2020 Presidential Election

[budwom]

^ good Business Week article this week on Mitch and the Russki backed aluminum factory fistouche in Kentucky...(FWIW, I see KY turning blue right after Georgia and Texas, which is basically never. Demographics trumped by legislative, judicial and cultural issues, IMO, in the latter two.)

Then again, perhaps while in France Trump will give Kentucky back to France as a reversal of the Louisiana Purchase, of which Kentucky wasn't actually a part, but who cares about that?

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Y'all want a real fight, what happens if Trump loses, the GOP loses the senate, but Ginsberg dies (or one of the Supremes retires) during the lame duck session? Anyone want to bet whether Mitch and Lindsay might try to put another 50-year-old conservative on the court in those circumstances?

I am convinced that Thomas will retire in the next year for exactly this reason. Then he will go on a speaking tour, to make up for lost time.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I am convinced that Thomas will retire in the next year for exactly this reason. Then he will go on a speaking tour, to make up for lost time.

In an election year, a SCJ pick is going to be extra politically charged. I don't think that would be the time that any GOP senator would want to replace Thomas with someone as conservative, or even more conservative, than he is.
The fight would possibly be even more contentious than that of Kavanaugh's.
If Thomas were to actually take the path that you surmise, I could see the court actually going to a more moderate stance, simply because of his loss. Sure, he'd be replaced with a Trump pick, but DT would be begged to not pick anyone as extreme. Not to say Trump would actually listen, and if he does, then the GOP Senate would very likely fall into the party line. However, in a rail thin election year as the one we have coming up, they would also very likely deal with consequences that would leave them regretting their choice.

So, with that being said, I'd guess that Thomas knows this too, and sticks to staying on the bench.

[dudog84]

There has been a good bit of chatter about Mitch McConnell being in trouble in Kentucky. His approval numbers are wretched, in the low 20s, and he has a tough Democratic challenger in former fighter pilot Amy McGrath. She is well funded and generating a lot of enthusiasm. No one is predicting a blue seat from Kentucky yet, but it sure looks like McConnell will have a tough fight on his hands and if the GOP has a tough night in 18 months, Kentucky could flip.

I have heard about Amy, but since the poll didn't put her up against Mitch (as they did D vs. R in the governor's race) I assumed she wasn't official yet. From what I know about her, I think she can beat him.

Kentucky is not turning blue (Texas and Georgia might), but if the Rs don't have the enthusiasm the Ds obviously have, that spells trouble for them. This will clearly be the most volatile election season (and probably aftermath) we will have seen in our lifetime (I can't speak on the James K. Polk vs. Henry Clay kerfuffle of 1844).

[sagegrouse]

I am convinced that Thomas will retire in the next year for exactly this reason. Then he will go on a speaking tour, to make up for lost time.

Clarence Thomas, one of a kind. He and his wife travel around the country in their RV and stay in parks and camps all over the place. He uses an assumed name and says he enjoys the camaraderie and fireside visits with his fellow campers. One or two have said, "Man, you look a lot like Clarence Thomas."

[CameronBornAndBred]

Clarence Thomas, one of a kind. He and his wife travel around the country in their RV and stay in parks and camps all over the place. He uses an assumed name and says he enjoys the camaraderie and fireside visits with his fellow campers. One or two have said, "Man, you look a lot like Clarence Thomas."

Not allowed to spread sporks, but I had to Google that, and HA! It's true! Thanks for today's trivial history lesson.

[OldPhiKap]

Clarence Thomas, one of a kind. He and his wife travel around the country in their RV and stay in parks and camps all over the place. He uses an assumed name and says he enjoys the camaraderie and fireside visits with his fellow campers. One or two have said, "Man, you look a lot like Clarence Thomas."

I’ve met him a few times, both before he went on the SCt and after. An incredibly nice and cordial guy.

[JasonEvans]

I have heard about Amy, but since the poll didn't put her up against Mitch (as they did D vs. R in the governor's race) I assumed she wasn't official yet. From what I know about her, I think she can beat him.

Amy McGrath dropped a new ad today that appears to be going viral and really hits Mitch hard on whether he is a champion of coal workers or coal companies. In Kentucky, that is a big deal.

https://apple.news/AQ6fRSDeuSjy4ytwAL-oTtw

[golfinesquire]

In an election year, a SCJ pick is going to be extra politically charged. I don't think that would be the time that any GOP senator would want to replace Thomas with someone as conservative, or even more conservative, than he is.
The fight would possibly be even more contentious than that of Kavanaugh's.
If Thomas were to actually take the path that you surmise, I could see the court actually going to a more moderate stance, simply because of his loss. Sure, he'd be replaced with a Trump pick, but DT would be begged to not pick anyone as extreme. Not to say Trump would actually listen, and if he does, then the GOP Senate would very likely fall into the party line. However, in a rail thin election year as the one we have coming up, they would also very likely deal with consequences that would leave them regretting their choice.

So, with that being said, I'd guess that Thomas knows this too, and sticks to staying on the bench.

I don’t see why you think DT would be asked to pick someone less extreme. He is playing solely to his base and they like Gorsuch and Kavanaugh and are not appalled that McConnell stole a seat.

[golfinesquire]

I’ve met him a few times, both before he went on the SCt and after. An incredibly nice and cordial guy.

Anita Hill might have a different view. There are some who think he might retire to avoid a potential impeachment proceeding should the Dems take the Senate. Perjury might be easier to prove in the age of the MeToo movement.

[OldPhiKap]

Anita Hill might have a different view. There are some who think he might retire to avoid a potential impeachment proceeding should the Dems take the Senate. Perjury might be easier to prove in the age of the MeToo movement.

There is zero chance he is impeached. They won’t even impeach Trump for Pete’s sake, despite the Mueller report coming out six or so months ago.

(not saying they should, just pointing out the state of affairs)

[golfinesquire]

The Dems are a minority in the Senate. If they take the Senate it
is a different ballgame. After McConnell refused to give Harland
a hearing, the rules have changed. Impeachment
proceedings might cause Thomas to step down to avoid
embarrassment, which would be the point of doing it. Wise not to underestimate the anger over McConnell’s power play

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The Dems are a minority in the Senate. If they take the Senate it
is a different ballgame. After McConnell refused to give Harland
a hearing, the rules have changed. Impeachment
proceedings might cause Thomas to step down to avoid
embarrassment, which would be the point of doing it. Wise not to underestimate the anger over McConnell’s power play

On what grounds would they impeach? Based on testimony during his confirmation 30 years ago? Good luck with that. The Dems have bigger fish to fry.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

On what grounds would they impeach? Based on testimony during his confirmation 30 years ago? Good luck with that. The Dems have bigger fish to fry.

Additionally, wouldn't they wait for a potential democrat president?

[budwom]

Read today Trump said at the G7 meeting that he is having "misgivings" about the trade situation, giving it second thoughts...I remain confident in the prediction that victory will soon be declared.

[YmoBeThere]

Read today Trump said at the G7 meeting that he is having "misgivings" about the trade situation, giving it second thoughts...I remain confident in the prediction that victory will soon be declared.

I think that a change in personnel in particular Peter Navarro and Lighthizer would be the first move in the victory declaration.

[budwom]

I think that a change in personnel in particular Peter Navarro and Lighthizer would be the first move in the victory declaration.

yup, those guys are pretty hard core on the issue...Trump seems genuinely freaked about the possibility of a recession...I don't think he'll have any problem doing a major pivot

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...7ce_story.html

[OldPhiKap]

yup, those guys are pretty hard core on the issue...Trump seems genuinely freaked about the possibility of a recession...I don't think he'll have any problem doing a major pivot

FC895848-D31B-4ED8-B1E7-FC08DD474616.jpg

[budwom]

You can't make this stuff up...in a very recent "clarification (we get a lot of those) White House officials say that Trump's only regret on the trade issue is that he didn't raise tariffs even higher.

[YmoBeThere]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

Second thoughts appear to be not going higher on tariffs. Perhaps doing it faster? My interprettion without having read much more than the headline is that the election creates a timing issue that may have been misjudged. Likely the final goal is still the same. In other words, the Navarro/Lighthizer crowd reassertjng themselves after yesterday's comments.