My armchair analysis of the confusing state of the race for the Democratic nomination is as follows:
1. The cacophony is the product of over 20 candidates, many of them credible in terms of qualifications.
2. We have so many candidates, in part because Trump looked like an anomaly and quite vulnerable.
3. Moreover, there was no obvious leader for the Democratic nomination as of the end of 2018. Biden, the current leader, seemed unlikely to run. The obvious candidates, Sanders and Warren, had obvious weaknesses.
4. If a Democrat were to win in 2020, then that candidate would likely be nominated for reelection in 2024. Therefore, the earliest "open nomination" would have been in 2028, ten years after most candidates decided to run in 2020.
5. And, of course, many, many elected officials look in the mirror and see a president staring back.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013