2020 Presidential Election

[CrazyNotCrazie]

It’s like when your kids fight. “I don’t care who started it — just end it now!”

This dynamic is why I gave up party affiliation years ago and self-identify as an independent.

I think that is the beef most of the commenters have - yes, the Dems might have brought some (but definitely not all) of this upon themselves, but McConnell seems to basically be admitting that rather than taking the high road, he seems to be taking it to the next level. And by writing this in an op-ed in the NYT, whose readership tends to skew heavily to the left (and whose news writers are trying their best, with mixed results, to stay down the middle), it feels like rubbing it in.

[left_hook_lacey]

David Koch, the more political of the Koch brothers, has died.

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/08/23/pol...www.cnn.com%2F

Apparently Koch et al has been staying out of the presidential election business in the Trump era, but I still imagine this will have an effect on 2020.

Faked his death as to not be indicted in the Epstein investigation. He's living on the "other" sin island that the cops didn't know about.

No, wait, Clinton's had him killed. The body count is adding up.

No, wait, it was Trump, Koch's helped with Russia collusion, which is why the Koch's stayed out of presidential politics of late, at least publicly.🙃

[bundabergdevil]

Faked his death as to not be indicted in the Epstein investigation. He's living on the "other" sin island that the cops didn't know about.

No, wait, Clinton's had him killed. The body count is adding up.

No, wait, it was Trump, Koch's helped with Russia collusion, which is why the Koch's stayed out of presidential politics of late, at least publicly.🙃

You got it all wrong, David Koch is Mike Pence, Face/Off style!

[bundabergdevil]

Some high level analysis from 538 on the flurry of recent polling. Key takeaways:

1. Hispanic democrats haven't coalesced around a favorite yet. The article notes Biden has the AFAM vote but that the Hispanic vote is up for grabs. That seems like a HUGE opportunity for one of the candidates but my gut says they'd be mistaken to assume that demographic only cares about immigration. That's why they're listening to Democrats over Republicans, not why they'll get behind one of the candidates.

2. Harris and Warren are attracting a disproportionate share of college-educated Democratic voters, which the article posits could be more openness to a female president among those with higher education.

3. Beto and Booker are still way behind. Not sure any of us really thought to the contrary. Maybe they should form a buddy cop show instead. Beto and Booker has a nice ring to it...or maybe Booker and Beto.

4. Still too early for general election poll tea leaves...

I continue to be surprised by how poorly the Dem Governors have polled. Maybe that's my own resume bias showing...

[OldPhiKap]

Some high level analysis from 538 on the flurry of recent polling. Key takeaways:

1. Hispanic democrats haven't coalesced around a favorite yet. The article notes Biden has the AFAM vote but that the Hispanic vote is up for grabs. That seems like a HUGE opportunity for one of the candidates but my gut says they'd be mistaken to assume that demographic only cares about immigration. That's why they're listening to Democrats over Republicans, not why they'll get behind one of the candidates.

2. Harris and Warren are attracting a disproportionate share of college-educated Democratic voters, which the article posits could be more openness to a female president among those with higher education.

3. Beto and Booker are still way behind. Not sure any of us really thought to the contrary. Maybe they should form a buddy cop show instead. Beto and Booker has a nice ring to it...or maybe Booker and Beto.

4. Still too early for general election poll tea leaves...

I continue to be surprised by how poorly the Dem Governors have polled. Maybe that's my own resume bias showing...

"Book 'em, Beto"

[bundabergdevil]

"Book 'em, Beto"

On arresting a female perp: “Book ‘er, Beto!”

[OldPhiKap]

On arresting a female perp: “Book ‘er, Beto!”

Even better.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Some guy that nobody outside of Massachusetts has heard of has dropped out of the race.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/seth-moul...135101941.html

[budwom]

Some guy that nobody outside of Massachusetts has heard of has dropped out of the race.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/seth-moul...135101941.html

When I saw that today, I honestly thought he was a comedian...

[Reddevil]

Polling suggests that 18% of Americans believe in Alien Abduction, 17% have seen a UFO (of which I am a member of that group), 11% of Americans think it would be fun to be abducted by an alien, and over half think Aliens exist.

At this point, I just don't take polls seriously. People just aren't that smart. Ask yourself, how many Carolina fans think Carolina doesn't/didn't cheat? I'm sorry...I'll cast my vote on election day and that's the only poll that matters.

Aliens? Are you referring to undocumented extraterrestrials?

[JasonEvans]

I think that is the beef most of the commenters have - yes, the Dems might have brought some (but definitely not all) of this upon themselves, but McConnell seems to basically be admitting that rather than taking the high road, he seems to be taking it to the next level. And by writing this in an op-ed in the NYT, whose readership tends to skew heavily to the left (and whose news writers are trying their best, with mixed results, to stay down the middle), it feels like rubbing it in.

All the talk about getting stuff done takes me back to something I find utterly inexplicable... how is it that Dems and Republicans have not been able to even get an infrastructure bill passed? Both sides want it and they even agreed on the basic framework for it a while back but, so far, no votes. And, as we really enter election season this fall/winter, I would not be at all surprised if the two sides were unwilling to make a deal that might be seen as benefiting the other in an election fight (this is especially true of Democrats who don't want to give Trump a showy signing ceremony).

If they cannot agree on something as simple and basic as "let's spend some money to repair our roads, bridges, and electrical grid" then I'm not sure they can ever work together on anything.

-Jason "sigh" Evans

[Bob Green]

If they cannot agree on something as simple and basic as "let's spend some money to repair our roads, bridges, and electrical grid" then I'm not sure they can ever work together on anything.

-Jason "sigh" Evans

This is a truly sad state of affairs. We deserve better as a nation but we (voters) have no one to blame but ourselves. Most voters despise congress as a whole but are quick to stick up for their guy.

[cato]

3. Beto and Booker are still way behind. Not sure any of us really thought to the contrary. Maybe they should form a buddy cop show instead. Beto and Booker has a nice ring to it...or maybe Booker and Beto.

This may be a better idea than anything anyone in either campaign has come up with yet. Booker as the straight-laced by-the-book career detective gets paired with new kid on the block Beto, who shoots from the heart in the name of justice.

[Indoor66]

This may be a better idea than anything anyone in either campaign has come up with yet. Booker as the straight-laced by-the-book career detective gets paired with new kid on the block Beto, who shoots from the heart in the name of justice.

Sounds like a comedy act.

[JasonEvans]

This may be a better idea than anything anyone in either campaign has come up with yet. Booker as the straight-laced by-the-book career detective gets paired with new kid on the block Beto, who shoots from the heart in the name of justice.

Netflix has just bought this pitch and ordered an 8-episode season one with an option for a full 4-season commitment. Aaron Sorkin is on board as the show-runner.

[dudog84]

Sounds like a comedy act.

Ah, but nobody tops the headliner.

[JasonEvans]

This is a truly sad state of affairs. We deserve better as a nation but we (voters) have no one to blame but ourselves. Most voters despise congress as a whole but are quick to stick up for their guy.

I mean, what choice do we really have? As a lifelong abortion rights, healthcare reform, get rid of corporate tax loopholes Democrat who is somewhat frustrated at the way the Democrats operate while in power am I supposed to vote for a Republican? As a pro-business, build the wall, Bible loving Republican who thinks the GOP is being run by a lying womanizer am I supposed to vote for a Democrat?

Our only real option is to support outsider, insurgent candidates who are trying to primary the existing supported-by-the-leadership representative (like AOC, for example). There just aren't many chance for something like that to happen.

This is why I think ranked choice voting (aka, instant runoff) would be very interesting nationwide as it would give voters a chance to show their displeasure in the two major parties while not "throwing their vote away."

-Jason "worth noting that as one looks around the globe, there is a whole lot of political chaos (Italy, UK being most recent examples) and not many places where voters really like the folks in charge" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I happened across this poll that shows some real trouble for the GOP efforts to hold onto a key seat.



Democrat Mark Kelly is trying to unseat Martha McSally, who was defeated in the race with Kyrsten Sinema in 2018 but then got appointed to the retiring John Kyl's seat by the GOP governor of the state (because having the voters expressly pick someone else is a great way of proving you belong in the Senate). Of major concern for the McSAlly/GOP are these numbers that show she has really, really high unfavorables while Kelly is still relatively unknown.



Kelly is a great story... former astronaut and gulf war fighter pilot who is the husband of Gabby Giffords (who had to resign her House seat after an assassination attempt left her badly wounded). He was a lifelong independent, who became a Democrat fairly recently. He would be tough to beat under even the most favorable of situations, but he is also a hero, a war vet, and can pull at voters heartstrings. A truly formidable candidate. I have not heard him speak, but if he is any good on his feet, I could see him as a future Democratic star.

-Jason "between the Arizona and Colorado seats, the SW is becoming increasingly blue" Evans

[Troublemaker]

David Koch, the more political of the Koch brothers, has died.

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/08/23/pol...www.cnn.com%2F

Apparently Koch et al has been staying out of the presidential election business in the Trump era, but I still imagine this will have an effect on 2020.

Not really. The Kochs are a boogeyman on the left much the same way that the right treats George Soros. And, in fact, if memory serves, I'm pretty sure Trump blasted the Kochs over twitter (what are the odds!) at one point during the 2016 campaign, and the hot take on twitter/facebook/etc from the left was that Trump was done. He had gone and messed with the wrong people.

In other health news, hopefully Justice Ginsburg is fully recovered from her latest bout with pancreatic cancer. This thread has been talking about escalation, and I can't imagine anything stoking the fires as much as the R Senate trying to confirm a Justice in an election year after what happened in 2016. (And, yes, the Rs absolutely would try for it, hypocrisy be danged).

[dudog84]

Speaking of interesting polls, I saw this yesterday re Kentucky. Caveat it was commissioned by a D group, but 538 gives the polling company a B-.

For Governor, challenger D Andy Beshear has 48%, incumbent R Matt Bevin 39%. That was the summary that led me to the details page, where they also asked about Mitch. Mitch has a 56% unfavorable rating (43% very unfavorable) vs. 39% favorable. That has to be unprecedented for a leader of the Senate or House, voters usually know at least their guy has power (even if they don't like him, they like the power). Mitch's unfavorable rating is even worse than Bevin's who is getting trounced by his opponent, of course Mitch doesn't have an opponent yet.

Anyone from Kentucky with insight? Is Mitch really in trouble?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1u8Y...rSim3zjLJ/view