2020 Presidential Election

[YmoBeThere]

I approve of this message.

I believe that the cake is baked. My prediction also includes Biden winning Texas (I had wanted to be the first on DBR to predict it, though).

I didn't explicitly say Biden takes TX, but my vote count requires it.

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...02#post1298202

I have been going back and forth on Texas the last few weeks but my gut just tells me it will swing blue. The NYT is releasing a Texas poll today and I almost waited for that to come out but my gut just felt good this morning about it.

Being on the ground here in Texas, in the second most liberal city after Austin*, I'm not as confident. 800k votes is a lot to make up. Sure, 140k of that gap will likely be closed by dimished viability of 3rd party options. When I voted on Saturday, there were several nay many 1st time voters in line. (Election monitors clapped every time a 1st time voter came through.) They were mostly young LatinX college students. It will be much closer than 2016, but still seems a tall hill to climb.

[budwom]

Being on the ground here in Texas, in the second most liberal city after Austin*, I'm not as confident. 800k votes is a lot to make up. Sure, 140k of that gap will likely be closed by dimished viability of 3rd party options. When I voted on Saturday, there were several nay many 1st time voters in line. (Election monitors clapped every time a 1st time voter came through.) They were mostly young LatinX college students. It will be much closer than 2016, but still seems a tall hill to climb.

yeah, I'm heavily inclined to agree,just can't see that happening yet.

[rsvman]

Considering that the Senate leadership was openly stating that they would not confirm her appointees, no, it's not obvious that President Clinton II would have had such appointments. You also pick on the word "packing" which, fine, but the underlying point is real: Obama appointees way beyond Garland were ignored and delayed; Trump appointees have been rushed through at record pace.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgo...cies-to-trump/

Apparently you missed the part of my post where I stipulated that the supposition also required the Democrats to control both houses.

I agree that Garland should have been appointed.

[LasVegas]

NYT/Siena finds Trump up 47-43 in Texas. Largely due to Biden’s weakness with nonwhite voters. Weird...

[cato]

NYT/Siena finds Trump up 47-43 in Texas. Largely due to Biden’s weakness with nonwhite voters. Weird...

This shows how tricky it is to pull together a national coalition. The things that make Biden an appealing candidate to white voters in the upper Midwest and many black voters in the South are causing issues with Biden’s standing with younger non-white left leaning voters everywhere.

[House P]

Here are the questions, so you know what to expect when you click the link to vote.

1. How will the Presidential race come out?
Biden landslide, 350+ EVsBiden comfortable win, 320-249 EVs
Biden safe win 300-319 EVs
Biden narrow win 270-299 EVs
Electoral college tie
Chaos, vote totals uncertain and we head to court
Trump narrow win 270-299 EVs
Trump clear win 300+ EVs

I don't necessarily see the bolded response above as mutually exclusive with any of the other options.

[Tappan Zee Devil]

Just voted. Waited for two hours in a cold drizzle.

Even here in New York State, where our votes "don't count" as much as in swing states, people seem motivated to vote.

[PackMan97]

Apparently you missed the part of my post where I stipulated that the supposition also required the Democrats to control both houses.

I agree that Garland should have been appointed.

Garland should have had his confirmation vote up or down. Whether he should have been appointed is for politicians to answer. I'm a bit upset the Senate punted on their constitutional duty to advice and consent and it was definitely one thing that influenced my vote in the NC Senate race.

I see no problem if the Senate wants to say, "This guy does not share our understanding of the constitution and we will not confirm him". I expect that to happen when the Senate and the White House are of a different party. In fact, I wish that would happen more often.

It would not surprise me at all with a Biden win that Beyer retires, or with a Trump win that Alito and Thomas retire. The Scalia and Ginsberg openings show up how much things get politicized when justices try and hold out for 4 to 8 more years when they hope a President that shares their legal philosophy is in the White House.

[Wander]

Bunch of Texas polls released on 538 today. They range from Trump +5 to Biden +13. I have no idea what to think or expect there. Maybe it'll come down to the effects of all that sketchy stuff of combining drop-off polling locations.

[Kdogg]

DBR Polling time!!!

Ok, we are a week and a day out, time for all of us to weigh in with our predictions. I have created a survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/TR7LFWG

It asks about the presidential race in a few different ways and also asks about the Senate and the House as well as a few of the most closely watched Senate races. Lets see what we all think!

Here are the questions, so you know what to expect when you click the link to vote.

1. How will the Presidential race come out?
Biden landslide, 350+ EVs
Biden comfortable win, 320-249 EVs
Biden safe win 300-319 EVs
Biden narrow win 270-299 EVs
Electoral college tie
Chaos, vote totals uncertain and we head to court
Trump narrow win 270-299 EVs
Trump clear win 300+ EVs

2. Will the networks call the Presidential race by 7am Wednesday morning?
Yes
No

3. Whether officially called or not, will the result of the election be clear by 11pm on election night?
Yes
No

4. Will either campaign sue to overturn the results of a state or to stop vote counting in a state?
Yes
No

5. How will the Senate come out?
Democrats win 54+ seats
Democrats win 52-53 seats
Democrats win 51-52 seats
50-50 senate, VP breaks the tie
Republicans maintain control of the Senate

6. The GOP needs to flip 18 seats to control the House. In the 2020 election...
Democrats will gain 10+ seats
Democrats will gain 1-9 seats
Democrats will lose 1-8 seats but maintain control
Democrats will lose 9-17 seats but maintain control
Republicans will win 18+ seats and regain control

7. Which candidate will win Florida?
Biden
Trump
2000 redux, so close that it is unclear and the courts decide

8. Who will win the South Carolina senate race?
Incumbent GOP Lindsay Graham
Challenger Dem Jamie Harrison

9. Who will win the North Carolina senate race?
Incumbent GOP Tom Tillis
Challenger Dem Cal Cunningham

10. Who will win the Georgia senate race
Incumbent GOP David Purdue
Challenger Dem John Ossoff

Do you want to know what my head says or my gut because they are in conflict?

[PackMan97]

1. How will the Presidential race come out?
Biden landslide, 350+ EVs

2. Will the networks call the Presidential race by 7am Wednesday morning?
Yes

3. Whether officially called or not, will the result of the election be clear by 11pm on election night?
Yes

4. Will either campaign sue to overturn the results of a state or to stop vote counting in a state?
Yes

5. How will the Senate come out?
Democrats win 52-53 seats

6. The GOP needs to flip 18 seats to control the House. In the 2020 election...
Democrats will gain 10+ seats

7. Which candidate will win Florida?
Biden

8. Who will win the South Carolina senate race?
Challenger Dem Jamie Harrison

9. Who will win the North Carolina senate race?
Challenger Dem Cal Cunningham

10. Who will win the Georgia senate race
Challenger Dem John Ossoff

Republicans will rue the day they went Trump/Nationalist/Anti-science and they'll have no clear way out of their trap.

[tommy]

It would not surprise me at all with a Biden win that Beyer retires

He better. From the Dems perspective, the nightmare scenario that resulted from RBG not retiring when she should have under Obama, simply cannot happen again. And if Breyer does retire, Biden should not consider any potential replacement who is more than 50 years old.

[JasonEvans]

Selected DBR Poll responses so far:

[jacone21]

Not at all hard to imagine that the Ossoff-Purdue race also goes to a runoff. That has happened in the past in Georgia when the Libertarian takes 1-2%. In fact, there is a real possibility that the fate of the Senate hangs on 2 Ga runoffs the first week of January. I cannot even fathom the amount of spending that would pour into the state in that case.

Yay! 2 more months of TV being unwatchable. Never thought I would long for the prescription drug commercials.

[AustinDevil]

Apparently you missed the part of my post where I stipulated that the supposition also required the Democrats to control both houses.

I agree that Garland should have been appointed.

Quite right, I did. (And not that it matters, but you seem to mean that Garland should have been confirmed? He was nominated; appointed isn't really a word that fits here.)

[wilson]

Yay! 2 more months of TV being unwatchable. Never thought I would long for the prescription drug commercials.

[Udaman]

Will do my predictions a week from today (too stressed to do them now).

One thing to point out - if Biden wins DC, Mass., Vermont, Hawaii, Maryland, California, New York, Rhode Island, Delaware, Washington, Connecticut, Maine 1, New Jersey, Oregon, Illinois, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and Maine (all of which he's favored by over 90%), and New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Wisconsin (all he's favored to win by 88% or more), then Trump absolutely must win

Texas
Georgia
Florida
North Carolina
Arizona
Pennsylvania
Ohio

Right now, he's not at 70% or more in any of those states and is forecast to lose 4 of them.

Obviously it could still happen, but everything has to break right for him. And if the polls I've seen are close to being accurate - that he's lost ground from 2016 with Seniors and Independents (coupled with the numbers showing new voters that are predominantly Democratic), it could be a short night. I really hope so - not (just) because I'm pulling for Biden, but I just shudder at the idea of a contested election. Would be the worst way to end a truly awful year.

All that said, I agree with a tweet I read this morning that said "the next 8 days are going to be the longest year of my life."

[rsvman]

Quite right, I did. (And not that it matters, but you seem to mean that Garland should have been confirmed? He was nominated; appointed isn't really a word that fits here.)

Yes. Sorry about the poor word choice. Bottom line is I thought the railroading of that hearing and vote was ridiculous.

[Skydog]

Not at all hard to imagine that the Ossoff-Purdue race also goes to a runoff. That has happened in the past in Georgia when the Libertarian takes 1-2%. In fact, there is a real possibility that the fate of the Senate hangs on 2 Ga runoffs the first week of January. I cannot even fathom the amount of spending that would pour into the state in that case.

Why Jason, why? You've added yet another nightmare scenario for me to worry about. Biden wins but his power to pass laws and the Dems finally being allowed to make judicial appointments would still hang on two GA runoffs to be held in 2021? Two more months of poll watching while both parties concentrate all their national resources into two state elections? The prolonged uncertainty, endless ads, dirty tricks and lawsuits, oh my!

[niveklaen]

Why Jason, why? You've added yet another nightmare scenario for me to worry about. Biden wins but his power to pass laws and the Dems finally being allowed to make judicial appointments would still hang on two GA runoffs to be held in 2021? Two more months of poll watching while both parties concentrate all their national resources into two state elections? The prolonged uncertainty, endless ads, dirty tricks and lawsuits, oh my!

Would someone have to have already been registered to vote for the nov 3 election to be eligible to vote in the runoff or could new people become residents and register between the election and the runoff?

asking for a friend...