2020 Presidential Election

[Furniture]

As of this AM, I see no significant coverage of this story on FoxNews.com.

Best I can tell, some of the conservative outlets are focusing on the story confirming Trump was telling the truth about being under audit while attacking the leaker’s claims to have legal access to the records.

Its the second story on Fox News now. It’s titled “Everything was wrong”. The lead title and Trumps pivot I suppose is “Where’s Hunter”.

It looks like Hunter will be brought up by trump in the debates. Will a hard push on Hunter move the needle for independents? Is it a good idea for Trump to start a conversation on Family business dealings?

[Jeffrey]

There are 330,000,000 people in the United States. About 110,000,000 people have arrest records. 2010 was the last number I could find and it was estimated about 20,000,000 felons at that time. That is 6%. It's not out of order for a state like FL to have 7.3%, slightly above average.

The US is the most imprisoned and criminalized population in the world. Granted, some countries have alternative ways of dealing with criminals that don't leave a felony population to deal with...but I'm not sure we should emulate that behavior. There is a reason many Democrats have issues with Harris as the VP pick given her prior role in the criminal justice system.

Thanks, I just found similar figures. Looks like Reagan really had an affect, the absolute number of people with felony convictions increased threefold between 1980 and 2010.

[LasVegas]

Big NYT/SIENA poll for Biden in NE02. Leading trump 48 to 41 among likely voters.

[Jeffrey]

Vera Institute of Justice › stat...PDF
Incarceration Trends in Florida - Vera Institute of Justice

Tampa, Alligator Alley towards Ft Myers and Panhandle felon rate increasing over the last decade. Great stuff in this document. Ends in 2015 though.

Thanks, I’ll check it out.

[JasonEvans]

As of this AM, I see no significant coverage of this story on FoxNews.com.

Best I can tell, some of the conservative outlets are focusing on the story confirming Trump was telling the truth about being under audit while attacking the leaker’s claims to have legal access to the records.

I saw a pretty funny tweet on this:

ABC: His taxes
CNN: His taxes
Animal Planet: His taxes
Cartoon Network: His taxes
FOX News: Hearty fall soup recipes
Hearty Fall Soup Channel: His taxes

[ClemmonsDevil]

Its the second story on Fox News now. It’s titled “Everything was wrong”. The lead title and Trumps pivot I suppose is “Where’s Hunter”.

It looks like Hunter will be brought up by trump in the debates. Will a hard push on Hunter move the needle for independents? Is it a good idea for Trump to start a conversation on Family business dealings?

It hasn't landed yet. Every family has a disappointment. Hunter is theirs. I really do think his job was problematic, just not illegal and no evidence that it affected US policy. As a matter of fact, there is pretty sound evidence his father went after Burisma in a way that would be problematic if you are Hunter. As an aside, if you can't figure out who that person is in your family...it's you (not you specifically Furniture!!!!! For the group).

[bundabergdevil]

Should be an interesting first debate. Campaign sniping has turned distinctly scatological.

[bundabergdevil]

By the way, the single most important line in the NY Times story on the taxes may be this:

This story ain't going away any time soon.

Yes, I infer from that the biggest revelations may not have been made yet, too. I strongly suspect Woodward has more audio and that will come out in the coming weeks.


As others have noted, with the Burisma report not hitting and the Durham report likely a no go, what are the potential surprises left laying in wait for Biden?

[freshmanjs]

Yes, I infer from that the biggest revelations may not have been made yet, too. I strongly suspect Woodward has more audio and that will come out in the coming weeks.


As others have noted, with the Burisma report not hitting and the Durham report likely a no go, what are the potential surprises left laying in wait for Biden?

I don't really think DT has the discipline to hold back a surprise. If there were anything else, he'd have blurted it out by now. Of course, there is always the chance someone will give a surprise gift like Comey did.

[fisheyes]

I don't really think DT has the discipline to hold back a surprise. If there were anything else, he'd have blurted it out by now. Of course, there is always the chance someone will give a surprise gift like Comey did.

Which candidate is more likely to "pass" the marshmallow test! LOL!

[Furniture]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ug-test-debate

Biden campaign response to Trumps request for a drug test.

“Vice-President Biden intends to deliver his debate answers in words,” a Biden spokesperson told Politico. “If the president thinks his best case is made in urine he can have at it.
“We’d expect nothing less from Donald Trump, who pissed away the chance to protect the lives of 200,000 Americans when he didn’t make a plan to stop Covid-19.”

[bundabergdevil]

Latest horse race dynamics from 538.


Take home, which this esteemed group of posters knows well, below:

Trump currently has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of winning the election,1 according to our presidential forecast, even though he only has a 1 in 10 chance of winning the national popular vote. That’s, of course, due to the Electoral College, in which Trump has an edge this year.

Historically, which party enjoys an advantage in the Electoral College ebbs and flows; sometimes the Democrats benefit from it; at other times, the Republicans. But in 2020, the Electoral College is clearly boosting Trump’s odds of winning reelection.

That’s because the states that are most likely to decide the contest are somewhat more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole...

[nmduke2001]

The more I think about it the more it frustrates me that the election for the President of the United States could come down to the roughly 6 million people that decide to vote in Pennsylvania.

https://guides.libraries.psu.edu/pos.../voter-turnout


btw, I realize this is a simplistic view of things, but still...

[rsvman]

As October surprises go, the Trump tax-gate fails in two ways:

1) It's not yet October, and

2) Is anybody really surprised?

[LasVegas]

New NYT/Siena poll has Biden up 49-40 among likely voters. Yikes, bad bad news for Trump there. He has to hold onto PA. ABC/post releasing one tonight as well so we will see what that has.

[bundabergdevil]

The more I think about it the more it frustrates me that the election for the President of the United States could come down to the roughly 6 million people that decide to vote in Pennsylvania.

https://guides.libraries.psu.edu/pos.../voter-turnout


btw, I realize this is a simplistic view of things, but still...

I’m going to make a “my vote matters more than yours” shirt and pop over the border to DE and MD and see what happens!

You know, there’s probably a very specific market for snarky swing state shirts every 4 years.

[YmoBeThere]

You know, there’s probably a very specific market for snarky swing state shirts every 4 years.

For a brief period the Army used an Army of One as a recruiting slogan.

[OldPhiKap]

I’m going to make a “my vote matters more than yours” shirt and pop over the border to DE and MD and see what happens!

You know, there’s probably a very specific market for snarky swing state shirts every 4 years.

And yet, a "Hold My Beer" shirt from Florida is likely to be apt every election cycle regardless.

[bundabergdevil]

And yet, a "Hold My Beer" shirt from Florida is likely to be apt every election cycle regardless.

By the time you have finished reading this post, another Florida Man will have been left holding his friend’s beer forever. For as little as 50 cent a day you can ensure Florida Man has a coozie for that beer. Pledge now.

[sagegrouse]

For a brief period the Army used an Army of One as a recruiting slogan.

My recollection is that it was for several years -- the generals and sergeants major hated it, because the Army is all about small-unit cohesion from the squad level to the battalion. But the recruits loved it.