2020 Presidential Election

[bundabergdevil]

Perhaps I am mistaken and Wander is correct when he says I just don’t like her.

I mostly remember Harris' policy - or lack there of...or confusion articulation of - on health care. But, according to these infographics from BI and yahoo finance, she was among the more liberal of the candidates. Not sure how great the analysis but it at least somewhat buoys your perception of her as to the left of Biden a good bit.


Spectrum1.jpgSpectrum2.jpg

[JasonEvans]

Well, they have to go somewhere next. Who else is a viable candidate?

Assuming Biden wins in 2020, there are myriad of others who could be strong contenders for the GOP in 2024.

Pence
Don Jr.
Ivanka
and even Donald Trump himself could decide to run again. There have been numerous articles about this possibility.

Trump, who likes to exert his power, is unlikely to take the Obama route and refuse to endorse/campaign for anyone in the GOP race. He will have his favorite and will work hard for that person. It might be one of his kids, it could be his VP, or it could be someone else. Win or lose in 2020, he would be a powerful ally.

Assuming he loses this fall, Trump's future power within the GOP will likely be somewhat determined by how close the election is. If Biden gets a narrow victory and the GOP does not get routed in House/Senate races again, then Trump probably retains a lot of power over the party. But, if Biden gets 330+ electoral votes and the GOP loses 4 or 5 senate seats then Trump will be seen as electoral poison by many in the party and I think his power wanes, perhaps significantly. I suspect Trump will always have a base within the GOP that will back him no matter what, but the size of that base is the big unknown at this point.

-Jason "I suspect Don Jr has set himself up as the heir to his dad's political power... but I would not rule out Ivanka" Evans

[JasonEvans]

While I think the national outrage and protests over police killing AfAms has dealt a major blow to Klobuchar's hopes of being VP, I wonder if it has boosted someone else... Keisha Lance Bottoms, the mayor of Atlanta. I keep on hearing folks saying that she has delivered some great speeches during this crisis and that she is showing real leadership. If Georgia is a fringe swing state, maybe KLB makes it a bit tougher for Trump to defend. She would certainly help him with AfAm turnout.

-Jason "as I say this, Kamala Harris is live on CNN and doing a great job of making solid points and showing her chops in a crisis" Evans

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Assuming Biden wins in 2020, there are myriad of others who could be strong contenders for the GOP in 2024.

Pence
Don Jr.
Ivanka
and even Donald Trump himself could decide to run again. There have been numerous articles about this possibility.

Trump, who likes to exert his power, is unlikely to take the Obama route and refuse to endorse/campaign for anyone in the GOP race. He will have his favorite and will work hard for that person. It might be one of his kids, it could be his VP, or it could be someone else. Win or lose in 2020, he would be a powerful ally.

Assuming he loses this fall, Trump's future power within the GOP will likely be somewhat determined by how close the election is. If Biden gets a narrow victory and the GOP does not get routed in House/Senate races again, then Trump probably retains a lot of power over the party. But, if Biden gets 330+ electoral votes and the GOP loses 4 or 5 senate seats then Trump will be seen as electoral poison by many in the party and I think his power wanes, perhaps significantly. I suspect Trump will always have a base within the GOP that will back him no matter what, but the size of that base is the big unknown at this point.

-Jason "I suspect Don Jr has set himself up as the heir to his dad's political power... but I would not rule out Ivanka" Evans

If there is a close election, particularly if Biden wins, we might still be in litigation come 2024.

[ArkieDukie]

I spoke with my nephew and asked him who he’d want to see as Biden’s VP pick. His answer, without missing a beat, was Elizabeth Warren. Shows how much I know!!

I’ve been hearing a lot of good things about the mayor of Atlanta. It’ll be interesting to see if she vaults into the picture. As someone else mentioned, Tulsi Gabbard is a hard no from me. She lost me when she said the Mueller Report acquitted Trump. I listened to its entirety and can say, unequivocally, that it did not. With that being said, as the esteemed CB&B said earlier, Biden could choose a ham sandwich as his running mate and get a lot of votes.

[Steven43]

Assuming Biden wins in 2020, there are myriad of others who could be strong contenders for the GOP in 2024.

Pence
Don Jr.
Ivanka
and even Donald Trump himself could decide to run again.

Is this really what’s it come to for the GOP? These are the best candidates they can put forth? Man, I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone or some kind of alternate universe.

[wavedukefan70s]

Nikki is poised to launch for the Reps in 2024. And will be an intriguing candidate.

If she and Crenshaw were to team up tbat would be a tough pair.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Assuming Biden wins in 2020, there are myriad of others who could be strong contenders for the GOP in 2024.

Pence
Don Jr.
Ivanka
and even Donald Trump himself could decide to run again. There have been numerous articles about this possibility.

Trump, who likes to exert his power, is unlikely to take the Obama route and refuse to endorse/campaign for anyone in the GOP race. He will have his favorite and will work hard for that person. It might be one of his kids, it could be his VP, or it could be someone else. Win or lose in 2020, he would be a powerful ally.

Assuming he loses this fall, Trump's future power within the GOP will likely be somewhat determined by how close the election is. If Biden gets a narrow victory and the GOP does not get routed in House/Senate races again, then Trump probably retains a lot of power over the party. But, if Biden gets 330+ electoral votes and the GOP loses 4 or 5 senate seats then Trump will be seen as electoral poison by many in the party and I think his power wanes, perhaps significantly. I suspect Trump will always have a base within the GOP that will back him no matter what, but the size of that base is the big unknown at this point.

-Jason "I suspect Don Jr has set himself up as the heir to his dad's political power... but I would not rule out Ivanka" Evans

Your list above is precisely why Haley is the future of the party. The GOP is in dire straits regarding where they go next. I seriously doubt they are inclined to marry their future to the Trump legacy. That's not the future of the electorate, for starters.

[PackMan97]

Is this really what’s it come to for the GOP? These are the best candidates they can put forth? Man, I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone or some kind of alternate universe.

How old are the Bush Daughters? 35 yet?

[jv001]

Is this really what’s it come to for the GOP? These are the best candidates they can put forth? Man, I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone or some kind of alternate universe.

Neither party has a list of All Stars. My view from the nose bleed seats.

[dudog84]

Pence
Don Jr.
Ivanka
and even Donald Trump himself could decide to run again. There have been numerous articles about this possibility.

Why are you dissing Eric?

[OldPhiKap]

Why are you dissing Eric?

Why you dissing Tiffany? ;-)

[dudog84]

Why you dissing Tiffany? ;-)

Gotcha! She's not old enough.

[OldPhiKap]

Gotcha! She's not old enough.

You got me! I had to look it up.

[JasonEvans]

Is this really what’s it come to for the GOP? These are the best candidates they can put forth? Man, I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone or some kind of alternate universe.

I was just listing several significant options that were likely to get Trump's backing before Haley. My post was in response to folks who felt Haley is a foregone conclusion as the 2024 nominee. I believe Trump may still hold great influence over a large percentage of the GOP in 2024 and exert his influence to help one of the folks I just listed.

Your list above is precisely why Haley is the future of the party. The GOP is in dire straits regarding where they go next. I seriously doubt they are inclined to marry their future to the Trump legacy. That's not the future of the electorate, for starters.

The GOP leadership and the voters are two very different things. While it may be true that mainstream Republicans do not want to become the Party of Trump, I'm not sure how much of a say they have in all that. We have seen time and again since the 2016 primary season that it is far better for a candidate to be preferred by Trump than it is for a candidate to be preferred by the GOP establishment.

To be clear, I am not saying that Trump's word will be the final one when it comes to picking future leaders of the party and major candidates, but (depending on how the GOP base feels about him after the 2020 election) her may have a very large say in who is successful going forward.

-Jason "and if Trump launches a TV network -- something that I suspect is highly likely after 2020 -- then he will have a huge platform to advance his ideas" Evans

[mattman91]

Re: 2024

Don't underestimate Ron DeSantis.

[JasonEvans]

Neither party has a list of All Stars. My view from the nose bleed seats.

Dissent:

The GOP is very excited about Nikki Haley, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, SoS Mike Pompeo, Texas Gov. Greg Abbot, Florida Senator Rick Scott, Ga congressman (and likely soon to be senator) Doug Collins. Depending on how Florida comes out of the virus crisis, Ron DeSantis could have a very bright future. And, as I mentioned, there are the Trump kids.

The Democrats are eager for Pete Butigieg to get some more credentials. Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom have won raves for their handling of the COVID crisis. Of course there is Stacey Abrams but Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has also emerged in recent days and seems primed for a bigger profile. Florida Congresswoman Val Demmings may be the VP pick and if she isn't you can tell that the party is eager to advance her in leadership. I continue to think Catherine Cortez Masto has a big future with the party, even though she will not be Biden's VP pick. And then there is AOC, who seems poised to take Bernie's base and try to expand it.

Picking an All-Star 4 years in advance of an election is tough to do. After his disastrous 1988 convention speech, it was widely assumed that Bill Clinton's political future was dead in the water. Four years later...

-Jason "conventions often turn no-names into stars... look at what happened with the Dems gave a key speaking spot to a Illinois state senator in 2004" Evans

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was just listing several significant options that were likely to get Trump's backing before Haley. My post was in response to folks who felt Haley is a foregone conclusion as the 2024 nominee. I believe Trump may still hold great influence over a large percentage of the GOP in 2024 and exert his influence to help one of the folks I just listed.



The GOP leadership and the voters are two very different things. While it may be true that mainstream Republicans do not want to become the Party of Trump, I'm not sure how much of a say they have in all that. We have seen time and again since the 2016 primary season that it is far better for a candidate to be preferred by Trump than it is for a candidate to be preferred by the GOP establishment.

To be clear, I am not saying that Trump's word will be the final one when it comes to picking future leaders of the party and major candidates, but (depending on how the GOP base feels about him after the 2020 election) her may have a very large say in who is successful going forward.

-Jason "and if Trump launches a TV network -- something that I suspect is highly likely after 2020 -- then he will have a huge platform to advance his ideas" Evans

Wow, I could hardly disagree more. I get the sense that either in six months or in fifty four months, the GOP will be ready to move on to something different. They have been clinging to a past of the party that simply doesn't exist anymore. They need a forward-thinking vision of how they will remain relevant and electable for the next generation.

Yes the Democrats have nominated Biden over Bernie (two old farts), but with Booker, Kamala, Beto, Pete, Yang, Castro - they have lots of folks to populate the party for the next 20-30 years that represent a wider swath of the population and appeal to younger Americans.

I agree that Trump will make some sort of move to the media, but I don't see that being a "king maker" sort of enterprise. I see the GOP needing a reboot that goes deeper than "Next Trump Up."

[sagegrouse]

I was just listing several significant options that were likely to get Trump's backing before Haley. My post was in response to folks who felt Haley is a foregone conclusion as the 2024 nominee. I believe Trump may still hold great influence over a large percentage of the GOP in 2024 and exert his influence to help one of the folks I just listed.



The GOP leadership and the voters are two very different things. While it may be true that mainstream Republicans do not want to become the Party of Trump, I'm not sure how much of a say they have in all that. We have seen time and again since the 2016 primary season that it is far better for a candidate to be preferred by Trump than it is for a candidate to be preferred by the GOP establishment.

To be clear, I am not saying that Trump's word will be the final one when it comes to picking future leaders of the party and major candidates, but (depending on how the GOP base feels about him after the 2020 election) her may have a very large say in who is successful going forward.

-Jason "and if Trump launches a TV network -- something that I suspect is highly likely after 2020 -- then he will have a huge platform to advance his ideas" Evans

Jason, Are we talking about 2024? Then, if Trump loses in 2020, he'll be a loser -- which doesn't help his credibility with the party faithful. Moreover, there will literally be dozens of tell-all books from veterans of the Trump era -- some pro, but many con -- which makes his future standing even less predictable.

[JasonEvans]

Wow, I could hardly disagree more. I get the sense that either in six months or in fifty four months, the GOP will be ready to move on to something different. They have been clinging to a past of the party that simply doesn't exist anymore. They need a forward-thinking vision of how they will remain relevant and electable for the next generation.

Yes the Democrats have nominated Biden over Bernie (two old farts), but with Booker, Kamala, Beto, Pete, Yang, Castro - they have lots of folks to populate the party for the next 20-30 years that represent a wider swath of the population and appeal to younger Americans.

I agree that Trump will make some sort of move to the media, but I don't see that being a "king maker" sort of enterprise. I see the GOP needing a reboot that goes deeper than "Next Trump Up."

There is no hard evidence for either of us to use to convince the other as we are both guessing about the future, but I believe that regardless of what GOP leadership may want there is a good chance Trump continues to hold an outsized influence over the party for a while (especially if he wins this fall or loses in a close race). He remains extremely popular among the GOP rank-and-file with approval ratings around 90%. As I mentioned earlier, we have seen him be kingmaker in primaries and we have seen prominent GOP officials resign rather than challenge a Trump-backed candidate.

And, let me ask this... if Barack Obama had backed pretty much any of the Democratic contenders in the 2020 field, don't you think that person would be the nominee now? He took the traditional ex-President route of staying out of the fray but if he had campaigned for Castro or Booker or Harris or Bernie or Warren or DeBlasio or Hickenlooper or any of them, I feel pretty confident in saying that person would be the nominee today. Now, ask yourself, do you think Donald Trump will stay silent when the GOP contenders are running in 2024?

-Jason "of course, the counter to all this is Jeb Bush... though he was the GOP front-runner for a bit in 2016 and I don't feel like his father and brother were all that vocal in backing him" Evans