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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    2020 Presidential Election

    It is with great sadness that I find myself on January 1st of 2019 opening the 2020 Presidential Election thread. Sigh... the process of running for the highest office in the land is a long one.

    For those of you who have not read the previous political threads on the DBR, I feel some explanation is necessary. Under most circumstances, political talk is illegal on the DBR and will result in infractions. However, we do allow it here with one very, very important caveat.

    You posts cannot be partisan in nature. This is a thread for dispassionate analysis and discussion. Ideally, no one should be able to tell from your posts if you are a D or an R; if you are Red or Blue or Green; if you are liberal or conservative.

    If that sounds like a challenge for you, my advice is simple... stay away!! Infractions are handed out swiftly in this thread and they are typically much harsher than in other threads. I often bypass the "Warning" stage and get right to putting people in time out if they cross the partisan line.

    With that out of the way, I welcome all of you to the conversation. Have at it and enjoy!

    -Jason "Lizzie Warren is in... and that is a bad sign for her chances. Typically, the strongest candidates wait as long as they can to get in the race. I expect Biden, Beto, Booker, Bloomberg, Harris, and Gillibrand to wait until at least February to join the fray" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "Lizzie Warren is in... and that is a bad sign for her chances. Typically, the strongest candidates wait as long as they can to get in the race. I expect Biden, Beto, Booker, Bloomberg, Harris, and Gillibrand to wait until at least February to join the fray" Evans
    I could have counted at least 10 other candidates that I would have predicted to announce before Warren, especially with all of her talk about how she wasn't interested in running. I think you are correct that the stronger candidates wait; they don't need to jump in so early and introduce themselves.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #3
    God help us and save us.

    What a dreadful thread to see...
    Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It is with great sadness that I find myself on January 1st of 2019 opening the 2020 Presidential Election thread. Sigh... the process of running for the highest office in the land is a long one.
    You make it sound like your hands are bound here.

    You COULD, if you wanted to, wait until the 10th candidate has announced.

    OR, instead of doing it by candidate, you could just set a date like June 1, 2019 for when the thread will be started.

    OR, I could just ignore this thread if I don't like it. Which I'll do for several months. Catch up with y'all on June 1, 2019. Maybe. If the midterm thread is still open by then, I might just laugh and call if off.

  5. #5
    Only Shakespeare (translated from it's original Klingon) could do the first page of this thread justice.

    O, pardon me, thou bleeding piece of earth,
    That I am meek and gentle with these butchers!
    Thou art the ruins of the noblest man
    That ever lived in the tide of times.
    Woe to the hand that shed this costly blood!
    Over thy wounds now do I prophesy,--
    Which, like dumb mouths, do ope their ruby lips,
    To beg the voice and utterance of my tongue--
    A curse shall light upon the limbs of men;
    Domestic fury and fierce civil strife
    Shall cumber all the parts of DBR;
    Blood and destruction shall be so in use
    And dreadful objects so familiar
    That mothers shall but smile when they behold
    Their infants quarter'd with the hands of war;
    All pity choked with custom of fell deeds:
    And Jason's spirit, ranging for revenge,
    With Ate by his side come hot from hell,
    Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice
    Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war;
    That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
    With carrion men, groaning for burial.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Only Shakespeare (translated from it's original Klingon) could do the first page of this thread justice.
    In Jason's thread-starter post, he also "doth protest too much, methinks." :-)

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    In Jason's thread-starter post, he also "doth protest too much, methinks." :-)
    I thought you were going to ignore this thread for 6 months. Didn't even last 2 hours. So much for resolutions.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Asheville
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.
    It could happen, but it would be political suicide.
    "I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend."

    -Thomas Jefferson

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by mattman91 View Post
    It could happen, but it would be political suicide.
    Perhaps. I could see someone who has rock solid support in their own state challenging Trump and then surviving to retain their senate seat 4 years later.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by mattman91 View Post
    It could happen, but it would be political suicide.
    I could see an R throwing their name in the ring before eventually picking up a third party bid. That would make for fascinating drama over the next, uh, 22 months.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    I think some Republicans will try to build out the infrastructure of a campaign organization very quietly in case Trump does not run in 2020.

    It is really sad for our country that much as a number of Republicans spent a large amount of time away from their jobs as public servants to spend many months campaigning in 2016, we will now have a number of Democrats spending almost two years campaigning and raising money rather than doing their day jobs. Though I guess some might argue that this is a good thing.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by mattman91 View Post
    It could happen, but it would be political suicide.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    Part of the argument around Bernie staying in during the 2016 campaign, as all will recall, is that the Dems needed a Plan B candidate "in case" something happened to Hillary on the email investigation front. If I was a Republican, I would have to consider -- what are the odds that come the Republican Convention in the summer of 2020, Trump's legal problems look insurmountable? "Individual 1," whoever that is, has been named as an unindicted co-conspirator in federal court. Without getting into the various investigations or their propriety, it is not beyond reason to surmise that Trump could be a severely hampered candidate eighteen months from now.

    The base is clearly with Trump, and if they aren't shaken off by now there is little that could do it I suspect. But one arguable lesson from the mid-terms is that playing to the base does not equate to electoral success in the general. It's a real pickle for the GOP. (And one the Dems will have to wrestle with too, between "progressives" and "moderates" if I can use those labels loosely).
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.
    Flake has said that it is a possibility for him.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Flake has said that it is a possibility for him.
    John Kasich has been a vocal critic of Trump from the right and could probably gather a strong showing of both Dems and Republicans who are more in the middle since it seems both parties are heading in opposite directions further to the extremes. Plus, he's already shown a propensity to run for the office and, presumably, he has the support of Ohio, an important swing state. I could see him making a challenge.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    I thought you were going to ignore this thread for 6 months. Didn't even last 2 hours. So much for resolutions.
    Oh, I'll be checking out soon (today) but people always read the follow up posts. Get serious :-)

    Then you guys are free to grind away in this thread for 23-24 months. Hahahaha, that's absurd.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.
    I had posted this in an earlier, but it's interesting enough to post again.

    An ELECTED President has only ever been "primaried" (that is lost in their party's primary) once. That was Franklin Pierce (#14) who lose the 1856 Democratic primary to James Buchanan. Pierce's appeasement of the south led many northern abolitionists to seek another candidate.

    Four other Presidents did not win their primary, but none of them were elected.
    * John Tyler who lost the 1844 Whig primary after assuming the Presidency after the death of William Henry Harrison.
    * Millard Fillmore who lost the 1852 Whig primary after assuming the Presidency after the death of Zachary Taylor.
    * Andrew Johnson who lost the 1868 Democratic primary after assuming the Presidency after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. We was also impeached and *barely* avoided being convicted by a Republican congress.
    * Chester Arthur who lost the 1884 Republican primary after assuming the Presidency after the assassination of James Garfield.

    A number of Presidents have had strong challenges that caused them to drop out before the nomination was decided. Namely Presidents Johnson and Truman.

    In recent history, it looks like Presidents who have a strong primary challenge usually end up losing the General election. I imagine party division is a factor here, hence the strong challenge.

    Ford (challenged by Reagan in 1976), Carter (challenged by Kennedy) in 1980, George H Bush (challenged by Buchanan) in 1992 all left the sitting Presidents vulnerable and a party somewhat divided, enough for them all to lose the election.

    Nixon (challenged by McCloskey) in 1972 appears to be the exception...and upon further review, I question if he were really challenged in the primary.

    [edit] to correct info on Nixon.
    Last edited by PackMan97; 01-02-2019 at 11:41 AM.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Nixon (challenged by McCloskey) in 1972, Ford (challenged by Reagan in 1976), Carter (challenged by Kennedy) in 1980, George H Bush (challenged by Buchanan) in 1992 all left the sitting Presidents vulnerable and a party somewhat divided, enough for them all to lose the election.
    Nixon won the 1972 election. He defeated McGovern.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Nixon won the 1972 election. He defeated McGovern.
    updated the post. I need to do my own research instead of relying on the interwebs. /facepalm

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    updated the post. I need to do my own research instead of relying on the interwebs. /facepalm
    You might be thinking Eugene McCarthy in 1968 against Nixon, although Nixon was not a sitting president.

    Turns out, there is a movement amongst some Republicans to basically cancel the primary and declare Trump the candidate. Will likely come to some sort of vote next month when the GOP meets in New Mexico. The Chairperson? Mitt's niece, who slapped Mitt this morning on Twitter for his op-ed against Trump.

    So, there's all that. Fun times.
    Last edited by OldPhiKap; 01-02-2019 at 12:14 PM.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

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