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  1. #1221
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    ... the Democrats have a golden opportunity in 2020 if they can craft a positive, inclusive message around expanding opportunity and security in a way that reflects modern economic reality, and avoid retrenching ... it's not clear to me that their field of Presidential contenders can produce someone capable of exploiting this opportunity ...
    I agree with the golden opportunity. With #metoo, Trump's perceived misogyny, and HRC winning the popular vote in 2016, it would seem a not-policy-loopy, not-high-negatives-like-HRC woman might win in a cakewalk. Klobuchar might fit the bill the most -- former corporate lawyer, former prosecutor, Midwesterner. In short, to win via the easiest path, I think the Dems should *only* consider nominating a woman, and then do *not* make the historic nature of the first-woman-president a feature of the campaign the way HRC did -- rather, simply address kitchen table issues, and let the gender issue stay ostensibly in the background -- women motivated by such a thing will notice it and turn out in droves given Trump; it need not be touted; and I think some Repubs would get behind the candidacy the way some did the historic nature of BHO's 2008 election in a "it's time" way.

  2. #1222
    Join Date
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    This is key. Last election, there was video of Trump bragging about his ability to commit sexual assault and polling showed that it had very little effect on Republican voters. Here's a link to an article describing a CBS poll that shows 90%+ of Trump supporters in Ohio and Pennsylvania didn't change their view of him shortly after the tape broke to the public. So, I highly doubt this allegation will have any meaningful effect on this race.
    You have to remember, Wikileaks dumped a bunch of emails within hours of that tape's release. You have to admit the strategy is effective. What will it be this time? And the next?

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nat...X5O/story.html

  3. #1223
    Add Joe Sestak to the list of Dems running. Heís a former PA Congressman and is retired from the US Navy. He was a 3 star vice admiral.

    I kind of thought we were done. Iíll be interested in what he sees as a gap in the current candidate set.

  4. #1224
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    I'm not sure anything has "legs" in today's environment. Re the recent allegations that have been discussed and their impact on the race, on the msn.com homepage there is a button for "Trending Now", which opens this page:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news

    Of the 22 items at the top, it is not mentioned. The next subgroup of news is "U.S.", not mentioned in 16 items. The next subgroup is "Politics", and it is not mentioned in these 16 items.

    How many days ago was this "blockbuster revelation", 2 days? And it is already off the news. And we have 499 days to the election. OMG, what a depressing thought.

  5. #1225
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    Allegations without any form of corroboration have little value or meaning. Especially so when the person making the allegations had released a book at the same time.
    I would say yes, allegations with little corroboration in the past have definitely had impact on a candidate's numbers. I would say that for whatever reason, Trump is immune to allegations, regardless of the level of proof/corroboration. I don't say this as a criticism, but rather that he is as close to "bulletproof" as I can fathom. You like him or you don't, and not much moves the needle.

  6. #1226
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Add Joe Sestak to the list of Dems running. Heís a former PA Congressman and is retired from the US Navy. He was a 3 star vice admiral.

    I kind of thought we were done. Iíll be interested in what he sees as a gap in the current candidate set.
    Article I read mentioned his daughter besting brain cancer for the second time -- gotta give one perspective and also a "I don't really care about the noise and nonsense" type outlook, I'd think. AG Barr adopted the same sort of perspective in an interview I read recently, talking about his daughter's health battle (also cancer, I believe).

  7. #1227
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Add Joe Sestak to the list of Dems running. Heís a former PA Congressman and is retired from the US Navy. He was a 3 star vice admiral.

    I kind of thought we were done. Iíll be interested in what he sees as a gap in the current candidate set.
    Odd timing to join, given that the first debates are this week. Way too late to get on the stage, so right off the bat his voice won't be heard.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #1228
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I would say yes, allegations with little corroboration in the past have definitely had impact on a candidate's numbers. I would say that for whatever reason, Trump is immune to allegations, regardless of the level of proof/corroboration. I don't say this as a criticism, but rather that he is as close to "bulletproof" as I can fathom. You like him or you don't, and not much moves the needle.
    I don't think Trump is immune to allegations or his thousands of wild statements and lies, they're just already priced in. He's historically unpopular despite record unemployment and no major war abroad. If you said that about any other president in history, it'd immediately suggest some domestic scandal. The real question I think people wondering if Trump is bulletproof are asking is: what would cause Trump to experience base erosion and send his levels to the lowest of the historical lows?

    FiveThirtyEight has an interesting data visualization that compares Trump's approval rating to those of all past Presidents to Truman (scroll to bottom). Through 885 days, Trump carries the lowest average approval rating. A couple President's briefly dipped below his numbers here and there. If you click the '4 or 8 years' timeframe, you can see that Presidential approval ratings that dropped and stayed in the 30s or 20s ---signifying base collapse --- have been EXTREMELY rare. In general (though not exclusively), those extreme lows can be attributed to one or a combination of three factors: recession, war, or severe scandal. (Yeah, I know, way to go out on a limb with that hot take...)

    So, Trump is far from bulletproof, there just aren't many people who haven't made up their minds on him based on available information. There's no reason to think that after 20+ women have accused Trump of sexual misconduct, 1 more accuser is going to miraculously move the needle for his base. You'd need something new and exceptional that directly impacted them. If history is any guide, that'd have to be war or recession. Given the segmentation in the media, I'm not convinced the weight or severity of any scandal would make its way through the various filters.

  9. #1229
    It will be interesting to see how Buttigieg holds up with his hometown issue. White cop shooting an (alleged) knife wielding black man. South Bend has body cameras but for some reason the cops was off.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/23/polit...-st=1561333017

  10. #1230
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    I don't think Trump is immune to allegations or his thousands of wild statements and lies, they're just already priced in. He's historically unpopular despite record unemployment and no major war abroad. If you said that about any other president in history, it'd immediately suggest some domestic scandal. The real question I think people wondering if Trump is bulletproof are asking is: what would cause Trump to experience base erosion and send his levels to the lowest of the historical lows?

    FiveThirtyEight has an interesting data visualization that compares Trump's approval rating to those of all past Presidents to Truman (scroll to bottom). Through 885 days, Trump carries the lowest average approval rating. A couple President's briefly dipped below his numbers here and there. If you click the '4 or 8 years' timeframe, you can see that Presidential approval ratings that dropped and stayed in the 30s or 20s ---signifying base collapse --- have been EXTREMELY rare. In general (though not exclusively), those extreme lows can be attributed to one or a combination of three factors: recession, war, or severe scandal. (Yeah, I know, way to go out on a limb with that hot take...)

    So, Trump is far from bulletproof, there just aren't many people who haven't made up their minds on him based on available information. There's no reason to think that after 20+ women have accused Trump of sexual misconduct, 1 more accuser is going to miraculously move the needle for his base. You'd need something new and exceptional that directly impacted them. If history is any guide, that'd have to be war or recession. Given the segmentation in the media, I'm not convinced the weight or severity of any scandal would make its way through the various filters.
    Recession likely coming early next year, although it probably won't be severe.
    Current economic book is the longest in recorded US history, so a recession is inevitable.

  11. #1231
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Wednesday debate participants:

    Elizabeth Warren

    Beto OíRourke
    Cory Booker
    Amy Klobuchar

    John Delaney
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Julian Castro
    Tim Ryan
    Bill de Blasio
    Jay Inslee

    My guess is that Warren walks away the winner of this group. She has a chance to dominate, without anyone really going after her too hard.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  12. #1232
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Wednesday debate participants:

    Elizabeth Warren

    Beto OíRourke
    Cory Booker
    Amy Klobuchar

    John Delaney
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Julian Castro
    Tim Ryan
    Bill de Blasio
    Jay Inslee

    My guess is that Warren walks away the winner of this group. She has a chance to dominate, without anyone really going after her too hard.
    I think I disagree with you here OPK. She's really the only person in this group worth going after hard. Can they reasonably go after the front runners who are on the next night, it's kinda bad form, the person isn't there to defend his/herself. Plus there is such limited time with such a big field, how many people can you bash, you have to spend at least some of your time promoting yourself and your ideas (I would hope).

    I do think she has the chance to dominate, regardless of what anyone thinks of her policies she's pretty sharp. However, with a stage this crowded, and especially our short attention span populace, the one-line zinger is probably what will dominate. Who has it in their quiver?

  13. #1233
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    I think I disagree with you here OPK. She's really the only person in this group worth going after hard. Can they reasonably go after the front runners who are on the next night, it's kinda bad form, the person isn't there to defend his/herself. Plus there is such limited time with such a big field, how many people can you bash, you have to spend at least some of your time promoting yourself and your ideas (I would hope).

    I do think she has the chance to dominate, regardless of what anyone thinks of her policies she's pretty sharp. However, with a stage this crowded, and especially our short attention span populace, the one-line zinger is probably what will dominate. Who has it in their quiver?
    I think this is going to be a huge non-event. Each person is going to be just giving pre-scripted sound bites and there will be absolutely no debate or dialogue. I will try to watch but I don't expect it to really move the needle. One of the lesser-known candidates might jump out a little bit and one of the better-known candidates would really have to screw up. There just isn't enough time for much to happen. I am most interested to see how much of it is putting forth policy vs. bashing Trump.

  14. #1234
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I think this is going to be a huge non-event. Each person is going to be just giving pre-scripted sound bites and there will be absolutely no debate or dialogue. I will try to watch but I don't expect it to really move the needle. One of the lesser-known candidates might jump out a little bit and one of the better-known candidates would really have to screw up. There just isn't enough time for much to happen. I am most interested to see how much of it is putting forth policy vs. bashing Trump.
    It's going to be brief talking points. How many minutes will each candidate have total? I predict a hot mess.

  15. #1235
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post

    Lizzie Warren is in... and that is a bad sign for her chances. Typically, the strongest candidates wait as long as they can to get in the race. I expect Biden, Beto, Booker, Bloomberg, Harris, and Gillibrand to wait until at least February to join the fray.
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I could have counted at least 10 other candidates that I would have predicted to announce before Warren, especially with all of her talk about how she wasn't interested in running. I think you are correct that the stronger candidates wait; they don't need to jump in so early and introduce themselves.
    Quoting the very first two posts of this thread. Back then, we were surprised that Warren jumped in so early, and several of us were prognosticating her losing effort.

    Maybe she knew what she was doing.
    Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders have broken out as frontrunners for young liberal voters, according to a new straw poll conducted by the progressive group NextGen, pulling ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden, who retains his lead in national polls as the first Democratic debates are about to begin here.

    The polling results to be released Tuesday afternoon, first viewed and reported by Yahoo News, show Warren with a huge lead among respondents ages 18 to 35, with 39 percent, compared with 26 percent for Sanders, the runner-up.
    Note that Biden still has the lead in the overall polls, but with the younger crowd it appears that Warren and Sanders are the ones to beat.
    Of course, this only matters if the younger voters actually get off the couch and vote, which is something they tend not to do.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/warren-ha...133454147.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  16. #1236
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Quoting the very first two posts of this thread. Back then, we were surprised that Warren jumped in so early, and several of us were prognosticating her losing effort.

    Maybe she knew what she was doing.

    Note that Biden still has the lead in the overall polls, but with the younger crowd it appears that Warren and Sanders are the ones to beat.
    Of course, this only matters if the younger voters actually get off the couch and vote, which is something they tend not to do.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/warren-ha...133454147.html

    As a person in the middle of that age group, that is really surprising to me. I don't think I know a single person who prefers Warren against the field.

    Edit:

    Those figures were from a total of 4,418 of participants who had signed on to the email and text-message lists for NextGen, a PAC run by billionaire liberal activist Tom Steyer. The results cannot be extrapolated to the electorate as a whole, or even Democratic primary voters
    I'm going to suggest this poll is not very representative.

  17. #1237
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    I'm not sure how broadly her latest policy point (reparations for gay couple forced to file federal taxes single instead of jointly) will appeal. It's not necessarily a horrible idea, but this is not the kind of issue that brings moderates over and wins elections.

  18. #1238
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    In the Politics Makes Strange Bedfellows department, I got to take a private tour of a huge military firing range and training facility today (including a great biathlon facility), and heard copious words of praise for Senator Bernie who evidently procured a bunch of much needed funding for them...had not expected to hear that.

  19. #1239
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    All of Biden's gaffes are crushing him in the polls...not. In the latest weekly tracking poll, his support hasn't budged an inch and nobody else is separating from the pack.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...ocrats-1380317

    I think Bernie's ceiling is 20%. So if there is to be a challenger, who will it be?

    Re the supposed gaffes, I think they are baked in with Biden just as certain things are baked in with Trump. And when you look at the comparison between the two's supposed liabilities, maybe the Ds have learned not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    The Ds want to beat Trump. That will trump all other considerations. They are not going to go far left in this election.

  20. #1240
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I'm going to suggest this poll is not very representative.
    Ooooh, I missed that part. Yeah, that's like polling if K or Roy is the better coach at a game in Cameron.
    K would only win by a slight margin if they asked the same thing in Chapel Hill.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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