2020 Presidential Election

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think vote or don’t is big even in the groups that are decided. Trump probably won in 2016 because enough Hillary leans decided not to show up for whatever reason.

It's going to be very interesting to see the demographics of the final turnout. COVID included. Do both parties risk illness to show up? Does one more than the other? I've got my guesses, but they've been way wrong in the past, so I will simply stick to asking the questions.

[bundabergdevil]

Yes. I think there are still votes to be won or lost. Unemployment, mass sickness, shut downs, the economy and a fall recurrence will have a significant impact pushing these votes one way or the other.

The great majority know how they will vote, but the race is close enough to be won at the margins with those whose minds could be changed.

I would also submit there are 2 gates in this smaller group: (1) vote or don't, then (2) vote T or B.

Yes, but...this is obviously a highly informed, engaged posting community. It never ceases to amazes me how little most Americans pay attention to/care about/process the magnitude of various political issues, events, and campaigns.

I mean, the hottest presidential elections of everyone alive topped out in the low 60s.

It always makes me laugh that voter turnout in 1996 was one of the lowest in modern presidential politics. Newt invested SO much energy going after Clinton and we look back at that time as this great battle between Clinton and Gingrich but nobody cared, turnout in 96 was <50%.

Point I'm making is that the likely to vote folks have made up their mind but I'm assuming somewhere between 35-45% really don't care all that much unless they're given a very specific reason to do so...say, a pandemic or depression?

[rsvman]

Haven't read the entire thread but I assume the fact that Ms. Reade's lawyer quit has been discussed? Sounds like there was more and more evidence that she may have not been very truthful on other occasions in the past.
It seems obvious that her accusation will end up not movihg the needle at all, since fewer and fewer people think she is being honest.

[Steven43]

Haven't read the entire thread but I assume the fact that Ms. Reade's lawyer quit has been discussed? Sounds like there was more and more evidence that she may have not been very truthful on other occasions in the past.
It seems obvious that her accusation will end up not movihg the needle at all, since fewer and fewer people think she is being honest.

Perhaps Vlad ‘The Impaler’ Putin could represent her. I’m sure he’d be game.

[JasonEvans]

From the "It will never happen" file... a brand new poll out of Utah finds that state is actually in play. Trump 44, Biden 41. Utah has not voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964. That's before I was born and I am an old man

-Jason "gonna be interesting to see who Romney endorses... I would not rule out Romney backing Biden (especially if Biden promised him Secy of State or something like that)" Evans

[Nrrrrvous]

From the "It will never happen" file... a brand new poll out of Utah finds that state is actually in play. Trump 44, Biden 41. Utah has not voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964. That's before I was born and I am an old man

-Jason "gonna be interesting to see who Romney endorses... I would not rule out Romney backing Biden (especially if Biden promised him Secy of State or something like that)" Evans

Nope, no, nah, nada. Don't care what the poll says. I lived in UT from 2012 to 2017, there is no way in Heck Biden wins UT. I would wager a pie on that one.

[JasonEvans]

Nope, no, nah, nada. Don't care what the poll says. I lived in UT from 2012 to 2017, there is no way in Heck Biden wins UT. I would wager a pie on that one.

Well, even that poll does not show him winning, merely shows him down by 3.

Would you bet a pie on Trump -7? In other words, Trump beating Biden by at least 7 percentage points in Utah? He beat Hillary by 18 points (Evan McMullin almost beat Hillary) in 2016.

[BLPOG]

Against my better judgment, I decided to open this thread for the first time. I was curious to see if anyone had brought up the selection this past weekend of the presidential and vice presidential candidates to run on the Libertarian ticket. Didn't see anything as I quickly skimmed the last few pages, so I'll drop it in here.

President: Jo Jorgensen
Vice Pres: Spike Cohen

[Nrrrrvous]

Well, even that poll does not show him winning, merely shows him down by 3.

Would you bet a pie on Trump -7? In other words, Trump beating Biden by at least 7 percentage points in Utah? He beat Hillary by 18 points (Evan McMullin almost beat Hillary) in 2016.

Yes, I believe Trump still wins by double digits. It'll be closer than 2016 but I still believe in the 10-12% points range. I would wager a pie on Trump minus 7.

[OldPhiKap]

Against my better judgment, I decided to open this thread for the first time. I was curious to see if anyone had brought up the selection this past weekend of the presidential and vice presidential candidates to run on the Libertarian ticket. Didn't see anything as I quickly skimmed the last few pages, so I'll drop it in here.

President: Jo Jorgensen
Vice Pres: Spike Cohen

Thanks, I had not seen that.

(Who thought it was a good idea to announce this in the middle of a three-day weekend?)

Saw this on Wikipedia about Spike Cohen -- this cannot be true:

"Cohen, an ally of performance artist and perennial candidate Vermin Supreme, is running on a platform promoting Free Ponies, Mandatory Tooth Brushing, Zombie Power, Killing Baby Hitler, and promoting anarchy.[5] He promises that should these not be achieved within the first 100 days of his vice presidency, he will resign and be replaced with Baby Yoda.[2] "

Curious to see how Jorgensen's sharp criticism of COVID restrictions on individual liberty grounds will play as well. Don't see that drawing away from Biden, for sure.

[Phredd3]

Jason "gonna be interesting to see who Romney endorses... I would not rule out Romney backing Biden (especially if Biden promised him Secy of State or something like that)" Evans

I think it's much more likely that Romney endorses nobody. He voted to impeach Trump, so he clearly can't endorse him without being an outright hypocrite. On the other hand, Biden is not exactly in Romney's camp philosophy-wise and Romney's state is pretty solidly R, as even that Trump-Biden poll shows. Any endorsement would be a big risk. Sometimes the best thing a politician can do is say nothing. I think that's likely the money play here.

[House P]

Thanks, I had not seen that.

(Who thought it was a good idea to announce this in the middle of a three-day weekend?)

Saw this on Wikipedia about Spike Cohen -- this cannot be true:

"Cohen, an ally of performance artist and perennial candidate Vermin Supreme, is running on a platform promoting Free Ponies, Mandatory Tooth Brushing, Zombie Power, Killing Baby Hitler, and promoting anarchy.[5] He promises that should these not be achieved within the first 100 days of his vice presidency, he will resign and be replaced with Baby Yoda.[2] "

Curious to see how Jorgensen's sharp criticism of COVID restrictions on individual liberty grounds will play as well. Don't see that drawing away from Biden, for sure.

How did you miss the most DBR-centric portion of the Platform section of Cohen's website?

"going back in time to kill baby Woodrow Wilson, which ultimately makes killing Hitler unnecessary"

If only Olympic Fan were still with us, he could surely tell us how this policy goal will play with voters!


For the record, it appears that Spike Cohen originally intended to be the running mate of satirist Vermin Supreme. However, when Supreme failed to win the nomination (he came in third), Cohen chose to remain in the running for VP and ended up winning the nomination. The Supreme/Cohen ticket advocated for several absurdist, satirical policies which you can check out if you are into that type of humor. However, the "killing baby Wilson" was the only one which seemed directly related to DBR lore.

[JasonEvans]

Interesting poll today out of North Carolina: https://cprnc.org/wp-content/uploads...Release-v4.pdf

Presidential: Biden and Trump tied at 47
Senate: Cunningham ahead of incumbent GOP Sen. Tillis 46-44
Governor: Incumbent Gov. Cooper trouncing challenger Forest 55-37

[PackMan97]

Interesting poll today out of North Carolina: https://cprnc.org/wp-content/uploads...Release-v4.pdf

Presidential: Biden and Trump tied at 47
Senate: Cunningham ahead of incumbent GOP Sen. Tillis 46-44
Governor: Incumbent Gov. Cooper trouncing challenger Forest 55-37

I'm going to predict a VERY bad November for the Republicans.

Forest lost the gubernatorial election the day he questioned the shutdown back in March, imo.

[PackMan97]

I think it's much more likely that Romney endorses nobody. He voted to impeach Trump, so he clearly can't endorse him without being an outright hypocrite. On the other hand, Biden is not exactly in Romney's camp philosophy-wise and Romney's state is pretty solidly R, as even that Trump-Biden poll shows. Any endorsement would be a big risk. Sometimes the best thing a politician can do is say nothing. I think that's likely the money play here.

There is a chance a viable third party candidate emerges that gets the endorsement of someone like Romney. By viable, I mean someone with the experience to make a good President and not someone who would necessarily be a threat to win the electoral college.

Right now I don't know of any Libertarians that would fit that description, but maybe someone will run as an Independent. Johnson has the chance in 2016, but flamed out due to Aleppo.

[OldPhiKap]

In the 2016 presidential election, Romney wrote his wife's name in. FWIW.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Interesting poll today out of North Carolina: https://cprnc.org/wp-content/uploads...Release-v4.pdf

Presidential: Biden and Trump tied at 47
Senate: Cunningham ahead of incumbent GOP Sen. Tillis 46-44
Governor: Incumbent Gov. Cooper trouncing challenger Forest 55-37

Forest is an afterthought at this point. Even with months ahead of us, Cooper has been popular in his shutdown decision making, and that's the one thing that could have hurt him if it went the wrong way.

I'm guessing that Tillis is going to to lose, which brings me to a point I made before. (In the congressional thread I think.)

There is no way that both Tillis and Forest lose, and Trump wins in NC.

[OldPhiKap]

Forest is an afterthought at this point. Even with months ahead of us, Cooper has been popular in his shutdown decision making, and that's the one thing that could have hurt him if it went the wrong way.

I'm guessing that Tillis is going to to lose, which brings me to a point I made before. (In the congressional thread I think.)

There is no way that both Tillis and Forest lose, and Trump wins in NC.

So, if Cooper tells Trump to fly a kite over the Charlotte convention issue -- do you think he is on solid ground politically?

[AustinDevil]

So, if Cooper tells Trump to fly a kite over the Charlotte convention issue -- do you think he is on solid ground politically?

He doesn't even have to do that. What's being demanded of him is to tell them, in late May, that an August event will be 100% good to go. He can be reasonable about the absurdity of that demand, with no kite-flying recommendation needed.

[Phredd3]

He doesn't even have to do that. What's being demanded of him is to tell them, in late May, that an August event will be 100% good to go. He can be reasonable about the absurdity of that demand, with no kite-flying recommendation needed.

He can even throw it back at Trump, by saying that he is following current national guidelines as it is, although he'd have to phrase it delicately so that he doesn't lock himself to CDC standards, which the WH has already shown it is willing to manipulate. Even if he avoids that altogether, Cooper is politically pretty immune on this subject right now, and it is likely that Trump is fully aware of that. Provoke and pounce is a regular Trump strategy, and the threat will likely be forgotten if there is no traction.