would seem to undercut the notion that he is somewhat infirmed. And it isn't like 74 is ancient. I mean, something like 15% of the US Senate is older than 74 right now.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  11. #21551
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Manhattan
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I know I look forward to deleting him from my Twitter account at noon on January 20th.
    Out of curiosity: what’s stopping you from doing that today?

  12. #21552
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Dissent about his health. Yes, he is a big guy but (as you noted) the mere fact that she sends so much time golfing would seem to undercut the notion that he is somewhat infirmed. And it isn't like 74 is ancient. I mean, something like 15% of the US Senate is older than 74 right now.
    Agree. He seems much healthier than he has any right to be.

  13. #21553
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I think y'all are greatly underrating the degree to which he has sway over a huge portion of GOP voters at this point and the impact he can continue to have over the party via his Twitter feed. I don't know why you would think it will require some special "everyday focus" or grand strategy. He has repeatedly shown that by merely typing a few hundred characters, he can impact election results in the party. I thought that impact would wane after he lost, but the way the party (and especially his loyal followers) have come along in the post-election battle tells me his influence ain't going anywhere any time soon.

    It should also be noted that many smart election observers think the GOP would have been in for a harsh beating at the ballot box this year had Trump not goosed turnout in a pretty big way. In losing, Donald Trump got like 5 million more votes than anyone not named Joe Biden. There are a bunch of senators and congressmen who owe their seats to him. I am far from sure they want him to go away and be quiet.
    I agree with this and am surprised no one has mentioned Trump’s rallies. As long as he draws a big adoring crowd, Trump isn’t going anywhere. Trump is a polarizing figure — in the true sense of the word. You either love him or hate him. Too many people who are turned off by Trump forget just how fervent his following is.
    Carolina delenda est

  14. #21554
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Native View Post
    Out of curiosity: what’s stopping you from doing that today?
    Because unfortunately it is the way he conducts the business of the United States. And I hope he is the last president to do so.
       

  15. #21555
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    I agree with this and am surprised no one has mentioned Trump’s rallies. As long as he draws a big adoring crowd, Trump isn’t going anywhere. Trump is a polarizing figure — in the true sense of the word. You either love him or hate him. Too many people who are turned off by Trump forget just how fervent his following is.
    Yup. Someone is going to have to forcibly yank away Trump's current influence over the GOP, because he's never going to surrender it willingly. Whether he sees himself as king or kingmaker from here. At the moment, I see no obvious candidates capable of doing that, though surely plenty have designs.

  16. #21556
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Dissent about his health. Yes, he is a big guy but (as you noted) the mere fact that she sends so much time golfing would seem to undercut the notion that he is somewhat infirmed. And it isn't like 74 is ancient. I mean, something like 15% of the US Senate is older than 74 right now.
    An expert says Trump is the healthiest man ever elected to the presidency.

  17. #21557
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Dissent about his health. Yes, he is a big guy but (as you noted) the mere fact that she sends so much time golfing would seem to undercut the notion that he is somewhat infirmed. And it isn't like 74 is ancient. I mean, something like 15% of the US Senate is older than 74 right now.
    He rides carts onto greens. So, I'm not sure how much exercise he's actually getting or if he's up to a full 18 holes. No, 74 is not ancient and yes, his father lived to be quite old but, IIRC, Dad had Alzheimer's at the end. The many videos of him doing thinks like needing 2 hands to drink from a glass, that walk down the ramp, the numerous times he's slurred his words, all told, they do not show the picture of a man in good health. If any of these things had happened in isolation, I would dismiss it, but taken together in the absence of any kind of public medical information released about him? Yeah, I won't believe he's healthy until he proves it. Plus, he has had covid which research is showing can lead to multiple long term problems.

  18. #21558
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    For those interested, Steve Inskeep of NPR is live tweeting the Michigan certification meeting. Looks like the two Republicans are asking the staff expert what they can and cannot do, basically setting up the face-saving defense of "we don't want to certify but we have no choice because the law does not give us a choice." Because the expert basically told them your job is ministerial; you cannot ask for audits; and you have to certify under the law.

    We shall see soon.

    @NPRInskeep for those interested.
    Thanks. He made an interesting observation that GM "certified" Biden's victory in MI before MI did by pivoting away from Trump's climate plan in support of Biden's plan.

    I believe NAM and the Chamber have already issued statements of support for a smooth transition but interesting (and not surprising) to see big business continue to nudge things forward.

  19. #21559
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Amusing litigation development from Wisconsin, where the Trump campaign is seeking to throw out all votes cast in Dane County via the somewhat confusingly named in-person absentee method. Among the voters in such manner, and on the list of ballots sought to be invalidated, is the lawyer representing the Trump campaign and that lawyer's wife. So they're asking for their own votes to be thrown out.
    It raises an interesting question. If mail-in voting in fact is illegal and fraudulent, shouldn’t we arrest everyone that did it for voter fraud? My 18 year-old daughter thought she could get away with it but alas...

    (Of course we would also have to arrest the outgoing POTUS.)

  20. #21560
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    I agree with this and am surprised no one has mentioned Trump’s rallies. As long as he draws a big adoring crowd, Trump isn’t going anywhere. Trump is a polarizing figure — in the true sense of the word. You either love him or hate him. Too many people who are turned off by Trump forget just how fervent his following is.
    He'll keep doing rallies. But he can do that by teasing a run in 2024, or saying he will run but bowing out at the end.

    But the big questions are:

    1. will anyone televise the rallies?
    2. will people pay to go? Fun is fun, but if there's no $$ there's a problem.

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