2020 Presidential Election

[bundabergdevil]

Key swing states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Arizona per 270toWin.

https://www.270towin.com/

Is there agreement with that list?

Sounds about right, along with the other comments. I'd read somewhere that Trumps' team thought they could turn MN red this cycle based on the same arguments they made in PA, MI, and WI. Dunno.

I have to believe the economic shock and pandemic, both of which will impact states in different ways, will create some unusual situations, most of which will disfavor Trump. Trump's decisions and performance during all of this is just going to dominate electoral decisions.

Kushner, whatever he is/does, said it pretty well at the podium the other day. Something along the lines voters deciding who they want to manage in a crisis. That question, wherever you fall, is just going to dominate and it's all going to be a referendum on Trump.

Notably, something like this also makes it MUCH easier for Biden to articulate a positive vision, something he's never excelled at.

[JasonEvans]

Key swing states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Arizona per 270toWin.

https://www.270towin.com/

Is there agreement with that list?

Those are all Trump states that might flip. Are there any Blue states that could go Red this election? I'm fairly sure New Hampshire is no more than Biden +5 or so right now. I think Minnesota might be pretty competitive too. Is Colorado at all in play? Naaah, I think not unless Trump is winning in a landslide.

So, here is my definitive list of the swing states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona, Texas, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

I'm leaving Georgia and Iowa off for now but they are probably next and if either of them are on the list then Trump is in biiiig trouble. Similarly, if Colorado or Nevada are on the list then Biden is gonna lose.

[budwom]

Those are all Trump states that might flip. Are there any Blue states that could go Red this election? I'm fairly sure New Hampshire is no more than Biden +5 or so right now. I think Minnesota might be pretty competitive too. Is Colorado at all in play? Naaah, I think not unless Trump is winning in a landslide.

So, here is my definitive list of the swing states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona, Texas, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

I'm leaving Georgia and Iowa off for now but they are probably next and if either of them are on the list then Trump is in biiiig trouble. Similarly, if Colorado or Nevada are on the list then Biden is gonna lose.

C'mon Jason, I'm looking for your quadrennial Georgia pick! If we live to be 125, we'll still be hearing that "this could be the year Georgia goes blue."

[CameronBornAndBred]

We have gotten several national polls of Trump's handling of the crisis approval but I am eager to see some key state polls on that. You know New York is probably angry with the government response but Trump was never going to even be competitive in New York. I am much more interested in seeing what his Covid numbers will look like in key swing states... some of whom probably won't be that affected by the virus but several of which will be.

Florida, which is likely to see over 6000 Covid deaths, will be an interesting one. And Texas, which is also looking at something like 6000 deaths but which is much earlier on its progression than many other states (meaning there is a lot more variance that can happen) could also be worth watching. It does not look at this time like the virus will be too awful in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, both are not even projected to run out of ICU beds during this crisis.

Not sure what you mean by "his COVID numbers".

I would be tempted to take North Carolina off that list.

I agree. Thankfully, NC is on the lower spectrum of states that have been affected. I wish I could find the link, but there was a map put out in the last day or two that was color coded, and NC was on the low end of that spectrum. (SC was higher, Va was also thankfully low.)
We've got a Dem governor, and he is going to get lots of credit for is quick action on shutting down public places, schools, and was also one of the folks who put in place a stay at home order not too long after Ca and NY had done so. Yes, NC was a swing state that went Red, but with redistricting (Asheville specifically), Governor Cooper's overall success in containing the outbreak, and the fact that Dems are going to flood the polls to oust the POTUS, I expect Trump to have a much harder time in 2020.
That's not to say I don't expect NC to be hard fought for, I just don't feel "the swing" so much as I did in 2016 and 2008.

[JasonEvans]

Not sure what you mean by "his COVID numbers".

I left out the word approval. I am interested in seeing his approval numbers on handling the COVID crisis in various swing states. We have seen national approval numbers but not state-by-state numbers.

Make sense?

[CameronBornAndBred]

I left out the word approval. I am interested in seeing his approval numbers on handling the COVID crisis in various swing states. We have seen national approval numbers but not state-by-state numbers.

Make sense?

Yep. It will be interesting, too, in how they compare in swing states with Dem governors vs Rep governors. Michigan is one that stands out.

[Bob Green]

The one that really will be a swing state this election is Texas. CNN had a late Feb poll that showed Biden up 1 and the Dallas Morning News had one at the same time that showed Trump +1. That is about as swingy as you get. No question in my mind that Texas should be on the swing state list.

When (if) Texas swings Blue the Republican Party can pack up and go home. California (55), Texas (38) and New York (29) would give the Democrats a huge edge.

[JasonEvans]

When (if) Texas swings Blue the Republican Party can pack up and go home. California (55), Texas (38) and New York (29) would give the Democrats a huge edge.

True, but Trump broke the blue wall and turned the upper Midwest red. If the GOP can maintain a hold on Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (18), that perfectly offsets losing Texas.

[budwom]

True, but Trump broke the blue wall and turned the upper Midwest red. If the GOP can maintain a hold on Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (18), that perfectly offsets losing Texas.

if Joe can't take PA, he'll lose by a landslide...(I'm not saying he necessarily will)

[bundabergdevil]

Yep. It will be interesting, too, in how they compare in swing states with Dem governors vs Rep governors. Michigan is one that stands out.

Michigan is an intriguing electoral state. Along with PA and FL, it's the one that I'm most interested in observing. Reasons below:

Florida - for the dynamic I stated up-thread. It had been trending red over the years but I'm curious to see if the ghost of Governor Scott's unemployment choices + DeSantis' hitching his coronavirus wagon to Trump's star come back to haunt the GOP.

PA - Aside from the southern states, it has one of the worst finances in the country; the states rainy day funds have already been wiped out and it's laid off 12K state employees. Unemployment claims have been north of 1M and I'd put the state's effective unemployment at 15+% already. The shale/nat gas boom up in the NE is most likely going to crater, too, because of all this. Current Governor Wolf (D) is getting high marks and Biden is popular here but it's a partisan, partisan state that hasn't been attracting many young people Interesting dynamic.

MI - HRC lost on the back of AfAm turnout in Detroit. It's going to get hammered in all of this and Trump has been outright condescending to a Governor desperately trying to get supplies for her state. 10K votes turned the state red last time. What happens this go around?

[CDu]

[/I][/B]

Michigan is an intriguing electoral state. Along with PA and FL, it's the one that I'm most interested in observing. Reasons below:

Florida - for the dynamic I stated up-thread. It had been trending red over the years but I'm curious to see if the ghost of Governor Scott's unemployment choices + DeSantis' hitching his coronavirus wagon to Trump's star come back to haunt the GOP.

PA - Aside from the southern states, it has one of the worst finances in the country; the states rainy day funds have already been wiped out and it's laid off 12K state employees. Unemployment claims have been north of 1M and I'd put the state's effective unemployment at 15+% already. The shale/nat gas boom up in the NE is most likely going to crater, too, because of all this. Current Governor Wolf (D) is getting high marks and Biden is popular here but it's a partisan, partisan state that hasn't been attracting many young people Interesting dynamic.

MI - HRC lost on the back of AfAm turnout in Detroit. It's going to get hammered in all of this and Trump has been outright condescending to a Governor desperately trying to get supplies for her state. 10K votes turned the state red last time. What happens this go around?

Yeah, Texas is a pipe dream for Dems... for now. But Michigan, PA, and FL are certainly achievable for Dems.

[AustinDevil]

Well, thanks to some truly horrific court rulings, I guess we're going to get some sort of results out of Wisconsin today.

[budwom]

Yeah, Texas is a pipe dream for Dems... for now. But Michigan, PA, and FL are certainly achievable for Dems.

Texas will turn blue when it holds its breath for 10 minutes, and not a moment sooner. Same for Jawja.

[Devilwin]

NC won't flip. No way.

[JasonEvans]

Texas will turn blue when it holds its breath for 10 minutes, and not a moment sooner. Same for Jawja.

NC won't flip. No way.

Can I just ask folks to do something to back up statements like these. While I too am skeptical about the flipability of some of these states that have been pretty consistently Red since the 2000 election, there is no question that we are seeing polls that indicate they are very much in play this time around.

Look I doubt any of us felt confident Trump would win Michigan or Pennsylvania 4 years ago... but he did. Based on what we are seeing from the polls and based on the results of the 2018 congressional elections, I suspect several "safe Red" states are going to be battlegrounds this fall.

-Jason "of course, I'm not sure anyone can project anything at this point as the virus will likely shape Americans views of the President in some pretty fundamental ways" Evans

[Bob Green]

NC won't flip. No way.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...hCarolina.html

[OldPhiKap]

Bill Clinton carried Georgia in ‘92, against a very popular Republican incumbent whose economy went to hell six months before the election.

And Georgia has a lot more Northern transplants than it did back then.

[budwom]

Bill Clinton carried Georgia in ‘92, against a very popular Republican incumbent whose economy went to hell six months before the election.

And Georgia has a lot more Northern transplants than it did back then.

that was then...a lot of things were different 28 years ago..

[budwom]

p.s. Ross Perot got 13% of the Georgia vote in 1992, the vast majority of which would have gone to Bush had Perot not been on the ballot. Fluke.

[Devilwin]

Get out and talk to people. I never pay the polls much attention. HRC was stunned she lost. I predicted here Trump would win, and he did. My formula was simple, and almost childish in its simplicity. I was still running for Fedex, so I just started paying attention to bumper stickers and yard signs, saw about a ten to one Trump advantage. Silly, I know, but it worked..lol And Joe just doesn't look good at this point, stumbling over words and looking confused. I would be shocked if Biden won.
I am on several hunting and fishing sites, and trust me, there it's not even close.. I just hope whoever wins we can be civil to each other when it's over. This Parkinson's afflicting me has made me see things in a different light. Americans should not hate each other.Not agreeing on politics is no reason to hate people.