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  1. #121
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    While I think it's gonna be bumper cars for the debates before Iowa, this will get winnowed down pretty quickly I think. The first month of Democratic primaries (tentative, I assume):

    Mon, Feb 3 (2020)
    Iowa Caucuses

    Tue, Feb 11
    New Hampshire

    Sat, Feb 22
    Nevada Caucus (D)

    Sat, Feb 29
    South Carolina (D)



    Tue, Mar 3
    Alabama
    California
    Massachusetts
    North Carolina
    Oklahoma
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Vermont
    Virginia

    Corrected -- it is 2020, not 2019. I scared myself.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  2. #122
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    I look forward to nipping over to NH to see some of the circus next year...without getting into politics (too much) the Demo primaries allow generally more access to events...GOP last time around had a whole lot more restricted access "rallies."
    Also get to regard New Hamsterites in their native habitat...

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Also get to regard New Hamsterites in their native habitat...
    Is that a Habitrail with an igloo?
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    I am all for tradition and such but I don't know why the same states get to have the earliest primaries and thus theoretically have undue influence on the nomination process. For example, being the leading Democrat in SC is really pointless. Dems are never going to win SC in a presidential election so the opinions of SC Democrats should not be that influential - I would be much more concerned about who plays well in the purple states.

  5. #125
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    The field thins...

    Billionaire Tom Steyer, a vocal critic of Trump who has repeatedly called for impeachment, is announcing that he will not run for President in 2020. I'm not sure he was that much of a contender, but his money could have made for an interesting campaign.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  6. #126
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The field thins...

    Billionaire Tom Steyer, a vocal critic of Trump who has repeatedly called for impeachment, is announcing that he will not run for President in 2020. I'm not sure he was that much of a contender, but his money could have made for an interesting campaign.
    Towards whom will he throw his money?

    -jk

  7. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I am all for tradition and such but I don't know why the same states get to have the earliest primaries and thus theoretically have undue influence on the nomination process. For example, being the leading Democrat in SC is really pointless. Dems are never going to win SC in a presidential election so the opinions of SC Democrats should not be that influential - I would be much more concerned about who plays well in the purple states.
    Good question. My understanding of the current primary map is that it is done to see who has the broadest appeal. I think it is akin to mixing up your conference schedule with some "true road games" early on to see how the candidates poll against different racial, social, and economic demographics. If the first 5 states to vote were all "home court" states, for example, a candidate that was popular there might build enough momentum to push out a candidate with more mainstream and moderate appeal.

    IIRC, Bernie Sanders was pretty even or slightly better than HRC in states where Dems were predominately white and in states with caucuses. But he lost handily in states where the Democratic base had high concentrations of minority voters. According to this article, 70% of African Americans preferred Hillary to Bernie, and it was one of the main reasons she won.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/...rimary-n580996

    Whichever states go first will always have a greater influence on the process, which is why many have pushed their way towards the front of the line. The interesting question is which voters whose preferred candidate didn't win would support the eventual nominee and which would just stay home. And I think that's key to whether the current primary strategy needs to be adjusted.
    "There can BE only one."

  8. #128
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Towards whom will he throw his money?

    -jk
    Not sure he has to throw his cash to anyone, yet instead simply keep throwing it against Trump. And that seems to be his continued plan. His mission is to see the President impeached, and he has pledged $40M for the cause.

    “Most people come to Iowa around this time to announce a campaign for president,” Steyer said in his prepared remarks. “But I am proud to be here to announce that I will do whatever it takes, for as long as it takes, to remove a president.”

    Among Steyer's goals: a "multi-million dollar digital initiative aimed at informing the public and members of Congress about the 10 impeachable offenses that Trump has already committed," town halls across the country, and even an "impeachment summit in late January that will bring more than 250 supporters from across the country to D.C. together to learn about historical precedent for impeachment."
    His constant barrage, without the added burden of being a candidate himself, could very well be a big thorn in Trump's side, especially if voters listen.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tom...cy-spokeswoman
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  9. #129
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I am all for tradition and such but I don't know why the same states get to have the earliest primaries and thus theoretically have undue influence on the nomination process. For example, being the leading Democrat in SC is really pointless. Dems are never going to win SC in a presidential election so the opinions of SC Democrats should not be that influential - I would be much more concerned about who plays well in the purple states.
    Here are a couple of reasons, CNC. (a) One advantage with the four early states is that they are individually and collectively small -- under-funded candidates can compete much better than in larger states like FL, CA, TX, NY, etc. (Also, is an advantage for PAC's, who can see how their candidates perform while conserving resources). (b) Plus, they represent four different parts of the country.

    Among many problems -- why the hell have caucuses? Colorado, my home, is a caucus state. In 2008 it was -3 and snowing when our county held its caucuses. Turnout is ridiculously low and pretty much limited to the hardcore, not necessarily representative of party voters.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  10. #130
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    [*]Lesser known politicians who have expressed some interest in running:Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
    She's now announced.
    Rep. Tulsi Gabbard said Friday she will run for president in 2020.

    "I have decided to run and will be making a formal announcement within the next week," the Hawaii Democrat told CNN's Van Jones during an interview slated to air at 7 p.m. Saturday on CNN's "The Van Jones Show."
    Gabbard, an Iraq War veteran, currently serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She is the first American Samoan and the first Hindu member of Congress.
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/11/polit...nes/index.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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