2020 Presidential Election

[dudog84]

IMO, the insurance rate cut by the Fed, next week, will support the economy. If Trump cuts a deal with China, in the first half of 2020, then the economy will be further supported going into the elections.

FWIW, the finance industry is definitely seeing lower level wage growth. For example, I just raised all of our entry level salaries by 20% last week.

Need a 56-year-old with no experience?

[Bob Green]

Yes, I think Biden would receive a significantly larger percentage of independent and moderate votes. I believe those are the voters most likely to determine our next POTUS. I don't suspect Sander's supporters would walk away from Biden as much as they did HRC. OTOH, I think there are a significant number of Biden supporters who would not vote for Sanders.

I agree; however, Biden’s negative is his age. Significant numbers of voters consider him to be too old. Sanders and Warren are too left and too old for the independent and moderate voters who will decide the election.

[dudog84]

I agree; however, Biden’s negative is his age. Significant numbers of voters consider him to be too old. Sanders and Warren are too left and too old for the independent and moderate voters who will decide the election.

He's 3 years older than Trump and appears to be in far better shape. Age would become an irrelevant factor in the general election.

[Jeffrey]

Need a 56-year-old with no experience?

Interestingly, our company/industry is experiencing relatively little wage growth in our mid and upper level positions. OTOH, that's mostly where the wage growth was for the last two decades. For example, I'm definitely overpaid!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I agree; however, Biden’s negative is his age. Significant numbers of voters consider him to be too old. Sanders and Warren are too left and too old for the independent and moderate voters who will decide the election.

Biden, Sanders, and Trump are all 73-77 years old. That's roughly a wash for most of the electorate if they are head to head.

[Bob Green]

Age would become an irrelevant factor in the general election.

Perhaps but he has to make it to the general election.

[duke79]

I'm curious - based on Sanders being further left and Biden being more centrist? Or something else?

I'd love to watch Sanders/Trump debates.

LOL, yea, they could stream those debates on pay-per-view and many people would pay to watch that (and I bet DT would try to do something like that, IF he were getting a piece of the action!).

In reality, though, I just don't see Bernie ending up as the nominee (but who really knows in this crazy election cycle?). And I think it would be a disaster for the Dems - a little like 1972 and George McGovern.

If I were betting money at this point in time, I'd put my bets on either E. Warren, K. Harris or Joe Biden - IMHO the three most viable and electable candidates.

[Jeffrey]

I agree; however, Biden’s negative is his age. Significant numbers of voters consider him to be too old. Sanders and Warren are too left and too old for the independent and moderate voters who will decide the election.

True, this race will be run with electric scooters. OTOH, I suspect the independent and moderate voters are also an aging group.

[Wander]

He's 3 years older than Trump and appears to be in far better shape. Age would become an irrelevant factor in the general election.

I think it's incredibly optimistic to think that Trump wouldn't try to use Biden's age against him, possibly successfully, just because it doesn't fit the facts of their relative ages. The President is very good at branding and in fact has already starting doing it with the "Sleepy Joe" stuff.

To me, Kamala and Mayor Pete are the ones that strike the best balance between ability to beat Trump and ability to energize voters; ability to appeal to the left and ability to appeal to moderates; ability to come up with policies that help Americans and ability to clearly communicate why Trump's allegedly racist tweets or hundreds of other allegedly troubling comments are worth caring about.

[golfinesquire]

I agree; however, Biden’s negative is his age. Significant numbers of voters consider him to be too old. Sanders and Warren are too left and too old for the independent and moderate voters who will decide the election.

Not sure I agree with you on Warren. Anecdotally, I can tell you that a lot of moderate voters I know really like her. But she has to be the one to control the narrative in her candidacy, something most people have trouble doing once Trump starts to focus on them.

[JasonEvans]

I predict Biden chooses and young, minority/woman VP and says he is only planning to run for 1 term and then expects to hand things over to his popular VP (Harris, Abrams, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Duckworth, Booker, Gillbrand, or maybe Buttigieg).

[dudog84]

Perhaps but he has to make it to the general election.

Oh, I read your post as referencing the general election. You did mention independents.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I predict Biden chooses and young, minority/woman VP and says he is only planning to run for 1 term and then expects to hand things over to his popular VP (Harris, Abrams, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Duckworth, Booker, Gillbrand, or maybe Buttigieg).

Has anyone ever run saying they would only be there for four years? If so, was their campaign successful? (I'm assuming no, or they backtracked on that promise.)

[Bob Green]

Oh, I read your post as referencing the general election. You did mention independents.

Yes I did so you’re correct.

[duke79]

I predict Biden chooses and young, minority/woman VP and says he is only planning to run for 1 term and then expects to hand things over to his popular VP (Harris, Abrams, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Duckworth, Booker, Gillbrand, or maybe Buttigieg).

This may be a smart strategy on the part of Biden, IF he gets the nomination. I would guess he is going to have to pick a woman and a minority (not another while male like Mayor Pete) to satisfy that part of the Democratic base. I would place money on K. Harris, if he is the nominee.

[Acymetric]

I predict Biden chooses and young, minority/woman VP and says he is only planning to run for 1 term and then expects to hand things over to his popular VP (Harris, Abrams, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Duckworth, Booker, Gillbrand, or maybe Buttigieg).

Has anyone ever run saying they would only be there for four years? If so, was their campaign successful? (I'm assuming no, or they backtracked on that promise.)

I would guess no to the first question (so N/A to the second). I can't imagine this happening. You have an incumbent president, you run them unless something seriously damaging has occurred during their first term.

This may be a smart strategy on the part of Biden, IF he gets the nomination. I would guess he is going to have to pick a woman and a minority (not another while male like Mayor Pete) to satisfy that part of the Democratic base. I would place money on K. Harris, if he is the nominee.

It might be a smart strategy for Biden to pull in support from younger or more liberal folks, but I don't think it would be a good strategy for the Dems come time for the 2024 election.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I would guess no to the first question (so N/A to the second). I can't imagine this happening. You have an incumbent president, you run them unless something seriously damaging has occurred during their first term.



It might be a smart strategy for Biden to pull in support from younger or more liberal folks, but I don't think it would be a good strategy for the Dems come time for the 2024 election.

Or... Given the shifting demographics, it could be genius.

[dudog84]

Monmouth (538 rates them A+) has Biden leading in South Carolina by 27 points. That primary is 4 days before Super Tuesday, which is especially super next year, and a big win by Biden could affect a lot of votes a few days later. The Ds need to get this primary over sooner rather than later.

In Ohio, Quinnipiac (A- by 538) has Biden beating Trump by 8. No other D is plus against Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I discussed upthread the idiotic DNC policy of proportional allotment of delegates. You don't play the regular season by one set of rules, and the Super Bowl by another. If Biden comes out of Super Tuesday with about 40%, and Sanders-Warren-Harris are 15% to 20% (this isn't Buttigieg's year, I cap him at 5%), this could drag out and that is not good for the Ds. Sanders won't drop out, obviously. I doubt Warren does. Does Biden strike an early deal with Harris for the VP slot (which usually doesn't come out until close to the convention) to get her to pledge her delegates to him? A brokered convention would be a disaster for the Ds.

[Chard]

Curious to see how most feel about the role big tech is playing and going to play in the race. There have been some developments recently that are worth discussion.

Yesterday, Tulsi Gabbard filed a lawsuit against Google.

Gabbard, a Democrat from Hawaii who has called for the breakup of big tech companies, was among the top search topics on Google during and after the debate. Gabbard’s campaign decided after the debate that “now is the time we can get our message out there by buying search ads,’’ said attorney Brian Dunne, who is representing Gabbard. But “just as her Google traffic was spiking, her Google ad account was taken offline,’’ he said.


With the Gabbard campaign’s Google advertising account suspended, it “had no possibility of putting up Google ads," Dunne said.

"They had no ability to really speak to the people who wanted to hear from her’’ on Google’s platform, he said.

“To this day,’’ the campaign alleges in the lawsuit, “Google has not provided a straight answer” for the suspension.

Last week the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution held hearings about big tech censorship. Dr. Robert Epstein testified about his research on the effect that big tech can have on the coming election. Videos below and a pdf transcript available here.




Could we be seeing a repeat of the tilting of the scales we saw in the last Democrat primary, albeit from a different source? Could this sour Democrat voters in the general against the nominee? The Gabbard campaign seems to have experienced this already.

Dr. Epstein touches on the topic of equal time and I recall another poster earlier mentioning it. There is no way to currently quantify it.

Brave new world.

[Chard]

Additional testimony vid: