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  1. #13321
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada (Ohio born and raised)
    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    I'm not sure AZ is really in play. AZ seems to have been flooded with CA transplants. You might be seeing the same effect in WI with Chicagoans.

    https://www.azcentral.com/story/opin...me/5620418002/

    Coronavirus migration is one of many lingering questions that won't convince me this is over until the last ballot is counted.
    Clinton lost it by 3.5 points and a Democrat is almost certainly going to win the Senate seat there. I donít know how much more in play it could be. Itís been trending left for awhile now and Clinton made some big strides in Maricopa county.

    And the whole California is a failed state article that is linked is probably not up to the standards of this board.

  2. #13322
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    Clinton lost it by 3.5 points and a Democrat is almost certainly going to win the Senate seat there. I donít know how much more in play it could be. Itís been trending left for awhile now and Clinton made some big strides in Maricopa county.

    And the whole California is a failed state article that is linked is probably not up to the standards of this board.
    Don't want to speak for another poster, but I think he might have meant that AZ is not in play in the Democrats' favor, so the two of you would be in agreement. The polls have been pretty good for Biden, and with the Democratic Senate candidate very popular and likely to win in a landslide, he may have some coattails of his own that might help Biden a bit as well.

    I don't think it's over in this state at all, however. Not enough of a gap, too much time remaining, and the composition of who actually shows up ( or mails in) and votes in that state seems to me to be quite uncertain.

  3. #13323
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada (Ohio born and raised)
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Don't want to speak for another poster, but I think he might have meant that AZ is not in play in the Democrats' favor, so the two of you would be in agreement. The polls have been pretty good for Biden, and with the Democratic Senate candidate very popular and likely to win in a landslide, he may have some coattails of his own that might help Biden a bit as well.

    I don't think it's over in this state at all, however. Not enough of a gap, too much time remaining, and the composition of who actually shows up ( or mails in) and votes in that state seems to me to be quite uncertain.
    Ahh, yes. I am dumb.

  4. #13324

  5. #13325
    Trump claims credit for restarting Big Ten football. Because of course he does.

    Is this the best thing to happen for him in weeks?

  6. #13326
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Trump claims credit for restarting Big Ten football. Because of course he does.

    Is this the best thing to happen for him in weeks?
    It is in Ohio. Might not be as positive in Michigan, as this was the first season in forever that they weren't going to lose to Ohio State...

  7. #13327
    Surprised that there isn't much talk on this thread about the ABC town hall with POTUS last night. Shortly after it was over Laura Ingraham called in a democratic ambush. Seems strange that someone knowingly going into a town hall for Q&A could be "ambushed" by questions being asked at a Q&A town hall.

  8. #13328
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    CNN has polls from Wisconsin and North Carolina that are also not good for Trump. CNN has Wisconsin as a 10 point margin, 52-42, and North Carolina at Biden +3, 49-46. As others have noted, it feels like Wisconsin is pretty solidly in Biden's corner at this point but North Carolina would be real trouble for him. If he managed to win Pennsylvania and held onto Florida, he would likely still almost certainly lose the election if he lost NC.
    I want to apologize for some really confusing stuff at the end of the above post. I was writing a couple different thoughts and when I went to edit I mixed some stuff up and the whole thing no longer makes any sense.

    The problems comes from this transition -- "but North Carolina would be real trouble for him." The "him" there should be Trump, not Biden. If you then read all the subsequent pronouns as referring to Trump, not Biden, then the line should make some sense.

    Really bad on my part. Sorry, folks. My main point is that NC is a major issue for Trump, not for Biden. NC could provide a path for victory for Biden in the event that Penn falls. In fact, Biden could lose PA, FL, and AZ and still win with NC (provided he gets MI and WI, which both look fairly solid for him at this point).
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #13329
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I want to apologize for some really confusing stuff at the end of the above post. I was writing a couple different thoughts and when I went to edit I mixed some stuff up and the whole thing no longer makes any sense.

    The problems comes from this transition -- "but North Carolina would be real trouble for him." The "him" there should be Trump, not Biden. If you then read all the subsequent pronouns as referring to Trump, not Biden, then the line should make some sense.

    Really bad on my part. Sorry, folks. My main point is that NC is a major issue for Trump, not for Biden. NC could provide a path for victory for Biden in the event that Penn falls. In fact, Biden could lose PA, FL, and AZ and still win with NC (provided he gets MI and WI, which both look fairly solid for him at this point).
    Trump is pounding the pavement in NC. He's coming to Fayetteville this weekend for his 4th visit. Going after both the populace and the troops in one trip.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  10. #13330
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBlue View Post
    I've read two posts today by Lord Ash (aka the Dark Lord), one on the fires in Oregon and now on Page 666. There's a deep sense of foreboding rising up in my soul. If he sporkz you, don't accept. You may not understand what you're bargaining with.
    If I start talking about UNC's stellar student-athlete academics record, you KNOW something is up...

  11. #13331
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    Surprised that there isn't much talk on this thread about the ABC town hall with POTUS last night. Shortly after it was over Laura Ingraham called in a democratic ambush. Seems strange that someone knowingly going into a town hall for Q&A could be "ambushed" by questions being asked at a Q&A town hall.
    I've seen some coverage of it, especially related to how it shows the way Trump will probably handle himself in a debate... which is to make up facts to suit his answers, the truth be damned. I think the CNN fact checker's head was going to explode talking about that thing. The Washington Post has identified close to 30 individual statements by the President during the Town Hall which earned "Four Pinocchios" for being outrageously false: https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...er-over-again/
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #13332
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I want to apologize for some really confusing stuff at the end of the above post. I was writing a couple different thoughts and when I went to edit I mixed some stuff up and the whole thing no longer makes any sense.

    The problems comes from this transition -- "but North Carolina would be real trouble for him." The "him" there should be Trump, not Biden. If you then read all the subsequent pronouns as referring to Trump, not Biden, then the line should make some sense.

    Really bad on my part. Sorry, folks. My main point is that NC is a major issue for Trump, not for Biden. NC could provide a path for victory for Biden in the event that Penn falls. In fact, Biden could lose PA, FL, and AZ and still win with NC (provided he gets MI and WI, which both look fairly solid for him at this point).
    Additionally, Trump having to work a state like NC means that he's had to move resources from elsewhere. Granted, he may have given up on MI and WI, which itself would be a troubling sign.

    The key for Biden is to keep piling on. Don't let up in states where you think you are winning only to lose them when the votes are counted.

  13. #13333
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    After a few good swing state polls (A+ rated ABC/WaPo poll gives him a 6-point lead in Wisconsin and a whopping 16-point lead in Minnesota), Biden has hit a high water mark in the 538 model at 76%. Trump is at 23% and there is a 1% chance of a tie.

    I also thought it might be worth marking some of the swing state percentages (ranked by Biden's chance of winning):

    Minnesota - Biden 87%
    Michigan - Biden 87%
    Colorado - Biden 86%
    Maine - Biden 82%
    Wisconsin - Biden 80%
    Nevada - Biden 80%
    Pennsylvania - Biden 75%
    New Hamp - Biden 73%
    Arizona - Biden 67%
    Florida - Biden 61%
    North Carolina - Biden 53%
    Ohio - Biden 45%
    Georgia - Biden 35%
    Iowa - Biden 33%

    Will be interesting to see how some of these change over time. Wisconsin was just 67% for Biden at the start of this month. Minnesota was 69% on Sept 1. It would seem that Trump hit a high water mark in the swing states a couple weeks ago but has not been faring as well lately.

    -Jason "Trump must pierce the 75%+ states to win the election... which is probably a lot of the reason the model has him at a 75%+ chance to lose" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  14. #13334
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Additionally, Trump having to work a state like NC means that he's had to move resources from elsewhere. Granted, he may have given up on MI and WI, which itself would be a troubling sign.

    The key for Biden is to keep piling on. Don't let up in states where you think you are winning only to lose them when the votes are counted.
    Agreed. If you are playing defense in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas then you have much deeper problems than those 3 States. I would have thrown everything at Arizona, Pennsylvania and Florida and assumed that I could win the Southern states. If you have lost any of those 3 Southern states odds are they aren't the tipping point state. And you will only have a 125 electoral votes at that point anyway.

  15. #13335
    As bad as that 1% tie might be, the inner anarchist in me wants to see what would happen. The only problem is I don't actually want that to happen.

  16. #13336
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    After a few good swing state polls (A+ rated ABC/WaPo poll gives him a 6-point lead in Wisconsin and a whopping 16-point lead in Minnesota), Biden has hit a high water mark in the 538 model at 76%. Trump is at 23% and there is a 1% chance of a tie.

    I also thought it might be worth marking some of the swing state percentages (ranked by Biden's chance of winning):

    Minnesota - Biden 87%
    Michigan - Biden 87%
    Colorado - Biden 86%
    Maine - Biden 82%
    Wisconsin - Biden 80%
    Nevada - Biden 80%
    Pennsylvania - Biden 75%
    New Hamp - Biden 73%
    Arizona - Biden 67%
    Florida - Biden 61%
    North Carolina - Biden 53%
    Ohio - Biden 45%
    Georgia - Biden 35%
    Iowa - Biden 33%

    Will be interesting to see how some of these change over time. Wisconsin was just 67% for Biden at the start of this month. Minnesota was 69% on Sept 1. It would seem that Trump hit a high water mark in the swing states a couple weeks ago but has not been faring as well lately.

    -Jason "Trump must pierce the 75%+ states to win the election... which is probably a lot of the reason the model has him at a 75%+ chance to lose" Evans
    Biden is likelier to win Ohio, Georgia and Iowa than Trump is to win Pennsylvania at this point.
    If Biden loses Ohio but gets the margin to around 2% then he sweeps the rest of the Midwest.

  17. #13337
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I also thought it might be worth marking some of the swing state percentages (ranked by Biden's chance of winning):

    Minnesota - Biden 87%
    Michigan - Biden 87%
    Colorado - Biden 86%
    Maine - Biden 82%
    Wisconsin - Biden 80%
    Nevada - Biden 80%
    Pennsylvania - Biden 75%
    New Hamp - Biden 73%
    Arizona - Biden 67%
    Florida - Biden 61%
    North Carolina - Biden 53%
    Ohio - Biden 45%
    Georgia - Biden 35%
    Iowa - Biden 33%

    Will be interesting to see how some of these change over time. Wisconsin was just 67% for Biden at the start of this month. Minnesota was 69% on Sept 1. It would seem that Trump hit a high water mark in the swing states a couple weeks ago but has not been faring as well lately.

    -Jason "Trump must pierce the 75%+ states to win the election... which is probably a lot of the reason the model has him at a 75%+ chance to lose" Evans
    A chart of how Biden or Trump has improved their chances in the swing states in the past month:



    Of note, Biden's improvement in Arizona is really important as 538 notes that if Biden wins Arizona, Trump has less than a 7% chance of winning the election. It may not be as important as Pennsylvania, but Arizona is a key bellwether state in this election.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #13338
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I've seen some coverage of it, especially related to how it shows the way Trump will probably handle himself in a debate... which is to make up facts to suit his answers, the truth be damned. I think the CNN fact checker's head was going to explode talking about that thing. The Washington Post has identified close to 30 individual statements by the President during the Town Hall which earned "Four Pinocchios" for being outrageously false: https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...er-over-again/
    The CNN fact checker reminded me of this

    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  19. #13339

    Anecdotal, but ...

    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    I'm not sure AZ is really in play. AZ seems to have been flooded with CA transplants. You might be seeing the same effect in WI with Chicagoans.

    https://www.azcentral.com/story/opin...me/5620418002/

    Coronavirus migration is one of many lingering questions that won't convince me this is over until the last ballot is counted.
    I live in the far, far northern burbs of Chicago about 10 miles from the Wisconsin border. There's certainly been some flux of people moving out of Illinois, but I don't know that there's been a flood of transplants to Wisconsin (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...nois-are-going (More to Wisconsin than I might have thought, FWIW)), and those that I know that have left Illinois over the last 5 years were generally far more conservative than not, small sample size and all. Illinois is eroding population and its electoral power is waning without question, but I don't know that any of that movement would begin to tip the needle anyplace else.

    I'd think the numbers in Wisconsin are more indicative of the general state of the national view of Trump and the GOPs losses as to suburban women as well as Wisconsin's move away from the Walker governorship and drift leftward state-wide.

    One more anecdote: Having spent six weekends in Wisconsin for travel baseball tourneys this summer, I can report on the the all-important yard sign count for the DBR. Rural Wisconsin appears to be as Red as ever, with Trump signs galore. Milwaukee's suburbs, however, are not nearly as Trump friendly, and there's not the same enthusiasm there was four years ago, at least as to yard signs. We were in Wisconsin quite a bit the summer before the election four years ago, and my wife and I were on a long weekend in Wisconsin about two weeks before the 2016 election, and the yard sign advantage for Trump was staggering. Should have paid closer attention.

  20. #13340
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Trump claims credit for restarting Big Ten football. Because of course he does.

    Is this the best thing to happen for him in weeks?
    Yes, but if they can't play on October 24th (and to me, that seems a longshot) what impact will it have on him?

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