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  1. #17041
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    FIFY based on the likely legal wrangling to come about whether certain mail-in ballots should count or not
    Fair, although the data Clemmons and I have cited for NC are accepted votes, not attempted. We're very likely to approach the total accepted vote total for 2016 before Nov 3, exclusive of those ballots in limbo.

  2. #17042
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Gosh, who would have thought that a 39 year old real estate investor (mostly notable for some terrible real estate investment decisions) and his New York PR buddies were not perfectly qualified to advise the President on a pandemic. I mean, it really feels like a national health crisis should be right in Kushner's wheelhouse.
    He's already solved the Middle East conflict, fixed the opioid crisis, and reformed the criminal justice system. The pandemic was a natural next step, as is his perspective on motivation within the Black community.

    Earlier, as a 25 yr old law student with no journalism experience, he bought the NY Observer, a somewhat idiosyncratic broadsheet that focused on entertainment, culture, politics, etc, and published a variety of interesting writers, the best known probably being Candace Bushnell's column that became 'Sex and the City." Within a couple of years of the purchase, its great editor (Peter Kaplan) left, and it continued its spiral through its support of Trump during the Republican primary, hiring of an editor with issues (Ken Kurson) and its discontinuation of the print edition the day after the election.

    I bring this up in this thread because while Kushner, himself, almost certainly anticipates that he'll be president one day, I can hardly imagine that Trump operatives want him to be the bloodless face of the Trump campaign in the days leading up to the final vote.

  3. #17043
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    More PA voting sitch insight about potential of blue shift:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...lection-night/

    Excerpt:
    Itís impossible to say just how much the vote may shift after election night in Pennsylvania, but the primary results in the Keystone State suggest that we should be ready for a sizable swing in the vote. And itís probably not the only battleground state that will see a blue shift of some note. For instance, Wisconsin canít begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, and Michiganís count is expected to stretch on for a few days, too

  4. #17044
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    More PA voting sitch insight about potential of blue shift:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...lection-night/

    Excerpt:
    Itís impossible to say just how much the vote may shift after election night in Pennsylvania, but the primary results in the Keystone State suggest that we should be ready for a sizable swing in the vote. And itís probably not the only battleground state that will see a blue shift of some note. For instance, Wisconsin canít begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, and Michiganís count is expected to stretch on for a few days, too
    I think the first order of business after the election is to change the laws in states like PA and allow them to start processing mail-in votes earlier. I guess those who are opposed to mail-in voting (for political or non-political reasons - still not sure why people feel this way) would oppose this, but it seems like a very common sense plan. Not processing them until election day is just a recipe for disaster. There are a lot of other changes I would make to our voting system but this seems like low hanging fruit. But good luck getting anyone to agree on anything.

  5. #17045

  6. #17046
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    You mean the Trump uptick? IIRC, Minnesota has been one of Trumpís targets for some time and His campaign considered it a potential backstop if he were to drop a 2016 state.

    Thereís also the below, which feels like the appetizer to full course police state.

    https://m.startribune.com/trump-official-asks-minneapolis-police-union-to-recruit-retired-cops-as-poll-challengers-on-election-day/572904421/?c=n&clmob=y

  7. #17047
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    You mean the Trump uptick? IIRC, Minnesota has been one of Trump’s targets for some time and His campaign considered it a potential backstop if he were to drop a 2016 state.

    There’s also the below, which feels like the appetizer to full course police state.

    https://m.startribune.com/trump-offi...1/?c=n&clmob=y
    Yes, the uptick was what I was pointing out. And as a follow-up, I actually don't see a lot of good news for Biden in most of today's RealClearPolitics averages in the swing states listed. Looks like he's dropping polling average leads in most of those states over the last couple of days. I maintain that any Biden lead of less than 5 full points in a swing state is in serious danger come next Tuesday. And yes, I could be very wrong on that. PTSD2016 and all.

  8. #17048
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    I don't think so...if either campaign's internal polling showed it really competitive, somebody would be heading there...is MN on anyone's visit list in the last week?

    538 has the margin at 8.1%

  9. #17049
    By the way, Biden's up another per cent today in 538 odds 89-11. Getting close to 9 to 1.

    And FL looks better for Biden A+ Marist has him up 51-47.

  10. #17050
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Interesting that RCP includes those polls to get its average. I wouldn't go so far as to say Minnesota, Wisconsin et al are automatically safe for Biden. Turnout matters. But RCP has a VERY different reading than does, say 538 (has Biden up 8.1 using 16 polls from October alone). I mean that one poll is from September 21-23!!!!! That might as well be from 2012. And another is from Trafalgar whose methodology includes "'cause I think so".

  11. #17051
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    I don't think so...if either campaign's internal polling showed it really competitive, somebody would be heading there...is MN on anyone's visit list in the last week?

    538 has the margin at 8.1%
    Minnesota and NV are the only potential Trump flips vs 2016. Theyíre not looking good for him but if itís going to happen it would be in one of those two.

  12. #17052
    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    I don't think so...if either campaign's internal polling showed it really competitive, somebody would be heading there...is MN on anyone's visit list in the last week?

    538 has the margin at 8.1%
    But even 538 has Trump ticking up in a lot of the key battleground states.

  13. #17053
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    But even 538 has Trump ticking up in a lot of the key battleground states.
    Nate Silver last night

    Although thereís been a slight decline in Bidenís national polls since the debate, a majority of state polls show his position improving. To be more precise, Biden has gained 0.7 percentage points in the average state poll since the debate, while heís lost 0.5 points in the average national poll. That brings the national and state polls into better alignment after a period where national polls suggested that Biden led by 10 to 11 points but state polls were more consistent with a lead of about 9 points instead.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ce-tightening/

  14. #17054
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    But even 538 has Trump ticking up in a lot of the key battleground states.
    You could parse exactly what defines a battleground state but Nate Silver doesn't appear to agree with you

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...06898676883456

    @NateSilver538
    On average, Biden has lost 0.5 points in national polls since the debate, but gained 0.7 points in state polls, closing a bit of a weird state vs national poll gap we'd seen pre-debate. No signs of a tightening race overall, and Biden is probably gaining ground in the Midwest.
    8:16 PM ∑ Oct 28, 2020∑Twitter for Android

    I'd say maybe Pennsylvania and Florida may be tightening slightly but there haven't been any high quality polls (ranked by 538) in either state since the debate until Marist showing FL +4 for Biden dropped this morning. There have also been some weird (either bad methodology or partisanish) in those 2 states since the debate.

    Example 1: Susquehanna (C grade) had Trump +5 on Oct 27 while they had Biden +4 in their previous poll in late Sept. FL is close but the same firm showing a 9 point swing over the last month for Trump doesn't make me feel like they know what they are doing

    Example 2: Trafalgar showing PA as even on 10/25 could be viewed as a bit sketchy as well. 538 dropped them from their rankings after they showed their work on a Michigan poll from Oct 22nd that had Trump +2. The details showed a lot of absurd things https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...81379067215875
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  15. #17055
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    I bring this up in this thread because while Kushner, himself, almost certainly anticipates that he'll be president one day, I can hardly imagine that Trump operatives want him to be the bloodless face of the Trump campaign in the days leading up to the final vote.
    I think his wife has better odds.

  16. #17056
    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    You could parse exactly what defines a battleground state but Nate Silver doesn't appear to agree with you

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...06898676883456

    @NateSilver538
    On average, Biden has lost 0.5 points in national polls since the debate, but gained 0.7 points in state polls, closing a bit of a weird state vs national poll gap we'd seen pre-debate. No signs of a tightening race overall, and Biden is probably gaining ground in the Midwest.
    8:16 PM ∑ Oct 28, 2020∑Twitter for Android

    I'd say maybe Pennsylvania and Florida may be tightening slightly but there haven't been any high quality polls (ranked by 538) in either state since the debate until Marist showing FL +4 for Biden dropped this morning. There have also been some weird (either bad methodology or partisanish) in those 2 states since the debate.

    Example 1: Susquehanna (C grade) had Trump +5 on Oct 27 while they had Biden +4 in their previous poll in late Sept. FL is close but the same firm showing a 9 point swing over the last month for Trump doesn't make me feel like they know what they are doing

    Example 2: Trafalgar showing PA as even on 10/25 could be viewed as a bit sketchy as well. 538 dropped them from their rankings after they showed their work on a Michigan poll from Oct 22nd that had Trump +2. The details showed a lot of absurd things https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...81379067215875
    My only question: Is Silver basing his analysis of Biden gaining "0.7 points in state polls" an average of all 50 states, or just battleground states? If it's the latter, then that's great. But if it's the former it does nothing to allay my concerns about tightening. The Election is going to boil down to just a handful of states. I wish it were not so, but it is. So what's going on in FL, PA, NC, AZ, MI and WI is what I want to know about? Is Trump gaining in those states over the past few days? Or is Biden widening his lead in those states? FL and PA in particular are going to be the key. If Biden wins both of them it's over. If Trump wins both it's over. A split creates a coin-flip scenario in my mind.

  17. #17057
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada (Ohio born and raised)
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    My only question: Is Silver basing his analysis of Biden gaining "0.7 points in state polls" an average of all 50 states, or just battleground states? If it's the latter, then that's great. But if it's the former it does nothing to allay my concerns about tightening. The Election is going to boil down to just a handful of states. I wish it were not so, but it is. So what's going on in FL, PA, NC, AZ, MI and WI is what I want to know about? Is Trump gaining in those states over the past few days? Or is Biden widening his lead in those states? FL and PA in particular are going to be the key. If Biden wins both of them it's over. If Trump wins both it's over. A split creates a coin-flip scenario in my mind.
    Biden could overcome a Trump win in FL and PA. Arizona and NE-2 alone would do it. Also, a split of PA and FL would almost certainly mean Biden would win the election.

  18. #17058
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    My only question: Is Silver basing his analysis of Biden gaining "0.7 points in state polls" an average of all 50 states, or just battleground states? If it's the latter, then that's great. But if it's the former it does nothing to allay my concerns about tightening. The Election is going to boil down to just a handful of states. I wish it were not so, but it is. So what's going on in FL, PA, NC, AZ, MI and WI is what I want to know about? Is Trump gaining in those states over the past few days? Or is Biden widening his lead in those states? FL and PA in particular are going to be the key. If Biden wins both of them it's over. If Trump wins both it's over. A split creates a coin-flip scenario in my mind.
    Biden appears like he would win PA, WI, MI, AZ, NE 2nd by 5-12 points or 2-9 assuming the same polling error (I do NOT think the same polling error is likely). NC, GA, Iowa are toss-ups and TX goes to Trump by 2-4...if the election was today.

  19. #17059
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    Biden could overcome a Trump win in FL and PA. Arizona and NE-2 alone would do it. Also, a split of PA and FL would almost certainly mean Biden would win the election.
    Of course he could, but it would mean almost all the other pieces falling his way on Election night. I'm assuming that if Trump wins FL and PA it would be indicative of a broader movement toward him that affects other battleground states as well (places like NC & AZ). I could very well be wrong to make that assumption, but after 2016 I'm just inclined to look at it that way. As I said, PTSD and all...

  20. #17060
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada (Ohio born and raised)
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Of course he could, but it would mean almost all the other pieces falling his way on Election night. I'm assuming that if Trump wins FL and PA it would be indicative of a broader movement toward him that affects other battleground states as well (places like NC & AZ). I could very well be wrong to make that assumption, but after 2016 I'm just inclined to look at it that way. As I said, PTSD and all...
    If you consider MI/WI safe then it only takes Az and NE-2. AZ is different than the others, IMO. The main differences being Mark Kelly is running and Cindy McCain has endorsed Biden.

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