2020 Presidential Election

[OldPhiKap]

Kentucky says, “Hold my mint julep.” https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/university-of-kentucky-1989/applying ]96% acceptance rate[/url].

-jk

Wow!!!! You have to opt out of UK it looks like!

Maybe if their bbq didn’t suck they’d get more demand there.

[YmoBeThere]

Kentucky says, “Hold my mint julep.” 96% acceptance rate.

-jk

Wow!!!! You have to opt out of UK it looks like!

That 4% rejection rate puts them in the "more selective" category. I wonder how they would be classified if they increased their rejection rate by 25%?

[Bluedog]

Kentucky says, “Hold my mint julep.” 96% acceptance rate.

-jk

Something doesn't add up...I assume the "early acceptance rate" is misreported:
"University of Kentucky admissions is more selective with an acceptance rate of 96% and an early acceptance rate of 55.4%"

How is 96% "more selective"?!?

[ClemmonsDevil]

Something doesn't add up...I assume the "early acceptance rate" is misreported:
"University of Kentucky admissions is more selective with an acceptance rate of 96% and an early acceptance rate of 55.4%"

How is 96% "more selective"?!?

"Congratulations ma'am. It's a boy. And your child has already been accepted at the University of Kentucky."

[JasonEvans]

We were talking about when the state was called. Butterfly ballots and hanging chads only became apparent later. Calls are not made based on exit polls.

I do not know your background and knowledge base on this stuff but I have been a part of a large TV network's political coverage, specifically in the area of polling. I can assure you that exit polls are a factor in calling a state for a candidate. I can tell you with absolute certainty that one of the reasons for the incorrect call on Florida in 2000 was the exit polls that thought the state was a few thousand votes more for Gore than it ended up being due to the confusion over the butterfly ballot.

[dudog84]

I do not know your background and knowledge base on this stuff but I have been a part of a large TV network's political coverage, specifically in the area of polling. I can assure you that exit polls are a factor in calling a state for a candidate. I can tell you with absolute certainty that one of the reasons for the incorrect call on Florida in 2000 was the exit polls that thought the state was a few thousand votes more for Gore than it ended up being due to the confusion over the butterfly ballot.

Then they are even dumber than I thought. A few thousand votes out of 6 million cast and they're making their call? It's outrageous to make such an important announcement based upon exit polling. Imagine if we didn't even bother with elections, on November 3 let's just average the polls. Except Rasmussen.

I was here. I distinctly remember the call being made before polls even closed in the panhandle. It is absolutely taboo to call the race before the polls close. You see it every single time (except that time). "The polls just closed in ___________ and we're projecting the winner in (said state) to be ____________."

Anyway, enough about 2000. Whatever. They learned their lesson, it hasn't been done since.

[acdevil]

Then they are even dumber than I thought. A few thousand votes out of 6 million cast and they're making their call? It's outrageous to make such an important announcement based upon exit polling. Imagine if we didn't even bother with elections, on November 3 let's just average the polls. Except Rasmussen.

I was here. I distinctly remember the call being made before polls even closed in the panhandle. It is absolutely taboo to call the race before the polls close. You see it every single time (except that time). "The polls just closed in ___________ and we're projecting the winner in (said state) to be ____________."

Anyway, enough about 2000. Whatever. They learned their lesson, it hasn't been done since.

Jason didn’t say that they make the call based on exit polls. He said it’s a factor.

From what I understand, they basically watch the actuals come in and compare them to exit polling. If they are matching up, it’s easier to make the call. If they are diverging, they wait for more and more actuals to come in.

I think they have changed their protocol a bit since that snafu to require more evidence/larger margins to make calls.

[PackMan97]

Jason didn’t say that they make the call based on exit polls. He said it’s a factor.

From what I understand, they basically watch the actuals come in and compare them to exit polling. If they are matching up, it’s easier to make the call. If they are diverging, they wait for more and more actuals to come in.

I think they have changed their protocol a bit since that snafu to require more evidence/larger margins to make calls.

They also look at things down to a very granular level. Turnout surging in red counties, lagging in blues, it's easier to call the race for red.

[Steven43]

I can tell you with absolute certainty that one of the reasons for the incorrect call on Florida in 2000 was the exit polls that thought the state was a few thousand votes more for Gore than it ended up being due to the confusion over the butterfly ballot.

I thought we had agreed to never again speak of such things.

[rsvman]

That link did not work for me. Looks like it is missing a colon.

That’s gonna make it really hard to digest stuff properly.

[AustinDevil]

What? Yes. You're talking about something completely different. We were talking about when the state was called. Butterfly ballots and hanging chads only became apparent later. Calls are not made based on exit polls. You know that percentage in the corner, precincts/votes (or whatever) reported? It's based on the official tallies coming in from the counties. Sure they call New York blue and Oklahoma red as soon as the polls close. Swing states are only called as the official results trickle in.

No. Sorry, but no. Remember that we are taking about 2000. Not calling based on exit polls is a *result* of the 2000 debacle, not something that existed before then. And you still haven’t provided any credible citation for the Panhandle being the issue in 2000 (because there is no such citation).

[AustinDevil]

Then they are even dumber than I thought. A few thousand votes out of 6 million cast and they're making their call? It's outrageous to make such an important announcement based upon exit polling. Imagine if we didn't even bother with elections, on November 3 let's just average the polls. Except Rasmussen.

I was here. I distinctly remember the call being made before polls even closed in the panhandle. It is absolutely taboo to call the race before the polls close. You see it every single time (except that time). "The polls just closed in ___________ and we're projecting the winner in (said state) to be ____________."

Anyway, enough about 2000. Whatever. They learned their lesson, it hasn't been done since.

Florida gets called *all the time* before the Panhandle closes. Texas gets called before El Paso closes. That is a different problem than what happened in 2000.

[sagegrouse]

"Congratulations ma'am. It's a boy. And your child has already been accepted at the University of Kentucky."

"If you slow down too much driving through Lexington, someone will slap a diploma on your windshield." Apologies to the late Lewis Grizzard.

[jimsumner]

Florida gets called *all the time* before the Panhandle closes. Texas gets called before El Paso closes. That is a different problem than what happened in 2000.

Not political but somewhere along the line the United States should have figured out a way to make the Florida panhandle or a sizable chunk of it a part of Alabama. There are several n/s flowing rivers that would have made a natural border.

[SouthernDukie]

Not political but somewhere along the line the United States should have figured out a way to make the Florida panhandle or a sizable chunk of it a part of Alabama. There are several n/s flowing rivers that would have made a natural border.

Good Lord, no! Then Florida would truly be a “Northern” state. The panhandle is critical for us Southerners living in FL.

[sagegrouse]

Not political but somewhere along the line the United States should have figured out a way to make the Florida panhandle or a sizable chunk of it a part of Alabama. There are several n/s flowing rivers that would have made a natural border.

Good Lord, no! Then Florida would truly be a “Northern” state. The panhandle is critical for us Southerners living in FL.

There's a reason the capital of Florida is only about 20 miles from the Alabama state line: all the population was in the north. South Florida didn't really begin to grow fast until the 1920's. The population of Dade County (Miami) was under 12,000 in 1910 and grew 100 times to 1,267,000 in 1970; it has since doubled.

Are there any examples of states moving capitals to reflect a much different population distribution? I know there was a plan to move the capital of Alaska from the isolated panhandle city of Juneau to someplace near Anchorage. Didn't happen.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Not political but somewhere along the line the United States should have figured out a way to make the Florida panhandle or a sizable chunk of it a part of Alabama. There are several n/s flowing rivers that would have made a natural border.

You could likely fairly easily extend the eastern Alabama border down to the Gulf. But then Pensacola would be in Alabama, so all of the military folks who serve there couldn't claim FL residency and get the income tax break for the rest of their time they are in the military. And then the Florabama bar that literally sits on the border near Pensacola would not be nearly as cool.

Today was the first day of early voting here in NY. I know many people who waited for several hours to vote, which is particularly impressive given that most of them were not voting in any competitive races. There is one competitive house race in Staten Island/Brooklyn (the advertising is vicious - reminds me of an argument during the show Jersey Shore), and a few in some suburban house districts. I am hoping to go one day during the week. We are assigned to a specific early voting site - mine is not bad but it is not too convenient. Unfortunately, it is not MSG, which would have been cool.

[acdevil]

Crazy - my site up in westchester had huge lines all day and I don’t think we have a single competitive race. I’m planning on going during the week under the assumption that the lines will be shorter during work hours.

[bundabergdevil]

A really good, in depth article on WI and MI polling and ground games. Both campaigns are saying that the race in those states is much tighter than public polling indicates. Couple money excerpts, one that should buoy Republicans and one Democrats below. I've seen the argument made a few times now that one of the reasons Republicans are doing well with voter registrations is because they didn't stop the person-to-person ground stuff because of COVID whereas the Dems did.



For the Dems:

Barnes said she tells anyone who will listen to ignore the polls, but acknowledges Democrats are in a much better spot than four years ago. Biden and his running mate California Sen. Kamala Harris are campaigning much more in Michigan and the state party has a larger infrastructure and has been far better organized, she said.

“In 2016, those of us on the ground in Michigan knew it was going to be very close and we were very nervous that the numbers would not be there and it turned out that we were right,” Barnes said. “It’s just night and day this time around with having this operation on the ground, having the Biden campaign actively campaigning here, having the candidates come here. It’s completely different.”

For the Reps:

In some states where voters are registered by party, including Pennsylvania and Florida, data has shown Republicans narrowing the gap in registrations with Democrats, largely because the GOP continued knocking on doors and holding event throughout the summer.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, voters do not register by party so it’s harder to get a feel for whether one side has an advantage, the pollsters and party leaders all agreed. Still, Hitt, the GOP chair in Wisconsin, said his party has put a greater emphasis on it this time, and some analyses have shown voter registrations dropping off at a slower rate in counties won by Trump four years ago.

[jimsumner]

If you are way ahead you are going to say you aren't because you don't want to depress the down-ballot voting.

If you are way behind you are going to say you aren't because you don't want to depress the down-ballot voting.