2020 Presidential Election

[Reilly]

... I have no doubt you will see those in abundance through election day ...

This is my favorite political bumper sticker story. Kids were very young, it was October of a presidential election year, and we had a long conversation over Saturday breakfast about the presidential election and how people pick sides and put stickers on their cars and signs in the yards. Took the customary trip to the drycleaner, and I said, "let's count bumper stickers and signs." In the 10-minute drive along secondary streets through residential neighborhoods, we did not see a *single* sticker or sign ... until we pulled into the lot in front of the cleaners, and one car had several so I got excited, and there was one of our U.S Senators getting out of the car to go drop off the drycleaning.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I agree, it’ll be close, even if Biden gets the nomination. I think Trump is again being underrated. Trump will benefit watching the primaries and learning new ways to attack and hurt Biden. There’s a very good reason most incumbents have won a second term the last 50 years. Trump’s economy is many levels above Carter’s in 1980 and he will play the game better than Bush did in 1992.

I think Biden's advantages are:

- he is leading with the Trump is revolting, reclaim America's soul theme that plays to Democrats, moderates, and ex/never-Trump Republicans.
- he is not deep-diving in very liberal policies that play to the left-wing of the Democratic party, but scare moderates.
- he can take claim for the Obama economy and argue that Trump just got out in front of a parade. He can make the case that the economic curves turned in the right direction 10 years ago, not 4 years ago. More jobs were created in the last 21 months of Obama's presidency than the first 21 months of Trump's.
- he is from a swing state and can play the scrappy, working, middle class role pretty well.

I think his disadvantages are:

- many Democrats want someone new.
- many Democrats want someone more liberal.
- he will have gaffes.

I imagine he would want to balance out the ticket with someone much younger, diverse, and with charisma.

[dudog84]

How are Sanders and Warren being disruptive, though (other than just having different opinions)? They're really just dry policy nerds. Obviously they have a different theory of the election and should be allowed to pursue it. They're not going to drop out just because you think they would lose to Trump or something.

Also -- and this is crucial -- in 2016, Sanders routinely outpolled Hillary in the hypothetical head-to-head with Trump. The "far left" are not going to trust any "moderate left" who wants to lecture them about the good of the party.

Actually, Lizzie (that's what us close friends call her) just called me this morning to ask my opinion.

Yeah, and we saw how great those polls worked out in 2016.

Finally, the "far left" is going to vote against Trump no matter who is the D nominee. Can I have a ham sandwich? The "moderate left" not so much.

[dudog84]

Well, while there is some genius in the Senate preventing the tyranny of the majority I really wonder about how it will work if the coasts continue to get more and more populous and people flee the middle. At this moment, it is technically possible for 12% of the population to elect 60% of the senate. It is easy to see how that could become increasingly problematic if the priorities of that 12% (or, more realistically 20-25%) got almost equal federal power as the rest of the nation.

It's far worse than that. Obviously, the Electoral College elects the President. The Senate confirms all executive appointments (Cabinet, etc.), but even more importantly confirms judges. So that minority controls two and a half of the three branches of government.

Start thinking about the tyranny of the minority.

[Acymetric]

Actually, Lizzie (that's what us close friends call her) just called me this morning to ask my opinion.

Yeah, and we saw how great those polls worked out in 2016.

Finally, the "far left" is going to vote against Trump no matter who is the D nominee. Can I have a ham sandwich? The "moderate left" not so much.

I don't think that assumption is a safe one, and the results of the previous election would seem to bear that out.

[bundabergdevil]

Well, while there is some genius in the Senate preventing the tyranny of the majority I really wonder about how it will work if the coasts continue to get more and more populous and people flee the middle. At this moment, it is technically possible for 12% of the population to elect 60% of the senate. It is easy to see how that could become increasingly problematic if the priorities of that 12% (or, more realistically 20-25%) got almost equal federal power as the rest of the nation.

Yeah, exactly what I was saying. With demographic changes and our system's design, we may be in for a prolonged period where the political minority has an over weighted representation in the presidency and senate. It'll adjust, I think, in the long term as it has in the past. I just am constantly amazed at our founding fathers attempt to create a system that could flex and stretch and self-correct to account for various tyrannical and demagogue impulses. Suffice to say, I did not appreciate their genius in high school civics...

I hope the moderators move this post to the Ymm, Crabcakes thread. God, I hate when people stray off topic.

Whoa. Please go easy, I have a soft shell!

images.jpg

[dudog84]

I don't think that assumption is a safe one, and the results of the previous election would seem to bear that out.

I don't think 2016 has any bearing on 2020 at all. HRC is not running this time.

[Reilly]

... Please go easy, I have a soft shell! ...

I was just joshing -- don't feel blue.

[esl]

I hope the moderators move this post to the Ymm, Crabcakes thread. God, I hate when people stray off topic.

I think you’re just being shellfish.

[OldPhiKap]

FoxNews Poll:

BEA9418C-A961-4576-AA00-8159CA0CB4B1.jpg

That’s why there are Dems that support Biden.

[howardlander]

FoxNews Poll:

BEA9418C-A961-4576-AA00-8159CA0CB4B1.jpg

That’s why there are Dems that support Biden.

Exactly.

[OldPhiKap]

Exactly.

9AD5D6E6-29ED-4BEF-8C4D-12E6C25AD86F.jpg

Which supports my gut thesis — even Democrats as a whole do not want a revolution so much as a win.

[OldPhiKap]

And to confirm what several on here have said:

The new poll, released Thursday, also finds some of the policy proposals discussed in the Democratic primary are out of sync with the broader electorate.

Getting rid of private health insurance and moving to a government-run health care system is favored among Democratic primary voters by a 30-point margin, but opposed among all voters by 5 points.

By a 15-point margin, primary voters favor providing health insurance coverage to undocumented immigrants. Voters overall oppose that by a 28-point margin.

Decriminalizing entering the U.S. without proper documentation is favored among primary voters by 10 points and opposed by voters by 23 points.

There is one proposal both groups like -- changing the health care system so every American can buy into Medicare. Democratic primary voters favor that by 64 points and voters by 42.

By a 14-point margin, voters say Democrats would do a better job than Republicans handling health care, and they have a favorable view of Obamacare by a 9-point margin (that climbs to +69 among Democrats).

Meanwhile, there is a 19-point gap between voters overall and Democratic primary voters on the U.S. moving more toward socialism: 53 percent of primary voters say that would be a good thing compared to 34 percent of all voters.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...tic-nomination

Or if you want to go right to the poll: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-july-25

[Indoor66]

Yeah, exactly what I was saying. With demographic changes and our system's design, we may be in for a prolonged period where the political minority has an over weighted representation in the presidency and senate. It'll adjust, I think, in the long term as it has in the past. I just am constantly amazed at our founding fathers attempt to create a system that could flex and stretch and self-correct to account for various tyrannical and demagogue impulses. Suffice to say, I did not appreciate their genius in high school civics...

I think they call that thought process creating checks and balances. They had some pretty good ideas, workable ideas, and didn't have Google either.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I think Biden's advantages are:

- he is leading with the Trump is revolting, reclaim America's soul theme that plays to Democrats, moderates, and ex/never-Trump Republicans.
- he is not deep-diving in very liberal policies that play to the left-wing of the Democratic party, but scare moderates.
- he can take claim for the Obama economy and argue that Trump just got out in front of a parade. He can make the case that the economic curves turned in the right direction 10 years ago, not 4 years ago. More jobs were created in the last 21 months of Obama's presidency than the first 21 months of Trump's.
- he is from a swing state and can play the scrappy, working, middle class role pretty well.

I think his disadvantages are:

- many Democrats want someone new.
- many Democrats want someone more liberal.
- he will have gaffes.

I imagine he would want to balance out the ticket with someone much younger, diverse, and with charisma.

Very good analysis. The Dems are going to have to be like the Republicans and learn to deal with the gaffes. Even Trump's biggest supporters will admit he has had some cringe-worthy gaffes, but they accept them and move on. The Dems need to learn to do the same. My favorite phrase for many aspects of my life lately has been "don't let perfection be the enemy of the good" and I think that applies here. If the Dems keep nitpicking and shooting at each other for the next year, they will hand the election to Trump. And if they keep aiming for the median position of members of their party rather than the median positions of the overall electorate (particularly the electorate in the key states), they will hand the election to Trump.

The traditional rules of engagement are no longer applicable, and the same applies for the traditional norms of behavior. The Dems need to accept this and adapt accordingly.

[Reilly]

I wonder how much attention this issue will get from the presidential candidates -- and if it'll sway or motivate any voters -- if the federal government does carry out five executions in December/January:
https://www.rollcall.com/news/whiteh...ent=07/26/2019

I was surprised to read that only 78 people had been sentenced to death under federal (not state) law, and only three had actually been executed, since 1988. Both numbers surprised me as being low, even though I realize most criminal cases are state law matters.

[Jeffrey]

FoxNews Poll:

BEA9418C-A961-4576-AA00-8159CA0CB4B1.jpg

That’s why there are Dems that support Biden.

The scenario I doubt is that Sanders has that good of odds against Trump. I suspect Trump would love to face Sanders and has concerns about facing Biden.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The scenario I doubt is that Sanders has that good of odds against Trump. I suspect Trump would love to face Sanders and has concerns about facing Biden.

I'm curious - based on Sanders being further left and Biden being more centrist? Or something else?

I'd love to watch Sanders/Trump debates.

[Jeffrey]

I may eat these words in 16 months or so, but I'm predicting (NOW) that DT will win the election easily (with the following two assumptions - the economy (and the stock market) continue to be strong AND he does not do something incredibly stupid - i.e., start lobbing nuclear weapons into North Korea, etc). I still think the Dems' (whomever they nominate) best hope is if the economy begins to tank in the next year or so and people lose faith in what DT and Republicans in Congress have done (see George H.W. Bush in 1992!). Given the low unemployment numbers, the strong stock market and continued GDP growth, I just don't see people voting to change the captain of the ship (and I readily understand that many people in the country DETEST Donald Trump). Again, I wouldn't bet my life savings on this outcome but I'd bet a fair amount of money.

IMO, the insurance rate cut by the Fed, next week, will support the economy. If Trump cuts a deal with China, in the first half of 2020, then the economy will be further supported going into the elections.

FWIW, the finance industry is definitely seeing lower level wage growth. For example, I just raised all of our entry level salaries by 20% last week.

[Jeffrey]

I'm curious - based on Sanders being further left and Biden being more centrist?

Yes, I think Biden would receive a significantly larger percentage of independent and moderate votes. I believe those are the voters most likely to determine our next POTUS. I don't suspect Sander's supporters would walk away from Biden as much as they did HRC. OTOH, I think there are a significant number of Biden supporters who would not vote for Sanders.