2020 Presidential Election

[jafarr1]

I certainly understand the tactic, but I believe our courts will get it right.

The problems is that "right" has many more shades of meaning than is immediately evident. For example, would it be "right" for the SCOTUS to come up with a new interpretation / enforcement of election laws in the week leading up to the election? That could lead to legitimate voters who followed the rules as they were presented to not get their votes counted, as they may have no remedy, depending on the decision.

Let's further take the specific scenario where the SCOTUS makes decisions that swing the election in favor of a president who nominated three of its members. Inevitably, there would be the perception among partisans that the SCOTUS was playing favorites, which would further impact a number of people's trust of the US election system (as well as the SCOTUS itself). Is getting everything technically right worth those impacts?

My hope is that the SCOTUS uses this election cycle as an opportunity to clean up and clarify election laws - which badly needs to happen as states have tried to adapt to the realities presented by the pandemic - but delays enforcement of decisions that would result in votes cast in good faith from being tossed out until the next election cycle. However, I strongly suspect that won't be the case, and that we are going to see a lot of partisan ugliness over the next few weeks cloaked in the guise of "getting things right".

[Phredd3]

In NC you can check on the status of your ballot. If it's been accepted it will count.

https://northcarolina.ballottrax.net/voter/

Personally, I prefer to deal directly with the voter search tools at https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/, but yes, I'm aware of being able to check status, and our votes are showing as accepted. But if, as the GOP alleges, they were accepted in contravention of the law, the question remains as to whether or not they will be counted.

I can't imagine what the court challenge is? To the law itself, that changed the sign-in? What's the remedy? All absentee ballots be tossed?

The challenge is to the authority of the NCSBE to make any changes "in contravention of state law". The GOP interpretation of that would effectively ensure that the NCSBE has no authority whatsoever to make any adjustments for emergencies, despite having used that authority multiple times in the past to cope with hurricanes and other natural disasters. It's a far-fetched reading, to my way of thinking, since the statute authorizes the Board to make changes during a time of disaster, and it is isn't clear what those changes could even be if they didn't involve things like extending deadlines and making reasonable adjustments to voting procedures.

The fact that this authority is even being challenged is quite remarkable, and just to restate, I think the chances of the courts agreeing with that reading are negligible.

But not zero.

[PackMan97]

Personally, I prefer to deal directly with the voter search tools at https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/, but yes, I'm aware of being able to check status, and our votes are showing as accepted. But if, as the GOP alleges, they were accepted in contravention of the law, the question remains as to whether or not they will be counted.


The challenge is to the authority of the NCSBE to make any changes "in contravention of state law". The GOP interpretation of that would effectively ensure that the NCSBE has no authority whatsoever to make any adjustments for emergencies, despite having used that authority multiple times in the past to cope with hurricanes and other natural disasters. It's a far-fetched reading, to my way of thinking, since the statute authorizes the Board to make changes during a time of disaster, and it is isn't clear what those changes could even be if they didn't involve things like extending deadlines and making reasonable adjustments to voting procedures.

The fact that this authority is even being challenged is quite remarkable, and just to restate, I think the chances of the courts agreeing with that reading are negligible.

But not zero.

I think this is the GOP's way of saying they are down 30 to Duke at Cameron Indoor with 40 seconds left to play and Coach K just stepped out of the coaches box to high five a player and asking the ref to have Duke forfeit the game because "reasons"

Your tone in this post is far different than earlier. It really sounds like this lawsuit will be DOA. As I imagine many such lawsuits will be. It would be nice if the more ridiculous ones got their lawyers hit with contempt of court or whatever it is when you waste the courts time.

[Phredd3]

Your tone in this post is far different than earlier. It really sounds like this lawsuit will be DOA. As I imagine many such lawsuits will be. It would be nice if the more ridiculous ones got their lawyers hit with contempt of court or whatever it is when you waste the courts time.

Sorry, yes. I was...politely...not happy when I wrote before, although I did slip in (under a confusing double-negative) that I thought the odds of the lawsuit were slim. I definitely think that still. It may be the weakest elections challenge I've read, not that I'm an expert. And I hope the Court (it is currently at SCOTUS) issues some kind of written rebuke, but I think it is far more likely that they simply deny the request without an issued opinion.

[rsvman]

This, to me, is one of the great questions we need to ponder. If, as Trump and Republicans allege, there is rampant voter fraud going on in some areas, it is probably not happening in a vacuum. I mean, if Democrats are generating 100 fake ballots, they don't toss them in the box marked, "fake ballots," they toss them in with a couple hundred already legit ballots. If there are ballots that are cast illegally, they are probably, at this point, mixed in with ballots that are legit, right?

So, if you are a judge and I come to you and say that in front of me there is a pile of ballots -- like 1000 of them -- and we know some were cast illegally... what do we do with those 1000 ballots? Lets say 3 of the 1000 are bad, would anyone think it was proper to toss out 997 good ballots just to keep 3 bad ones from being counted? What about if 100 of the 1000 were fraudulent? What about if 501 were wrong?

And, just to follow the logical pattern... is there a point at which some allegation of fraud would make you think knowing the result of the entire state is impossible, therefore rendering moot every ballot cast and leaving the choice of electors up to the state legislature? If you thought 2% of ballots were questionable, would you throw out the other 98%? Cause I think that kinda thing might be what some in Trump's circle are angling to pull off.

By the way, all of this is addressing the GOP allegation that Democrats are harvesting ballots and improperly taking them to drop boxes and stuff like that. I get that ballots that come in after the deadline or in many other cases are easily distinguished from obviously legitimate ballots so this would not apply in a case like that.

I'm not a biostatistician, but I am absolutely sure that if I were one, I could make a calculation that would tell me what to do in each situation.

For example, take the one where you find out that 2% of the ballots are bogus. Would I throw out the other 98%? Depends. I would count the ballots I knew were legal, and then see what the margin between the candidates was. I would then plug into a formula that would tell me the likelihood that the 2% of ballots could actually decide the outcome. If that likelihood existed (i.e., if the counts were so close that the 2% could easily change the margin), then yes, I would throw them all out and figure out another way to get it done. If, on the other hand, my formula told me that there was only a 0.1% chance that the bogus ballots could change the outcome, I'd throw out just the 2%, and give the result of the election to the people.

This kind of stuff is not difficult math.

[Hartford Dukie]

Not at all hard to imagine that the Ossoff-Purdue race also goes to a runoff. That has happened in the past in Georgia when the Libertarian takes 1-2%. In fact, there is a real possibility that the fate of the Senate hangs on 2 Ga runoffs the first week of January. I cannot even fathom the amount of spending that would pour into the state in that case.

I meant to respond to this yesterday. There will be an unlimited amount of money spent on the one or two run-off races. Jaime Harrison I read had raised $86 million as of September 30th...he will spend $100+ million in South Carolina! One saw how Democratic activists/donor poured money into senate races across the country giving almost every Dem Senate candidate a substantial fundraising advantage.

I would expect each race in Georgia to raise at least $150 million from the Dem side, even more if control of the senate is at stake....it will be the most expensive senate race(s) ever. There will be wall to wall TV and social media ads, non-stop mail, undoubtedly door to door canvass, etc etc plus thousands and thousands of GOTV workers poured into the state in an attempt to get every last voter they think will vote for their candidate to vote.

Should be fun!

[JasonEvans]

I'm not a biostatistician, but I am absolutely sure that if I were one, I could make a calculation that would tell me what to do in each situation.

For example, take the one where you find out that 2% of the ballots are bogus. Would I throw out the other 98%? Depends. I would count the ballots I knew were legal, and then see what the margin between the candidates was. I would then plug into a formula that would tell me the likelihood that the 2% of ballots could actually decide the outcome. If that likelihood existed (i.e., if the counts were so close that the 2% could easily change the margin), then yes, I would throw them all out and figure out another way to get it done. If, on the other hand, my formula told me that there was only a 0.1% chance that the bogus ballots could change the outcome, I'd throw out just the 2%, and give the result of the election to the people.

This kind of stuff is not difficult math.

You misunderstand... in my scenario we have 1000 ballots and we know some percentage of them are bad, but not which specific ones are bad. I'm essentially asking if it is ok to throw out, for example, 950 perfectly legal and legit ballots so we can get rid of 50 bad ones. There would be no way to know which of the 1000 are legit and which are fraudulent.

But, it is not a realistic scenario anyway, more a thought exercise. In reality, the lawsuits that will seek to invalidate ballots likely will not contain conditions like I have described.

[Bluedog]

I meant to respond to this yesterday. There will be an unlimited amount of money spent on the one or two run-off races. Jaime Harrison I read had raised $86 million as of September 30th...he will spend $100+ million in South Carolina! One saw how Democratic activists/donor poured money into senate races across the country giving almost every Dem Senate candidate a substantial fundraising advantage.

I would expect each race in Georgia to raise at least $150 million from the Dem side, even more if control of the senate is at stake...it will be the most expensive senate race(s) ever. There will be wall to wall TV and social media ads, non-stop mail, undoubtedly door to door canvass, etc etc plus thousands and thousands of GOTV workers poured into the state in an attempt to get every last voter they think will vote for their candidate to vote.

Should be fun!

I wonder how much TV ads and the like REALLY move the needle. Bloomberg put that experiment to the extreme test, and came up empty handed. I'm personally skeptical that it has much of an impact. Money to influence votes of politicians already in office seems more impactful (of course, there are ethical questions there). So, maybe it's a "I backed your campaign, now you owe me" where the money has power vs. actually helping the individual get elected in the first place. (But the politician wants to re-pay those favors in some cases.)

[PackMan97]

I'm still waiting for Biden or Trump to put this race away by announcing the end of time switching between Daylight Savings and Regular time. Maybe they'll wait till after the switch this weekend?

[JasonEvans]

I think Survey Monkey limits surveys to 40 total responses and that is where we are, so here are the results of our little poll:

1. How will the Presidential race come out?
Biden landslide, 350+ EVs -12.50%
Biden comfortable win, 320-349 EVs - 40.00%
Biden safe win 300-319 EVs - 15.00%
Biden narrow win 270-299 EVs - 17.50%
Electoral college tie - 0.00%
Chaos, vote totals uncertain and we head to court - 2.50%
Trump narrow win 270-299 EVs - 5.00%
Trump clear win 300+ EVs - 7.50%

2. Will the networks call the Presidential race by 7am Wednesday morning?
Yes - 80%
No - 20%

3. Whether officially called or not, will the result of the election be clear by 11pm on election night?
Yes - 52.5%
No - 47.5%

4. Will either campaign sue to overturn the results of a state or to stop vote counting in a state?
Yes - 82.5%
No - 17.5%

5. How will the Senate come out?
Democrats win 54+ seats - 0.00%
Democrats win 52-53 seats - 22.50%
Democrats win 51-52 seats - 50.00%
50-50 senate, VP breaks the tie - 10.00%
Republicans maintain control of the Senate - 17.50%

6. The GOP needs to flip 18 seats to control the House. In the 2020 election...
Democrats will gain 10+ seats - 12.50%
Democrats will gain 1-9 seats - 67.50%
Democrats will lose 1-8 seats but maintain control - 15.00%
Democrats will lose 9-17 seats but maintain control - 2.50%
Republicans will win 18+ seats and regain control - 2.50%

7. Which candidate will win Florida?
Biden - 50%
Trump - 47.5%
2000 redux, so close that it is unclear and the courts decide - 2.5%

8. Who will win the South Carolina senate race?
Incumbent GOP Lindsay Graham - 66.67%
Challenger Dem Jamie Harrison - 33.33%

9. Who will win the North Carolina senate race?
Incumbent GOP Tom Tillis - 25.00%
Challenger Dem Cal Cunningham - 75.00%

10. Who will win the Georgia senate race
Incumbent GOP David Purdue - 60.00%
Challenger Dem John Ossoff - 40.00%

[OldPhiKap]

I think Survey Monkey limits surveys to 40 total responses and that is where we are, so here are the results of our little poll:

I'm in the majority of all except one -- so that means they are all wrong of course!

The only one I differ is that we will know by 11pm (East Coast time). Pennsylvania will take a few days to tabulate because they start late, so that would really require a clear Biden victory in Florida, Georgia, and/or NC by that time - some of which may allow for late-mailed ballots and some of which may be within the automatic recount margin.

Having said that, I'll join my friends upthread in hoping that the result -- whatever it is -- is decisive and beyond serious dispute.

[Furniture]

Meanwhile 538 is showing a narrowing Biden Lead over Trump. It’s now down to 9.1 points.

At the same time Biden’s chance of winning is up. It’s now 88 in 100.

[budwom]

Meanwhile 538 is showing a narrowing Biden Lead over Trump. It’s now down to 9.1 points.

At the same time Biden’s chance of winning is up. It’s now 88 in 100.

I guess the paradox is due to the Rasmussen effect of averaging national polls, even less reliable ones..

[tommy]

Carl Bernstein gave a telling interview Sunday and he said Senate Republicans (~10 of them) are meeting to try and figure out what to do if Trump ignores the election results (assuming he loses). There's enough in the public record about Trump campaign trying to bypass the vote and go straight to the electoral college at this point to understand how the campaign is going to retain power.

I haven't voted yet in JE's poll but I'm expecting a knock down dragged out chaotic brawl barring a clear margin by either candidate and even then...

...the real question to me is the extent to which rank and file Republicans fall behind Trump.

When have they not?

[CameronBornAndBred]

6. The GOP needs to flip 18 seats to control the House. In the 2020 election...

Democrats will lose 9-17 seats but maintain control - 2.50%
Republicans will win 18+ seats and regain control - 2.50%

I'm guessing that "2.5%" = one person. I'm curious to hear those two's reasoning.

[tommy]

From a friend of mine who is a supervisor at a Post Office in Massachussetts, when I asked her today how it was going with the mail-in ballots, and if it was overwhelming in terms of processing all of it:

"Not at all. Our facility is running smoothly and mail is getting there on time. Don't know about other places."

It's a small data point, but a data point nonetheless.

[Lord Ash]

Looks like maybe one or two in those poll results that may have voted not entirely seriously...

[CDu]

Meanwhile 538 is showing a narrowing Biden Lead over Trump. It’s now down to 9.1 points.

At the same time Biden’s chance of winning is up. It’s now 88 in 100.

I guess the paradox is due to the Rasmussen effect of averaging national polls, even less reliable ones..

It is a combination of state polling not fluctuating as much as national polling and the fact that FiveThirtyEight always factored in some chance of the race tightening based on the fundamentals. So the fact that the state polls aren’t tightening much AND that we are running out of time for a change both result in Biden’s win probability increasing.

[PackMan97]

From a friend of mine who is a supervisor at a Post Office in Massachussetts, when I asked her today how it was going with the mail-in ballots, and if it was overwhelming in terms of processing all of it:

"Not at all. Our facility is running smoothly and mail is getting there on time. Don't know about other places."

It's a small data point, but a data point nonetheless.

I remember many moons back discussing the additional burden that absentee ballots would add onto the system and the long and short of it was, "not much at all". Think of all the political mailers we are getting. I'm probably seeing 5+ a day for weeks now. One little absentee ballot sent out and back again is a drop in the bucket.

[SouthernDukie]

7. Which candidate will win Florida?
Biden - 50%
Trump - 47.5%
2000 redux, so close that it is unclear and the courts decide - 2.5%

So in other words, a coin flip.

I wish I could be as confident as many of you are in the outcome of this election. But I still fear a razor thin margin that will allow for multiple lawsuits and outrage-on-steroids from both sides.

As others have said, I do hope this election is a blowout.