2020 Presidential Election

[swood1000]

we have conventional politicians reserving judgment on whether statues of George Washington should be taken down, whether police departments across the country should be uniformly defunded, whether mobs are at least partially to be excused after looting and burning small businesses, which PC violation or expression of opinion requires banishment.

People keep making statements like this without citation. What “conventional politicians” are espousing these views?

Link, please.

Well, of course, we could disagree about the definition of “conventional politician.” An argument could be made that support for any of these matters (except the PC violation one) ipso facto renders a politician non-conventional, but I think that the following should qualify (the text is not my opinion but represents what the sources reported, some of which are opinionated):

we have conventional politicians reserving judgment on
 

• whether statues of George Washington should be taken down,

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) told CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday that "we should listen to the argument" for removing George Washington statues. https://www.axios.com/tammy-duckwort...83f6f7ba6.html
 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday said "people will do what they do" in response to a question about the toppling of a statue of Christopher Columbus in Baltimore, adding that if a community doesn't want a statue, "the statue shouldn't be there." https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5...people-will-do
 

Just a few weeks ago, Pelosi expressed her indifference about the desecration of statues of St. Junipero Serra in California, despite her Catholic faith, saying in reference to the pioneering saint who served Native Americans, “I think we should all review the statues and make decisions.” https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/09...-what-they-do/
 

• whether police departments across the country should be uniformly defunded,

In their boldest statement since George Floyd’s killing, nine Minneapolis City Council members told a crowd Sunday that they will “begin the process of ending the Minneapolis Police Department.” https://www.startribune.com/mpls-cou.../?refresh=true
 

Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York said for the first time that he would divert city funds from the New York Police Department to youth and social services. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1269713565193252871
 

LA Mayor Slashes LAPD Budget As Calls To ‘Defund Police’ Slowly Pick Up Steam https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbre.../#29d264d1ba36
 

Washington, D.C., Mayor Murial Bowser on Friday dedicated "Black Lives Matter Plaza" on a street near the White House. Later, protesters added an equals sign and the words "defund the police" to the mural. When asked whether she would remove the unauthorized changes to her government's street mural on ABC's "This Week," Bowser was noncommittal. The Washington Post reported that on Sunday, city employees painted over the equals sign, which the protesters had originally made from a D.C. flag, but left the "defund the police" as is. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/def...rolls-holdouts
 

Running for Congress in New York, Mondaire Jones — a progressive political newcomer who appears poised to win his still-undecided election in a suburban district — articulated that vision last month, when he endorsed “defunding police and reinvesting this money in health, education, and alternatives to incarceration.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/u...he-police.html
 

Majority of Seattle council pledges to support Police Department defunding plan laid out by advocates https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-by-advocates/
 

• whether mobs are at least partially to be excused after looting and burning small businesses,

Minnesota attorney general Keith Ellison euphemized the riots even below the level of “protests” when he called them “distracting conduct” and, instead of calling for law enforcement to restore order, suggested that police shouldn’t do too much to stop the mobs:

When George Floyd was tragically killed, National conversation focused on justice for him, systematic change. Focus must return to where it belongs; distracting conduct must cease; Police must restrain their response. Protesters need to center #JusticeForFloyd

Keith Ellison (@keithellison) May 28, 2020 https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...urage-rioters/

 

New York's mayor, Bill de Blasio, is responsible for the city’s failure to protect the safety of its residents. As evidence of police abuse has mounted, he has averted his eyes, insisting Thursday that the Police Department uses as “light a touch as possible.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/o...-protests.html
 

In one of America’s largest suburban counties, the Democratic Party praised the recent riots that inflicted major damage on cities such as Minneapolis and Washington, D.C. As Josh Kraushaar of the National Journal notes, the Fairfax County Democratic Party said, “Riots are an integral part of the country’s march towards progress.” This inflammatory claim was remarkable, because it was made “in the affluent suburbs outside DC, an area known for its moderation.” https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp/f...praises-riots/
 

This policy of giving safe space to the violent was immortalized by former Baltimore Mayor Stephanie-Rawlings Blake, who allowed 2015 protests over the death in police custody of Freddie Gray to warp out of control. … “It’s a very delicate balancing act,” she babbled as Baltimore burned. “… We also gave those who wished to destroy space to do that as well. And we worked very hard to keep that balance and to put ourselves in the best position to de-escalate.” https://www.chicagotribune.com/colum...x6y-story.html
 

• which PC violation or expression of opinion requires banishment.

Former Obama administration Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro tweeted: "@GoyaFoods has been a staple of so many Latino households for generations. Now their CEO, Bob Unanue, is praising a president who villainizes and maliciously attacks Latinos for political gain. Americans should think twice before buying their products. #Goyaway." https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/goya...-alfredo-ortiz

[OldPhiKap]

Well, of course, we could disagree about the definition of “conventional politician.” An argument could be made that support for any of these matters (except the PC violation one) ipso facto renders a politician non-conventional, but I think that the following should qualify (the text is not my opinion but represents what the sources reported, some of which are opinionated):

{cites}

Thanks, that helps me understand the basis and source for those assertions. Perusal will need to be after hours.

[sagegrouse]

Well Swood, I misread this line:

'Whether mobs are at least partially to be excused after looting and burning small businesses,
Minnesota attorney general Keith Ellison euphemized the riots even below the level of “protests.”'

I first thought it said "mods."

[cspan37421]

seems like we're getting away from horse race stuff.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Well, of course, we could disagree about the definition of “conventional politician.” An argument could be made that support for any of these matters (except the PC violation one) ipso facto renders a politician non-conventional, but I think that the following should qualify (the text is not my opinion but represents what the sources reported, some of which are opinionated):

we have conventional politicians reserving judgment on
 

• whether statues of George Washington should be taken down,

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) told CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday that "we should listen to the argument" for removing George Washington statues. https://www.axios.com/tammy-duckwort...83f6f7ba6.html
 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday said "people will do what they do" in response to a question about the toppling of a statue of Christopher Columbus in Baltimore, adding that if a community doesn't want a statue, "the statue shouldn't be there." https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5...people-will-do
 

Just a few weeks ago, Pelosi expressed her indifference about the desecration of statues of St. Junipero Serra in California, despite her Catholic faith, saying in reference to the pioneering saint who served Native Americans, “I think we should all review the statues and make decisions.” https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/09...-what-they-do/
 

• whether police departments across the country should be uniformly defunded,

In their boldest statement since George Floyd’s killing, nine Minneapolis City Council members told a crowd Sunday that they will “begin the process of ending the Minneapolis Police Department.” https://www.startribune.com/mpls-cou.../?refresh=true
 

Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York said for the first time that he would divert city funds from the New York Police Department to youth and social services. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1269713565193252871
 

LA Mayor Slashes LAPD Budget As Calls To ‘Defund Police’ Slowly Pick Up Steam https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbre.../#29d264d1ba36
 

Washington, D.C., Mayor Murial Bowser on Friday dedicated "Black Lives Matter Plaza" on a street near the White House. Later, protesters added an equals sign and the words "defund the police" to the mural. When asked whether she would remove the unauthorized changes to her government's street mural on ABC's "This Week," Bowser was noncommittal. The Washington Post reported that on Sunday, city employees painted over the equals sign, which the protesters had originally made from a D.C. flag, but left the "defund the police" as is. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/def...rolls-holdouts
 

Running for Congress in New York, Mondaire Jones — a progressive political newcomer who appears poised to win his still-undecided election in a suburban district — articulated that vision last month, when he endorsed “defunding police and reinvesting this money in health, education, and alternatives to incarceration.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/u...he-police.html
 

Majority of Seattle council pledges to support Police Department defunding plan laid out by advocates https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-by-advocates/
 

• whether mobs are at least partially to be excused after looting and burning small businesses,

Minnesota attorney general Keith Ellison euphemized the riots even below the level of “protests” when he called them “distracting conduct” and, instead of calling for law enforcement to restore order, suggested that police shouldn’t do too much to stop the mobs:

When George Floyd was tragically killed, National conversation focused on justice for him, systematic change. Focus must return to where it belongs; distracting conduct must cease; Police must restrain their response. Protesters need to center #JusticeForFloyd

Keith Ellison (@keithellison) May 28, 2020 https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...urage-rioters/

 

New York's mayor, Bill de Blasio, is responsible for the city’s failure to protect the safety of its residents. As evidence of police abuse has mounted, he has averted his eyes, insisting Thursday that the Police Department uses as “light a touch as possible.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/o...-protests.html
 

In one of America’s largest suburban counties, the Democratic Party praised the recent riots that inflicted major damage on cities such as Minneapolis and Washington, D.C. As Josh Kraushaar of the National Journal notes, the Fairfax County Democratic Party said, “Riots are an integral part of the country’s march towards progress.” This inflammatory claim was remarkable, because it was made “in the affluent suburbs outside DC, an area known for its moderation.” https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp/f...praises-riots/
 

This policy of giving safe space to the violent was immortalized by former Baltimore Mayor Stephanie-Rawlings Blake, who allowed 2015 protests over the death in police custody of Freddie Gray to warp out of control. … “It’s a very delicate balancing act,” she babbled as Baltimore burned. “… We also gave those who wished to destroy space to do that as well. And we worked very hard to keep that balance and to put ourselves in the best position to de-escalate.” https://www.chicagotribune.com/colum...x6y-story.html
 

• which PC violation or expression of opinion requires banishment.

Former Obama administration Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro tweeted: "@GoyaFoods has been a staple of so many Latino households for generations. Now their CEO, Bob Unanue, is praising a president who villainizes and maliciously attacks Latinos for political gain. Americans should think twice before buying their products. #Goyaway." https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/goya...-alfredo-ortiz

Thanks for taking the time putting this post together, it was enlightening.

Last week the Trump administration initiated “Operation Legend” (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ag-b...y?id=71695453), with limited media coverage, in an attempt to address violent crime increases in major cities.
Maintaining law and order is one of his big campaign issues, and this looks like his first step towards showing inner city citizens, mainly minorities, he is serious about their concerns.

We’ll have to wait and see if this has any effect on those voters.

[cato]

Thanks for taking the time putting this post together, it was enlightening.

Last week the Trump administration initiated “Operation Legend” (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ag-b...y?id=71695453), with limited media coverage, in an attempt to address violent crime increases in major cities.
Maintaining law and order is one of his big campaign issues, and this looks like his first step towards showing inner city citizens, mainly minorities, he is serious about their concerns.

We’ll have to wait and see if this has any effect on those voters.

It will be interesting to see if this leads to any changes in the polling. It is not a change in strategy — Trump has been campaigning as a proponent of “Law and Order” since his inauguration — so the hope has to be that voters will change their minds.

I could see that happening in two ways: 1. people who previously did not favor Trump’s message come around to agree with it, or 2. People who have always agreed with Trump on this, but did not view the issue as particularly important, view the issue as more important.

From a poll race perspective, I would love to see Trump continue with the same strategies and not pivot. That will be more interesting as we watch the poll numbers.

[dudog84]

The Lincoln Project has an interesting take on Trump's status as the Law and Order President. Will be interesting to see who's messaging wins.

This is a distraction. I'll say it again. COVID, economy, race relations. Three-legged stool.

[cato]

The Lincoln Project has an interesting take on Trump's status as the Law and Order President. Will be interesting to see who's messaging wins.

This is a distraction. I'll say it again. COVID, economy, race relations. Three-legged stool.

I don’t disagree, but I would put “race relations” and “law and order” on the third leg as different aspects of an overall issue.

[jv001]

I think debates will be very important. Trump is hitting Biden hard on some of the comments he's made. Basically saying he is not medically sound to be President. The debate stage would be a good chance to prove Trump is wrong. It should be interesting.

[nmduke2001]

I think debates will be very important. Trump is hitting Biden hard on some of the comments he's made. Basically saying he is not medically sound to be President. The debate stage would be a good chance to prove Trump is wrong. It should be interesting.

Isn’t Biden’s reply simply to ask Trump to take a drink of water from a glass using one hand? If you’re going to challenge someone’s mental state, you should be prepared to have yours challenges as well.

[CDu]

Isn’t Biden’s reply simply to ask Trump to take a drink of water from a glass using one hand? If you’re going to challenge someone’s mental state, you should be prepared to have yours challenges as well.

Or ask him about his suggestion to inject disinfectant into the lungs...

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Or ask him about his suggestion to inject disinfectant into the lungs...

That’s not exactly what he suggested or advocated.

As a non medically trained person, in a press discussion, he was “floating the question” ... just “spitballing”...asking the doctors present that since they had just presented evidence disinfectants killed the virus almost on contact, was there any way they could be used as treatment?

Not surprising because, at the time, everybody was looking for a way to deal with the virus anywhere they could, and he’s no doctor.

Politifact, a generally left leaning fact checking web site, found that Trump never said anyone should inject anything.

[JasonEvans]

That’s not exactly what he suggested or advocated.

As a non medically trained person, in a press discussion, he was “floating the question” ... just “spitballing”...asking the doctors present that since they had just presented evidence disinfectants killed the virus almost on contact, was there any way they could be used as treatment?

Not surprising because, at the time, everybody was looking for a way to deal with the virus anywhere they could, and he’s no doctor.

Politifact, a generally left leaning fact checking web site, found that Trump never said anyone should inject anything.

As we have noted many, many times, Trump does not act like other Presidents. I don't say that to be critical, merely as an observation (one which many on all sides of the political spectrum have made).

So, with that said, I feel pretty comfortable saying that I don't think there is any other president who would "spitball" ideas at a press briefing. I wonder if part of the "poor treatment" Trump gets from the media is that the media really does not know how to deal with a President who is so unconventional, a president who just says whatever is on his mind without really considering the ramifications of those thoughts. The media treats each of these utterances by Trump as something significant -- as potential policy -- when Trump really means them as just random musings with no real intent of actually acting on them without bouncing it off more experts and giving it more thought.

It is also worth noting that it is easy to get confused about what Trump is really saying when he is constantly riffing and just musing off the top of his head. His statements are not nearly as clear as they would be if they were prepared and careful. That may account for what Wheat observed above about Trump never actually telling folks to inject disinfectants, just him suggesting that it might be something worth investigating.

Anyway, all this would explain a lot about why Trump feels the media is unfair to him and why the media seems to constantly be shocked and outraged at Trump's behavior.

Of course, one could look at it from another side and say that America is not well served by a President who is not careful with his words; that we need a leader who knows that words matter and is more thoughtful before speaking. And, to bring this full circle, that is one of the things the American people will decide when they got to the polls this fall.

-Jason "I don't feel like the media really said Trump was actually advising people to inject disinfectant, that was more a Twitter/meme kinda thing" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Just want to record the numbers so we can track them over time.

Here, at 1am on 7/14 are the 538 polling averages in the "swing states" --

National:
Biden +8.9

Michigan:
Biden +9.4

Nevada:
Biden +8.3

New Hampshire:
Biden +8.0

Wisconsin:
Biden +7.8

Pennsylvania:
Biden +7.3

Florida:
Biden +6.0

North Carolina:
Biden +3.2

Ohio:
Biden +2.3

Arizona:
Biden +2.2

Georgia:
Biden +0.9

Texas:
Trump +0.1

Iowa:
Trump +0.6

[CameronBornAndBred]

A few folks on TV have been highlighting a poll today showing that Biden is leading in Texas(!) by 5 points. And as JE noted above, aggregate polling shows that state as a statistical dead heat. Nationally, Biden has a very healthy lead.
One of the talking heads brought up a name from the past, and it made me go look it up.
To Joe Biden, Michael Dukakis is waving a cautious hello.

A poll conducted on July 21 and 22 of 1988 found that Dukakis had expanded the size of his lead over Bush to 17 points, with 55% of voters surveyed saying they would prefer Dukakis to win, compared to 38% for Bush.[24] His lead soon began to shrink, however. For example, on July 30, Dukakis criticized the Reagan administration's handling of ethical issues,[25] to which President Reagan himself responded by describing Dukakis as an "invalid", after which his poll numbers dropped by 5 points overnight.[4] By August 11, Dukakis' lead over Bush had shrunk to 7 points,[26] and by August 24, Bush had gained a 4-point lead over Dukakis. Of the dramatic shift in Dukakis' poll numbers, Mervin Field said, "I have never seen anything like this, this kind of swing in favorability ratings, ever since I have seen polls, going back to 1936."[27] Later that year, after the second Bush-Dukakis debate occurred on October 13, Dukakis' numbers dropped by 7 points that night, largely due to his emotionless response to a question about whether he would support the death penalty for someone if they raped and murdered his wife, Kitty Dukakis.[28]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michae...ntial_campaign

[Wheat/"/"/"]

As we have noted many, many times, Trump does not act like other Presidents. I don't say that to be critical, merely as an observation (one which many on all sides of the political spectrum have made).

So, with that said, I feel pretty comfortable saying that I don't think there is any other president who would "spitball" ideas at a press briefing. I wonder if part of the "poor treatment" Trump gets from the media is that the media really does not know how to deal with a President who is so unconventional, a president who just says whatever is on his mind without really considering the ramifications of those thoughts. The media treats each of these utterances by Trump as something significant -- as potential policy -- when Trump really means them as just random musings with no real intent of actually acting on them without bouncing it off more experts and giving it more thought.

It is also worth noting that it is easy to get confused about what Trump is really saying when he is constantly riffing and just musing off the top of his head. His statements are not nearly as clear as they would be if they were prepared and careful. That may account for what Wheat observed above about Trump never actually telling folks to inject disinfectants, just him suggesting that it might be something worth investigating.

Anyway, all this would explain a lot about why Trump feels the media is unfair to him and why the media seems to constantly be shocked and outraged at Trump's behavior.

Of course, one could look at it from another side and say that America is not well served by a President who is not careful with his words; that we need a leader who knows that words matter and is more thoughtful before speaking. And, to bring this full circle, that is one of the things the American people will decide when they got to the polls this fall.

-Jason "I don't feel like the media really said Trump was actually advising people to inject disinfectant, that was more a Twitter/meme kinda thing" Evans

Right, the internet was, well, the internet. But I think you’re being a little kind to the media, many stroked that narrative.

Yea, it’s pretty clear he’s not a very good politician, he won in spite of himself. I don’t think he’s smart enough to use his confusing and often conflicting comments on purpose to shape a message, maybe I’m wrong. I think he just has an intuitive feel for what many people want, and then he just throws things out there, reads the reactions, and then decides his course of action after the dust settles.

Non conforming, but effective.

There are many conservatives who wish he was not as divisive and more politically correct, but we all know by now that’s not gonna happen. His strength lies in the issues he embraces.

He’s definitely loose with his words, but, like them or not, he’s been pretty straight forward with his policies and he’s backed them up with actions.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

A few folks on TV have been highlighting a poll today showing that Biden is leading in Texas(!) by 5 points. And as JE noted above, aggregate polling shows that state as a statistical dead heat. Nationally, Biden has a very healthy lead.
One of the talking heads brought up a name from the past, and it made me go look it up.
To Joe Biden, Michael Dukakis is waving a cautious hello.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michae...ntial_campaign

For the younger crowd, here’s a good read on what happened to Dukakis in that campaign. One photo op gone bad and he tanked, pun intended.

It was a lesson in “it ain’t over till it’s over“ in politics.

[budwom]

Just want to record the numbers so we can track them over time.

Here, at 1am on 7/14 are the 538 polling averages in the "swing states" --

National:
Biden +8.9

Michigan:
Biden +9.4

Nevada:
Biden +8.3

New Hampshire:
Biden +8.0

Wisconsin:
Biden +7.8

Pennsylvania:
Biden +7.3

Florida:
Biden +6.0

North Carolina:
Biden +3.2

Ohio:
Biden +2.3

Arizona:
Biden +2.2

Georgia:
Biden +0.9

Texas:
Trump +0.1

Iowa:
Trump +0.6

Along these lines, I have been reading MANY articles in which GOP backers are noting that the polls were wrong last time, so they're wrong this time. I guess we'll see...personally I don't see Joe as having anywhere near the negativity ratings that HRC had, at least not yet, which for me was, by far, the biggest factor in the '16 race.

p.s. wire service article said today that in aggregate, polls predicted HRC to win popular vote by 3 pts, she won by 2.1 pts...but obviously key factor was losing the key MW states by combined 77k votes...that's threading the needle.

[OldPhiKap]

Along these lines, I have been reading MANY articles in which GOP backers are noting that the polls were wrong last time, so they're wrong this time. I guess we'll see...personally I don't see Joe as having anywhere near the negativity ratings that HRC had, at least not yet, which for me was, by far, the biggest factor in the '16 race.

p.s. wire service article said today that in aggregate, polls predicted HRC to win popular vote by 3 pts, she won by 2.1 pts...but obviously key factor was losing the key MW states by combined 77k votes...that's threading the needle.

Dukakis had a massive lead over Pappy Bush, until he suddenly didn’t. Lots of time left.

Having said that, the cement seems pretty hard right now and those opposing Trump are pretty determined. He did thread the needle last time as you say, and it seems like he has made his second act more difficult by his hard- base strategy/personality.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Dukakis had a massive lead over Pappy Bush, until he suddenly didn’t. Lots of time left.

Having said that, the cement seems pretty hard right now and those opposing Trump are pretty determined. He did thread the needle last time as you say, and it seems like he has made his second act more difficult by his hard- base strategy/personality.

I agree. There aren't many people who are changing their minds at this point. I think a lot of efforts are being focused on voter enablement/registration and voter suppression. And making sure that the few people who don't have a strong opinion but do have a lean are leaning strongly enough that if it is pouring rain on election day and there is a long line, they care enough to still make the trip to the polls.

And lawyering up for a lot of challenges and drama in November (and likely December).

I would also love to see data on who is buying ad time in battleground states for the home stretch. I would think that those slots are getting bought up quickly at this point with less than four months to go, particularly in states that also have close down-ballot races. Has Bloomberg started spending yet?